According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that it is Extremely Call between Democrats, led by Lee Jae-myung & People Power, led by Chung Jin-suk for the overall control of the next National Assembly.
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Seat Projection
Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 154 Seats
(+4 From Jan ’23 -29 From Last Election)
People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 146 Seats
(+6 From Jan ’23, +40 From Last Election)
Justice Party(JUS / Center-Left) : 0 Seat
(-10 From Jan ’23, -6 From Last Election)
Progressive Party(PRO / Left-wing) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Jan ’23, +0 From Last Election)
Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Jan ’23, -5 From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection (Proportional)
Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 47.97%
(+1.16pp From Jan ’23, +8.88pp From Last Election)
People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 47.08%
(+0.20pp From Jan ’23, +5.75pp From Last Election)
Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 2.97%
(-1.29pp From Jan ’23, -6.70pp From Last Election)
Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 1.98%
(-0.07pp From Jan ’23, -7.93pp From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection (Constituency)
Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 52.37%
(+0.87pp From Jan ’23, +1.61pp From Last Election)
People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 45.38%
(-0.16pp From Jan ’23, +1.97pp From Last Election)
Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.53%
(-0.68pp From Jan ’23, -0.18pp From Last Election)
Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0.72%
(-0.03pp From Jan ’23, -3.40pp From Last Election)
2023 South Korea General Election February Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 16 polling data(total 18,830 unweighted / 16,982 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/24 and 1/31.
For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).
Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.
According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in Cyprus, we are projecting Nikos Christodoulides will advance to R2 in 1st place, while the 2nd place is left Extremely Close between Averof Neofytou & Andreas Mavroyiannis.
2023 Cyprus Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 10 polling data(11,147 unweighted / 6,723 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/19 and 1/26. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.
2023 Czechia Presidential Election R2 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 4 polling data(6,432 unweighted / 6,432 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/15 and 1/22. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.
According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round R1 BASE Projection in Czechia, we are projecting Petr Pavel is likely elected for the presidnecy over Andrej Babiš.
2023 Czechia Presidential Election R2 R1 BASE Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects the results of the 1st Round. R1 Base Projection is calculated by allocating votes of R1 based on political spectrum and support of each candidates & parties/alliances.
According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in Czechia, we are projecting it is Extremely Close & Too Close To Call between general Petr Pavel, former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, university president Danuše Nerudová.
2023 Czechia Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 4 polling data(5,364 unweighted / 5,364 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/2 and 1/9. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.
According to Globe Elections UN’s January Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that it is Extremely Call between Democrats, led by Lee Jae-myung & People Power, led by Chung Jin-suk for the control of the next National Assembly.
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Seat Projection
Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 150 Seats
(-63 From Dec ’22, -33 From Last Election)
People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 140 Seats
(+58 From Dec ’22, +34 From Last Election)
Justice Party(JUS / Center-Left) : 10 Seats
(+5 From Dec ’22, +4 From Last Election)
Progressive Party(PRO / Left-wing) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Dec ’22, +0 From Last Election)
Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Dec ’22, -5 From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection (Proportional)
People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 46.88%
(+5.97pp From Dec ’22, +5.55pp From Last Election)
Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 46.81%
(-5.80pp From Dec ’22, +7.72pp From Last Election)
Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 4.26%
(+0.28pp From Dec ’22, -5.41pp From Last Election)
Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 2.05%
(-0.45pp From Dec ’22, -7.86pp From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection (Constituency)
Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 51.50%
(-8.88pp From Dec ’22, +0.74pp From Last Election)
People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 45.54%
(+7.56pp From Dec ’22, +2.13pp From Last Election)
Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 2.21%
(+1.47pp From Dec ’22, +0.50pp From Last Election)
Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0.75%
(-0.15pp From Dec ’22, -3.37pp From Last Election)
2023 South Korea General Election Jaunuary Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 18 polling data(total 19,664 unweighted / 19,164 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 12/24 and 12/31.
For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).
Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.
According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in US Georgia, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Raphael Warnock the incumbent & Herschel Walker the challenger on the runoff.
2022 United States Georgia Senate Election Runoff(2nd Round) FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 10 polling data(total 10,953 unweighted / 8,005 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 11/28 and 12/5. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.
According to Globe Elections UN’s R1 BASE Projection in US Georgia, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Raphael Warnock & Herschel Walker in a rematch in just one month time.
2022 United States Georgia Senate Election Runoff(2nd Round) R1 BASE Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects the results of the 1st Round. R1 Base Projection is calculated by allocating votes of R1 based on political spectrum and support of each candidates & parties/alliances.
According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in United States, we are projecting that it is Extremely Call between Democrats & Republicans both in Seat & Vote Share level.
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Seat Projection
Democratic Party(DP / Center-Left) : 221 Seats
(-7 From Oct ’22, -1 From Last Election)
Republican Party(GOP / Center-Right) : 214 Seats
(+7 From Oct ’22, +1 From Last Election)
Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Oct ’22, +0 From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection
Democratic Party(DP / Center-Left) : 49.34%
(-1.53pp From Oct ’22, -0.93pp From Last Election)
Republican Party(GOP / Center-Right) : 49.19%
(+1.32pp From Oct ’22, +1.96pp From Last Election)
Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 1.47%
(+0.21pp From Oct ’22, -1.03pp From Last Election)
2022 United States General Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 18 polling data(total 106,795 unweighted / 15,545 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/31 and 11/7. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.
According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in United States, we are projecting that it is Too Close To Call between Republicans & Democrats, with the Republicans quite ahead. However, a opposite picture is expected in terms of governing population.
2022 United States Governor Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 83 polling data(total 73,972 unweighted / 61,389 weighted sample size) fieldwork done mostly(exception for Pennsylvania) between 10/31 and 11/7. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.
Global Elections History Society Center (GEHSC.en) 