According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in US Georgia, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Raphael Warnock the incumbent & Herschel Walker the challenger on the runoff.
2022 United States Georgia Senate Election Runoff(2nd Round) FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 10 polling data(total 10,953 unweighted / 8,005 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 11/28 and 12/5. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.
According to Globe Elections UN’s R1 BASE Projection in US Georgia, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Raphael Warnock & Herschel Walker in a rematch in just one month time.
2022 United States Georgia Senate Election Runoff(2nd Round) R1 BASE Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects the results of the 1st Round. R1 Base Projection is calculated by allocating votes of R1 based on political spectrum and support of each candidates & parties/alliances.
According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in United States, we are projecting that it is Extremely Call between Democrats & Republicans both in Seat & Vote Share level.
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Seat Projection
Democratic Party(DP / Center-Left) : 221 Seats
(-7 From Oct ’22, -1 From Last Election)
Republican Party(GOP / Center-Right) : 214 Seats
(+7 From Oct ’22, +1 From Last Election)
Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Oct ’22, +0 From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection
Democratic Party(DP / Center-Left) : 49.34%
(-1.53pp From Oct ’22, -0.93pp From Last Election)
Republican Party(GOP / Center-Right) : 49.19%
(+1.32pp From Oct ’22, +1.96pp From Last Election)
Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 1.47%
(+0.21pp From Oct ’22, -1.03pp From Last Election)
2022 United States General Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 18 polling data(total 106,795 unweighted / 15,545 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/31 and 11/7. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.
According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in United States, we are projecting that it is Too Close To Call between Republicans & Democrats, with the Republicans quite ahead. However, a opposite picture is expected in terms of governing population.
2022 United States Governor Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 83 polling data(total 73,972 unweighted / 61,389 weighted sample size) fieldwork done mostly(exception for Pennsylvania) between 10/31 and 11/7. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.
According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in United States, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Republicans & Democrats, but still the Republicans Party is leading in the overall numbers.
_NATIONAL MAP
_PENNSYLVANIA PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Mehmet Oz(GOP / Lean-Right) : 49.00%
(+0.89pp From Nov ’22, +0.23pp From Last Election)
John Fetterman(DP / Left-wing) : 48.65%
(-0.36pp From Nov ’22, +1.31pp From Last Election)
Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 2.35%
(-0.53pp From Nov ’22, -1.54pp From Last Election)
_ARIZONA PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Blake Masters(GOP / Right-wing) : 50.04%
(+1.92pp From Nov ’22, +1.23pp From Last Election)
Mark Kelly(DP / Lean-Left) : 49.52%
(-1.15pp From Nov ’22, -1.64pp From Last Election)
Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.44%
(-0.77pp From Nov ’22, +0.41pp From Last Election)
_GEORGIA PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Herschel Walker(GOP / Right-wing) : 49.20%
(+0.00pp From Nov ’22, +0.24pp From Last Election)
Raphael Warnock(DP / Center-Left) : 48.48%
(+1.25pp From Nov ’22, -2.56pp From Last Election)
Chase Oliver(LP / Big Tent) : 2.15%
(+0.20pp From Nov ’22, NEW PARTY)
Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.17%
(-1.45pp From Nov ’22, NEW PARTY)
_NEW HAMPSHIRE PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Maggie Hassan(DP / Lean-Left) : 50.02%
(+2.04pp From Last Election)
Don Bolduc(GOP / Far-Right) : 47.99%
(-2.25pp From Last Election)
Jeremy Kauffman(LP / Big Tent) : 1.58%
(-0.12pp From Last Election)
Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.41%
(+0.33pp From Last Election)
_NEVADA PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Adam Laxalt(GOP / Right-wing) : 49.97%
(+0.40pp From Nov ’22, +5.30pp From Last Election)
Catherine Cortez(DP / Lean-Left) : 47.02%
(-0.39pp From Nov ’22, -0.08pp From Last Election)
Chase Oliver(LP / Big Tent) : 0.90%
(-0.11pp From Nov ’22, NEW PARTY)
Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 2.11%
(+0.10pp From Nov ’22, -5.98pp From Last Election)
2022 United States Senate Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 85 polling data(total 77,599 unweighted / 65,709 weighted sample size) fieldwork done mostly(exception for North Carolina & Pennsylvania) between 10/31 and 11/7. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.
According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in Brazil, we are projecting it is now Extremely Close between former president Lula da Silva and incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro for the next presidency.
_NATIONAL PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 50.50%
(-0.81pp From 10/29 ’22, +5.63pp From Last Election)
Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 49.50%
(+0.81pp From 10/29 ’22, -5.63pp From Last Election)
2022 Brazil Presidential Election R2 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 23 polling data(total 120,217 unweighted / 112,040 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/22 and 10/29 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.
(+0.98pp From 10/28 ’22, +6.44pp From Last Election)
Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 48.69%
(-0.98pp From 10/28 ’22, -6.44pp From Last Election)
_TREND
_AGE
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2022 10/29 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 14 polling data(total 41,978 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/20 and 10/27 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.
(-0.30pp From 10/27 ’22, +5.46pp From Last Election)
Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 49.67%
(+0.30pp From 10/27 ’22, -5.46pp From Last Election)
_TREND
_AGE
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2022 10/28 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 16 polling data(total 37,404 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/19 and 10/26 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.
(+0.40pp From 10/26 ’22, +5.76pp From Last Election)
Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 49.37%
(-0.40pp From 10/26 ’22, -5.76pp From Last Election)
_TREND
_AGE
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2022 10/27 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 18 polling data(total 44,819 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/18 and 10/25 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.
(+0.34pp From 10/25 ’22, +5.36pp From Last Election)
Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 49.77%
(-0.34pp From 10/25 ’22, -5.36pp From Last Election)
_TREND
_AGE
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2022 10/26 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 16 polling data(total 49,831 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/17 and 10/24 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.
(+0.44pp From 10/23 ’22, -5.02pp From Last Election)
Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 49.89%
(-0.44pp From 10/23 ’22, +5.02pp From Last Election)
_TREND
_AGE
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2022 10/25 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 12 polling data(total 42,841 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/16 and 10/23 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.
Global Elections History Society Center (GEHSC.en) 