[Germany General Election]2023 April Projection / Prediction / Forecast

APRIL ’23 PROJECTION

1. _Globe Elections UN Video
2. _HEADLINE
3. _SEAT PROJECTION
4. _VOTE SHARE PROJECTION
   1. -Proportional
   2. -Constituency
5. _FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
6. _RESEARCH INFORMATION
7. _Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

---

_Globe Elections UN Video

---

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s April Projection in Germany, we are projecting that Union has an Edge over Social Democrats, Greens & Alternative. Union Parties are at first place with just over 200 seats combined and Social Dems are again under 20%. Greens continue to fall slightly, Alternative now over 100 seats & 15%. Additionally, The Left fails to take proportional seats for the first time after losing their third constituency to Greens.

---

_SEAT PROJECTION

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 219 Seats

(+1 From Mar ’23, +67 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 133 Seats

(+3 From Mar ’23, -73 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 115 Seats

(+2 From Mar ’23, -3 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 107 Seats

(+11 From Mar ’23, +24 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 52 Seats

(+10 From Mar ’23, -40 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 2 Seats

(-32 From Mar ’23, -37 From Last Election)

South Schleswig Voters’ Association(SSW / Big Tent) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)

---

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

-Proportional

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 28.56%

(-0.69pp From Mar ’23, +4.49pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 19.34%

(-0.71pp From Mar ’23, -6.40pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 16.77%

(-0.73pp From Mar ’23, +2.02pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 15.18%

(+1.02pp From Mar ’23, +4.84pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.50%

(+1.05pp From Mar ’23, -3.96pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 4.47%

(-0.38pp From Mar ’23, -0.42pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 2.24%

(+0.09pp From Mar ’23, -0.19pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 5.94%

(+0.35pp From Mar ’23, -0.38pp From Last Election)

-Constituency

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 33.39%

(-0.65pp From Mar ’23, +4.83pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 19.54%

(-0.62pp From Mar ’23, -6.85pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 15.63%

(-0.60pp From Mar ’23, +1.68pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 14.64%

(+1.05pp From Mar ’23, +4.51pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 5.62%

(+0.80pp From Mar ’23, -3.10pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 4.48%

(-0.36pp From Mar ’23, -0.50pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 2.62%

(+0.12pp From Mar ’23, -0.26pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 4.08%

(+0.26pp From Mar ’23, -0.31pp From Last Election)

---

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

---

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Germany General Election April Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 12 polling data(28,433 unweighted / 21,140 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 3/24 and 3/31.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

---

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Advertisement

[Germany General Election]2023 March Projection / Prediction / Forecast

MARCH ’23 PROJECTION

1. _Globe Elections UN Video
2. _HEADLINE
3. _SEAT PROJECTION
4. _VOTE SHARE PROJECTION
   1. -Proportional
   2. -Constituency
5. _FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
6. _RESEARCH INFORMATION
7. _Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

---

_Globe Elections UN Video

---

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in Germany, we are projecting that Union Parties have an Edge over Social Democrats, Greens & Alternative.

---

_SEAT PROJECTION

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 218 Seats

(+19 From Feb ’23, +66 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 130 Seats

(-7 From Feb ’23, -76 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 113 Seats

(-5 From Feb ’23, -5 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 96 Seats

(-2 From Feb ’23, +13 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 42 Seats

(-3 From Feb ’23, -50 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 34 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’23, -5 From Last Election)

South Schleswig Voters’ Association(SSW / Big Tent) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

---

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

-Proportional

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 29.25%

(+2.23pp From Feb ’23, +5.18pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 20.05%

(-0.99pp From Feb ’23, -5.69pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 17.50%

(-0.66pp From Feb ’23, +2.75pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 14.16%

(+0.05pp From Feb ’23, +3.82pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 6.45%

(-0.44pp From Feb ’23, -5.01pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 4.85%

(-0.01pp From Feb ’23, -0.04pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 2.15%

(-0.05pp From Feb ’23, -0.28pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 5.59%

(-0.13pp From Feb ’23, -0.73pp From Last Election)

-Constituency

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 34.04%

(+2.42pp From Feb ’23, +5.48pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 20.16%

(-1.11pp From Feb ’23, -6.23pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 16.23%

(-0.71pp From Feb ’23, +2.28pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 13.59%

(-0.03pp From Feb ’23, +3.46pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 4.84%

(-0.04pp From Feb ’23, -0.14pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 4.82%

(-0.36pp From Feb ’23, -3.90pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 2.50%

(-0.07pp From Feb ’23, -0.38pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 3.82%

(-0.10pp From Feb ’23, -0.57pp From Last Election)

---

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

---

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Germany General Election March Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 11 polling data(26,411 unweighted / 20,415 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 2/21 and 2/28.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

---

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

[Germany Berlin Election]2023 FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

(None)

---

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Germany Berlin, we are projecting that it is Too Close To Call between Christian Dems & Social Dems, while Greens are slightly behind. The Left, Alternative, Free Dems are also expected to enter the next parliament again.

---

_SEAT PROJECTION

Christian Democratic Union(CDU / Center-Right) : 42 Seats

(+12 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 33 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 30 Seats

(-2 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 19 Seats

(-5 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 16 Seats

(+3 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11 Seats

(-1 From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

---

_PROPORTIONAL VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

Christian Democratic Union(CDU / Center-Right) : 24.48%

(+6.44pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 20.44%

(-0.99pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 17.59%

(-1.29pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 11.56%

(-2.49pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.63%

(+1.63pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 6.13%

(-1.02pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 10.17%

(-2.28pp From Last Election)

---

_CONSTITUENCY VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

Christian Democratic Union(CDU / Center-Right) : 26.35%

(+6.69pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 22.00%

(-1.36pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 18.39%

(-1.60pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 11.33%

(-2.62pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.60%

(+1.53pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 5.58%

(-1.01pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 6.75%

(-1.63pp From Last Election)

---

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

---

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Germany Berlin Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 7 polling data(8,250 unweighted / 5,858 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 2/2 and 2/9.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

---

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

[Germany Federal Election]2021 December Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

DECEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s December Projection in Germany, we are projecting that it is Too Close To Call between the Social Democrats and the Unions. Greens are at strong 3rd, and Free Democrats, Alternative, The Left follows behind.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21 – Will Be Back At Jan ’22)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 167 Seats

(-39 From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 146 Seats

(-51 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 101 Seats

(-17 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 78 Seats

(-14 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 73 Seats

(-10 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 35 Seats

(-4 From Last Election)

South Schleswig Voters’ Association(SSW / Big Tent) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 25.60%

(-0.14pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 22.40%

(-1.67pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 15.57%

(+0.82pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.91%

(+0.45pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.11%

(+0.77pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 5.20%

(+0.31pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 8.21%

(-0.54pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 26.68%

(-1.88pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 26.35%

(-0.04pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 14.78%

(+0.83pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.92%

(+0.79pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 9.10%

(+0.38pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 5.31%

(+0.33pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.86%

(-0.41pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

[Germany Federal Election]2021 FINAL Results & Projection Analysis

FINAL ’21 RESULTS

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s LIVE Projection in Germany, we have projected that Social Democrats are the Apparent Winner over the Unions and Greens.

_NATIONAL RESULTS

-Seat Results (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 206 Seats

(+53 From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 197 Seats

(-49 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 118 Seats

(+51 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 92 Seats

(+12 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 83 Seats

(-11 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 39 Seats

(-30 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 1 Seat

(+1 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Results

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 25.74%

(+5.23pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 24.07%

(-8.86pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 14.75%

(+5.81pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.46%

(+0.71pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.34%

(-2.30pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 4.89%

(-4.35pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 2.43%

(+1.44pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.32%

(+2.32pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Results

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 28.56%

(-8.70pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 26.39%

(+1.75pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 13.95%

(+5.93pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.13%

(-1.33pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 8.72%

(+1.72pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 4.98%

(-3.57pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 2.88%

(+1.61pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.39%

(+2.59pp From Last Election)

_PROJECTION ANALYSIS

-Average Error Analysis

Globe Elections UN(FINAL Projection) : 1.47%

Globe Elections UN(POLL BASE Projection) : 0.86%

—————————————————–

Dawum(Trend) : 0.73%

ZDF(Exit Poll) : 0.77%

ARD(Exit Poll) : 0.91%

Koala(Survery Pool) : 1.03%

Guradian(Tracker) : 1.15%

PollyVote(Forecast) : 1.26%

Pollytix(Trend) : 1.26%

Europe Elects(Average) : 1.29%

Ewybory(Average) : 1.31%

New Statesman(Tracker) : 1.32%

Tagesspiegel(Average) : 1.37%

Politico(Poll Of Polls) : 1.42%

INWT Statistics(Forecast) : 1.45%

PolitPro(Trend) : 1.46%

ElectionMapsUK(Nowcast) : 1.69%

Economist(Forecast) : 2.31%

-Standard Error Analysis

Globe Elections UN(FINAL Projection) : 2.13%

Globe Elections UN(POLL BASE Projection) : 1.10%

—————————————————–

Dawum(Trend) : 0.99%

ARD(Exit Poll) : 1.25%

ZDF(Exit Poll) : 1.27%

Koala(Survery Pool) : 1.28%

Guradian(Tracker) : 1.48%

PollyVote(Forecast) : 1.58%

Pollytix(Trend) : 1.61%

Europe Elects(Average) : 1.68%

Ewybory(Average) : 1.68%

New Statesman(Tracker) : 1.72%

Politico(Poll Of Polls) : 1.75%

Tagesspiegel(Average) : 1.76%

INWT Statistics(Forecast) : 1.77%

PolitPro(Trend) : 1.82%

ElectionMapsUK(Nowcast) : 2.00%

Economist(Forecast) : 3.20%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

[Germany Federal Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Germany, we are projecting that it is too close to call between the Social Democrats and the Unions. Greens are at strong 3rd, and Alternative, Free Democrats, The Left follows after.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 203 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, +50 From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 149 Seats

(+21 From Sep ’21, -97 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 122 Seats

(-17 From Aug ’21, +55 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 81 Seats

(+2 From Sep ’21, -13 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 75 Seats

(-2 From Sep ’21, -5 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 40 Seats

(-2 From Sep ’21, -29 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 23.41%

(+0.17pp From Sep ’21, +2.90pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 20.96%

(+2.57pp From Sep ’21, -11.79pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 18.60%

(-2.94pp From Sep ’21, +9.66pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.54%

(-0.36pp From Sep ’21, +0.79pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.09%

(+0.07pp From Sep ’21, -1.55pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 5.90%

(-0.39pp From Sep ’21, -3.34pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 1.98%

(NEW ENTRY, +0.99pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.52%

(-1.10pp From Sep ’21, +2.52pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 28.87%

(+0.00pp From Sep ’21, +4.23pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 24.44%

(+2.84pp From Sep ’21, -12.82pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 17.33%

(-2.89pp From Sep ’21, +9.31pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.36%

(-0.01pp From Sep ’21, -1.10pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.75%

(-0.30pp From Sep ’21, +0.75pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 5.62%

(-0.42pp From Sep ’21, -2.93pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 2.61%

(NEW ENTRY, +1.34pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 3.02%

(-1.83pp From Sep ’21, +1.22pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 25.30% 

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 22.10% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 15.61% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.40%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.91%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.28%

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 1.96%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.44%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

[Germany Federal Election]2021 September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

SEPTEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in Germany, we are projecting that Social Democrats now will be the largest group on the next Bundestag after a historic big surge. For the second place, there is almost a tie between Greens and Christian Democratic/Social Union. Free Democrats are completely steady, Alternative For Germany is slightly down, and The Left is down.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 203 Seats

(+103 From Aug ’21, +50 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 139 Seats

(-9 From Aug ’21, +72 From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 128 Seats

(-68 From Aug ’21, -118 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 79 Seats

(+3 From Aug ’21, -15 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 77 Seats

(-1 From Aug ’21, -3 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 42 Seats

(-1 From Aug ’21, -27 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 23.24%

(+7.73pp From Aug ’21, +2.73pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 21.54%

(-1.47pp From Aug ’21, +12.60pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 18.39%

(-6.74pp From Aug ’21, -14.36pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.90%

(-0.10pp From Aug ’21, +1.15pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.02%

(-0.23pp From Aug ’21, -1.62pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.29%

(-0.06pp From Aug ’21, -2.95pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 7.62%

(+0.87pp From Aug ’21, +2.62pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 28.87%

(+9.50pp From Aug ’21, +4.23pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 21.60%

(-8.07pp From Aug ’21, -15.66pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 20.22%

(-1.48pp From Aug ’21, +12.21pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.37%

(-0.28pp From Aug ’21, -1.09pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 8.05%

(-0.11pp From Aug ’21, +1.05pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.04%

(-0.09pp From Aug ’21, -2.51pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.85%

(+0.53pp From Aug ’21, +1.77pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 25.26% 

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 19.50% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 18.18% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.83%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.91%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.74%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 7.58%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

[Germany Federal Election]2021 August Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

AUGUST ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Germany, we are projecting that Christian Democratic/Social Union will be the largest group on the next Bundestag. Oppositely, The Greens is just steady compared to July, and Social Democrats emerges to strong 3rd. Free Democrats is completely steady, Alternative For Germany is slightly down, and The Left is down.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 196 Seats

(-25 From Jul ’21, -62 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 148 Seats

(+0 From Jul ’21, +81 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 100 Seats

(+12 From Jul ’21, -53 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 78 Seats

(+6 From Jul ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 76 Seats

(-1 From Jul ’21, -18 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 43 Seats

(-1 From Jul ’21, -26 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 25.13%

(-1.66pp From Jul ’21, -7.62pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 23.01%

(+0.02pp From Jul ’21, +14.07pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.51%

(+1.82pp From Jul ’21, -5.00pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 12.00%

(+0.75pp From Jul ’21, +1.25pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.25%

(-0.50pp From Jul ’21, -1.39pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.35%

(-0.20pp From Jul ’21, -2.89pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.75%

(-0.23pp From Jul ’21, +1.75pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 29.67%

(-2.00pp From Jul ’21, -7.59pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 21.70%

(+0.16pp From Jul ’21, +13.69pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 19.37%

(+2.18pp From Jul ’21, -5.27pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.65%

(-0.48pp From Jul ’21, -0.81pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 8.16%

(+0.50pp From Jul ’21, +1.16pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 613%

(-0.20pp From Jul ’21, -2.42pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.32%

(-0.16pp From Jul ’21, +1.24pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 26.75% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 19.50% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 16.92% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.97%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.18%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.84%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.74%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

[Germany Federal Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s July Projection in Germany, we are projecting that Christian Democratic/Social Union is now back as largest group on the next Bundestag. Oppositely, Greens are down to the figures they obtained in January of this year. Social Democrats follows on 3rd, Germany Alternative is slightly down, Free Democrats are completely steady, and The Left is down.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 221 Seats

(+37 From Jun ’21, -37 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 148 Seats

(-19 From Jun ’21, +81 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 88 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, -65 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 77 Seats

(-5 From Jun ’21, -17 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 72 Seats

(-10 From Jun ’21, -8 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 44 Seats

(+5 From Jun ’21, -25 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 26.79%

(+3.57pp From Jun ’21, -5.96pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 22.99%

(-3.09pp From Jun ’21, +14.05pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.69%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, -6.82pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.75%

(-0.19pp From Jun ’21, -0.89pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.25%

(-1.64pp From Jun ’21, +0.50pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.55%

(+0.53pp From Jun ’21, -2.69pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.98%

(+0.53pp From Jun ’21, +1.98pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 31.67%

(+3.88pp From Jun ’21, -5.59pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 21.54%

(-3.20pp From Jun ’21, +13.53pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 17.19%

(+0.16pp From Jun ’21, -7.45pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.13%

(-0.33pp From Jun ’21, -0.33pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.66%

(-1.23pp From Jun ’21, +0.66pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.33%

(+0.43pp From Jun ’21, -2.22pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.48%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, +1.40pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 28.95% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 19.77% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.16% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.39%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.51%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.15%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 7.07%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

[Germany Federal Election]2021 June Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JUNE ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in Germany, we are projecting that it is too close to call between the Union parties & the Greens. On the other hand, there is also a heat for the 3rd place as Social Democrats fall, Free Democrats gain, Alternative for Germany goes down.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 184 Seats

(+6 From May ’21, -74 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 167 Seats

(-19 From May ’21, +100 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 87 Seats

(-3 From May ’21, -66 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 82 Seats

(+10 From May ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 82 Seats

(+1 From May ’21, -12 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 39 Seats

(-6 From May ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 26.08%

(-3.09pp From May ’21, +17.14pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 23.22%

(+1.93pp From May ’21, -9.53pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.40%

(+0.28pp From May ’21, -7.11pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 12.89%

(+1.63pp From May ’21, +2.14pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.94%

(-0.24pp From May ’21, -0.70pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.02%

(-0.80pp From May ’21, -3.22pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.45%

(+0.29pp From May ’21, +1.45pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 27.79%

(+2.30pp From May ’21, -9.47pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 24.74%

(-2.94pp From May ’21, +16.73pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 17.03%

(+0.34pp From May ’21, -7.61pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.46%

(-0.23pp From May ’21, +0.00pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 8.89%

(+1.12pp From May ’21, +1.89pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 5.90%

(-0.78pp From May ’21, -2.65pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.19%

(+0.19pp From May ’21, +1.11pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 25.28% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 22.61% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.96% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 13.16%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.77%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.63%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.59%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard