Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 October Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

OCTOBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s October Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. With Donald Tusk’s return, Civic Coalition has managed to make a big bounce and is now up to just under last election. Poland 2050 is almost down to their starting point. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 184 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, -51 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 125 Seats

(-2 From Aug ’21, -9 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 64 Seats

(+0 From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 49 Seats

(+2 From Aug ’21, +38 From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 37 Seats

(-1 From Aug ’21, -12 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+1 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.71%

(-0.29pp From Sep ’21, -7.88pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 26.23%

(-1.04pp From Sep ’21, -1.10pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 14.05%

(+0.23pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 10.82%

(+0.27pp From Sep ’21, +4.01pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 7.57%

(-1.09pp From Sep ’21, -5.00pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.77%

(+0.99pp From Sep ’21, -4.79pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.53%

(+0.07pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.42%

(+0.20pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.90%

(+0.66pp From Sep ’21, -1.86pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 38.59%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 25.75%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 13.80%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.76%

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 7.77%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.87%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.54%

reement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.46%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.46%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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