America

[Peru Presidential Election]2021 2nd Round FINAL Results

LATEST RESULTS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round LIVE Projection in Peru, we are calling that Pedro Castillo is the apparent winner after a extremely close fight with Keiko Fujimori.

(***APPARENT WINNER IS NOT PROJECTED WINNER, IT MEANS WE CAN CALL THAT CANDIDATE WILL WIN, BUT COULD FLIP AFTER OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS RECOUNT OR ANNULMENT OF VOTES)

_NATIONAL RESULTS

-Vote Share Projection

Pedro Castillo(PPNPL / Left-wing) : 50.14%

(+0.02pp From Last Election)

Keiko Fujimori(FP / Far-Right) : 49.86%

(-0.02pp From Last Election)

_DEPARTMENTAL RESULTS

-Key Races

LO(Loreto) – FUJIMORI +3.60pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

UC(Ucayali) – FUJIMORI +3.64pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

IC(Ica) – FUJIMORI +4.96pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

SM(San Martin) – CASTILLO +12.22pp

JU(Junin) – CASTILLO +16.30pp

LA(Lambayeque) – FUJIMORI +16.36pp

AN(Ancash) – CASTILLO +16.78pp

PI(Piura) – FUJIMORI +20.10pp

PA(Pasco) – CASTILLO +30.70pp

CJ(Cajamarca) – CASTILLO +42.54pp

-Other Races

LL(La Libertad) – FUJIMORI +20.00pp

LI(Lima) – FUJIMORI +29.26pp

AR(Arequipa) – CASTILLO +29.68pp

CL(Callao) – FUJIMORI +29.84pp

TU(Tumbes) – FUJIMORI +31.76pp

EX(Extranjero) – FUJIMORI +32.38pp

AM(Amazonas) – CASTILLO +33.42pp

HC(Huanuco) – CASTILLO +35.40pp

MD(Madre de Dios) – CASTILLO +42.12pp

TA(Tacna) – CASTILLO +45.14pp

MO(Moquegua) – CASTILLO +46.26pp

AP(Apurimac) – CASTILLO +62.94pp

AY(Ayacucho) – CASTILLO +65.28pp

CU(Cusco) – CASTILLO +66.40pp

HV(Huancavelica) – CASTILLO +69.62pp

PU(Puno) – CASTILLO +78.52pp

_PROJECTION ANALYSIS

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO – FULL RESULTS

_Globe Elections UN STREAM – LIVE RESULTS(Part 8)

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

America

[Peru Presidential Election]2021 2nd Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL PROJECTION

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in Peru, we are projecting that it is extremely close between Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Castillo, therefore we could not project the winner this election yet.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Keiko Fujimori(FP / Far-Right) : 50.16%

(+0.28pp From Last Election)

Pedro Castillo(PPNPL / Left-wing) : 49.84%

(-0.28pp From Last Election)

_DEPARTMENTAL PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

CJ(Cajamarca) – FUJIMORI +0.90pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

SM(San Martin) – CASTILLO +1.04pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

PA(Pasco) – FUJIMORI +1.16pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

IC(Ica) – FUJIMORI +3.02pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

UC(Ucayali) – CASTILLO +5.30pp

JU(Junin) – CASTILLO +6.12pp

LA(Lambayeque) – FUJIMORI +7.22pp

PI(Piura) – FUJIMORI +7.88pp

LO(Loreto) – CASTILLO +9.90pp

-Other Races

TU(Tumbes) – FUJIMORI +11.64pp

AN(Ancash) – CASTILLO +13.52pp

AM(Amazonas) – CASTILLO +14.10pp

LL(La Libertad) – FUJIMORI +16.46pp

CL(Callao) – FUJIMORI +17.08pp

LI(Lima) – FUJIMORI +18.20pp

HC(Huanuco) – CASTILLO +23.92pp

AR(Arequipa) – CASTILLO +28.90pp

MD(Madre de Dios) – CASTILLO +29.62pp

MO(Moquegua) – CASTILLO +30.62pp

EX(Extranjero) – FUJIMORI +43.40pp

AP(Apurimac) – CASTILLO +34.00pp

AY(Ayacucho) – CASTILLO +41.58pp

HV(Huancavelica) – CASTILLO +41.84pp

TA(Tacna) – CASTILLO +44.38pp

CU(Cusco) – CASTILLO +51.88pp

PU(Puno) – CASTILLO +53.54pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard


R1 BASE PROJECTION

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round R1 BASE Projection in Peru, we are projecting that it is extremely close between Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Castillo, therefore we could not project a particular winner.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Keiko Fujimori(FP / Far-Right) : 50.70%

(+0.82pp From Last Election)

Pedro Castillo(PPNPL / Left-wing) : 49.30%

(-0.82pp From Last Election)

_DEPARTMENTAL PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

IC(Ica) – FUJIMORI +2.32pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

SM(San Martin) – CASTILLO +3.23pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

AN(Ancash) – CASTILLO +4.05pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

UC(Ucayali) – FUJIMORI +7.21pp

-Other Races

LO(Loreto) – FUJIMORI +13.73pp

JU(Junin)CASTILLO +14.49pp

AR(Arequipa)CASTILLO +19.22pp

HC(Huanuco)CASTILLO +21.54pp

EX(Extranjero) – FUJIMORI +23.19pp

PI(Piura) – FUJIMORI +23.36pp

LI(Lima) – FUJIMORI +23.55pp

CL(Callao) – FUJIMORI +25.36pp

LA(Lambayeque) – FUJIMORI +25.97pp

PA(Pasco) – CASTILLO +27.01pp

AM(Amazonas)CASTILLO +28.02pp

MD(Madre de Dios)CASTILLO +31.04pp

CJ(Cajamarca)CASTILLO +32.79pp

TA(Tacna)CASTILLO +35.15pp

LL(La Libertad) – FUJIMORI +35.93pp

TU(Tumbes) – FUJIMORI +39.53pp

MO(Moquegua)CASTILLO +40.16pp

CU(Cusco)CASTILLO +57.33pp

AY(Ayacucho)CASTILLO +60.56pp

AP(Apurimac)CASTILLO +63.46pp

HV(Huancavelica)CASTILLO +68.11pp

PU(Puno)CASTILLO +75.95pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is likely to be taken by Poland 2050, a new party led by Szymon Hołownia. Mostly due to Poland 2050’s rise, Civic Coalition is now below 100 seats. On the other hand, The Left is up on the seat level but not on the vote level, and Confederation is significantly up. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore won’t have any seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 165 Seats

(+3 From Apr ’21, -70 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 103 Seats

(-3 From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 88 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, -46 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 55 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 49 Seats

(+1 From Apr ’21, +38 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Apr ’21, -1 From Last Election)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 32.62%

(+2.38pp From Apr ’21, -10.97pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.65%

(+0.16pp From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 18.92%

(+0.44pp From Apr ’21, -8.41pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 11.34%

(+0.63pp From Apr ’21, +4.53pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.61%

(+0.42pp From Apr ’21, -1.96pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.83%

(-1.07pp From Apr ’21, -4.73pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.62%

(-1.38pp From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.41%

(-1.58pp From Apr ’21, -0.69pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.27%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.26%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 18.59%

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.91%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.18%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.94%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.62%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.41%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wlnJhq1QWvIa7OS0FEXUk8N5Z5P7_eVIPsTEg89_FsM/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Notice

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are likely to be retaining majority in the next parliament with a majority of 28 seats. Also, the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 346 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+AP+SDLP+GRN)‘s 297 by 49.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 339 Seats

(-3 From Apr ’21, -26 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 226 Seats

(+4 From Apr ’21, +23 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 53 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’21, +5 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(+1 From Apr ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 6 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 5 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.16%

(+0.09pp From Apr ’21, -1.47pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.15%

(+0.42pp From Apr ’21, +2.99pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.86%

(+0.27pp From Apr ’21, -4.97pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.22%

(+0.22pp From Apr ’21, +2.54pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.22%

(-0.22pp From Apr ’21, +0.34pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.35%

(-0.06pp From Apr ’21, -0.66pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.91%

(-0.82pp From Apr ’21, +0.43pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.40%

(-0.73pp From Apr ’21, +0.34pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.73%

(+0.83pp From Apr ’21, +0.11pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.24%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.41%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.57%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.26%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.25%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.06%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.92%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.41%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.88%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gn6n8aOQiDOZ9sFV2D_oHt3gllKZ8KJy47CFIVlrZ3c/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Germany, we are projecting that The Greens will now likely be the largest group in the next Bundestag as they make enormous gains. Oppositely, the Union parties have crashed down again and will be behind at second even with their strong grounds on individual constituencies. On the other hand, the Social Democrats have just less than 100 seats mainly due to the rise of The Greens. Alternative for Germany, Free Democrats are now steady and The Left are down slightly from the last election.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (*Including Both Leveling Seats & Overhang Seats From Apr ’21)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 186 Seats

(+4 From Apr ’21, +119 From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 178 Seats

(-30 From Apr ’21, -80 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 90 Seats

(-4 From Apr ’21, -63 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 81 Seats

(+2 From Apr ’21, -13 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 72 Seats

(+12 From Apr ’21, -8 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 45 Seats

(+1 From Apr ’21, -24 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 29.17%

(+0.63pp From Apr ’21, +20.23pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 21.29%

(-2.13pp From Apr ’21, -11.46pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.12%

(-1.03pp From Apr ’21, -7.39pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 12.18%

(+0.55pp From Apr ’21, -0.46pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.26%

(+1.93pp From Apr ’21, +0.51pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.82%

(+0.26pp From Apr ’21, -2.42pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.16%

(-0.21pp From Apr ’21, +1.16pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 27.68%

(+0.94pp From Apr ’21, +19.67pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 25.49%

(-2.20pp From Apr ’21, -11.77pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 16.69%

(-1.08pp From Apr ’21, -7.95pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.69%

(+0.67pp From Apr ’21, +0.23pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.77%

(+1.41pp From Apr ’21, +0.77pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.68%

(+0.34pp From Apr ’21, -1.87pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.00%

(-0.08pp From Apr ’21, +0.92pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 25.44% 

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 23.32% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.73% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.57%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.05%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.82%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.16%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SbKCbFUUy4CFHNovpuAkZpWY8YYh7vDNoQv0m6wpQOM/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Notice

[Italy General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will gain the majority of both chambers very likely, after being ahead of Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement by little more than 10%p.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 54.05%

(-0.74pp From Apr ’21, +17.05pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 42.23%

(+0.06pp From Apr ’21, -15.75pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.72%

(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -1.30pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 54.05%

(-0.74pp From Apr ’21, +17.05pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 21.98%

(+0.53pp From Apr ’21, +0.08pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 17.66%

(-0.14pp From Apr ’21, -15.02pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 2.59%

(-0.33pp From Apr ’21, -0.81pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.72%

(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -1.30pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 27.75%

(-1.57pp From Apr ’21, +10.40pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 20.51%

(+1.28pp From Apr ’21, +16.16pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 17.66%

(-0.14pp From Apr ’21, -15.02pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 14.82%

(+0.55pp From Apr ’21, -3.94pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 5.62%

(+0.21pp From Apr ’21, -8.38pp From Last Election)

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.04%

(+0.07pp From Apr ’21, +1.48pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 2.59%

(-0.33pp From Apr ’21, -0.81pp From Last Election)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.85%

(-0.06pp From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.27%

(-0.03pp From Apr ’21, +0.69pp From Last Election)

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.17%

(-0.66pp From Apr ’21, -1.13pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 3.72%

(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -1.30pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 48.35%

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 47.59%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 4.06%

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX) : 48.35%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX) : 28.14%

Five Star Movement(M5S) : 16.31%

Free & Equal(LeU) : 3.14%

Others(ALT) : 4.06%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 21.98%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 19.58%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 18.67%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.31%

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.48%

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.42%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 3.14%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.45%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.69%

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.22%

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 4.06%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_vnaCapG7M3SDAgjo5D4y_3Trx23V64UjFX5RYq1EDc/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Notice

[South Korea General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in South Korea, People’s Power Party will have the supermajority and the Democrats will only manage to take much fewer than 100 seats. Continuing on, People Party is on the course to increase many seats. Justice Party is up on the seat level but not on the vote share level. Open Democrats will also gain seats, but Progressive Party and People’s Livelihood Party will not.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From May ’21)

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 224 Seats

(+61 From Apr ’21, +121 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 52 Seats

(-50 From Apr ’21, -128 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 11 Seats

(-6 From Apr ’21, +8 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 8 Seats

(-3 From Apr ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 46.47%

(-0.13pp From Apr ’21, +12.63pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 25.96%

(+0.31pp From Apr ’21, -9.23pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10.82%

(-0.87pp From Apr ’21, +4.02pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 7.68%

(-0.22pp From Apr ’21, -1.99pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 4.55%

(+0.23pp From Apr ’21, -0.89pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.52%

(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -6.39pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 57.32%

(+1.79pp From Apr ’21, +15.86pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 39.11%

(+1.78pp From Apr ’21, -10.80pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.37%

(+0.01pp From Apr ’21, -0.34pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.20%

(-3.58pp From Apr ’21, -4.62pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 34.40%

(-1.12pp From Apr ’21, -21.80pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 65.60%

(+1.12pp From Apr ’21, +21.80pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROEJCTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 41.07%

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 37.49%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 8.15%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.07%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 5.02%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.20%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 36.28%

Disapproval : 63.72% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wMuHDlsYC8zU_8EwM8muO3_g1ugM4XbdJfVJRr0AUfk/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom Scotland General Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in the United Kingdom(UK) Scotland, we are projecting that the Scottish Nationals could possibly gain majority in the next parliament with a majority of 1 seat at the most likeliest outcome. Also, the potential Pro-Independence Alliance(SNP+GRN+ALBA) will have a absolute majority with 76 seats, after being ahead of potential Anti-Independence Alliance(CON+LAB+LD+AFU+RUK+UKIP)‘s 53 by 23 seats.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 65 Seats

(+2 From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 28 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 20 Seats

(-4 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 11 Seats

(+5 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Scotland Party(ALBA / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

All For Unity(AFU / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

-Proportional(=Regional) Vote Share Projection

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 37.81%

(-3.91pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 22.32%

(-0.61pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 17.61%

(-1.46pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 10.01%

(+3.43pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 5.92%

(+0.70pp From Last Election)

Scotland Party(ALBA / Big Tent) : 3.10%

(NEW PARTY)

All For Unity(AFU / Big Tent) : 0.81%

(NEW PARTY)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0.30%

(NEW PARTY)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.08%

(-1.95pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.04%

(-0.41pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 48.75%

(+2.25pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 21.27%

(-0.75pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 20.77%

(-1.79pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.92%

(-0.90pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1.22%

(+0.64pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.07%

(+0.55pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_xLi0yWCmSEB_kgaQ-7GG3e_xgMWG4dcGyibx9qaL8Y/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 April Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s April Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is projected to be taken by Poland 2050, a new party led by Szymon Hołownia. Due to Poland 2050’s rise, Civic Coalition is now below 100 seats. On the other hand, The Left is up on the seat level but not on the vote level, and Confederation is significantly up. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore will have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 162 Seats

(+5 From Mar ’21, -73 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 106 Seats

(-8 From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 88 Seats

(-3 From Mar ’21, -46 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 55 Seats

(+2 From Mar ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 48 Seats

(+4 From Mar ’21, +37 From Last Election)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 30.24%

(+0.15pp From Mar ’21, -13.35pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.49%

(-1.60pp From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 18.48%

(-0.95pp From Mar ’21, -8.85pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 10.71%

(+2.36pp From Mar ’21, +3.90pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.19%

(-0.25pp From Mar ’21, -2.38pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.90%

(+0.63pp From Mar ’21, -3.66pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 2.00%

(+0.71pp From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.99%

(-1.05pp From Mar ’21, +0.89pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 32.98%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.29%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 18.31%

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.56%

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.75%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 5.08%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 2.08%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.95%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PT0moD5HuIAXo57bs3tmfF-aCrpm9d3j7jFTt8qXo5o/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/