According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in France, we are projecting that the Together would probably be remaining as the largest group in the next national assembly, but the majority for them is now uncertain.
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Seat Projection
Together(ENS / Center) : 279 Seats
(-71 From Last Election)
New Ecologic & Social People’s Union(NUPES / Left-wing) : 186 Seats
(+129 From Last Election)
Union Of The Right & Center(UDC / Center-Right) : 59 Seats
2022 France General Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 12 polling data(total 27,277 sample size) fieldwork done between 6/10(12) and 6/17. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection.
According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in Colombia, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Rodolfo Hernandez & Gustavo Petro for the next presidency.
2022 Colombia Presidential Election R2 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 12 polling data(total 26,014 sample size) fieldwork done between 6/4 and 6/11. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.
According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in France, we are projecting that the Together could be retaining majority in the next national assembly but it is Extremely Close between Together & New People’s on the vote level.
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Seat Projection
Together(ENS / Center) : 292 Seats
(-58 From Last Election)
New Ecologic & Social People’s Union(NUPES / Left-wing) : 182 Seats
(+125 From Last Election)
Union Of The Right & Center(UDC / Center-Right) : 44 Seats
(-86 From Last Election)
National Rally(RN / Far-Right) : 34 Seats
(+26pp From Last Election)
Other Left Parties(DVG / Center-Left) : 9 Seats
(-7 From Last Election)
Other Right Parties(DVD / Center-Right) : 1 Seat
(-5 From Last Election)
Reconquest!(REC / Right-wing) : 0 Seat
(NEW PARTY)
Other Center Parties(DVC / Center) : 0 Seat
(NEW PARTY)
Union For France(UPF / Right-wing) : 0 Seat
(-1 From Last Election)
Extremely Right Parties(EXD / Far-Right) : 0 Seat
(-1 From Last Election)
Extremely Left Parties(EXG / Far-Left) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Last Election)
Animalist Party(PA / Big Tent) : 0 Seat
(NEW PARTY)
Others(DIV / Mixed) : 15 Seats
(+7 From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection
Together(ENS / Center) : 27.14%
(-5.19pp From Last Election)
New Ecologic & Social People’s Union(NUPES / Left-wing) : 27.12%
(+17.04pp From Last Election)
National Rally(RN / Far-Right) : 19.59%
(+6.39pp From Last Election)
Union Of The Right & Center(UDC / Center-Right) : 10.32%
2022 France General Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 13 polling data(total 47,888 sample size) fieldwork done between 6/2 and 6/9. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection.
According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close in Gyeonggi & Chungnam, Too Close To Call in Sejong, and Key Race in Daejeon & Incheon.
_NATIONAL MAP
_GYEONGGI PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Kim Eun-hye(PPP / Center-Right) : 47.63%
(+0.23pp From 5/25 ’22, +12.11pp From Last Election)
Kim Dong-yeon(DPK / Lean-Left) : 45.89%
(+0.56pp From 5/25 ’22, -10.52pp From Last Election)
Kang Yong-suk(IND PPP / Right-wing) : 4.57%
(-0.44pp From 5/25 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Hwang Soon-sik(JUS / Center-Left) : 1.14%
(NEW ENTRY From 5/25 ’22, -1.40pp From Last Election)
Song Young-ju(PRO / Left-wing) : 0.48%
(NEW ENTRY From 5/25 ’22, -0.24pp From Last Election)
Seo Tae-sung(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.29%
(NEW ENTRY From 5/25 ’22, NEW PARTY)
_CHUNGNAM PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Kim Tae-heum(PPP / Center-Right) : 51.16%
(-0.05pp From 5/25 ’22, +16.06pp From Last Election)
Yang Seung-jo(DPK / Lean-Left) : 48.84%
(+1.82pp From 5/25 ’22, -13.72pp From Last Election)
Choi Gi-bok(CCF / Lean-Right) : W/D
(-1.77pp From 5/25 ’22, -2.34pp From Last Election)
_SEJONG PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Choi Min-ho(PPP / Center-Right) : 52.39%
(+33.79pp From Last Election)
Lee Choon-hee(DPK / Lean-Left) : 47.61%
(-23.70pp From Last Election)
_DAEJEON PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Lee Jang-woo(PPP / Center-Right) : 54.69%
(+22.52pp From Last Election)
Heo Tae-jeong(DPK / Lean-Left) : 45.31%
(-11.10pp From Last Election)
_INCHEON PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Yoo Jeong-bok(PPP / Center-Right) : 53.20%
(-0.32pp From 5/25 ’22, +17.76pp From Last Election)
Park Nam-choon(DPK / Lean-Left) : 42.26%
(+0.31pp From 5/25 ’22, -15.41pp From Last Election)
Lee Jeong-mi(JUS / Center-Left) : 3.99%
(+0.29pp From 5/25 ’22, +1.17pp From Last Election)
Kim Han-byul(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.55%
(-0.28pp From 5/25 ’22, NEW PARTY)
_CHUNGBUK PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Kim Young-hwan(PPP / Center-Right) : 56.00%
(-0.49pp From 5/25 ’22, +26.34pp From Last Election)
Noh Young-min(DPK / Lean-Left) : 44.00%
(+0.49pp From 5/25 ’22, -17.16pp From Last Election)
_GANGWON PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Kim Jin-tae(PPP / Right-wing) : 56.76%
(+21.49pp From Last Election)
Lee Kwang-jae(DPK / Lean-Left) : 43.24%
(-21.49pp From Last Election)
_JEJU PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Oh Young-hun(DPK / Lean-Left) : 55.11%
(+15.09pp From Last Election)
Heo Hyang-jin(PPP / Lean-Right) : 38.01%
(-16.98pp From Last Election)
Park Chan-sik(IND / Left-wing) : 5.12%
(NEW PARTY)
Boo Soon-jung(GRN / Left-wing) : 1.76%
(-1.78pp From Last Election)
_SEOUL PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Oh Se-hoon(PPP / Lean-Right) : 59.32%
(+1.05pp From 5/25 ’22, +1.78pp From Last Election)
Song Young-gil(DPK / Lean-Left) : 39.16%
(-0.60pp From 5/25 ’22, -0.03pp From Last Election)
Kwon Soo-joung(JUS / Center-Left) : 1.21%
(-0.11pp From 5/25 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Shin Ji-hye(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.19%
(NEW ENTRY From 5/25 ’22, -0.30pp From Last Election)
2022 South Korea Governor Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 113 polling data(total 116,236 unweighted / 109,038 weighted sample size – including data for by-elections) fieldwork done mostly(exception for Gangwon) between 5/18 and 5/25. Governor Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.
According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in Colombia, we are projecting that there will be a runoff between Gustavo Petro & Fico Gutiérrez somewhat likely after being ahead of Rodolfo Hernández & Sergio Fajardo.
2022 Colombia Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 8 polling data(total 21,142 sample size) fieldwork done between 5/13 and 5/20. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.
(+0.00pp From 5/24 ’22, +11.88pp From Last Election)
Kim Dong-yeon(DPK / Lean-Left) : 45.43%
(-0.15pp From 5/24 ’22, -10.98pp From Last Election)
Kang Yong-suk(IND PPP / Right-wing) : 5.01%
(+0.07pp From 5/24 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 2.16%
(+0.08pp From 5/24 ’22, -5.91pp From Last Election)
_TREND (GYEONGGI)
_AGE (GYEONGGI)
_DATA (CHUNGNAM)
-Vote Share Projection
Kim Tae-heum(PPP / Center-Right) : 51.21%
(+0.29pp From 5/24 ’22, +16.11pp From Last Election)
Yang Seung-jo(DPK / Lean-Left) : 47.02%
(-0.63pp From 5/24 ’22, -15.54pp From Last Election)
Choi Gi-bok(CCF / Lean-Right) : 1.77%
(+0.34pp From 5/24 ’22, -0.57pp From Last Election)
_TREND (CHUNGNAM)
_DATA (SEOUL)
-Vote Share Projection
Oh Se-hoon(PPP / Lean-Right) : 58.27%
(-0.01pp From 5/24 ’22, +0.73pp From Last Election)
Song Young-gil(DPK / Lean-Left) : 39.76%
(+0.17pp From 5/24 ’22, +0.57pp From Last Election)
Kwon Soo-joung(JUS / Center-Left) : 1.32%
(-0.07pp From 5/24 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.65%
(-0.09pp From 5/24 ’22, -2.62pp From Last Election)
_TREND (SEOUL)
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2022 5/25 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 12 polling data(total 10,761 sample size) fieldwork done between 5/16 and 5/23 for Gyeonggi, 12 polling data(total 9,168 sample size) fieldwork done between 5/15 and 5/22 for Chungnam, 9 polling data(total 8,348 sample size) fieldwork done between 5/16 and 5/23 for Seoul and reported on National Election Survey Deliberation Commission(NESDC)’s Opinion Poll Status. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).
(+0.76pp From 5/21 ’21, +11.69pp From Last Election)
Kim Dong-yeon(DPK / Lean-Left) : 44.62%
(-1.03pp From 5/21 ’21, -11.79pp From Last Election)
Kang Yong-suk(IND PPP / Right-wing) : 5.76%
(+0.10pp From 5/21 ’21, NEW PARTY)
Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 2.41%
(+0.17pp From 5/21 ’21, -5.66pp From Last Election)
_TREND (GYEONGGI)
_AGE (GYEONGGI)
_DATA (SEOUL)
-Vote Share Projection
Oh Se-hoon(PPP / Lean-Right) : 59.18%
(-1.34pp From 5/21 ’21, +1.64pp From Last Election)
Song Young-gil(DPK / Lean-Left) : 38.55%
(+1.33pp From 5/21 ’21, -0.64pp From Last Election)
Kwon Soo-joung(JUS / Center-Left) : 1.62%
(-0.05pp From 5/21 ’21, NEW PARTY)
Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.65%
(+0.06pp From 5/21 ’21, -2.62pp From Last Election)
_TREND (SEOUL)
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2022 5/23 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 13 polling data(total 11,337 sample size) fieldwork done between 5/14 and 5/21 for Gyeonggi, 9 polling data(total 6,721 sample size) fieldwork done between 5/14 and 5/21 for Seoul and reported on National Election Survey Deliberation Commission(NESDC)’s Opinion Poll Status. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).
According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Australia, we are projecting that the Labor Party will be the largest party likely but the majority is not certain as it is still a Key Race between them and Liberal/Nationals.
2022 Australia General Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 6 polling data(total 9,380 sample size) fieldwork done between 4/15 and 4/22. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection.
(+0.36pp From 5/18 ’21, +10.77pp From Last Election)
Kim Dong-yeon(DPK / Lean-Left) : 45.94%
(-0.14pp From 5/18 ’21, -10.47pp From Last Election)
Kang Yong-suk(IND PPP / Right-wing) : 5.55%
(-0.10pp From 5/18 ’21, NEW PARTY)
Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 2.22%
(-0.12pp From 5/18 ’21, -5.85pp From Last Election)
_TREND (GYEONGGI)
_AGE (GYEONGGI)
_DATA (SEOUL)
-Vote Share Projection
Oh Se-hoon(PPP / Lean-Right) : 62.14%
(-0.18pp From 5/18 ’21, +4.60pp From Last Election)
Song Young-gil(DPK / Lean-Left) : 35.18%
(-0.13pp From 5/18 ’21, -4.01pp From Last Election)
Kwon Soo-joung(JUS / Center-Left) : 1.68%
(+0.27pp From 5/18 ’21, NEW PARTY)
Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.00%
(+0.04pp From 5/18 ’21, -2.27pp From Last Election)
_TREND (SEOUL)
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2022 5/19 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 11 polling data(total 10,049 sample size) fieldwork done between 5/10 and 5/17 for Gyeonggi, 9 polling data(total 7,135 sample size) fieldwork done between 5/8 and 5/15 for Seoul and reported on National Election Survey Deliberation Commission(NESDC)’s Opinion Poll Status. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).
(+0.32pp From 5/16 ’21, -10.18pp From Last Election)
Kim Eun-hye(PPP / Center-Right) : 45.80%
(+0.23pp From 5/16 ’21, +10.28pp From Last Election)
Kang Yong-suk(IND PPP / Right-wing) : 5.70%
(-0.23pp From 5/16 ’21, NEW PARTY)
Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 2.27%
(-0.32pp From 5/16 ’21, -5.80pp From Last Election)
_TREND (GYEONGGI)
_AGE (GYEONGGI)
_DATA (SEOUL)
-Vote Share Projection
Oh Se-hoon(PPP / Lean-Right) : 62.13%
(+0.76pp From 5/16 ’21, +4.59pp From Last Election)
Song Young-gil(DPK / Lean-Left) : 35.31%
(-0.40pp From 5/16 ’21, -3.88pp From Last Election)
Kwon Soo-joung(JUS / Center-Left) : 1.58%
(+0.02pp From 5/16 ’21, NEW PARTY)
Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.98%
(-0.38pp From 5/16 ’21, -2.29pp From Last Election)
_TREND (SEOUL)
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2022 5/17 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 11 polling data(total 8,499 sample size) fieldwork done between 5/8 and 5/15 for Gyeonggi, 7 polling data(total 5,522 sample size) fieldwork done between 5/8 and 5/15 for Seoul and reported on National Election Survey Deliberation Commission(NESDC)’s Opinion Poll Status. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).
Global Elections, History, Society Center (GEHSC.en) 