FINAL ’22 R1 PROJECTION
_Globe Elections UN Video
_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in Kenya, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close Raila Odinga & William Ruto, with the projected margin being historically narrow.
_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection (Presidential)
Raila Odinga(AZIMIO / Center-Left) : 48.98%
(+4.16pp From Last Election)
William Ruto(KK / Center-Right) : 48.93%
(-5.34pp From Last Election)
George Wajackoyah(RPK / Big Tent) : 1.78%
(NEW PARTY)
David Mwaure(AP / Left-wing) : 0.31%
(NEW PARTY)

-Vote Share Projection (General)
Declaration Of Unity(AZIMIO / Center Big Tent) : 49.06%
(+18.95pp From Last Election)
Kenya First(KK / Center-Right) : 47.42%
(+0.13pp From Last Election)
Roots Party(RPK / Big Tent) : 1.98%
(NEW PARTY)
Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 1.54%
(-21.06pp From Last Election)
_REGION PROJECTIONS

-Key Races
NR(Narok) – ODINGA +2.64pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>
DI(Diaspora) – ODINGA +2.67pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>
NY(Nyamira) – ODINGA +4.00pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>
KJ(Kajiado) – RUTO +5.39pp
WA(Wajir) – ODINGA +6.19pp
SA(Samburu) – ODINGA +8.82pp
IS(Isiolo) – ODINGA +9.44pp
-Other Races
LM(Lamu) – ODINGA +11.06pp
NA(Nairobi) – ODINGA +11.52pp
GA(Garissa) – ODINGA +11.96pp
TR(Tana River) – ODINGA +15.57pp
TU(Turkana) – ODINGA +17.81pp
TR(Trans Nzoia) – ODINGA +18.56pp
KS(Kisii) – ODINGA +20.58pp
WP(West Pokot) – RUTO +20.78pp
BG(Bungoma) – ODINGA +44.17pp
MO(Mombasa) – ODINGA +47.46pp
UG(Uasin Gishu) – RUTO +47.49pp
TT(Taita Taveta) – ODINGA +49.78pp
MD(Mandera) – RUTO +52.99pp
KW(Kwale) – ODINGA +56.46pp
MS(Marsabit) – RUTO + 61.97pp
NK(Nakuru) – RUTO +63.83pp
BA(Baringo) – RUTO +63.84pp
KT(Kitui) – ODINGA +64.79pp
MC(Machakos) – ODINGA +67.21pp
ND(Nandi) – RUTO +68.66pp
BO(Bomet) – RUTO +69.34pp
KL(Kilifi) – ODINGA +71.73pp
ME(Meru) – RUTO +72.44pp
LK(Laikipia) – RUTO +74.20pp
MI(Migori) – ODINGA +74.76pp
BS(Busia) – ODINGA +77.39pp
KK(Kakamega) – ODINGA +78.47pp
EB(Embu) – RUTO +79.44pp
KA(Kiambu) – RUTO +81.73pp
VI(Vihiga) – ODINGA +82.07pp
TH(Tharaka Nithi) – RUTO +82.25pp
KE(Kericho) – RUTO +82.52pp
MK(Makueni) – ODINGA +84.13pp
EM(Elgeyo Marakwet) – RUTO +86.60pp
MU(Muranga) – RUTO +94.43pp
KR(Kirinyaga) – RUTO +95.97pp
NE(Nyeri) – RUTO +96.30pp
KM(Kisumu) – ODINGA +96.33pp
NA(Nyandarua) – RUTO +97.03pp
SI(Siaya) – ODINGA +98.56pp
HB(Homa Bay) – ODINGA +99.00pp
_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2022 Kenya Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 12 polling data(total 72,658 unweighted / 41,141 weighted sample size – presidential, total 60,253 unweighted / 32,014 weighted sample size – general) fieldwork done between 7/26 and 8/2. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.