[Poland General Election]2023 March Projection / Prediction / Forecast

MARCH ’23 PROJECTION

1. _Globe Elections UN Video
2. _HEADLINE
3. _SEAT PROJECTION
4. _VOTE SHARE PROJECTION
5. _FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
6. _RESEARCH INFORMATION
7. _Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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_Globe Elections UN Video

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_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in Poland, United Rights will likely remain the largest party, but no longer with a majority, while Civic Coalition maintains its strength. There is a three way race for the third place between The Left,Poland 2050, Confederation.

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_SEAT PROJECTION

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 177 Seats

(+7 From Feb ’23, -58 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Big Tent) : 142 Seats

(+10 From Feb ’23, +8 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 40 Seats

(-8 From Feb ’23, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 37 Seats

(-4 From Feb ’23, +26 From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 36 Seats

(-6 From Feb ’23, -13 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 26 Seats

(+1 From Feb ’23, -3 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Right-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, NEW PARTY)

Agreement + AGROunion(P+AU / Center-Right Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

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_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 36.16%

(+1.10pp From Feb ’23, -7.43pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Big Tent) : 31.02%

(+2.35pp From Feb ’23, +3.62pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 8.42%

(-1.30pp From Feb ’23, -4.14pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 7.87%

(-2.34pp From Feb ’23, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 7.59%

(-0.38pp From Feb ’23, +0.79pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 5.29%

(+0.04pp From Feb ’23, -3.26pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Right-wing Big Tent) : 1.23%

(+0.13pp From Feb ’23, NEW PARTY)

Agreement + AGROunion(P+AU / Center-Right Big Tent) : 0.60%

(+0.27pp From Feb ’23, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.82%

(+0.13pp From Feb ’23, +0.72pp From Last Election)

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_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

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_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Poland General Election February Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 6 polling data(5,860 unweighted / 3,886 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 2/20 and 2/27.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

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_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD

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[Estonia General Election]2023 EXCEL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

EXCEL ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

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_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s EXCEL Projection in Estonia, Reform Party retain its position as largest party, and Kaja Kallas would likely remain Prime Minister after support from current governing partners of Social Democrats & Fatherland, plus Estonia 200.

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_SEAT PROJECTION

Reform Party(RFM / Lean-Right) : 31 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Center Party(KESK / Lean-Left) : 18 Seats

(-8 From Last Election)

Conservative People’s Party(EKRE / Far-Right) : 18 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Estonia 200(E200 / Center) : 15 Seats

(+15 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SDE / Center-Left) : 11 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Fatherland Party(IE / Center-Right) : 8 Seats

(-4 From Last Election)

The Right(PP / Right-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Green Party(ROH / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(MUUD / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

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_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

Reform Party(RFM / Lean-Right) : 28.77%

(-0.17pp From Last Election)

Center Party(KESK / Lean-Left) : 16.83%

(-6.27pp From Last Election)

Conservative People’s Party(EKRE / Far-Right) : 16.83%

(-0.93pp From Last Election)

Estonia 200(E200 / Center) : 13.83%

(+9.47pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SDE / Center-Left) : 9.81%

(-0.03pp From Last Election)

Fatherland Party(IE / Center-Right) : 7.88%

(-3.57pp From Last Election)

The Right(PP / Right-wing) : 2.28%

(NEW PARTY)

Green Party(ROH / Center-Left) : 1.92%

(+0.10pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(MUUD / Mixed) : 1.86%

(-0.51pp From Last Election)

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_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

2023-estonia-general-election-excel-projectionDownload

2019-estonia-general-election-excel-projectionDownload

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K6GM652hNfKNmbqfAZuVapjSpatIYyaZ1dR8JkiIHlE/

SPREADSHEET – Estonia GE2023 EXCEL Projection

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_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Estonia General Election EXCEL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 8 polling data(18,394 sample size) fieldwork done between 2/15 and 3/2.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

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_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBAL ELECTION PROJECTION DASHBOARD

[Poland General Election]2023 February Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FEBRUARY ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

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_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Poland, United Rights will remain the largest party, but no longer with a majority, while Civic Coalition maintains its strength. There is a three way race for the third place between Poland 2050, The Left, Confederation, and Polish Coalition is back above the threshold of 5% for the first time in 2 years.

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_SEAT PROJECTION

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 170 Seats

(-65 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Big Tent) : 132 Seats

(-2 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 48 Seats

(NEW PARTY)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 42 Seats

(-7 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 41 Seats

(+30 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 26 Seats

(-4 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Right-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Agreement + AGROunion(P+AU / Center-Right Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

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_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.06%

(-8.53pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Big Tent) : 28.67%

(+1.27pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 10.21%

(NEW PARTY)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 9.72%

(-2.84pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 7.97%

(+1.17pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 5.25%

(-3.30pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Right-wing Big Tent) : 1.10%

(NEW PARTY)

Agreement + AGROunion(P+AU / Center-Right Big Tent) : 0.33%

(NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.69%

(+0.59pp From Last Election)

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_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

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_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Poland General Election February Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 7 polling data(7,313 unweighted / 5,204 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/23 and 1/30.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

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_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD

[Poland General Election]2021 December Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

DECEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s December Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. With Donald Tusk’s return, Civic Coalition has managed to make a big bounce and Poland 2050 is down to their starting point. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 183 Seats

(-1 From Oct ’21, -52 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 117 Seats

(-8 From Oct ’21, -17 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 66 Seats

(+2 From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 53 Seats

(+4 From Oct ’21, +42 From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 39 Seats

(+2 From Oct ’21, -10 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 34.41%

(-1.30pp From Oct ’21, -9.18pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 24.81%

(-1.42pp From Oct ’21, -2.52pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 14.16%

(+0.11pp From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 11.28%

(+0.46pp From Oct ’21, +4.47pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 7.95%

(+0.38pp From Oct ’21, -4.62pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.71%

(+0.94pp From Oct ’21, -3.85pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.54%

(+0.01pp From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.39%

(-0.03pp From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.75%

(+0.85pp From Oct ’21, -1.01pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 37.39%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 24.49%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 13.97%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.18%

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 8.22%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.86%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.56%

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.43%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.90%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD

[Poland General Election]2021 October Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

OCTOBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s October Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. With Donald Tusk’s return, Civic Coalition has managed to make a big bounce and is now up to just under last election. Poland 2050 is almost down to their starting point. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 184 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, -51 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 125 Seats

(-2 From Sep ’21, -9 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 64 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 49 Seats

(+2 From Sep ’21, +38 From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 37 Seats

(-1 From Sep ’21, -12 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+1 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.71%

(-0.29pp From Sep ’21, -7.88pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 26.23%

(-1.04pp From Sep ’21, -1.10pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 14.05%

(+0.23pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 10.82%

(+0.27pp From Sep ’21, +4.01pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 7.57%

(-1.09pp From Sep ’21, -5.00pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.77%

(+0.99pp From Sep ’21, -4.79pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.53%

(+0.07pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.42%

(+0.20pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.90%

(+0.66pp From Sep ’21, -1.86pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 38.59%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 25.75%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 13.80%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.76%

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 7.77%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.87%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.54%

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.46%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.46%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD

[Poland General Election]2021 September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

SEPTEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. With Donald Tusk’s return, Civic Coalition has managed to make a big bounce and is now up to around the last election. Poland 2050 is almost down to their starting point. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 184 Seats

(+16 From Aug ’21, -51 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 127 Seats

(-4 From Aug ’21, -7 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 64 Seats

(-13 From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 47 Seats

(+1 From Aug ’21, +36 From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 38 Seats

(+2 From Aug ’21, -11 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(-2 From Aug ’21, -1 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(NEW ENTRY, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 36.00%

(+2.45pp From Aug ’21, -7.59pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 27.27%

(-0.47pp From Aug ’21, -0.06pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 13.82%

(-2.57pp From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 10.55%

(+1.47pp From Aug ’21, +3.74pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 8.66%

(+1.52pp From Aug ’21, -3.91pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 2.78%

(-0.71pp From Aug ’21, -5.78pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.46%

(-0.22pp From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.22%

(NEW ENTRY, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.24%

(-1.69pp From Aug ’21, -2.52pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 38.76%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 26.67%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 13.51%

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 8.86%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.51%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 2.85%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.47%

reement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.24%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.13%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD

[Poland General Election]2021 August Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

AUGUST ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. With Donald Tusk’s return, Civic Coalition has managed to make a big bounce and is now up to around the last election results. Poland 2050 is down to third place once again. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 168 Seats

(+4 From Jul ’21, -67 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 131 Seats

(+43 From Jul ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 77 Seats

(-30 From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 46 Seats

(-7 From Jul ’21, +35 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 36 Seats

(-5 From Jul ’21, -13 From Last Election)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 2 Seats

(+1 From Jul ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 33.55%

(+1.02pp From Jul ’21, -10.04pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 27.74%

(+8.39pp From Jul ’21, +0.41pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 16.39%

(-5.85pp From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.08%

(-2.07pp From Jul ’21, +2.27pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 7.14%

(-1.10pp From Jul ’21, -5.43pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.49%

(-1.32pp From Jul ’21, -5.07pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.68%

(-0.05pp From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.93%

(+0.98pp From Jul ’21, -0.83pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 36.42%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 27.36%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 16.16%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 7.39%

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 7.37%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.60%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.70%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.00%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD

[Poland General Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s Jul;y Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is likely to be taken by Szymon Hołownia‘s Poland 2050. Mostly due to their rise, Civic Coalition is now below 100 seats. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is now just below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 164 Seats

(-17 From Jun ’21, -71 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 107 Seats

(-6 From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 88 Seats

(+12 From Jun ’21, -46 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 53 Seats

(+9 From Jun ’21, +42 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 41 Seats

(-1 From Jun ’21, -8 From Last Election)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 32.53%

(-2.73pp From Jun ’21, -11.06pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 22.24%

(-2.48pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 19.35%

(+3.39pp From Jun ’21, -7.98pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 11.05%

(+2.03pp From Jun ’21, +4.34pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 8.24%

(-1.03pp From Jun ’21, -4.33pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.81%

(+0.50pp From Jun ’21, -3.75pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.73%

(-0.09pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.95%

(+0.41pp From Jun ’21, -0.15pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.27%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.91%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 19.06%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.06%

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 8.49%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.96%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.76%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.49%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD

[Poland General Election]2021 June Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JUNE ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is likely to be taken by Poland 2050, a new party led by Szymon Hołownia. Due to Poland 2050’s rise, Civic Coalition is now far below 100 seats. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is currently below the 5% threshold and therefore won’t be able to obtain any seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 181 Seats

(+16 From May ’21, -54 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 113 Seats

(+10 From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 76 Seats

(-12 From May ’21, -58 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 44 Seats

(-5 From May ’21, +33 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 42 Seats

(-13 From May ’21, -7 From Last Election)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+1 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.26%

(+2.64pp From May ’21, -8.33pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 24.72%

(+3.07pp From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 15.96%

(-2.96pp From May ’21, -11.37pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 9.27%

(-1.34pp From May ’21, -3.30pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.12%

(-2.22pp From May ’21, +2.31pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.31%

(+0.48pp From May ’21, -4.25pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.82%

(+0.20pp From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.54%

(+0.13pp From May ’21, -0.56pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 37.91%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 24.15%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 15.59%

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 9.47%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 7.35%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.41%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.84%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.28%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

[Poland General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is likely to be taken by Poland 2050, a new party led by Szymon Hołownia. Mostly due to Poland 2050’s rise, Civic Coalition is now below 100 seats. On the other hand, The Left is up on the seat level but not on the vote level, and Confederation is significantly up. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore won’t have any seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 165 Seats

(+3 From Apr ’21, -70 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 103 Seats

(-3 From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 88 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, -46 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 55 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 49 Seats

(+1 From Apr ’21, +38 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Apr ’21, -1 From Last Election)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 32.62%

(+2.38pp From Apr ’21, -10.97pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.65%

(+0.16pp From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 18.92%

(+0.44pp From Apr ’21, -8.41pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 11.34%

(+0.63pp From Apr ’21, +4.53pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.61%

(+0.42pp From Apr ’21, -1.96pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.83%

(-1.07pp From Apr ’21, -4.73pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.62%

(-1.38pp From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.41%

(-1.58pp From Apr ’21, -0.69pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.27%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.26%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 18.59%

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.91%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.18%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.94%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.64%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.21%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wlnJhq1QWvIa7OS0FEXUk8N5Z5P7_eVIPsTEg89_FsM/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/