FEBRUARY ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Poland, United Rights will remain the largest party, but no longer with a majority, while Civic Coalition maintains its strength. There is a three way race for the third place between Poland 2050, The Left, Confederation, and Polish Coalition is back above the threshold of 5% for the first time in 2 years.

_SEAT PROJECTION

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 170 Seats

(-65 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Big Tent) : 132 Seats

(-2 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 48 Seats

(NEW PARTY)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 42 Seats

(-7 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 41 Seats

(+30 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 26 Seats

(-4 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Right-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Agreement + AGROunion(P+AU / Center-Right Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.06%

(-8.53pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Big Tent) : 28.67%

(+1.27pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 10.21%

(NEW PARTY)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 9.72%

(-2.84pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 7.97%

(+1.17pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 5.25%

(-3.30pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Right-wing Big Tent) : 1.10%

(NEW PARTY)

Agreement + AGROunion(P+AU / Center-Right Big Tent) : 0.33%

(NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.69%

(+0.59pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Poland General Election February Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 7 polling data(7,313 unweighted / 5,204 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/23 and 1/30.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.