2024 February Week 1

Joe Biden(DEM / Lean-Left)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent)

Robert Kennedy(IND DEM / Center-Left Big Tent)

Cornel West(IND SOC / Left-wing)

NATIONAL

PRESIDENTIAL

BIDEN 43.84 (+2.77) TRUMP 45.60 (-0.26) KENNEDY 7.99 (-2.49) WEST 1.31 (+0.04) (Comparison With Last Week)

GENERAL

GOP 50.14 (+2.94) DPK 49.11 (+4.01)

GOP PRIMARY

TRUMP 77.24 (-0.73) / HALEY 19.17 (+3.61)

DEM PRIMARY

BIDEN 86.32 (+6.20) / MARIANNE 8.79 (+3.75) / PHILLIPS 4.89 (+0.09)

STATE

NATIONAL MAP BASED ON THIS PROJECTION

BIDEN 32.42 (+3.34) TRUMP 60.03 (-1.51) KENNEDY 5.78 (-1.64) WEST 0.90 (-0.02)

BIDEN 32.54 (+3.12) TRUMP 44.78 (+0.32) KENNEDY 13.57 (-4.69) WEST 2.51 (-0.12)

BIDEN 42.78 (+2.15) TRUMP 48.28 (-1.11) KENNEDY 8.67 (-1.08) WEST 0.26 (+0.04)

BIDEN 28.08 (+3.52) TRUMP 54.99 (+0.01) KENNEDY 9.97 (-2.50) WEST 1.41 (+0.01)

BIDEN 55.06 (+4.63) TRUMP 32.14 (-1.21) KENNEDY 9.08 (-3.94) WEST 3.00 (-0.10)

BIDEN 45.94 (+2.98) TRUMP 39.53 (-0.22) KENNEDY 11.17 (-2.63) WEST 1.34 (+0.11)

BIDEN 49.97 (+1.49) TRUMP 38.11 (-1.94) KENNEDY 9.78 (+0.32) WEST 2.02 (+0.10)

BIDEN 51.87 (+4.35) TRUMP 38.34 (-1.81) KENNEDY 7.76 (-2.41) WEST 1.86 (-0.08)

BIDEN 77.39 (+4.99) TRUMP 4.95 (-0.34) KENNEDY 7.79 (-2.64) WEST 3.11 (-0.20)

BIDEN 43.38 (+3.78) TRUMP 50.67 (-2.21) KENNEDY 4.78 (-1.46) WEST 0.83 (-0.03)

BIDEN 41.91 (+1.43) TRUMP 48.71 (-1.57) KENNEDY 7.36 (-1.61) WEST 1.48 (+1.37)

BIDEN 44.99 (+2.95) TRUMP 37.94 (-0.99) KENNEDY 7.68 (-2.99) WEST 2.53 (-0.21)

BIDEN 55.06 (+3.78) TRUMP 32.98 (-0.75) KENNEDY 8.00 (-3.08) WEST 2.55 (-0.20)

BIDEN 27.28 (+2.78) TRUMP 58.66 (+0.80) KENNEDY 11.89 (-4.00) WEST 0.19 (-0.01)

BIDEN 48.70 (+3.36) TRUMP 38.31 (-1.48) KENNEDY 8.82 (-2.56) WEST 3.01 (+0.65)

BIDEN 35.03 (+3.24) TRUMP 54.43 (-0.68) KENNEDY 10.15 (-2.62) WEST 0.16 (+0.04)

BIDEN 37.97 (+3.13) TRUMP 50.13 (-1.18) KENNEDY 8.24 (-2.24) WEST 0.86 (+0.20)

BIDEN 34.89 (+3.27) TRUMP 52.68 (-0.58) KENNEDY 11.21 (-2.87) WEST 0.67 (+0.16)

BIDEN 31.50 (+3.49) TRUMP 59.05 (-0.97) KENNEDY 9.13 (-2.48) WEST 0.16 (-0.01)

BIDEN 34.73 (+3.69) TRUMP 55.62 (-1.19) KENNEDY 7.60 (-2.11) WEST 0.20 (+0.00)

BIDEN 40.60 (+1.22) TRUMP 38.79 (-1.97) KENNEDY 16.56 (+0.54) WEST 3.96 (+0.19)

BIDEN 54.56 (+5.03) TRUMP 29.30 (-1.10) KENNEDY 9.37 (-2.79) WEST 2.16 (-0.07)

BIDEN 53.03 (+0.83) TRUMP 29.94 (-1.99) KENNEDY 11.02 (+0.21) WEST 2.14 (+0.07)

BIDEN 44.02 (+3.27) TRUMP 46.44 (-1.51) KENNEDY 7.24 (-2.05) WEST 1.20 (+0.27)

BIDEN 45.15 (+4.79) TRUMP 42.99 (-0.45) KENNEDY 8.77 (-4.12) WEST 1.38 (+0.14)

BIDEN 35.91 (+3.68) TRUMP 55.00 (-1.43) KENNEDY 5.55 (-1.57) WEST 0.49 (-0.01)

BIDEN 34.91 (+2.65) TRUMP 54.20 (-0.90) KENNEDY 8.55 (-2.03) WEST 1.35 (+0.34)

BIDEN 34.73 (+3.35) TRUMP 54.31 (+0.42) KENNEDY 10.93 (-3.77) WEST 0.01 (+0.00)

BIDEN 32.62 (+3.01) TRUMP 54.13 (-0.69) KENNEDY 10.56 (-2.73) WEST 1.47 (+0.34)

BIDEN 43.03 (+2.71) TRUMP 45.65 (-1.32) KENNEDY 4.56 (-1.80) WEST 3.04 (-0.26)

BIDEN 43.72 (+1.31) TRUMP 43.34 (-2.22) KENNEDY 10.50 (+0.35) WEST 0.12 (+0.01)

BIDEN 47.69 (+1.17) TRUMP 39.68 (-2.25) KENNEDY 7.56 (+0.21) WEST 1.61 (+0.06)

BIDEN 46.08 (+3.59) TRUMP 41.13 (-0.52) KENNEDY 8.64 (-3.22) WEST 2.47 (-0.17)

BIDEN 52.10 (+1.53) TRUMP 37.24 (-1.92) KENNEDY 8.88 (+0.29) WEST 1.70 (+0.08)

BIDEN 41.71 (+3.19) TRUMP 47.80 (-1.60) KENNEDY 6.52 (-1.02) WEST 1.22 (+0.24)

BIDEN 25.72 (+2.65) TRUMP 58.86 (-0.05) KENNEDY 12.57 (-3.06) WEST 1.56 (+0.38)

BIDEN 39.16 (+3.09) TRUMP 51.75 (-1.14) KENNEDY 7.38 (-2.28) WEST 1.53 (+0.34)

BIDEN 26.35 (+3.28) TRUMP 58.26 (-0.03) KENNEDY 11.50 (-2.90) WEST 1.98 (+0.01)

BIDEN 45.78 (+3.40) TRUMP 36.47 (-0.60) KENNEDY 10.06 (-3.80) WEST 1.79 (-0.13)

BIDEN 43.86 (-0.39) TRUMP 46.79 (-1.12) KENNEDY 8.65 (+1.35) WEST 0.35 (+0.08)

BIDEN 48.71 (+0.83) TRUMP 36.49 (-2.38) KENNEDY 8.15 (+0.17) WEST 0.69 (+0.02)

BIDEN 38.19 (+3.81) TRUMP 52.90 (-1.54) KENNEDY 7.73 (-2.22) WEST 1.19 (-0.03)

BIDEN 28.62 (+2.10) TRUMP 58.17 (+0.89) KENNEDY 13.20 (-3.00) WEST 0.00 (=0.00)

BIDEN 32.09 (+3.58) TRUMP 56.74 (-0.89) KENNEDY 8.70 (-2.36) WEST 0.95 (-0.01)

BIDEN 40.87 (+2.56) TRUMP 49.97 (-0.25) KENNEDY 7.48 (-2.20) WEST 1.29 (+0.51)

BIDEN 29.33 (+3.07) TRUMP 50.46 (+0.85) KENNEDY 14.44 (-4.79) WEST 1.44 (-0.05)

BIDEN 49.96 (-0.12) TRUMP 26.72 (-2.30) KENNEDY 10.51 (+0.01) WEST 1.57 (+0.03)

BIDEN 47.60 (+4.31) TRUMP 42.25 (-1.67) KENNEDY 7.69 (-2.31) WEST 1.25 (-0.05)

BIDEN 46.94 (+3.58) TRUMP 34.97 (-0.51) KENNEDY 10.60 (-3.98) WEST 2.03 (-0.15)

BIDEN 25.40 (+2.97) TRUMP 64.08 (-0.60) KENNEDY 8.63 (-2.27) WEST 1.38 (-0.01)

BIDEN 42.44 (+2.91) TRUMP 46.72 (-1.89) KENNEDY 6.71 (-1.36) WEST 0.59 (+0.45)

BIDEN 20.72 (+2.14) TRUMP 60.80 (+0.93) KENNEDY 11.35 (-3.79) WEST 3.21 (-0.13)

GENDER

BIDEN 39.44 (-0.98) TRUMP 50.61 (+2.77) KENNEDY 7.43 (-2.12) WEST 1.47 (+0.58)

BIDEN 47.48 (+5.19) TRUMP 41.18 (-2.38) KENNEDY 8.37 (-2.82) WEST 1.39 (-0.22)

AGE

BIDEN 45.64 (+4.36) TRUMP 39.48 (-1.75) KENNEDY 10.16 (-3.06) WEST 2.58 (+0.32)

BIDEN 44.30 (+2.38) TRUMP 42.74 (-0.66) KENNEDY 9.89 (-1.67) WEST 1.62 (+0.05)

BIDEN 41.30 (+1.53) TRUMP 49.61 (+1.49) KENNEDY 7.07 (-2.63) WEST 0.92 (-0.12)

BIDEN 43.94 (+1.08) TRUMP 48.53 (+0.18) KENNEDY 5.76 (-2.03) WEST 0.88 (+0.40)

RACE

BIDEN 37.79 (+2.27) TRUMP 52.63 (+0.23) KENNEDY 7.49 (-2.09) WEST 0.90 (-0.19)

BIDEN 47.60 (+1.62) TRUMP 38.33 (-1.01) KENNEDY 10.08 (-0.59) WEST 2.01 (-0.50)

BIDEN 71.06 (+3.69) TRUMP 16.30 (-2.26) KENNEDY 8.00 (-0.77) WEST 3.17 (-0.98)

BIDEN 50.29 (+11.33) TRUMP 37.83 (-8.95) KENNEDY 9.36 (+0.65) WEST 1.66 (-0.93)

ELECTORAL RATING

Tossup => Pennsylvania / Michigan / Maine / New Hampshire / Minnesota / Wisconsin / Nevada

Lean DEM => New Mexico

Lean GOP => Arizona

Likely DEM => Guam / Virginia / New Jersey / Colorado / Oregon

Likely GOP => Florida / Georgia / North Carolina / Texas

METHODOLOGY

America

[El Salvador Presidential Election]2024 CHATGPT Projection / Prediction / Forecast

4th Feb 20245th Feb 2024 mglee05

CHATGPT ’24 PROJECTION

_PRESIDENTIAL PROJECTION – NATIONAL

Nayib Bukele(NI / Big Tent) : 88.16%

(+34.75pp From Last Election)

Manuel Flores(FMLN / Far-Left) : 4.47%

(-9.94pp From Last Election)

Joel Sánchez(ARENA / Center-Right) : 3.68%

(-27.74pp From Last Election)

Luis Parada(NT / Center-Left) : 1.77%

(+0.90pp From Last Election)

Javier Renderos(FS / Right-wing) : 0.98%

(NEWLY CONTESTED)

Marina Murillo(FPS / Far-Right) : 0.94%

(NEWLY CONTESTED)

_PRESIDENTIAL PROJECTION – DEPARTMENTS

Morazán NI +69.85pp – FMLN Manuel Flores 11.05% VS NI Nayib Bukele 80.90% VS ARENA Joel Sánchez 4.67%

Ahuachapán NI +76.40pp – FMLN Manuel Flores 7.42% VS NI Nayib Bukele 83.82% VS ARENA Joel Sánchez 4.92%

Chalatenango NI +76.71pp – FMLN Manuel Flores 7.88% VS NI Nayib Bukele 84.59% VS ARENA Joel Sánchez 4.29%

Usulután NI +77.46pp – FMLN Manuel Flores 8.28% VS NI Nayib Bukele 85.74% VS ARENA Joel Sánchez 3.29%

San Vicente NI +77.84pp – FMLN Manuel Flores 7.55% VS NI Nayib Bukele 85.39% VS ARENA Joel Sánchez 4.06%

Cabañas NI +81.68pp – FMLN Manuel Flores 4.45% VS NI Nayib Bukele 86.81% VS ARENA Joel Sánchez 5.13%

San Miguel NI +81.91pp – FMLN Manuel Flores 6.31% VS NI Nayib Bukele 88.22% VS ARENA Joel Sánchez 2.76%

Cuscatlán NI +82.50pp – FMLN Manuel Flores 5.08% VS NI Nayib Bukele 87.58% VS ARENA Joel Sánchez 4.17%

La Libertad NI +83.38pp – FMLN Manuel Flores 3.12% VS NI Nayib Bukele 87.79% VS ARENA Joel Sánchez 4.41%

Sonsonate NI +83.73pp – FMLN Manuel Flores 4.64% VS NI Nayib Bukele 88.37% VS ARENA Joel Sánchez 3.69%

Santa Ana NI +84.78pp – FMLN Manuel Flores 3.29% VS NI Nayib Bukele 88.60% VS ARENA Joel Sánchez 3.82%

La Unión NI +85.18pp – FMLN Manuel Flores 4.11% VS NI Nayib Bukele 89.29% VS ARENA Joel Sánchez 3.65%

San Salvador NI +86.56pp – FMLN Manuel Flores 3.03% VS NI Nayib Bukele 89.77% VS ARENA Joel Sánchez 3.21%

La Paz NI +86.61pp – FMLN Manuel Flores 3.68% VS NI Nayib Bukele 90.29% VS ARENA Joel Sánchez 3.23%

Exterior NI +95.35pp – FMLN Manuel Flores 2.00% VS NI Nayib Bukele 97.35% VS ARENA Joel Sánchez 0.36%

_GENERAL PROJECTION – SEAT

New Ideas(NI / Big Tent) : 51 Seats

(-5 From Last Election)

Grand Alliance For National Unity(GANA / Lean-Right) : 4 Seats

(-1 From Last Election)

Nationalist Republican Alliance(ARENA / Center-Right) : 2 Seats

(-12 From Last Election)

Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front(FMLN / Left-wing) : 2 Seats

(-2 From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Party(PDC / Lean-Left) : 1 Seat

(=0 From Last Election)

National Coalition Party(PCN / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(=0 From Last Election)

Let’s Go(VAMOS / Center) : 0 Seat

(=0 From Last Election)

Our Time(NT / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(=0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(=0 From Last Election)

_GENERAL PROJECTION – VOTE

New Ideas(NI / Big Tent) : 79.64%

(+13.06pp From Last Election)

Nationalist Republican Alliance(ARENA / Center-Right) : 6.34%

(-5.84pp From Last Election)

Grand Alliance For National Unity(GANA / Lean-Right) : 4.67%

(-0.50pp From Last Election)

Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front(FMLN / Left-wing) : 3.94%

(-2.97pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Party(PDC / Lean-Left) : 1.73%

(+0.03pp From Last Election)

National Coalition Party(PCN / Big Tent) : 1.68%

(-2.40pp From Last Election)

Let’s Go(VAMOS / Center) : 0.83%

(-0.18pp From Last Election)

Our Time(NT / Center-Left) : 0.65%

(-1.05pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0.52%

(-0.15pp From Last Election)

GENERAL PROJECTION – DEPARTMENTS

Only 2%+ Shown

Ahuachapán – NI 76.10, PCN 7.35, GANA 6.05, ARENA 5.69, FMLN 3.67

Cabañas – NI 84.78, ARENA 7.93, PCN 4.22, FMLN 3.08

Chalatenango – NI 77.73, FMLN 7.95, PCN 6.96, ARENA 6.92

Cuscatlán – NI 84.05, ARENA 5.42, FMLN 5.10, PCN 3.92

La Libertad – NI 79.03, ARENA 8.62, GANA 4.10, FMLN 2.53

La Paz – NI 78.85, GANA 9.16, ARENA 7.10, FMLN 2.85

La Unión – NI 88.29, ARENA 8.08, FMLN 2.47

Morazán – NI 66.10, GANA 13.48, FMLN 9.67, ARENA 8.57

San Miguel – NI 67.18, PDC 12.26, GANA 8.48, FMLN 6.57, ARENA 4.59

San Salvador – NI 82.11, ARENA 5.84, GANA 3.47, FMLN 3.19

Santa Ana – NI 81.87, GANA 5.49, ARENA 4.96, PDC 2.87, PCN 2.06

San Vicente – NI 81.67, ARENA 9.64, FMLN 6.31

Sonsonate – NI 79.99, GANA 7.12, ARENA 5.33, FMLN 2.85, PCN 2.59

Usulután – NI 78.99, FMLN 7.65, GANA 6.79, ARENA 4.87

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2024 El Salvador Presidential Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 4 polling data(6,769 unweighted sample size) fieldwork done during the campaigning period. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

America

[Chile Constitutional Referendum]2023 FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

17th Dec 202317th Dec 2023 mglee05

FINAL ’23 PROJECTION

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Chile, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between For, led by José Kast & Gabriel Boric’s Against.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

Against(CEC / Left-wing Big Tent) : 50.07%

(+11.96pp From Last Election)

For(CAF / Right-wing Big Tent) : 49.93%

(-11.96pp From Last Election)

_REGIONAL PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

Antofagasta CAF +2.56pp – CEC Against 48.72% VS 51.28% For CAF <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Aysén CAF +2.74pp – CEC Against 48.63% VS 51.37% For CAF <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Coquimbo CEC +3.20pp – CEC Against 51.60% VS 48.40% For CAF <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Coquimbo CEC +3.86pp – CEC Against 51.93% VS 48.07% For CAF <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Magallanes CEC +6.38pp – CEC Against 53.19% VS 46.81% For CAF <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

O’Higgins CAF +6.98pp – CEC Against 46.51% VS 53.49% For CAF <CAF EDGE>

Valparaíso CEC +8.56pp – CEC Against 54.28% VS 45.72% For CAF <CEC EDGE>

Los Ríos CAF +9.28pp – CEC Against 45.36% VS 54.64% For CAF <CAF EDGE>

-Other Races

Arica & Parinacota CAF +10.40pp – CEC Against 44.80% VS 55.20% For CAF <CAF AHEAD>

Tarapacá CAF +13.72pp – CEC Against 43.14% VS 56.86% For CAF <CAF AHEAD>

Santiago CEC +13.72pp – CEC Against 56.86% VS 43.14% For CAF <CEC AHEAD>

Los Lagos CAF +14.50pp – CEC Against 42.75% VS 57.25% For CAF <CAF AHEAD>

Biobío CAF +15.86pp – CEC Against 42.07% VS 57.93% For CAF <CAF AHEAD>

Maule CAF +21.00pp – CEC Against 39.50% VS 60.50% For CAF <CAF AHEAD>

Araucanía CAF +26.06pp – CEC Against 36.97% VS 63.03% For CAF <CAF AHEAD>

Ñuble CAF +27.44pp – CEC Against 36.28% VS 63.72% For CAF <CAF AHEAD>

Extranjero CEC +50.30pp – CEC Against 75.15% VS 24.85% For CAF <CEC AHEAD>

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Chile Constitutional Referendum FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 14 polling data(42,916 unweighted / 38,546 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 11/25 and 12/2.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

America

[Argentina Presidential Election]2023 R2 FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

20th Nov 202320th Nov 2023 mglee05

R2 FINAL ’23 PROJECTION

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s R2 FINAL Projection in Argentina, we are projecting that it is Too Close To Call between Javier Milei & Sergio Massa.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

Javier Milei(LLA / Far-Right) : 52.21%

(+0.47pp From Nov ’23, +8.75pp From Last Election)

Sergio Massa(UP / Center) : 49.63%

(-0.47pp From Nov ’23, -8.75pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

Río Negro LLA +0.60pp – UP Sergio Massa 49.70% VS 50.30% Javier Milei LLA <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Chaco LLA +0.66pp – UP Sergio Massa 49.67% VS 50.33% Javier Milei LLA <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Santa Cruz LLA +2.24pp – UP Sergio Massa 48.88% VS 51.12% Javier Milei LLA <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Buenos Aires (P) UP +3.62pp – UP Sergio Massa 51.81% VS 48.19% Javier Milei LLA <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Tucumán UP +3.90pp – UP Sergio Massa 48.05% VS 51.95% Javier Milei LLA <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

La Rioja UP +4.32pp – UP Sergio Massa 52.16% VS 47.84% Javier Milei LLA <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Catamarca UP +4.88pp – UP Sergio Massa 52.44% VS 47.56% Javier Milei LLA <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Salta LLA +4.96pp – UP Sergio Massa 47.52% VS 52.48% Javier Milei LLA <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Tierra Del Fuego UP +5.56pp – UP Sergio Massa 47.22% VS 52.78% Javier Milei LLA <UP EDGE>

La Pampa LLA +7.66pp – UP Sergio Massa 46.17% VS 53.83% Javier Milei LLA <LLA EDGE>

Chubut LLA +8.24pp – UP Sergio Massa 45.88% VS 54.12% Javier Milei LLA <LLA EDGE>

Córdoba LLA +9.28pp – UP Sergio Massa 45.36% VS 54.64% Javier Milei LLA <LLA EDGE>

Misiones LLA +10.00pp – UP Sergio Massa 45.00% VS 55.00% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

-Other Races

Neuquén LLA +11.46pp – UP Sergio Massa 44.27% VS 55.73% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Jujuy LLA +11.50pp – UP Sergio Massa 44.25% VS 55.75% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

San Juan LLA +13.46pp – UP Sergio Massa 43.27% VS 56.73% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Formosa UP +14.26pp – UP Sergio Massa 57.13% VS 42.87% Javier Milei LLA <UP AHEAD>

Corrientes LLA +14.90pp – UP Sergio Massa 42.55% VS 57.45% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Santa Fe LLA +15.70pp – UP Sergio Massa 42.15% VS 57.85% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Entre Rios LLA +16.44pp – UP Sergio Massa 41.78% VS 58.22% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Buenos Aires (C) LLA +19.38pp – UP Sergio Massa 40.31% VS 59.69% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

San Luis LLA +25.52pp – UP Sergio Massa 37.24% VS 62.76% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Mendoza LLA +33.58pp – UP Sergio Massa 33.21% VS 66.79% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Santiago Del Estero UP +40.98pp – UP Sergio Massa 70.49% VS 29.51% Javier Milei LLA <UP AHEAD>

_CHATGPT PROJECTION

Javier Milei(LLA / Far-Right) : 51.86%

Sergio Massa(UP / Center) : 48.14%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Argentina Presidential Election R2 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 29 polling data(102,358 unweighted / 90,344 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 11/2 and 11/9.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

America

[Argentina Presidential Election]2023 R2 First Projection / Prediction / Forecast

13th Nov 202314th Nov 2023 mglee05

R2 FIRST ’23 PROJECTION

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s R2 First Projection in Argentina, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Javier Milei & Sergio Massa.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

Javier Milei(LLA / Far-Right) : 50.37%

(-3.43pp From R1 Base ’23, +6.91pp From Last Election)

Sergio Massa(UP / Center) : 49.63%

(+3.43pp From R1 Base ’23, -6.91pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

Salta LLA +1.28pp – UP Sergio Massa 49.36% VS 50.64% Javier Milei LLA <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Santa Cruz UP +1.46pp – UP Sergio Massa 50.73% VS 49.27% Javier Milei LLA <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Chaco UP +3.04pp – UP Sergio Massa 51.52% VS 48.48% Javier Milei LLA <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Río Negro UP +3.10pp – UP Sergio Massa 51.55% VS 48.45% Javier Milei LLA <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

La Pampa LLA +3.98pp – UP Sergio Massa 48.01% VS 51.99% Javier Milei LLA <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Chubut LLA +4.56pp – UP Sergio Massa 47.72% VS 52.28% Javier Milei LLA <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Córdoba LLA +5.60pp – UP Sergio Massa 47.20% VS 52.80% Javier Milei LLA <LLA EDGE>

Misiones LLA +6.34pp – UP Sergio Massa 46.83% VS 53.17% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Buenos Aires (P) UP +7.30pp – UP Sergio Massa 53.65% VS 46.35% Javier Milei LLA <UP EDGE>

Tucumán UP +7.58pp – UP Sergio Massa 53.79% VS 46.21% Javier Milei LLA <UP EDGE>

Neuquén LLA +7.80pp – UP Sergio Massa 46.10% VS 53.90% Javier Milei LLA <LLA EDGE>

Jujuy LLA +7.84pp – UP Sergio Massa 46.08% VS 53.92% Javier Milei LLA <LLA EDGE>

La Rioja UP +8.00pp – UP Sergio Massa 54.00% VS 46.00% Javier Milei LLA <UP EDGE>

Catamarca UP +8.56pp – UP Sergio Massa 54.27% VS 45.73% Javier Milei LLA <UP EDGE>

Tierra Del Fuego UP +9.24pp – UP Sergio Massa 54.62% VS 45.38% Javier Milei LLA <UP EDGE>

San Juan LLA +9.82pp – UP Sergio Massa 45.09% VS 54.91% Javier Milei LLA <LLA EDGE>

-Other Races

Corrientes LLA +11.26pp – UP Sergio Massa 44.37% VS 55.63% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Santa Fe LLA +12.08pp – UP Sergio Massa 43.96% VS 56.04% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Entre Rios LLA +12.84pp – UP Sergio Massa 43.58% VS 56.42% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Buenos Aires (C) LLA +15.80pp – UP Sergio Massa 42.10% VS 57.90% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Formosa UP +17.86pp – UP Sergio Massa 58.93% VS 41.07% Javier Milei LLA <UP AHEAD>

San Luis LLA +22.04pp – UP Sergio Massa 38.98% VS 61.02% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Mendoza LLA +30.28pp – UP Sergio Massa 34.86% VS 65.14% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Santiago Del Estero UP +44.02pp – UP Sergio Massa 72.01% VS 27.99% Javier Milei LLA <UP AHEAD>

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Argentina Presidential Election R2 First Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 8 polling data(25,428 unweighted / 19,287 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/6 and 10/13.

Poll+Error Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data, plus actual error on the 1st Round.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

America

[Argentina Presidential Election]2023 R1 BASE Projection / Prediction / Forecast

9th Nov 20239th Nov 2023 mglee05

R1 BASE ’23 PROJECTION

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s R1 BASE Projection in Argentina, we are projecting that Javier Milei Edging over Sergio Massa.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

Javier Milei(LLA / Far-Right) : 53.80%

(+10.34pp From Last Election)

Sergio Massa(UP / Center) : 46.20%

(-10.34pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

Buenos Aires (P) UP +0.44pp – UP Sergio Massa 50.22% VS 49.78% Javier Milei LLA <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Tucumán UP +0.70pp – UP Sergio Massa 49.65% VS 50.35% Javier Milei LLA <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

La Rioja UP +1.14pp – UP Sergio Massa 50.57% VS 49.43% Javier Milei LLA <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Catamarca UP +1.68pp – UP Sergio Massa 50.84% VS 49.16% Javier Milei LLA <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Tierra Del Fuego UP +2.38pp – UP Sergio Massa 51.19% VS 48.81% Javier Milei LLA <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Río Negro LLA +3.78pp – UP Sergio Massa 48.11% VS 51.89% Javier Milei LLA <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Chaco LLA +3.84pp – UP Sergio Massa 48.08% VS 51.92% Javier Milei LLA <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Santa Cruz LLA +5.42pp – UP Sergio Massa 47.29% VS 52.71% Javier Milei LLA <LLA EDGE>

Salta LLA +8.14pp – UP Sergio Massa 45.93% VS 54.07% Javier Milei LLA <LLA EDGE>

-Other Races

La Pampa LLA +10.82pp – UP Sergio Massa 44.59% VS 55.41% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Formosa UP +11.12pp – UP Sergio Massa 44.44% VS 55.56% Javier Milei LLA <UP AHEAD>

Chubut LLA +11.40pp – UP Sergio Massa 44.30% VS 55.70% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Córdoba LLA +12.44pp – UP Sergio Massa 43.78% VS 56.22% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Misiones LLA +13.16pp – UP Sergio Massa 43.42% VS 56.58% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Neuquén LLA +14.60pp – UP Sergio Massa 42.70% VS 57.30% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Jujuy LLA +14.64pp – UP Sergio Massa 42.68% VS 57.32% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

San Juan LLA +16.58pp – UP Sergio Massa 41.71% VS 58.29% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Corrientes LLA +18.00pp – UP Sergio Massa 41.00% VS 59.00% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Santa Fe LLA +18.78pp – UP Sergio Massa 40.61% VS 59.39% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Entre Rios LLA +19.54pp – UP Sergio Massa 40.23% VS 59.77% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Buenos Aires (C) LLA +22.42pp – UP Sergio Massa 38.79% VS 61.21% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

San Luis LLA +28.48pp – UP Sergio Massa 35.76% VS 64.24% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Mendoza LLA +36.38pp – UP Sergio Massa 31.81% VS 68.19% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

Santiago Del Estero UP +38.30pp – UP Sergio Massa 30.85% VS 69.15% Javier Milei LLA <LLA AHEAD>

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Argentina Presidential Election R1 BASE Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects the results of the 1st Round. R1 BASE Projection is calculated by allocating votes of R1 based on political spectrum and support of each candidates & parties/alliances.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

America

[Argentina Presidential Election]2023 R1 FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

23rd Oct 202323rd Oct 2023 mglee05

R1 FINAL ’23 PROJECTION

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s R1 FINAL Projection in Argentina, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Javier Milei & Sergio Massa..

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

Javier Milei(LLA / Far-Right) : 33.26%

(-1.83pp From Oct ’23, +30.08pp From Last Election)

Sergio Massa(UP / Center) : 31.34%

(+1.01pp From Oct ’23, -16.90pp From Last Election)

Patricia Bullrich(JxC / Right-wing) : 25.45%

(-2.19pp From Oct ’23, -14.83pp From Last Election)

Juan Schiaretti(HNP / Lean-Right) : 6.02%

(+1.86pp From Oct ’23, -0.12pp From Last Election)

Myriam Bregman(FIT-U / Left-wing) : 3.93%

(+1.15pp From Oct ’23, +1.77pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

Corrientes UP +0.74pp – UP Sergio Massa 32.91% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 30.83% VS LLA Javier Milei 32.17%

Tucumán LLA +2.43pp – UP Sergio Massa 36.86% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 19.28% VS LLA Javier Milei 39.29%

Entre Rios UP +3.74pp – UP Sergio Massa 36.14% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 32.40% VS LLA Javier Milei 27.26%

Tierra Del Fuego LLA +4.08pp – UP Sergio Massa 33.21% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 17.96% VS LLA Javier Milei 37.29%

La Pampa LLA +4.62pp – UP Sergio Massa 30.84% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 24.80% VS LLA Javier Milei 35.46%

San Juan LLA +5.57pp – UP Sergio Massa 32.25% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 25.13% VS LLA Javier Milei 37.82%

La Rioja LLA +5.71pp – UP Sergio Massa 32.41% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 17.33% VS LLA Javier Milei 38.12%

Córdoba HNP +6.19pp – HNP Juan Schiaretti 37.99% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 19.39% VS LLA Javier Milei 31.80%

Chaco UP +7.44pp – UP Sergio Massa 39.33% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 23.94% VS LLA Javier Milei 31.89%

Buenos Aires (P) UP +9.54pp – UP Sergio Massa 37.90% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 27.13% VS LLA Javier Milei 28.36%

Río Negro LLA +9.99pp – UP Sergio Massa 31.01% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 19.00% VS LLA Javier Milei 41.00%

-Other Races

Santa Fe LLA +10.47pp – UP Sergio Massa 24.54% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 28.26% VS LLA Javier Milei 38.73%

Santa Cruz LLA +11.27pp – UP Sergio Massa 31.08% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 18.60% VS LLA Javier Milei 42.35%

Buenos Aires (C) JxC +16.39pp – UP Sergio Massa 27.80% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 44.19% VS LLA Javier Milei 19.99%

Misiones LLA +16.73pp – UP Sergio Massa 30.67% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 16.94% VS LLA Javier Milei 47.40%

Chubut LLA +17.29pp – UP Sergio Massa 26.11% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 21.67% VS LLA Javier Milei 43.40%

Neuquén LLA +17.94pp – UP Sergio Massa 26.79% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 18.32% VS LLA Javier Milei 44.73%

Catamarca UP +18.45pp – UP Sergio Massa 47.02% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 19.53% VS LLA Javier Milei 28.57%

Jujuy LLA +20.20pp – UP Sergio Massa 23.45% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 21.37% VS LLA Javier Milei 43.65%

Formosa UP +22.48pp – UP Sergio Massa 50.27% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 19.18% VS LLA Javier Milei 27.78%

Mendoza LLA +23.72pp – UP Sergio Massa 20.20% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 24.85% VS LLA Javier Milei 48.57%

Salta LLA +24.13pp – UP Sergio Massa 27.54% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 14.58% VS LLA Javier Milei 51.67%

Santiago Del Estero UP +29.37pp – UP Sergio Massa 58.03% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 9.21% VS LLA Javier Milei 28.66%

San Luis LLA +31.48pp – UP Sergio Massa 20.01% VS JxC Patricia Bullrich 20.77% VS LLA Javier Milei 52.25%

_GENERAL ELECTION

Union For The Homeland(UP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 32.24%

(+1.04pp From Oct ’23, -1.93pp From Last Election)

Liberty Advances(LLA / Far-Right) : 30.64%

(-1.69pp From Oct ’23, +23.41pp From Last Election)

Together For Change(JxC / Center-Right Big Tent) : 26.59%

(-2.29pp From Oct ’23, -15.54pp From Last Election)

We Do For Our Country(HNP / Center) : 5.76%

(+1.78pp From Oct ’23, +0.25pp From Last Election)

Workers’ Left Front – Unity(FIT-U / Left-wing) : 4.24%

(+1.24pp From Oct ’23, -1.29pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTR / Mixed) : 0.51%

(-0.09pp From Oct ’23, -4.92pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Argentina Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 17 polling data(58,607 unweighted / 49,632 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/6 and 10/13.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

America

[Ecuador Presidential Election]2023 R2 FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

13th Oct 202323rd Oct 2023 mglee05

R2 FINAL ’23 PROJECTION

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Ecuador, we are projecting that it is Too Close To Call between Luisa González & Daniel Noboa.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

Daniel Noboa(ADN / Center-Left) : 52.29%

(+1.92pp From R1 BASE ’23, -0.07pp From Last Election)

Luisa González(RC / Left-wing) : 49.63%

(-1.92pp From R1 BASE ’23, +0.07pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

-Other Races

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Ecuador Presidential Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 14 polling data(69,344 unweighted / 62,145 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/3 and 10/10.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

America

[Ecuador Presidential Election]2023 R1 BASE Projection / Prediction / Forecast

7th Oct 2023 mglee05

R1 BASE ’23 PROJECTION

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s R1 BASE Projection in Ecuador, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Luisa González & Daniel Noboa.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

Daniel Noboa(ADN / Center-Left) : 50.37%

(-1.99pp From Last Election)

Luisa González(RC / Left-wing) : 49.63%

(+1.99pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

-Other Races

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Ecuador Presidential Election R1 BASE Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects the results of the 1st Round.. R1 BASE Projection is calculated by allocating votes of R1 based on political spectrum and support of each candidates & parties/alliances.