(-1.00pp From 9/25 ’22, +1585pp From Last Election)
Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 40.23%
(+1.68pp From 9/25 ’22, -7.06pp From Last Election)
Ciro Gomes(PDT / Center-Left) : 6.59%
(-0.71pp From 9/25 ’22, -5.88pp From Last Election)
Simone Tebet(MDB / Center) : 4.66%
(-0.24pp From 9/25 ’22, -2.11pp From Last Election)
Soraya Thronicke(UNIÃO / Center-Right) : 0.90%
(-0.03pp From 9/25 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Luiz D’Avila(NOVO / Center-Right) : 0.50%
(+0.16pp From 9/25 ’22, -2.00pp From Last Election)
José Eymael(DC / Right-wing) : 0.12%
(+0.06pp From 9/25 ’22, +0.04pp From Last Election)
Sofia Manzano(PCB / Far-Left) : 0.08%
(+0.03pp From 9/25 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Kelmon Souza(PTB / Far-Right) : 0.07%
(+0.03pp From 9/25 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Leo Péricles(UP / Far-Left) : 0.06%
(+0.02pp From 9/25 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Vera Lúcia(PSTU / Left-wing) : 0.06%
(+0.00pp From 9/25 ’22, +0.01pp From Last Election)
_TREND
_AGE
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2022 9/26 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 13 polling data(total 45,243 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 9/15 and 9/22 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as the presidential projection.
(-0.78pp From 9/24 ’22, +16.85pp From Last Election)
Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 38.55%
(+0.81pp From 9/24 ’22, -8.74pp From Last Election)
Ciro Gomes(PDT / Center-Left) : 7.30%
(+0.02pp From 9/24 ’22, -5.17pp From Last Election)
Simone Tebet(MDB / Center) : 4.90%
(-0.03pp From 9/24 ’22, -1.87pp From Last Election)
Soraya Thronicke(UNIÃO / Center-Right) : 0.93%
(+0.00pp From 9/24 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Luiz D’Avila(NOVO / Center-Right) : 0.34%
(-0.01pp From 9/24 ’22, -2.16pp From Last Election)
José Eymael(DC / Right-wing) : 0.06%
(+0.00pp From 9/24 ’22, -0.02pp From Last Election)
Vera Lúcia(PSTU / Left-wing) : 0.06%
(+0.00pp From 9/24 ’22, +0.01pp From Last Election)
Sofia Manzano(PCB / Far-Left) : 0.05%
(+0.00pp From 9/24 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Leo Péricles(UP / Far-Left) : 0.04%
(-0.01pp From 9/24 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Kelmon Souza(PTB / Far-Right) : 0.04%
(+0.00pp From 9/24 ’22, NEW PARTY)
_TREND
_AGE
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2022 9/25 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 12 polling data(total 35,885 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 9/15 and 9/22 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as the presidential projection.
(+1.85pp From 9/20 ’22, +16.54pp From Last Election)
Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 38.40%
(-0.64pp From 9/20 ’22, -8.89pp From Last Election)
Ciro Gomes(PDT / Center-Left) : 7.48%
(-0.69pp From 9/20 ’22, -4.99pp From Last Election)
Simone Tebet(MDB / Center) : 5.07%
(-0.47pp From 9/20 ’22, -1.70pp From Last Election)
Soraya Thronicke(UNIÃO / Center-Right) : 0.98%
(-0.09pp From 9/20 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Luiz D’Avila(NOVO / Center-Right) : 0.43%
(-0.05pp From 9/20 ’22, -2.07pp From Last Election)
José Eymael(DC / Right-wing) : 0.05%
(+0.04pp From 9/20 ’22, -0.03pp From Last Election)
Leo Péricles(UP / Far-Left) : 0.05%
(+0.04pp From 9/20 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Vera Lúcia(PSTU / Left-wing) : 0.04%
(+0.00pp From 9/20 ’22, -0.01pp From Last Election)
Sofia Manzano(PCB / Far-Left) : 0.04%
(+0.00pp From 9/20 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Kelmon Souza(PTB / Far-Right) : 0.04%
(+0.01pp From 9/20 ’22, NEW PARTY)
_TREND
_AGE
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2022 9/22 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 13 polling data(total 31,343 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 9/13 and 9/20 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as the presidential projection.
According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Italy, we are projecting that now it is Extremely Close between Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement and Center-Right Coalition on the extended coalition level.
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition
Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 46.21%
(+8.69pp From Last Election)
Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 28.51%
(+3.18pp From Last Election)
Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 12.76%
(+19.90pp From Last Election)
Center Coalition(CX / Lean-Left) : 6.48%
(+6.42pp From Last Election)
Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 2.66%
(+1.71pp From Last Election)
People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 1.04%
(-0.10pp From Last Election)
Others(ALT / Mixed) : 2.34%
(+0.00pp From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection By Party
Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 24.98%
(+0.57pp From 9/9 ’22, +20.64pp From Last Election)
Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 22.11%
(-0.07pp From 9/9 ’22, +2.73pp From Last Election)
Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 12.76%
(+0.40pp From 9/9 ’22, -19.90pp From Last Election)
League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 12.37%
(-0.47pp From 9/9 ’22, -4.98pp From Last Election)
Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 7.40%
(-0.09pp From 9/9 ’22, -6.59pp From Last Election)
Action + Italy Alive(AZ+IV / Lean-Left) : 6.48%
(+0.07pp From 9/9 ’22, +6.42pp From Last Election)
Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 3.58%
(+0.16pp From 9/9 ’22, +0.19pp From Last Election)
Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 2.66%
(-0.02pp From 9/9 ’22, +1.71pp From Last Election)
More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 1.85%
(-0.18pp From 9/9 ’22, -0.71pp From Last Election)
Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 1.46%
(-0.28pp From 9/9 ’22, -0.38pp From Last Election)
Popular Union(UP / Far-Left) : 1.04%
(NEW ENTRY, -0.10pp From Last Election)
Civic Commitment(IC / Lean-Left) : 0.97%
(-0.22pp From 9/9 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 2.34%
(-0.93pp From 9/9 ’21, +0.00pp From Last Election)
(-0.09pp From 9/19 ’22, +14.69pp From Last Election)
Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 39.04%
(+0.20pp From 9/19 ’22, -8.25pp From Last Election)
Ciro Gomes(PDT / Center-Left) : 8.17%
(-0.08pp From 9/19 ’22, -4.30pp From Last Election)
Simone Tebet(MDB / Center) : 5.54%
(+0.04pp From 9/19 ’22, -1.23pp From Last Election)
Soraya Thronicke(UNIÃO / Center-Right) : 1.07%
(+0.03pp From 9/19 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Luiz D’Avila(NOVO / Center-Right) : 0.48%
(-0.10pp From 9/19 ’22, -2.02pp From Last Election)
Vera Lúcia(PSTU / Left-wing) : 0.04%
(+0.00pp From 9/19 ’22, -0.01pp From Last Election)
Sofia Manzano(PCB / Far-Left) : 0.04%
(+0.00pp From 9/19 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Kelmon Souza(PTB / Far-Right) : 0.03%
(+0.00pp From 9/19 ’22, NEW PARTY)
José Eymael(DC / Right-wing) : 0.01%
(+0.00pp From 9/19 ’22, -0.03pp From Last Election)
Leo Péricles(UP / Far-Left) : 0.01%
(+0.00pp From 9/19 ’22, NEW PARTY)
_TREND
_AGE
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2022 9/20 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 12 polling data(total 22,260 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 9/11 and 9/18 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as the presidential projection.
(-0.54pp From 9/17 ’22, +14.78pp From Last Election)
Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 38.84%
(+0.48pp From 9/17 ’22, -8.45pp From Last Election)
Ciro Gomes(PDT / Center-Left) : 8.25%
(-0.06pp From 9/17 ’22, -4.22pp From Last Election)
Simone Tebet(MDB / Center) : 5.50%
(+0.11pp From 9/17 ’22, -1.27pp From Last Election)
Soraya Thronicke(UNIÃO / Center-Right) : 1.04%
(-0.04pp From 9/17 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Luiz D’Avila(NOVO / Center-Right) : 0.58%
(+0.04pp From 9/17 ’22, -1.92pp From Last Election)
Sofia Manzano(PCB / Far-Left) : 0.04%
(+0.00pp From 9/17 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Vera Lúcia(PSTU / Left-wing) : 0.04%
(+0.02pp From 9/17 ’22, -0.01pp From Last Election)
Kelmon Souza(PTB / Far-Right) : 0.03%
(-0.01pp From 9/17 ’22, NEW PARTY)
José Eymael(DC / Right-wing) : 0.01%
(+0.00pp From 9/17 ’22, -0.03pp From Last Election)
Leo Péricles(UP / Far-Left) : 0.01%
(+0.00pp From 9/17 ’22, NEW PARTY)
_TREND
_AGE
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2022 9/18 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 12 polling data(total 26,761 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 9/9 and 9/16 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as the presidential projection.
According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round September Projection in Brazil, we are projecting that former president Lula da Silva is somewhat ahead but it is still a Key Race between him and incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro.
_NATIONAL PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 47.62%
(+15.87pp From Last Election)
Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 39.10%
(-8.19pp From Last Election)
Ciro Gomes(PDT / Center-Left) : 8.60%
(-3.87pp From Last Election)
Simone Tebet(MDB / Center) : 3.59%
(-3.18pp From Last Election)
Vera Lúcia(PSTU / Left-wing) : 0.37%
(+0.32pp From Last Election)
Luiz D’Avila(NOVO / Center-Right) : 0.32%
(-2.18pp From Last Election)
José Eymael(DC / Right-wing) : 0.21%
(+0.17pp From Last Election)
Sofia Manzano(PCB / Far-Left) : 0.07%
(NEW PARTY)
Leo Péricles(UP / Far-Left) : 0.05%
(NEW PARTY)
Padre Kelmon(PTB / Far-Right) : 0.04%
(NEW PARTY)
Soraya Thronicke(UNIÃO / Center-Right) : 0.03%
(NEW PARTY)
_STATE PROJECTIONS (POLL+SWING)
-Key Races
RS(Rio Grande do Sul) – LULA +1.50pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>
SP(São Paulo) – BOLSONARO +7.13pp (POLL BASE – BOLSONARO +1.46pp)
RJ(Rio de Janeiro) – BOLSONARO +10.00pp (POLL BASE – BOLSONARO +4.15pp)
MG(Minas Gerais) – LULA +10.34pp (SWING BASE – LULA +3.99pp)
PR(Paraná) – BOLSONARO +10.39pp (POLL BASE – BOLSONARO +4.40pp)
2022 Brazil Presidential Election R1 September Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 11 polling data(total 28,517 unweighted / 21,416 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 8/23 and 8/30 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.
According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Sweden, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Red & Greens, led by Magdalena Andersson and Conservatives, led by Ulf Kristersson.
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Seat Projection (By Coalition)
Conservative Bloc(KB / Right-wing) : 154 Seats
(+0 From 9/8 ’22, +0 From Last Election)
Red & Greens(R&G / Center-Left) : 150 Seats
(+2 From 9/8 ’22, +6 From Last Election)
Center & Liberals(C&L / Lean-Right) : 45 Seats
(-2 From 9/8 ’22, -6 From Last Election)
Other Parties(ÖVR / Mixed) : 0 Seat
(+0 From 9/8 ’22, +0 From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection (By Coalition)
Conservative Bloc(KB / Right-wing) : 43.78%
(+0.05pp Rom 9/8 ’22,+0.09pp From Last Election)
Red & Greens(R&G / Center-Left) : 42.50%
(+0.23pp From 9/8 ’22, +1.82pp From Last Election)
Center & Liberals(C&L / Lean-Right) : 12.65%
(-0.25pp From 9/8 ’22, -1.45pp From Last Election)
Other Parties(ÖVR / Mixed) : 1.07%
(-0.03pp From 9/8 ’22,-0.46pp From Last Election)
-Seat Projection (By Party)
Social Democratic Party(S / Center-Left – R&G) : 103 Seats
(+1 From 9/8 ’22, +3 From Last Election)
Sweden Democrats(SD / Right-wing- KB) : 72 Seats
(+1 From 9/8 ’22, +10 From Last Election)
Moderate Party(M / Center-Right- KB) : 62 Seats
(+0 From 9/8 ’22, -8 From Last Election)
Left Party(V / Left-wing – R&G) : 27 Seats
(-1 From 9/8 ’22, -1 From Last Election)
Center Party(C / Center – C&L) : 27 Seats
(+0 From 9/8 ’22, -4 From Last Election)
Christian Democrats(KD / Center-Right- KB) : 20 Seats
(-1 From 9/8 ’22, -2 From Last Election)
Green Party(MP / Center-Left – R&G) : 20 Seats
(+1 From 9/8 ’22, +4 From Last Election)
Liberals(L / Center – C&L) : 18 Seats
(-1 From 9/8 ’22, -2 From Last Election)
Other Parties(Ö / Mixed – ÖVR) : 0 Seat
(+0 From 9/8 ’22, +0 From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection (By Party)
Social Democratic Party(S / Center-Left – R&G) : 29.28%
(+0.41pp From 9/8 ’22, +1.02pp From Last Election)
Sweden Democrats(SD / Right-wing- KB) : 20.41%
(+0.25pp From 9/8 ’22, +2.88pp From Last Election)
Moderate Party(M / Center-Right- KB) : 17.59%
(+0.10pp From 9/8 ’22, -2.25pp From Last Election)
Left Party(V / Left-wing – R&G) : 7.64%
(-0.38pp From 9/8 ’22, -0.37pp From Last Election)
Center Party(C / Center – C&L) : 7.60%
(-0.01pp From 9/8 ’22, -1.01pp From Last Election)
Christian Democrats(KD / Center-Right- KB) : 5.78%
(-0.30pp From 9/8 ’22, -0.54pp From Last Election)
Green Party(MP / Center-Left – R&G) : 5.58%
(+0.20pp From 9/8 ’22, +1.17pp From Last Election)
Liberals(L / Center – C&L) : 5.05%
(-0.24pp From 9/8 ’22, -0.44pp From Last Election)
Other Parties(Ö / Mixed – ÖVR) : 1.07%
(-0.03pp, From 9/8 ’22, -0.46pp From Last Election)
2022 Sweden General Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 13 polling data(total 25,138 unweighted / 21,035 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 9/2 and 9/9. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection.
According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Chile, we are projecting that it is Key Race between Approve & Reject, however Reject has an impressive lead.
2022 Chile Constitutional Referendum FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 9 polling data(total 21,714 unweighted / 20,028 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 8/12 and 8/19.
2022 8/30 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 8 polling data(total 13,453 sample size) fieldwork done between 8/20 and 8/27 and reported on Electoral Political Polls. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to Electoral Political Polls homepage(http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/).
Global Elections History Society Center (GEHSC.en) 