Category: Asia

Election Results & Projection / Prediction / Forecasts From Asia. Does Not Include South Korea, Israel.

Asia

[Japan General Election(R)]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

mglee05

FINAL ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Japan, the main ruling Liberal Democrats will remain as the largest party in the House of Representatives, but it is not certain whether they could retain majority or not.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Liberal Democratic Party(LDP / Right-wing) : 244 Seats

(-37 From Last Election)

Constitutional Democratic Party(CDP / Center-Left) : 130 Seats

(+76 From Last Election)

Fair Party(KOMEI / Lean-Right) : 29 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Restoration Association(ISHIN / Center-Right) : 28 Seats

(+17 From Last Election)

Communist Party(JCP / Left-wing) : 17 Seats

(+5 From Last Election)

Democratic Party For The People(DPFP / Lean-Right) : 7 Seats

(-43 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SDP / Center-Left) : 1 Seat

(-1 From Last Election)

Reiwa Shinsengumi(RS / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

The Party Fighting Against NHK In The Trial For Violating Article 72 Of The Attorney Act(NHKP / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Liberal Democratic Party(LDP / Right-wing) : 38.93%

(+5.50pp From Last Election)

Constitutional Democratic Party(CDP / Center-Left) : 22.48%

(+2.60pp From Last Election)

Restoration Association(ISHIN / Center-Right) : 10.98%

(+4.90pp From Last Election)

Fair Party(KOMEI / Lean-Right) : 10.90%

(-1.61pp From Last Election)

Communist Party(JCP / Left-wing) : 8.20%

(+0.30pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party For The People(DPFP / Lean-Right) : 2.73%

(-14.63pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SDP / Center-Left) : 2.21%

(+0.52pp From Last Election)

Reiwa Shinsengumi(RS / Left-wing) : 1.88%

(NEW PARTY)

The Party Fighting Against NHK In The Trial For Violating Article 72 Of The Attorney Act(NHKP / Big Tent) : 0.75%

(NEW PARTY)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0.94%

(-0.21pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Liberal Democratic Party(LDP / Right-wing) : 52.89%

Constitutional Democratic Party(CDP / Center-Left) : 18.79%

Restoration Association(ISHIN / Center-Right) : 8.01%

Fair Party(KOMEI / Lean-Right) : 6.96%

Communist Party(JCP / Left-wing) : 6.02%

Democratic Party For The People(DPFP / Lean-Right) : 2.28%

Reiwa Shinsengumi(RS / Left-wing) : 1.57%

Social Democratic Party(SDP / Center-Left) : 1.19%

The Party Fighting Against NHK In The Trial For Violating Article 72 Of The Attorney Act(NHKP / Big Tent) : 1.02%

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 1.27%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Asia

[Iran Presidential Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

mglee05

FINAL ’21 PROJECTION

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Iran, we are projecting Ebrahim Raisi will be elected as the next Iran President after obtaining more than 50% of the votes, and completely preventing a runoff or 2nd Round.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Ebrahim Raisi(CCA / Right-wing) : 80.72%

(+41.29pp From Last Election)

Mohsen Rezaee(RFII / Lean-Left) : 10.43%

(NEW PARTY)

Abdolnaser Hemmati(ECP / Center) : 5.42%

(-53.96pp From Last Election)

Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi(IPL / Center-Right) : 3.43%

(+2.24pp From Last Election)

-Turnout Projection

Registered Voters : 59,310,307

Total Voters Projected To Vote : 25,165,008

Turnout Projection : 42.43%

_DEPARTMENTAL PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

(None)

-Other Races

KU(Kurdistan) – RAISI +47.42pp

AB(Abroad) – RAISI +57.98pp

TE(Tehran) – RAISI +60.89pp

AL(Alborz) – RAISI +61.27pp

EA(East Azerbaijan) – RAISI +62.03pp

WA(West Azerbaijan) – RAISI +63.23pp

GI(Gilan) – RAISI +63.25pp

QA(Qazvin) – RAISI +64.91pp

MZ(Mazandaran) – RAISI +66.51pp

IS(Alborz) – RAISI +66.79pp

QO(Qom) – RAISI +67.24pp

AR(Ardebil) – RAISI +68.40pp

YA(Yazd) – RAISI +69.44pp

ZA(Zanjan) – RAISI +69.87pp

KS(Kermanshah) – RAISI +69.90pp

MR(Markazi) – RAISI +71.45pp

S&B(Sistan & Baluchestan) – RAISI +71.63pp

HA(Hamedan) – RAISI +71.69pp

C&B(Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari) – RAISI +72.80pp

SE(Semnan) – RAISI +72.85pp

GO(Golestan) – RAISI +73.94pp

KH(Khuzestan) – RAISI +74.00pp

HO(Khuzestan) – RAISI +75.70pp

LO(Lorestan) – RAISI +75.81pp

FA(Fars) – RAISI +76.88pp

IL(Ilam) – RAISI +76.99pp

NK(North Khorasan) – RAISI +77.79pp

RK(Razavi Khorasan) – RAISI +77.89pp

BU(Bushehr) – RAISI +79.70pp

KE(Kerman) – RAISI +80.71pp

K&B(Kohgiluyeh & Boyer Ahmad) – RAISI +86.55pp

SK(South Khorasan) – RAISI +88.88pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBAL PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD
Asia

[2020 Taiwan Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu Recall Election]Final Results

mglee05

Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu has been removed from office with 42.14% turnout and 97.40% agreeing to pass the recall motion. 969,259 out of the 2,299,981 registered voters has voted today. The recall has passed with a agreement rate of 97.40%(939,090/964,141). According to the official results by CEC, 2.60%(25,051/964,141) of the voters voted against to recall Han Kuo-yu.

_

Spreadsheet Link For Projection/Prediction And Analysis :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1A6CVXzCCi4XZyeXvFGSSa-WxtWXboeSzstt0_zKctU8/

Official Results Link :

https://web.cec.gov.tw/central/cms/109news/33404

Asia

[2020 Taiwan Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu Recall Election]Final Projection/Prediction

mglee05

Globe Elections United Network is projecting that Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu will be ousted with 41.82% turnout and 85.51% agreeing to pass the recall motion. 961,832 out of the 2,299,981 registered voters are expected to vote. The recall will pass with a agreement rate of 85.51%, or 822,433 people will agree for recalling Han Kuo-yu. According to GEUN projection, there will be 14.49% disagreement rate. This means that 139,399 voters will vote against the motion.

_

Spreadsheet Link For Projection/Prediction And Analysis :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1A6CVXzCCi4XZyeXvFGSSa-WxtWXboeSzstt0_zKctU8/

Asia

[2020 Malaysia Sabah Kimanis By-Election]Live Results

mglee05

#Counting Numbers Calculated After the Forecasted Turnout of 80.08%

Final Results

All of the votes in. Officialy.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 2,029 votes or 8.68pp.

Outcome : Hold BN.

93.4% Counted

93.4% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 1,792 votes or 8.08pp.

Projection : Likely BN.

81.7% Counted

81.7% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 1,739 votes or 8.96pp.

Projection : Likely BN.

75.4% Counted

75.4% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 1,604 votes or 8.96pp.

Projection : Leaning BN.

58.7% Counted

58.7% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 1,159 votes or 8.30pp.

Projection : Leaning BN.

54.4% Counted

54.4% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 1,159 votes or 8.30pp.

Projection : Leaning BN.

37.3% Counted

37.3% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 517 votes or 5.82pp.

Projection : Too Early To Call.

23.4% Counted

23.4% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 487 votes or 8.78pp.

Projection : Too Early To Call.

11.5% Counted

11.5% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 257 votes or 9.34pp.

Projection : Too Early To Call.

7.0% Counted

7.0% of the votes in.

BN’s Mohamad Alamin leads over WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang by 141 votes or 8.50pp.

Projection : Too Early To Call.

1.3% Counted

1.3% of the votes in.

WARISAN-PH’s Karim Bujang leads over BN’s Mohamad Alamin by 16 votes or 5.36pp.

Projection : Too Early To Call.

——————————————————————————————

Result Data From : https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/507580