Europe, United Kingdom

[Canada Alberta General Election]2023 FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

mglee05

FINAL ’23 PROJECTION

  1. _FULL GRAPHICS
  2. _HEADLINE
  3. _SEAT PROJECTION
  4. _VOTE SHARE PROJECTION
  5. _FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
  6. _RESEARCH INFORMATION
  7. _Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboards

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Canada Alberta, we are projecting that it is EXTREMELY CLOSE between Danielle Smith’s United Conservatives & Rachel Notley’s New Democrats.

_SEAT PROJECTION

United Conservative Party(UCP / Right-wing) : 46 Seats

(-17 From Last Election)

New Democratic Party(NDP / Center-Left) : 41 Seats

(+17 From Last Election)

Alberta Party(AP / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Liberal Party(LIB / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Wildrose Independence Party(WIP / Right-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Solidarity Movement(SM / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

The Independence Party(TIP / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

United Conservative Party(UCP / Right-wing) : 48.14%

(-6.79pp From Last Election)

New Democratic Party(NDP / Center-Left) : 46.66%

(+13.94pp From Last Election)

Alberta Party(AP / Center) : 1.87%

(-7.22pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 0.93%

(+0.52pp From Last Election)

Liberal Party(LIB / Center) : 0.50%

(-0.48pp From Last Election)

Wildrose Independence Party(WIP / Right-wing) : 0.24%

(-0.28pp From Last Election)

Solidarity Movement(SM / Big Tent) : 0.15%

(NEW PARTY)

The Independence Party(TIP / Big Tent) : 0.05%

(-0.66pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 1.46%

(+0.72pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Canada Alberta General Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 14 polling data(19,690 unweighted / 16,374 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 5/21 and 5/28.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboards

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard
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Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]2023 2nd Round FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

mglee05

FINAL ’23 R2 PROJECTION

  1. _FULL GRAPHICS
  2. _HEADLINE
  3. _NATIONAL PROJECTION
  4. _PROVINCE PROJECTIONS
  5. _FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
  6. _RESEARCH INFORMATION
  7. _ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Turkey, we are projecting it is Too Close To Call between incumbent president Recep Erdoğan & opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHUR / Right-wing) : 52.24%

(+0.27pp From 05/27 ’23, -0.35pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 47.76%

(-0.27pp From 05/27 ’23, +0.35pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

Hatay – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +0.34pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Manisa – ​ERDOĞAN +0.50pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Artvin – ​ERDOĞAN +0.64pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Ankara – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +1.68pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Yalova – ​ERDOĞAN +1.84pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Uşak – ​ERDOĞAN +1.92pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

İstanbul – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +2.18pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Balıkesir – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +4.48pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Bitlis – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +4.92pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Denizli – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +5.48pp

Adana – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +7.64pp

Bilecik – ​ERDOĞAN +8.64pp

Eskişehir – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +9.84pp

-Other Races

Zonguldak – ​ERDOĞAN +10.22pp

Burdur – ​ERDOĞAN +10.76pp

Bursa – ​ERDOĞAN +11.30pp

Antalya – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +14.78pp

Siirt – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +15.32pp

Isparta – ​ERDOĞAN +16.04pp

Kırşehir – ​ERDOĞAN +16.04pp

Kocaeli – ​ERDOĞAN +16.30pp

Kars – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +16.54pp

Çanakkale – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +16.60pp

Yurtdışı – ​ERDOĞAN +17.22pp

Tekirdağ – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +17.76pp

Ardahan – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +18.20pp

Amasya – ​ERDOĞAN +18.86pp

Aydın – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +19.62pp

Bartın – ​ERDOĞAN +19.98pp

Muş – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +20.36pp

Mersin – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +20.98pp

Sinop – ​ERDOĞAN +23.56pp

Niğde – ​ERDOĞAN +24.58pp

Erzincan – ​ERDOĞAN +24.66pp

Şanlıurfa – ​ERDOĞAN +26.06pp

Gaziantep – ​ERDOĞAN +26.10pp

Van – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +27.46pp

Giresun – ​ERDOĞAN +28.10pp

Karabük – ​ERDOĞAN +29.04pp

Giresun – ​ERDOĞAN +29.22pp

Çorum – ​ERDOĞAN +29.68pp

Ordu – ​ERDOĞAN +30.64pp

Bolu – ​ERDOĞAN +31.68pp

Samsun – ​ERDOĞAN +32.06pp

Bingöl – ​ERDOĞAN +32.86pp

Karaman– ​ERDOĞAN +33.14pp

Edirne – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +33.16pp

Osmaniye – ​ERDOĞAN +33.22pp

Tokat – ​ERDOĞAN +33.22pp

Muğla – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +33.46pp

İzmir – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +33.84pp

Nevşehir – ​ERDOĞAN +33.96pp

Mardin – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +34.48pp

Ağrı – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +35.16pp

Adıyaman – ​ERDOĞAN +35.40pp

Kırklareli – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +36.46pp

Afyonkarahisar – ​ERDOĞAN +36.94pp

Batman – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +37.30pp

Kayseri – ​ERDOĞAN +38.96pp

Trabzon – ​ERDOĞAN +39.00pp

Sakarya – ​ERDOĞAN +39.20pp

Elazığ – ​ERDOĞAN +40.44pp

Kilis – ​ERDOĞAN +40.72pp

Kastamonu – ​ERDOĞAN +41.04pp

Kütahya – ​ERDOĞAN +42.14pp

Iğdır – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +42.50pp

Malatya – ​ERDOĞAN +43.50pp

Düzce – ​ERDOĞAN +46.14pp

Diyarbak – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +46.34pp

Erzurum – ​ERDOĞAN +46.84pp

Sivas – ​ERDOĞAN +47.86pp

Konya – ​ERDOĞAN +47.90pp

Hakkâri – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +49.30pp

Aksaray – ​ERDOĞAN +51.66pp

Kahramanmaraş – ​ERDOĞAN +52.16pp

Rize – ​ERDOĞAN +53.02pp

Yozgat – ​ERDOĞAN +54.08pp

Çankırı – ​ERDOĞAN +55.26pp

Tunceli – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +56.02pp

Gümüşhane – ​ERDOĞAN +57.28pp

Tunceli – ​KILIÇDAROĞLU +66.42pp

Bayburt – ​ERDOĞAN +66.96pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Turkey Presidential Election R2 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 40 polling data(750,851 unweighted / 171,079 weighted sample size – largest ever!!!) fieldwork done between 5/20 and 5/27. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard
Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]2023 2nd Round R1 BASE Projection / Prediction / Forecast

mglee05

R1 BASE ’23 R2 PROJECTION

  1. _FULL GRAPHICS
  2. _HEADLINE
  3. _NATIONAL PROJECTION
  4. _FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
  5. _RESEARCH INFORMATION
  6. _ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s R1 BASE Projection in Turkey, we are projecting it is Too Close To Call between incumbent president Recep Erdoğan & opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHUR / Right-wing) : 52.22%

(+1.14pp From First ’23, -0.37pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 47.78%

(-1.14pp From First ’23, +0.37pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Turkey Presidential Election R1 BASE Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects the results of the 1st Round. R1 BASE Projection is calculated by allocating votes of R1 based on political spectrum and support of each candidates & parties/alliances.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard
Europe, United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2023 May Projection / Prediction / Forecast

mglee05

MAY ’23 PROJECTION

  1. _Globe Elections UN Video
  2. _HEADLINE
  3. _SEAT PROJECTION
  4. _VOTE SHARE PROJECTION
  5. _FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
  6. _RESEARCH INFORMATION
  7. _Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboards

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in United Kingdom, we are projecting that the Labour Party will likely take the majority over the Conservatives in the next parliament.

_SEAT PROJECTION

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 344 Seats

(-19 From Apr ’23, +141 From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 210 Seats

(+17 From Apr ’23, -155 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 46 Seats

(+2 From Apr ’23, -2 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 27 Seats

(+1 From Apr ’23, +16 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 8 Seats

(+2 From Apr ’23, +0 From Last Election)

We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 3 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’23, -1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 1 Seat

(-1 From Apr ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Right-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’23, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Apr ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’23, +1 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 43.68%

(-1.85pp From Apr ’23, +11.52pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 28.19%

(+0.63pp From Apr ’23, -15.44pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 10.43%

(+1.16pp From Apr ’23, -1.12pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Right-wing Big Tent) : 5.61%

(-0.11pp From Apr ’23, +3.60pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.12%

(+0.31pp From Apr ’23, +2.42pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 3.45%

(+0.09pp From Apr ’23, -0.43pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.48%

(+0.07pp From Apr ’23, +0.41pp From Last Election)

Party Of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.45%

(-0.33pp From Apr ’23, -0.03pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 2.59%

(+0.03pp From Apr ’23, -0.93pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 United Kingdom General Election May Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 11 polling data(20,646 unweighted / 18,585 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/23 and 4/30.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboards

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard
Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]2023 2nd Round First Projection / Prediction / Forecast

mglee05

First ’23 R2 PROJECTION

  1. _FULL GRAPHICS
  2. _HEADLINE
  3. _NATIONAL PROJECTION
    1. -Poll+Error
    2. -Poll Base
  4. _FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
  5. _RESEARCH INFORMATION
  6. _ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s First Projection in Turkey, we are projecting it is Extremely Close between incumbent president Recep Erdoğan & opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Poll+Error

(Reflecting R1 Polling Error)

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHUR / Right-wing) : 51.08%

(-1.51pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 48.92%

(+1.51pp From Last Election)

-Poll Base

(Not Reflecting R1 Polling Error)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 51.26%

(+3.85pp From Last Election)

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHUR / Right-wing) : 48.74%

(-3.85pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Turkey Presidential Election R2 First Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 13 polling data(51,956 unweighted / 37,963 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 5/6 and 5/13. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard
Asia, South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2023 May Projection / Prediction / Forecast

mglee05

MAY ’23 PROJECTION

  1. _FULL VIDEO
  2. _HEADLINE
  3. _SEAT PROJECTION
  4. _VOTE SHARE PROJECTION
    1. -Proportional
    2. -Constituency
  5. _FULL RESULTS/DETAILS
  6. _RESEARCH INFORMATION
  7. _Global Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

_FULL VIDEO

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that it is Democrats of Lee Jae-myung now have an Edge over People Power, led by Kim Gi-hyeon for the majority of the National Assembly.

_SEAT PROJECTION

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 175 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’23, -8 From Last Election)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 118 Seats

(+1 From Apr ’23, +12 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JUS / Center-Left) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’23, +1 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(PRO / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’23, -5 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

-Proportional

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 50.14%

(-0.96pp From Apr ’23, +11.05pp From Last Election)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 43.25%

(-0.04pp From Apr ’23, +1.92pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 3.88%

(+0.43pp From Apr ’23, -5.79pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 2.73%

(+0.57pp From Apr ’23, -7.18pp From Last Election)

-Constituency

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 55.07%

(-0.68pp From Apr ’23, +4.31pp From Last Election)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 41.93%

(+0.24pp From Apr ’23, -1.48pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 2.00%

(+0.23pp From Apr ’23, +0.29pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 1.00%

(+0.21pp From Apr ’23, -3.12pp From Last Election)

_FULL RESULTS/DETAILS

FULL RESULTS/DETAILS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 South Korea General Election May Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 13 polling data(15,589 unweighted / 14,584 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/23 and 4/30.

For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Global Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Global Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard
Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]2023 1st Round FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

mglee05

FINAL ’23 R1 PROJECTION

  1. _FULL GRAPHICS
  2. _HEADLINE
  3. _NATIONAL PROJECTION
    1. -Projection Excluding Muharrem İnce
    2. -Projection Including Muharrem İnce
  4. _FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
  5. _RESEARCH INFORMATION
  6. _ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Turkey, we are projecting it is Extremely Close between incumbent president Recep Erdoğan & opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Projection Excluding Muharrem İnce

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 48.29%

(+2.51pp From May ’23, +1.08pp From Last Election)

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHUR / Right-wing) : 48.27%

(+1.15pp From May ’23, -4.52pp From Last Election)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 3.44%

(+0.98pp From May ’23, NEW PARTY)

-Projection Including Muharrem İnce

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHUR / Right-wing) : 47.86%

(+0.77pp From May ’23, -4.93pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 47.66%

(-4.93pp From May ’23, +0.45pp From Last Election)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 3.27%

(+0.81pp From May ’23, NEW PARTY)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 1.21%

(-3.45pp From May ’23, NEW PARTY)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Turkey Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 42 polling data(243,057 unweighted / 156,643 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 5/6 and 5/13. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard
Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]5/12 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

mglee05

5/12 ’23 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO

_DATA

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 47.97%

(+0.97pp From 5/11 ’23, -4.82pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 46.90%

(-0.11pp From 5/11 ’23, -0.31pp From Last Election)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 2.79%

(+0.04pp From 5/11 ’23, NEW PARTY)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 2.34%

(-0.90pp From 5/11 ’23, NEW PARTY)

_TREND

Erdoğan once again back on the lead in single day.

But remains a very close race between Erdoğan & Kılıçdaroğlu.

_AGE

Total = Erdoğan 47.97%, Kılıçdaroğlu 46.90%, Oğan 2.79%, İnce 2.34% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

18~29 = Kılıçdaroğlu 49.45%, Erdoğan 45.55%, Oğan 2.68%, İnce 2.32% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

30~44 = Erdoğan 48.46%, Kılıçdaroğlu 46.66%, Oğan 2.78%, İnce 2.10% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

45+ = Erdoğan 49.14%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.45%, Oğan 2.86%, İnce 2.55% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 5/12 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 17 polling data(144,938 unweighted / 65,853 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 5/3 and 5/10. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

turkey-presidential-election-polling-follower-2023-05-12-specialDownload
https://globeelectionshistorysociety.wordpress.com/2023-tr-polling-follower/
Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]5/11 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

mglee05

5/11 ’23 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO

_DATA

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 47.01%

(+0.51pp From 5/10 ’23, -0.20pp From Last Election)

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 47.00%

(-0.34pp From 5/10 ’23, -5.79pp From Last Election)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 3.24%

(-0.07pp From 5/10 ’23, NEW PARTY)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 2.75%

(-0.10pp From 5/10 ’23, NEW PARTY)

_TREND

Kemal again over Erdoğan for the first time in nine days.

But remains a very close race between Erdoğan & Kılıçdaroğlu.

_AGE

Total = Kılıçdaroğlu 47.01%, Erdoğan 47.00%, İnce 3.24%, Oğan 2.75% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

18~29 = Kılıçdaroğlu 49.55%, Erdoğan 44.60%, İnce 3.20%, Oğan 2.65% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

30~44 = Erdoğan 47.53%, Kılıçdaroğlu 46.82%, İnce 2.90%, Oğan 2.75% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

45+ = Erdoğan 48.12%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.54%, İnce 3.52%, Oğan 2.82% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 5/11 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 24 polling data(112,351 unweighted / 71,418 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/30 and 5/7. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

turkey-presidential-election-polling-follower-2023-05-11-extraDownload
https://globeelectionshistorysociety.wordpress.com/2023-tr-polling-follower/
Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]2023 May Projection / Prediction / Forecast

mglee05

MAY ’23 PROJECTION

  1. _FULL GRAPHICS
  2. _HEADLINE
  3. _NATIONAL PROJECTION
  4. _FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
  5. _RESEARCH INFORMATION
  6. _ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Turkey, we are projecting it is Extremely Close between incumbent president Recep Erdoğan & opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Meanwhile, Muharrem İnce & Sinan Oğan follow after at 3rd, 4th place.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 47.09%

(+1.19pp From First ’23, -5.70pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 45.79%

(-2.62pp From First ’23, -1.42pp From Last Election)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 4.66%

(+0.69pp From First ’23, NEW PARTY)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 2.46%

(+0.74pp From First ’23, NEW PARTY)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS (May)
FULL DETAILS/RESULTS (First)

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Turkey Presidential Election May Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 29 polling data(101,698 unweighted / 81,388 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/23 and 4/30. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard