According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round LIVE Projection in Peru, we are calling that Pedro Castillo is the apparent winner after a extremely close fight with Keiko Fujimori.
(***APPARENT WINNER IS NOT PROJECTED WINNER, IT MEANS WE CAN CALL THAT CANDIDATE WILL WIN, BUT COULD FLIP AFTER OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS RECOUNT OR ANNULMENT OF VOTES)
_NATIONAL RESULTS
-Vote Share Projection
Pedro Castillo(PPNPL / Left-wing) : 50.14%
(+0.02pp From Last Election)
Keiko Fujimori(FP / Far-Right) : 49.86%
(-0.02pp From Last Election)
_DEPARTMENTAL RESULTS
-Key Races
LO(Loreto) – FUJIMORI +3.60pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>
UC(Ucayali) – FUJIMORI +3.64pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>
According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in Peru, we are projecting that it is extremely close between Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Castillo, therefore we could not project the winner this election yet.
According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round R1 BASE Projection in Peru, we are projecting that it is extremely close between Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Castillo, therefore we could not project a particular winner.
_NATIONAL PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Keiko Fujimori(FP / Far-Right) : 50.70%
(+0.82pp From Last Election)
Pedro Castillo(PPNPL / Left-wing) : 49.30%
(-0.82pp From Last Election)
_DEPARTMENTAL PROJECTIONS
-Key Races
IC(Ica) – FUJIMORI +2.32pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>
SM(San Martin) – CASTILLO +3.23pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>
According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is likely to be taken by Poland 2050, a new party led by Szymon Hołownia. Mostly due to Poland 2050’s rise, Civic Coalition is now below 100 seats. On the other hand, The Left is up on the seat level but not on the vote level, and Confederation is significantly up. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore won’t have any seats.
According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are likely to be retaining majority in the next parliament with a majority of 28 seats. Also, the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 346 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+AP+SDLP+GRN)‘s 297 by 49.
According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Germany, we are projecting that The Greens will now likely be the largest group in the next Bundestag as they make enormous gains. Oppositely, the Union parties have crashed down again and will be behind at second even with their strong grounds on individual constituencies. On the other hand, the Social Democrats have just less than 100 seats mainly due to the rise of The Greens. Alternative for Germany, Free Democrats are now steady and The Left are down slightly from the last election.
_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION
-Seat Projection (*Including Both Leveling Seats & Overhang Seats From Apr ’21)
According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will gain the majority of both chambers very likely, after being ahead of Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement by little more than 10%p.
According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in South Korea, People’s Power Party will have the supermajority and the Democrats will only manage to take much fewer than 100 seats. Continuing on, People Party is on the course to increase many seats. Justice Party is up on the seat level but not on the vote share level. Open Democrats will also gain seats, but Progressive Party and People’s Livelihood Partywill not.
_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION
-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From May ’21)
People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 224 Seats
(+61 From Apr ’21, +121 From Last Election)
Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 52 Seats
(-50 From Apr ’21, -128 From Last Election)
People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 11 Seats
(-6 From Apr ’21, +8 From Last Election)
Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 8 Seats
(-3 From Apr ’21, +2 From Last Election)
Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats
(-1 From Apr ’21, +2 From Last Election)
Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)
People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 0 Seat
(-1 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Apr ’21, -5 From Last Election)
-Proportional Vote Share Projection
People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 46.47%
(-0.13pp From Apr ’21, +12.63pp From Last Election)
Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 25.96%
(+0.31pp From Apr ’21, -9.23pp From Last Election)
People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10.82%
(-0.87pp From Apr ’21, +4.02pp From Last Election)
Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 7.68%
(-0.22pp From Apr ’21, -1.99pp From Last Election)
Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 4.55%
(+0.23pp From Apr ’21, -0.89pp From Last Election)
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.52%
(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -6.39pp From Last Election)
-Constituency Vote Share Projection
People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 57.32%
(+1.79pp From Apr ’21, +15.86pp From Last Election)
Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 39.11%
(+1.78pp From Apr ’21, -10.80pp From Last Election)
Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.37%
(+0.01pp From Apr ’21, -0.34pp From Last Election)
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.20%
(-3.58pp From Apr ’21, -4.62pp From Last Election)
-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>
Approval : 34.40%
(-1.12pp From Apr ’21, -21.80pp From Last Election)
Disapproval : 65.60%
(+1.12pp From Apr ’21, +21.80pp From Last Election)
According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in the United Kingdom(UK) Scotland, we are projecting that the Scottish Nationals could possibly gain majority in the next parliament with a majority of 1 seat at the most likeliest outcome. Also, the potential Pro-Independence Alliance(SNP+GRN+ALBA) will have a absolute majority with 76 seats, after being ahead of potential Anti-Independence Alliance(CON+LAB+LD+AFU+RUK+UKIP)‘s 53 by 23 seats.
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Seat Projection
Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 65 Seats
(+2 From Last Election)
Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 28 Seats
(-3 From Last Election)
Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 20 Seats
(-4 From Last Election)
Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 11 Seats
(+5 From Last Election)
Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats
(+0 From Last Election)
Scotland Party(ALBA / Big Tent) : 0 Seat
(NEW PARTY)
All For Unity(AFU / Big Tent) : 0 Seat
(NEW PARTY)
Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat
(NEW PARTY)
UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Last Election)
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Last Election)
-Proportional(=Regional) Vote Share Projection
Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 37.81%
(-3.91pp From Last Election)
Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 22.32%
(-0.61pp From Last Election)
Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 17.61%
(-1.46pp From Last Election)
Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 10.01%
(+3.43pp From Last Election)
Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 5.92%
(+0.70pp From Last Election)
Scotland Party(ALBA / Big Tent) : 3.10%
(NEW PARTY)
All For Unity(AFU / Big Tent) : 0.81%
(NEW PARTY)
Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0.30%
(NEW PARTY)
UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.08%
(-1.95pp From Last Election)
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.04%
(-0.41pp From Last Election)
-Constituency Vote Share Projection
Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 48.75%
According to Globe Elections UN’s April Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is projected to be taken by Poland 2050, a new party led by Szymon Hołownia. Due to Poland 2050’s rise, Civic Coalition is now below 100 seats. On the other hand, The Left is up on the seat level but not on the vote level, and Confederation is significantly up. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore will have no seat.
_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION
-Seat Projection
United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 162 Seats
(+5 From Mar ’21, -73 From Last Election)
Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 106 Seats
(-8 From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)
Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 88 Seats
(-3 From Mar ’21, -46 From Last Election)
The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 55 Seats
(+2 From Mar ’21, +6 From Last Election)
Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 48 Seats
(+4 From Mar ’21, +37 From Last Election)
German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat
(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)
Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Mar ’21, -30 From Last Election)
Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)
Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection
United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 30.24%
(+0.15pp From Mar ’21, -13.35pp From Last Election)
Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.49%
(-1.60pp From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)
Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 18.48%
(-0.95pp From Mar ’21, -8.85pp From Last Election)
Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 10.71%
(+2.36pp From Mar ’21, +3.90pp From Last Election)
The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.19%
(-0.25pp From Mar ’21, -2.38pp From Last Election)
Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.90%
(+0.63pp From Mar ’21, -3.66pp From Last Election)
Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 2.00%
(+0.71pp From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)
Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.99%
(-1.05pp From Mar ’21, +0.89pp From Last Election)
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 32.98%
Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.29%
Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 18.31%
The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.56%
Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.75%
