FINAL ’23 PROJECTION

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Poland, United Right is Edging over Civic Coalition, and three parties are still closely contesting for the third place.

_SEAT PROJECTION

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 183 Seats

(-6 From Oct ’23, -52 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 135 Seats

(+1 From Oct ’23, +1 From Last Election)

Third Way(TD / Lean-Right) : 50 Seats

(+5 From Oct ’23, +20 From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Center-Left) : 44 Seats

(+2 From Oct ’23, -4 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 44 Seats

(-1 From Oct ’23, +33 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Center) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Oct ’23, +1 From Last Election)

Nonpartisan Local Government Activists(BS / Left-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’23, +0 From Last Election)

There Is One Poland(PJJ / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’23, NEW PARTY)

Peace & Prosperity Movement / Normal Country (RDiP / NK / Far-Right) : 0 Seat / 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’23, NEW PARTY)

Anti Party / Repair Poland Movement(AP / RNP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat / 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’23, NEW PARTY)

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 36.11%

(-1.64pp From Oct ’23, -7.49pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 29.75%

(-0.30pp From Oct ’23, +2.35pp From Last Election)

Third Way(TD / Lean-Right) : 11.11%

(+1.27pp From Oct ’23, +2.56pp From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Center-Left) : 10.23%

(+0.77pp From Oct ’23, -2.33pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.19%

(-0.46pp From Oct ’23, +2.28pp From Last Election)

Nonpartisan Local Government Activists(BS / Left-wing Big Tent) : 2.60%

(-0.14pp From Oct ’23, +1.79pp From Last Election)

There Is One Poland(PJJ / Far-Right) : 0.50%

(+0.22pp From Oct ’23, NEW PARTY)

German Minority(MN / Center) : 0.40%

(+0.20pp From Oct ’23, +0.27pp From Last Election)

Peace & Prosperity Movement / Normal Country (RDiP / NK / Far-Right) : 0.07% / 0.03%

(+0.05pp From Oct ’23, NEW PARTY)

Anti Party / Repair Poland Movement(AP / RNP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 0.00% / 0.01%

(+0.00pp From Oct ’23, NEW PARTY)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL Oct /RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Poland General Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 19 polling data(31,019 unweighted / 20,643 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/6 and 10/13.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD

Europe, Poland

[Poland General Election]2023 September Projection / Prediction / Forecast

9th Sep 20239th Sep 2023 mglee05

SEPTEMBER ’23 PROJECTION

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in Poland, United Right is Edging over Civic Coalition as the official campaigning period begins.

_SEAT PROJECTION

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 187 Seats

(+14 From Jul ’23, -48 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 136 Seats

(-7 From Jul ’23, +2 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 56 Seats

(-7 From Jul ’23, +45 From Last Election)

Third Way(TD / Lean-Right) : 41 Seats

(-3 From Jul ’23, +11 From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Center-Left) : 38 Seats

(+2 From Jul ’23, -11 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Center) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Nonpartisan Local Government Activists(BS / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’23, +0 From Last Election)

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 37.86%

(+2.43pp From Jul ’23, -5.73pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 30.49%

(-1.11pp From Jul ’23, +3.09pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 12.01%

(-1.02pp From Jul ’23, +5.21pp From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Center-Left) : 9.45%

(+1.00pp From Jul ’23, -3.11pp From Last Election)

Third Way(TD / Lean-Right) : 9.23%

(-1.04pp From Jul ’23, +0.68pp From Last Election)

Nonpartisan Local Government Activists(BS / Big Tent) : 0.50%

(-0.34pp From Jul ’23, -0.28pp From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Center) : 0.25%

(+0.04pp From Jul ’23, +0.07pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(INNE / Mixed) : 0.21%

(+0.04pp From Jun ’23, +0.07pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Poland General Election September Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 7 polling data(6,974 unweighted / 5,724 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 8/24 and 8/31.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD

Europe, Poland

[Poland General Election]2023 July Projection / Prediction / Forecast

31st Jul 2023 mglee05

JULY ’23 PROJECTION

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s July Projection in Poland, it is Too Close To Call between United Right & Civic Coalition. Confederation emerges as the third force, with Third Way & The Left follow after.

_SEAT PROJECTION

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 173 Seats

(-3 From Jun ’23, -62 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 143 Seats

(+15 From Jun ’23, +9 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 63 Seats

(+16 From Jun ’23, +52 From Last Election)

Third Way(TD / Lean-Right) : 44 Seats

(-18 From Jun ’23, +14 From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Center-Left) : 36 Seats

(-9 From Jun ’23, -13 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Center) : 1 Seat

(-1 From Jun ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Nonpartisan Local Government Activists(BS / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’23, +0 From Last Election)

AGROunion(AU / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’23, NEW PARTY)

Kukiz 15(K15 / Right-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’23, NEW PARTY)

Other Parties(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’23, +0 From Last Election)

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.21%

(-0.47pp From Jun ’23, -8.38pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 30.69%

(+2.55pp From Jun ’23, +3.29pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 13.03%

(+2.46pp From Jun ’23, +6.23pp From Last Election)

Third Way(TD / Lean-Right) : 10.27% – I/C POR

(-3.39pp From Jun ’23, +1.72pp From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Center-Left) : 8.45%

(-1.12pp From Jun ’23, -4.11pp From Last Election)

AGROunion(AU / Big Tent) : 0.91%

(+0.28pp From Jun ’23, NEW PARTY)

Nonpartisan Local Government Activists(BS / Big Tent) : 0.84%

(+0.05pp From Jun ’23, +0.06pp From Last Election)

Kukiz 15(K15 / Right-wing Big Tent) : 0.22%

(-0.13pp From Jun ’23, NEW PARTY)

German Minority(MN / Center) : 0.21%

(-0.13pp From Jun ’23, +0.03pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(INNE / Mixed) : 0.17%

(-0.10pp From Jun ’23, +0.03pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Poland General Election July Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 8 polling data(8,260 unweighted / 6,219 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 6/23 and 6/30.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD

Europe, Poland

[Poland General Election]2023 March Projection / Prediction / Forecast

29th Mar 202329th Mar 2023 mglee05

MARCH ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in Poland, United Rights will likely remain the largest party, but no longer with a majority, while Civic Coalition maintains its strength. There is a three way race for the third place between The Left,Poland 2050, Confederation.

_SEAT PROJECTION

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 177 Seats

(+7 From Feb ’23, -58 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Big Tent) : 142 Seats

(+10 From Feb ’23, +8 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 40 Seats

(-8 From Feb ’23, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 37 Seats

(-4 From Feb ’23, +26 From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 36 Seats

(-6 From Feb ’23, -13 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 26 Seats

(+1 From Feb ’23, -3 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Right-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, NEW PARTY)

Agreement + AGROunion(P+AU / Center-Right Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 36.16%

(+1.10pp From Feb ’23, -7.43pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Big Tent) : 31.02%

(+2.35pp From Feb ’23, +3.62pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 8.42%

(-1.30pp From Feb ’23, -4.14pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 7.87%

(-2.34pp From Feb ’23, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 7.59%

(-0.38pp From Feb ’23, +0.79pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 5.29%

(+0.04pp From Feb ’23, -3.26pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Right-wing Big Tent) : 1.23%

(+0.13pp From Feb ’23, NEW PARTY)

Agreement + AGROunion(P+AU / Center-Right Big Tent) : 0.60%

(+0.27pp From Feb ’23, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.82%

(+0.13pp From Feb ’23, +0.72pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Poland General Election February Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 6 polling data(5,860 unweighted / 3,886 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 2/20 and 2/27.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD

Europe, Poland

[Estonia General Election]2023 EXCEL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

4th Mar 20234th Mar 2023 mglee05

EXCEL ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s EXCEL Projection in Estonia, Reform Party retain its position as largest party, and Kaja Kallas would likely remain Prime Minister after support from current governing partners of Social Democrats & Fatherland, plus Estonia 200.

_SEAT PROJECTION

Reform Party(RFM / Lean-Right) : 31 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Center Party(KESK / Lean-Left) : 18 Seats

(-8 From Last Election)

Conservative People’s Party(EKRE / Far-Right) : 18 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Estonia 200(E200 / Center) : 15 Seats

(+15 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SDE / Center-Left) : 11 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Fatherland Party(IE / Center-Right) : 8 Seats

(-4 From Last Election)

The Right(PP / Right-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Green Party(ROH / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(MUUD / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

Reform Party(RFM / Lean-Right) : 28.77%

(-0.17pp From Last Election)

Center Party(KESK / Lean-Left) : 16.83%

(-6.27pp From Last Election)

Conservative People’s Party(EKRE / Far-Right) : 16.83%

(-0.93pp From Last Election)

Estonia 200(E200 / Center) : 13.83%

(+9.47pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SDE / Center-Left) : 9.81%

(-0.03pp From Last Election)

Fatherland Party(IE / Center-Right) : 7.88%

(-3.57pp From Last Election)

The Right(PP / Right-wing) : 2.28%

(NEW PARTY)

Green Party(ROH / Center-Left) : 1.92%

(+0.10pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(MUUD / Mixed) : 1.86%

(-0.51pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

2023-estonia-general-election-excel-projection Download

2019-estonia-general-election-excel-projection Download

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K6GM652hNfKNmbqfAZuVapjSpatIYyaZ1dR8JkiIHlE/

SPREADSHEET – Estonia GE2023 EXCEL Projection

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Estonia General Election EXCEL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 8 polling data(18,394 sample size) fieldwork done between 2/15 and 3/2.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBAL ELECTION PROJECTION DASHBOARD

Europe, Poland

[Poland General Election]2023 February Projection / Prediction / Forecast

23rd Feb 202323rd Feb 2023 mglee05

FEBRUARY ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Poland, United Rights will remain the largest party, but no longer with a majority, while Civic Coalition maintains its strength. There is a three way race for the third place between Poland 2050, The Left, Confederation, and Polish Coalition is back above the threshold of 5% for the first time in 2 years.

_SEAT PROJECTION

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 170 Seats

(-65 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Big Tent) : 132 Seats

(-2 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 48 Seats

(NEW PARTY)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 42 Seats

(-7 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 41 Seats

(+30 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 26 Seats

(-4 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Right-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Agreement + AGROunion(P+AU / Center-Right Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.06%

(-8.53pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Big Tent) : 28.67%

(+1.27pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 10.21%

(NEW PARTY)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 9.72%

(-2.84pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 7.97%

(+1.17pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 5.25%

(-3.30pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Right-wing Big Tent) : 1.10%

(NEW PARTY)

Agreement + AGROunion(P+AU / Center-Right Big Tent) : 0.33%

(NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.69%

(+0.59pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Poland General Election February Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 7 polling data(7,313 unweighted / 5,204 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/23 and 1/30.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD

Europe, Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 December Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

21st Dec 202113th Sep 2022 mglee05

DECEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s December Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. With Donald Tusk’s return, Civic Coalition has managed to make a big bounce and Poland 2050 is down to their starting point. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 183 Seats

(-1 From Oct ’21, -52 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 117 Seats

(-8 From Oct ’21, -17 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 66 Seats

(+2 From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 53 Seats

(+4 From Oct ’21, +42 From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 39 Seats

(+2 From Oct ’21, -10 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 34.41%

(-1.30pp From Oct ’21, -9.18pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 24.81%

(-1.42pp From Oct ’21, -2.52pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 14.16%

(+0.11pp From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 11.28%

(+0.46pp From Oct ’21, +4.47pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 7.95%

(+0.38pp From Oct ’21, -4.62pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.71%

(+0.94pp From Oct ’21, -3.85pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.54%

(+0.01pp From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.39%

(-0.03pp From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.75%

(+0.85pp From Oct ’21, -1.01pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 37.39%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 24.49%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 13.97%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.18%

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 8.22%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.86%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.56%

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.43%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.90%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD

Europe, Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 October Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

8th Oct 202113th Sep 2022 mglee05

OCTOBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s October Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. With Donald Tusk’s return, Civic Coalition has managed to make a big bounce and is now up to just under last election. Poland 2050 is almost down to their starting point. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 184 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, -51 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 125 Seats

(-2 From Sep ’21, -9 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 64 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 49 Seats

(+2 From Sep ’21, +38 From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 37 Seats

(-1 From Sep ’21, -12 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+1 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.71%

(-0.29pp From Sep ’21, -7.88pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 26.23%

(-1.04pp From Sep ’21, -1.10pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 14.05%

(+0.23pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 10.82%

(+0.27pp From Sep ’21, +4.01pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 7.57%

(-1.09pp From Sep ’21, -5.00pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.77%

(+0.99pp From Sep ’21, -4.79pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.53%

(+0.07pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.42%

(+0.20pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.90%

(+0.66pp From Sep ’21, -1.86pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 38.59%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 25.75%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 13.80%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.76%

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 7.77%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.87%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.54%

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.46%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.46%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD

Europe, Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

12th Sep 202113th Sep 2022 mglee05

SEPTEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. With Donald Tusk’s return, Civic Coalition has managed to make a big bounce and is now up to around the last election. Poland 2050 is almost down to their starting point. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 184 Seats

(+16 From Aug ’21, -51 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 127 Seats

(-4 From Aug ’21, -7 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 64 Seats

(-13 From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 47 Seats

(+1 From Aug ’21, +36 From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 38 Seats

(+2 From Aug ’21, -11 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(-2 From Aug ’21, -1 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(NEW ENTRY, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 36.00%

(+2.45pp From Aug ’21, -7.59pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 27.27%

(-0.47pp From Aug ’21, -0.06pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 13.82%

(-2.57pp From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 10.55%

(+1.47pp From Aug ’21, +3.74pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 8.66%

(+1.52pp From Aug ’21, -3.91pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 2.78%

(-0.71pp From Aug ’21, -5.78pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.46%

(-0.22pp From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.22%

(NEW ENTRY, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.24%

(-1.69pp From Aug ’21, -2.52pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 38.76%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 26.67%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 13.51%

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 8.86%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.51%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 2.85%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.47%

reement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.24%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.13%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD

Europe, Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 August Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

11th Aug 202113th Sep 2022 mglee05

AUGUST ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. With Donald Tusk’s return, Civic Coalition has managed to make a big bounce and is now up to around the last election results. Poland 2050 is down to third place once again. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 168 Seats

(+4 From Jul ’21, -67 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 131 Seats

(+43 From Jul ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 77 Seats

(-30 From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 46 Seats

(-7 From Jul ’21, +35 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 36 Seats

(-5 From Jul ’21, -13 From Last Election)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 2 Seats

(+1 From Jul ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 33.55%

(+1.02pp From Jul ’21, -10.04pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 27.74%

(+8.39pp From Jul ’21, +0.41pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 16.39%

(-5.85pp From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.08%

(-2.07pp From Jul ’21, +2.27pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 7.14%

(-1.10pp From Jul ’21, -5.43pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.49%

(-1.32pp From Jul ’21, -5.07pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.68%

(-0.05pp From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.93%

(+0.98pp From Jul ’21, -0.83pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 36.42%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 27.36%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 16.16%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 7.39%

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 7.37%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.60%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.70%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.00%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD