APRIL ’23 PROJECTION
- _Globe Elections UN Video
- _HEADLINE
- _SEAT PROJECTION
- _VOTE SHARE PROJECTION
- _FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
- _RESEARCH INFORMATION
- _Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard
_Globe Elections UN Video
_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s April Projection in Germany, we are projecting that Union has an Edge over Social Democrats, Greens & Alternative. Union Parties are at first place with just over 200 seats combined and Social Dems are again under 20%. Greens continue to fall slightly, Alternative now over 100 seats & 15%. Additionally, The Left fails to take proportional seats for the first time after losing their third constituency to Greens.
_SEAT PROJECTION


Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 219 Seats
(+1 From Mar ’23, +67 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 133 Seats
(+3 From Mar ’23, -73 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 115 Seats
(+2 From Mar ’23, -3 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 107 Seats
(+11 From Mar ’23, +24 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 52 Seats
(+10 From Mar ’23, -40 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 2 Seats
(-32 From Mar ’23, -37 From Last Election)

South Schleswig Voters’ Association(SSW / Big Tent) : 1 Seat
(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)
_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION
-Proportional


Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 28.56%
(-0.69pp From Mar ’23, +4.49pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 19.34%
(-0.71pp From Mar ’23, -6.40pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 16.77%
(-0.73pp From Mar ’23, +2.02pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 15.18%
(+1.02pp From Mar ’23, +4.84pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.50%
(+1.05pp From Mar ’23, -3.96pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 4.47%
(-0.38pp From Mar ’23, -0.42pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 2.24%
(+0.09pp From Mar ’23, -0.19pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 5.94%
(+0.35pp From Mar ’23, -0.38pp From Last Election)
-Constituency


Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 33.39%
(-0.65pp From Mar ’23, +4.83pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 19.54%
(-0.62pp From Mar ’23, -6.85pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 15.63%
(-0.60pp From Mar ’23, +1.68pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 14.64%
(+1.05pp From Mar ’23, +4.51pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 5.62%
(+0.80pp From Mar ’23, -3.10pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 4.48%
(-0.36pp From Mar ’23, -0.50pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 2.62%
(+0.12pp From Mar ’23, -0.26pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 4.08%
(+0.26pp From Mar ’23, -0.31pp From Last Election)
_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2023 Germany General Election April Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 12 polling data(28,433 unweighted / 21,140 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 3/24 and 3/31.
Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.