Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 December Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

DECEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s December Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. With Donald Tusk’s return, Civic Coalition has managed to make a big bounce and Poland 2050 is down to their starting point. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 183 Seats

(-1 From Oct ’21, -52 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 117 Seats

(-8 From Oct ’21, -17 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 66 Seats

(+2 From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 53 Seats

(+4 From Oct ’21, +42 From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 39 Seats

(+2 From Oct ’21, -10 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 34.41%

(-1.30pp From Oct ’21, -9.18pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 24.81%

(-1.42pp From Oct ’21, -2.52pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 14.16%

(+0.11pp From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 11.28%

(+0.46pp From Oct ’21, +4.47pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 7.95%

(+0.38pp From Oct ’21, -4.62pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.71%

(+0.94pp From Oct ’21, -3.85pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.54%

(+0.01pp From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.39%

(-0.03pp From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.75%

(+0.85pp From Oct ’21, -1.01pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 37.39%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 24.49%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 13.97%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.18%

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 8.22%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.86%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.56%

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.43%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.90%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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