Asia

[Japan General Election(R)]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Japan, the main ruling Liberal Democrats will remain as the largest party in the House of Representatives, but it is not certain whether they could retain majority or not.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Liberal Democratic Party(LDP / Right-wing) : 244 Seats

(-37 From Last Election)

Constitutional Democratic Party(CDP / Center-Left) : 130 Seats

(+76 From Last Election)

Fair Party(KOMEI / Lean-Right) : 29 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Restoration Association(ISHIN / Center-Right) : 28 Seats

(+17 From Last Election)

Communist Party(JCP / Left-wing) : 17 Seats

(+5 From Last Election)

Democratic Party For The People(DPFP / Lean-Right) : 7 Seats

(-43 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SDP / Center-Left) : 1 Seat

(-1 From Last Election)

Reiwa Shinsengumi(RS / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

The Party Fighting Against NHK In The Trial For Violating Article 72 Of The Attorney Act(NHKP / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Liberal Democratic Party(LDP / Right-wing) : 38.93%

(+5.50pp From Last Election)

Constitutional Democratic Party(CDP / Center-Left) : 22.48%

(+2.60pp From Last Election)

Restoration Association(ISHIN / Center-Right) : 10.98%

(+4.90pp From Last Election)

Fair Party(KOMEI / Lean-Right) : 10.90%

(-1.61pp From Last Election)

Communist Party(JCP / Left-wing) : 8.20%

(+0.30pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party For The People(DPFP / Lean-Right) : 2.73%

(-14.63pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SDP / Center-Left) : 2.21%

(+0.52pp From Last Election)

Reiwa Shinsengumi(RS / Left-wing) : 1.88%

(NEW PARTY)

The Party Fighting Against NHK In The Trial For Violating Article 72 Of The Attorney Act(NHKP / Big Tent) : 0.75%

(NEW PARTY)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0.94%

(-0.21pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Liberal Democratic Party(LDP / Right-wing) : 52.89%

Constitutional Democratic Party(CDP / Center-Left) : 18.79%

Restoration Association(ISHIN / Center-Right) : 8.01%

Fair Party(KOMEI / Lean-Right) : 6.96%

Communist Party(JCP / Left-wing) : 6.02%

Democratic Party For The People(DPFP / Lean-Right) : 2.28%

Reiwa Shinsengumi(RS / Left-wing) : 1.57%

Social Democratic Party(SDP / Center-Left) : 1.19%

The Party Fighting Against NHK In The Trial For Violating Article 72 Of The Attorney Act(NHKP / Big Tent) : 1.02%

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 1.27%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Asia

[Iran Presidential Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 PROJECTION

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Iran, we are projecting Ebrahim Raisi will be elected as the next Iran President after obtaining more than 50% of the votes, and completely preventing a runoff or 2nd Round.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Ebrahim Raisi(CCA / Right-wing) : 80.72%

(+41.29pp From Last Election)

Mohsen Rezaee(RFII / Lean-Left) : 10.43%

(NEW PARTY)

Abdolnaser Hemmati(ECP / Center) : 5.42%

(-53.96pp From Last Election)

Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi(IPL / Center-Right) : 3.43%

(+2.24pp From Last Election)

-Turnout Projection

Registered Voters : 59,310,307

Total Voters Projected To Vote : 25,165,008

Turnout Projection : 42.43%

_DEPARTMENTAL PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

(None)

-Other Races

KU(Kurdistan) – RAISI +47.42pp

AB(Abroad) – RAISI +57.98pp

TE(Tehran) – RAISI +60.89pp

AL(Alborz) – RAISI +61.27pp

EA(East Azerbaijan) – RAISI +62.03pp

WA(West Azerbaijan) – RAISI +63.23pp

GI(Gilan) – RAISI +63.25pp

QA(Qazvin) – RAISI +64.91pp

MZ(Mazandaran) – RAISI +66.51pp

IS(Alborz) – RAISI +66.79pp

QO(Qom) – RAISI +67.24pp

AR(Ardebil) – RAISI +68.40pp

YA(Yazd) – RAISI +69.44pp

ZA(Zanjan) – RAISI +69.87pp

KS(Kermanshah) – RAISI +69.90pp

MR(Markazi) – RAISI +71.45pp

S&B(Sistan & Baluchestan) – RAISI +71.63pp

HA(Hamedan) – RAISI +71.69pp

C&B(Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari) – RAISI +72.80pp

SE(Semnan) – RAISI +72.85pp

GO(Golestan) – RAISI +73.94pp

KH(Khuzestan) – RAISI +74.00pp

HO(Khuzestan) – RAISI +75.70pp

LO(Lorestan) – RAISI +75.81pp

FA(Fars) – RAISI +76.88pp

IL(Ilam) – RAISI +76.99pp

NK(North Khorasan) – RAISI +77.79pp

RK(Razavi Khorasan) – RAISI +77.89pp

BU(Bushehr) – RAISI +79.70pp

KE(Kerman) – RAISI +80.71pp

K&B(Kohgiluyeh & Boyer Ahmad) – RAISI +86.55pp

SK(South Khorasan) – RAISI +88.88pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Israel

[Israel General Election] 2021 FINAL Official Results

_HEADLINE

Globe Elections UN is currently still projecting that it is too early to call for the next government. But we are putting Likud & Yesh Atid as the most & second largest party in the next knesset.

_SEAT RESULTS

-Seat Results By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 56 Seats

(+21 From Last Election)

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 52 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Neutral(NEU / Mixed) : 12 Seats

(-21 From Last Election)

-Seat Results By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 30 Seats

(-6 From Last Election)

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 17 Seats

(NEW PARTY)

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 9 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Neutral) : 8 Seats

(-25 From Last Election)

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 7 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Lean-Right, Opposition) : 7 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Pro-Netanyahu) : 6 Seats

(+6 From Last Election)

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 6 Seats

(-9 From Last Election)

New Hope(NH / Center-Right, Opposition) : 6 Seats

(NEW PARTY)

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 6 Seats

(NEW PARTY)

Ra’am / United Arab List(RA’AM / Big Tent, Neutral) : 4 Seats

(NEW PARTY)

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 0 Seats

(NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed, Neutral) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE RESULTS

-Vote Share Results By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 46.79%

(+17.31pp From Last Election)

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 42.11%

(-1.44pp From Last Election)

Neutral(NEU / Mixed) : 11.10%

(-15.87pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 24.19%

(-5.27pp From Last Election)

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 13.93%

(NEW PARTY)

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 7.17%

(-0.52pp From Last Election)

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Blue & White) : 6.63%

(-19.96pp From Last Election)

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 6.21%

(+0.97pp From Last Election)

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 6.09%

(+0.21pp From Last Election)

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 5.63%

(-0.35pp From Last Election)

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Lean-Right, Opposition) : 5.63%

(+0.04pp From Last Election)

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Pro-Netanyahu) : 5.12%

(+4.70pp From Last Election)

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 4.82%

(-7.89pp From Last Election)

New Hope(NH / Center-Right, Opposition) : 4.74%

(NEW PARTY)

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 4.58%

(NEW PARTY)

Ra’am / United Arab List(RA’AM / Big Tent, Neutral) : 3.79%

(NEW PARTY)

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 0.79%

(NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed, Opposition) : 0.68%

(+0.30pp From Last Election)

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Source Of Data

https://votes24.bechirot.gov.il/

Israel

[Israel General Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Israel, Opposition Coalition will be ahead of Pro-Netanyahu Coalition. This means that the current prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be ousted after 12 years of ruling. However, there would be still a long road to a new PM due to the fact that Opposition Coalition now does not have a majority and the opposition parties did not decide to support a unified candidate.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 59 Seats

(-10 From Mar ’21, +24 From Last Election)

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 52 Seats

(+6 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Neutral(NEU / Mixed) : 9 Seats

(+4 From Jan ’21, -24 From Last Election)

-Seat Projection By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 32 Seats

(+2 From Mar ’21, -4 From Last Election)

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 19 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 9 Seats

(-2 From Mar ’21, -6 From Last Election)

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 9 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

New Hope(NH / Center-Right, Opposition) : 9 Seats

(-5 From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Lean-Right, Opposition) : 9 Seats

(+2 From Mar ’21, +3 From Last Election)

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 8 Seats

(-3 From Mar ’21, +2 From Last Election)

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Neutral) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’21, -28 From Last Election)

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 5 Seats

(-2 From Mar ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Ra’am / United Arab List(RA’AM / Big Tent, Neutral) : 4 Seats

(+4 From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Pro-Netanyahu) : 4 Seats

(+4 From Mar ’21, +4 From Last Election)

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed, Neutral) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 50.75%

(-5.99pp From Mar ’21, +21.27pp From Last Election)

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 41.44%

(+3.95pp From Mar ’21, -2.11pp From Last Election)

Neutral(NEU / Mixed) : 7.81%

(+2.04pp From Mar ’21, -19.16pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 25.49%

(+2.39pp From Mar ’21, -3.97pp From Last Election)

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 14.73%

(+0.16pp From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 7.44%

(-0.76pp From Mar ’21, -5.27pp From Last Election)

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 7.02%

(+0.57pp From Mar ’21, -0.67pp From Last Election)

New Hope(NH / Center-Right, Opposition) : 6.97%

(-3.86pp From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Lean-Right, Opposition) : 6.75%

(+1.12pp From Mar ’21, +1.15pp From Last Election)

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 6.68%

(-1.41pp From Mar ’21, +1.44pp From Last Election)

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 5.56%

(-0.04pp From Mar ’21, -0.42pp From Last Election)

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Blue & White) : 4.31%

(+0.85pp From Mar ’21, -22.28pp From Last Election)

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 4.15%

(-0.82pp From Mar ’21, -1.73pp From Last Election)

Ra’am / United Arab List(RA’AM / Big Tent, Neutral) : 3.45%

(+1.48pp From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Pro-Netanyahu) : 3.37%

(+1.02pp From Mar ’21, +2.95pp From Last Election)

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 3.07%

(-0.06pp From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 0.96%

(-0.35pp From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed, Opposition) : 0.05%

(-0.29pp From Mar ’21, -0.33pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 50.69%

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 41.95%

Neutral(NEU / Mixed) : 7.36%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 25.31%

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 14.84%

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 7.52%

New Hope(NH / Center-Right, Opposition) : 6.92%

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 6.87%

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Lean-Right, Opposition) : 6.60%

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 6.50%

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 5.66%

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Neutral) : 4.34%

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Pro-Netanyahu) : 4.11%

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 3.96%

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 3.41%

Ra’am / United Arab List(RA’AM / Big Tent, Neutral) : 3.00%

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 0.94%

Others(OTH / Mixed, Neutral) : 0.02%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hgyKMdgn9nFGC5xWalQrtNoUBxto1LUuw-KD2Y8OTD4/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Israel

[Israel General Election]2021 March Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in Israel, Opposition Coalition will have the absolute majority of the next Knesset over Pro-Netanyahu Coalition. This means that the current prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be ousted pretty likely after 12 years of ruling. However, there would be still a long road to a new PM due to the fact that opposition parties did not decide to support a unified candidate.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 69 Seats

(-5 From Feb ’21, +34 From Last Election)

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 46 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, -6 From Last Election)

Neutral(NEU / Mixed) : 5 Seats

(+5 From Jan ’21, -28 From Last Election)

-Seat Projection By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 30 Seats

(-1 From Feb ’21, -6 From Last Election)

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 19 Seats

(+1 From Feb ’21, NEW PARTY)

New Hope(NH / Center-Right, Opposition) : 14 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, NEW PARTY)

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 11 Seats

(-1 From Feb ’21, -4 From Last Election)

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 11 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +5 From Last Election)

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 9 Seats

(+1 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Lean-Right, Opposition) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +1 From Last Election)

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Neutral) : 5 Seats

(+5 From Feb ’21, -28 From Last Election)

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 0 Seats

(-5 From Feb ’21, NEW PARTY)

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Pro-Netanyahu) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ra’am / United Arab List(RA’AM / Big Tent, Neutral) : 0 Seats

(NEW PARTY, NEW PARTY)

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed, Neutral) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 56.74%

(-4.31pp From Feb ’21, +27.26pp From Last Election)

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 37.49%

(+1.78pp From Feb ’21, -6.06pp From Last Election)

Neutral(NEU / Mixed) : 5.77%

(-2.53pp From Feb ’21, -21.20pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 23.10%

(-0.78pp From Feb ’21, -6.36pp From Last Election)

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 14.57%

(+0.99pp From Feb ’21, NEW PARTY)

New Hope(NH / Center-Right, Opposition) : 10.83%

(-0.23pp From Feb ’21, NEW PARTY)

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 8.20%

(-0.97pp From Feb ’21, -4.51pp From Last Election)

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 8.09%

(-0.45pp From Feb ’21, +2.85pp From Last Election)

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 6.45%

(+0.38pp From Feb ’21, -1.24pp From Last Election)

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Lean-Right, Opposition) : 5.63%

(+0.31pp From Feb ’21, +0.03pp From Last Election)

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 5.60%

(-0.17pp From Feb ’21, -0.38pp From Last Election)

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 4.97%

(-0.31pp From Feb ’21, -0.91pp From Last Election)

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Blue & White) : 3.46%

(+0.22pp From Feb ’21, -23.13pp From Last Election)

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 3.13%

(-0.53pp From Feb ’21, NEW PARTY)

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Pro-Netanyahu) : 2.35%

(+0.52pp From Feb ’21, +1.93pp From Last Election)

Ra’am / United Arab List(RA’AM / Big Tent, Neutral) : 1.97%

(NEW PARTY, NEW PARTY)

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 1.31%

(-0.70pp From Feb ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed, Opposition) : 0.34%

(-0.29pp From Jan ’21, -0.04pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 56.56%

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 38.14%

Neutral(NEU / Mixed) : 5.30%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 22.88%

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 14.64%

New Hope(NH / Center-Right, Opposition) : 10.73%

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 9.08%

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 7.14%

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 6.29%

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 5.68%

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Lean-Right, Opposition) : 5.50%

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 4.73%

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Neutral) : 3.48%

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 3.46%

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Pro-Netanyahu) : 3.28%

Ra’am / United Arab List(RA’AM / Big Tent, Neutral) : 1.71%

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 1.29%

Others(OTH / Mixed, Neutral) : 0.11%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KTnXNUOjVsPxgcM7s0DaIDtmtQrY-nDVs0G1u-zuYsM/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Israel

[Israel General Election]2021 February Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Israel, Opposition Coalition will have the absolute majority of the next Knesset over Pro-Netanyahu Coalition. Also, the unity coalition partner Blue & White will have no seats after failing to pass 3.25% threshold. This means that the current prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be ousted pretty likely. However, there would be still a long road to a new PM due to the fact that opposition parties did not decide to support a unified candidate.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 74 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +39 From Last Election)

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 46 Seats

(+4 From Jan ’21, -6 From Last Election)

Blue & White(B&W / Center) : 0 Seats

(-4 From Jan ’21, -33 From Last Election)

-Seat Projection By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 31 Seats

(+4 From Jan ’21, -5 From Last Election)

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 18 Seats

(+5 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

New Hope(NH / Right-wing, Opposition) : 14 Seats

(-4 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 12 Seats

(-1 From Jan ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 11 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +5 From Last Election)

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, -1 From Last Election)

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Center-Right, Opposition) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Blue & White) : 0 Seats

(-4 From Jan ’21, -33 From Last Election)

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Opposition) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed, Opposition) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 61.04%

(-0.07pp From Jan ’21, +30.76pp From Last Election)

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 35.72%

(+0.12pp From Jan ’21, -7.41pp From Last Election)

Blue & White(B&W / Center) : 3.24%

(-0.05pp From Jan ’21, -23.35pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 23.88%

(+1.04pp From Jan ’21, -5.58pp From Last Election)

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 13.58%

(+2.50pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

New Hope(NH / Right-wing, Opposition) : 11.06%

(-3.70pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 9.13%

(-1.35pp From Jan ’21, -3.54pp From Last Election)

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 8.54%

(-1.04pp From Jan ’21, +3.30pp From Last Election)

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 6.07%

(-0.60pp From Jan ’21, -1.62pp From Last Election)

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 5.77%

(-0.32pp From Jan ’21, -0.21pp From Last Election)

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Center-Right, Opposition) : 5.32%

(-0.12pp From Jan ’21, -0.28pp From Last Election)

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 5.28%

(-0.39pp From Jan ’21, -0.60pp From Last Election)

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 3.66%

(-0.12pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Blue & White) : 3.24%

(-0.05pp From Jan ’21, -23.35pp From Last Election)

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 2.01%

(+1.76pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Opposition) : 1.83%

(+1.76pp From Jan ’21, +1.41pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed, Opposition) : 0.63%

(+0.63pp From Jan ’21, +0.25pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 61.24%

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 35.50%

Blue & White(B&W / Center) : 3.26%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 23.70%

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 13.68%

New Hope(NH / Right-wing, Opposition) : 10.98%

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 9.60%

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 7.96%

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 5.94%

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 5.86%

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Center-Right, Opposition) : 5.20%

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 5.04%

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 4.05%

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Blue & White) : 3.26%

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Opposition) : 2.56%

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 1.96%

Others(OTH / Mixed, Opposition) : 0.21%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TKDMiOMSfOZdhglTYcUOa9POwk95HzPsWaCC6TV2k1U/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Asia

[2020 Taiwan Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu Recall Election]Final Results

Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu has been removed from office with 42.14% turnout and 97.40% agreeing to pass the recall motion. 969,259 out of the 2,299,981 registered voters has voted today. The recall has passed with a agreement rate of 97.40%(939,090/964,141). According to the official results by CEC, 2.60%(25,051/964,141) of the voters voted against to recall Han Kuo-yu.

_

Spreadsheet Link For Projection/Prediction And Analysis :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1A6CVXzCCi4XZyeXvFGSSa-WxtWXboeSzstt0_zKctU8/

Official Results Link :

https://web.cec.gov.tw/central/cms/109news/33404

Asia

[2020 Taiwan Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu Recall Election]Final Projection/Prediction

Globe Elections United Network is projecting that Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu will be ousted with 41.82% turnout and 85.51% agreeing to pass the recall motion. 961,832 out of the 2,299,981 registered voters are expected to vote. The recall will pass with a agreement rate of 85.51%, or 822,433 people will agree for recalling Han Kuo-yu. According to GEUN projection, there will be 14.49% disagreement rate. This means that 139,399 voters will vote against the motion.

_

Spreadsheet Link For Projection/Prediction And Analysis :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1A6CVXzCCi4XZyeXvFGSSa-WxtWXboeSzstt0_zKctU8/

Asia

[2020 Malaysia Sabah Kimanis By-Election]Live Results

#Counting Numbers Calculated After the Forecasted Turnout of 80.08%

Final Results

All of the votes in. Officialy.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 2,029 votes or 8.68pp.

Outcome : Hold BN.

93.4% Counted

93.4% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 1,792 votes or 8.08pp.

Projection : Likely BN.

81.7% Counted

81.7% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 1,739 votes or 8.96pp.

Projection : Likely BN.

75.4% Counted

75.4% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 1,604 votes or 8.96pp.

Projection : Leaning BN.

58.7% Counted

58.7% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 1,159 votes or 8.30pp.

Projection : Leaning BN.

54.4% Counted

54.4% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 1,159 votes or 8.30pp.

Projection : Leaning BN.

37.3% Counted

37.3% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 517 votes or 5.82pp.

Projection : Too Early To Call.

23.4% Counted

23.4% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 487 votes or 8.78pp.

Projection : Too Early To Call.

11.5% Counted

11.5% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 257 votes or 9.34pp.

Projection : Too Early To Call.

7.0% Counted

7.0% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 141 votes or 8.50pp.

Projection : Too Early To Call.

1.3% Counted

1.3% of the votes in.

WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang leads over BN’s Mohamad Alamin by 16 votes or 5.36pp.

Projection : Too Early To Call.

——————————————————————————————

Result Data From : https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/507580