America

[Peru Presidential Election]2021 2nd Round FINAL Results

LATEST RESULTS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round LIVE Projection in Peru, we are calling that Pedro Castillo is the apparent winner after a extremely close fight with Keiko Fujimori.

(***APPARENT WINNER IS NOT PROJECTED WINNER, IT MEANS WE CAN CALL THAT CANDIDATE WILL WIN, BUT COULD FLIP AFTER OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS RECOUNT OR ANNULMENT OF VOTES)

_NATIONAL RESULTS

-Vote Share Projection

Pedro Castillo(PPNPL / Left-wing) : 50.14%

(+0.02pp From Last Election)

Keiko Fujimori(FP / Far-Right) : 49.86%

(-0.02pp From Last Election)

_DEPARTMENTAL RESULTS

-Key Races

LO(Loreto) – FUJIMORI +3.60pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

UC(Ucayali) – FUJIMORI +3.64pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

IC(Ica) – FUJIMORI +4.96pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

SM(San Martin) – CASTILLO +12.22pp

JU(Junin) – CASTILLO +16.30pp

LA(Lambayeque) – FUJIMORI +16.36pp

AN(Ancash) – CASTILLO +16.78pp

PI(Piura) – FUJIMORI +20.10pp

PA(Pasco) – CASTILLO +30.70pp

CJ(Cajamarca) – CASTILLO +42.54pp

-Other Races

LL(La Libertad) – FUJIMORI +20.00pp

LI(Lima) – FUJIMORI +29.26pp

AR(Arequipa) – CASTILLO +29.68pp

CL(Callao) – FUJIMORI +29.84pp

TU(Tumbes) – FUJIMORI +31.76pp

EX(Extranjero) – FUJIMORI +32.38pp

AM(Amazonas) – CASTILLO +33.42pp

HC(Huanuco) – CASTILLO +35.40pp

MD(Madre de Dios) – CASTILLO +42.12pp

TA(Tacna) – CASTILLO +45.14pp

MO(Moquegua) – CASTILLO +46.26pp

AP(Apurimac) – CASTILLO +62.94pp

AY(Ayacucho) – CASTILLO +65.28pp

CU(Cusco) – CASTILLO +66.40pp

HV(Huancavelica) – CASTILLO +69.62pp

PU(Puno) – CASTILLO +78.52pp

_PROJECTION ANALYSIS

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO – FULL RESULTS

_Globe Elections UN STREAM – LIVE RESULTS(Part 8)

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

America

[Peru Presidential Election]2021 2nd Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL PROJECTION

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in Peru, we are projecting that it is extremely close between Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Castillo, therefore we could not project the winner this election yet.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Keiko Fujimori(FP / Far-Right) : 50.16%

(+0.28pp From Last Election)

Pedro Castillo(PPNPL / Left-wing) : 49.84%

(-0.28pp From Last Election)

_DEPARTMENTAL PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

CJ(Cajamarca) – FUJIMORI +0.90pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

SM(San Martin) – CASTILLO +1.04pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

PA(Pasco) – FUJIMORI +1.16pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

IC(Ica) – FUJIMORI +3.02pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

UC(Ucayali) – CASTILLO +5.30pp

JU(Junin) – CASTILLO +6.12pp

LA(Lambayeque) – FUJIMORI +7.22pp

PI(Piura) – FUJIMORI +7.88pp

LO(Loreto) – CASTILLO +9.90pp

-Other Races

TU(Tumbes) – FUJIMORI +11.64pp

AN(Ancash) – CASTILLO +13.52pp

AM(Amazonas) – CASTILLO +14.10pp

LL(La Libertad) – FUJIMORI +16.46pp

CL(Callao) – FUJIMORI +17.08pp

LI(Lima) – FUJIMORI +18.20pp

HC(Huanuco) – CASTILLO +23.92pp

AR(Arequipa) – CASTILLO +28.90pp

MD(Madre de Dios) – CASTILLO +29.62pp

MO(Moquegua) – CASTILLO +30.62pp

EX(Extranjero) – FUJIMORI +43.40pp

AP(Apurimac) – CASTILLO +34.00pp

AY(Ayacucho) – CASTILLO +41.58pp

HV(Huancavelica) – CASTILLO +41.84pp

TA(Tacna) – CASTILLO +44.38pp

CU(Cusco) – CASTILLO +51.88pp

PU(Puno) – CASTILLO +53.54pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard


R1 BASE PROJECTION

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round R1 BASE Projection in Peru, we are projecting that it is extremely close between Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Castillo, therefore we could not project a particular winner.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Keiko Fujimori(FP / Far-Right) : 50.70%

(+0.82pp From Last Election)

Pedro Castillo(PPNPL / Left-wing) : 49.30%

(-0.82pp From Last Election)

_DEPARTMENTAL PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

IC(Ica) – FUJIMORI +2.32pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

SM(San Martin) – CASTILLO +3.23pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

AN(Ancash) – CASTILLO +4.05pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

UC(Ucayali) – FUJIMORI +7.21pp

-Other Races

LO(Loreto) – FUJIMORI +13.73pp

JU(Junin)CASTILLO +14.49pp

AR(Arequipa)CASTILLO +19.22pp

HC(Huanuco)CASTILLO +21.54pp

EX(Extranjero) – FUJIMORI +23.19pp

PI(Piura) – FUJIMORI +23.36pp

LI(Lima) – FUJIMORI +23.55pp

CL(Callao) – FUJIMORI +25.36pp

LA(Lambayeque) – FUJIMORI +25.97pp

PA(Pasco) – CASTILLO +27.01pp

AM(Amazonas)CASTILLO +28.02pp

MD(Madre de Dios)CASTILLO +31.04pp

CJ(Cajamarca)CASTILLO +32.79pp

TA(Tacna)CASTILLO +35.15pp

LL(La Libertad) – FUJIMORI +35.93pp

TU(Tumbes) – FUJIMORI +39.53pp

MO(Moquegua)CASTILLO +40.16pp

CU(Cusco)CASTILLO +57.33pp

AY(Ayacucho)CASTILLO +60.56pp

AP(Apurimac)CASTILLO +63.46pp

HV(Huancavelica)CASTILLO +68.11pp

PU(Puno)CASTILLO +75.95pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

America

[Peru Presidential Election]2021 1st Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in Peru, we are projecting that it is extremely close between Pedro Castillo, Yonhy Lescano, Keiko Fujimori, Hernando de Soto, Verónika Mendoza and also Rafael López Aliaga is just behind.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Pedro Castillo(PPNPL / Left-wing) : 12.57%

(NEW PARTY)

Yonhy Lescano(AP / Lean-Right) : 12.03%

(+5.06pp From Last Election)

Keiko Fujimori(FP / Far-Right) : 11.94%

(-27.92pp From Last Election)

Hernando de Soto(APPIS / Center-Right) : 11.85%

(NEW PARTY)

Verónika Mendoza(JP / Left-wing) : 10.19%

(-8.55pp From Last Election)

Rafael López Aliaga(RP / Right-wing) : 9.94%

(NEW PARTY)

George Forsyth(VN / Lean-Right) : 7.61%

(NEW PARTY)

Daniel Urresti(PP / Big Tent) : 5.21%

(NEW PARTY)

César Acuña(APP / Right-wing) : 5.20%

(NEW PARTY)

Julio Guzmán(PM / Lean-Left) : 2.81%

(NEW PARTY)

Daniel Salaverry(PDSP / Lean-Right) : 2.29%

(NEW PARTY)

Ollanta Humala(PNP / Center-Left) : 2.12%

(NEW PARTY)

Alberto Beingolea(PPC / Center-Right) : 1.13%

(-4.70pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTR / Mixed) : 5.11%

(-23.49pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EQZ6nKVFXCzXmSr3SXmpsW6OBu43MFV-WaKdXPlq8Cs/

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

America

[Ecuador Presidential Election]2021 2nd Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in Ecuador, we are projecting that it is too close to call between Andrés Arauz and Guillermo Lasso. That’s outside the range of extremely close after the projected margin is over 2.50pp, but there is still a pretty large possibility that Lasso pulls ahead.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection(WithOut Invalid+Blank)

Andrés Arauz(UNES / Left-wing) : 51.64%

(+0.48pp From Last Election, +18.92pp From R1)

Guillermo Lasso(CREO / Center-Right) : 48.36%

(-0.48pp From Last Election, +28.62pp From R1)

-Vote Share Projection(WithIn Invalid+Blank)

Andrés Arauz(UNES / Left-wing) : 40.30%

Guillermo Lasso(CREO / Center-Right) : 37.74%

Invalid+Blank Votes(Invalid+Blank / Mixed) : 21.96%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iIqwEfWxMDb9mx9FarcE-xa9SC6Dn9GNARnS9Q3URBo/

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

America

[Ecuador Presidential Election]2021 1st Round FINAL Results

_HEADLINE

Globe Elections UN has projected that there will be a 2nd round between Andrés Arauz and Guillermo Lasso as our Final Projection suggested. However, there was a much more close race for the second place between Guillermo Lasso & Yaku Pérez mostly due to rise of Xavier Hervas and caused a long legal battle.

_VOTE SHARE RESULTS

-Vote Share Results(R1)

Andrés Arauz(UNES / Left-wing) : 32.72%

(+29.54pp From Last Election)

Guillermo Lasso(CREO / Center-Right) : 19.74%

(-24.67pp From Last Election)

Yaku Pérez(MUPP / Left-wing) : 19.39%

(NEW PARTY)

Xavier Hervas(ID / Center-Left) : 15.68%

(+8.97pp From Last Election)

Pedro Freile(AMIGO / Center) : 2.08%

(NEW PARTY)

Isidro Romero(PA / Center-Left) : 1.86%

(NEW PARTY)

Lucio Gutiérrez(PSP / Lean-Left) : 1.78%

(+1.01pp From Last Election)

Gerson Almeida(EU / Center-Right) : 1.73%

(NEW PARTY)

Ximena Peña(PAIS / Center-Left) : 1.55%

(-37.81pp From Last Election)

Guillermo Celi(SUMA / Center) : 0.91%

(NEW PARTY)

Juan Fernando Velasco(MC25 / Center-Left) : 0.82%

(NEW PARTY)

César Montúfar(MC25 / Center) : 0.62%

(NEW PARTY)

Gustavo Larrea(DS / Center-Left) : 0.40%

(NEW PARTY)

Carlos Sagnay(FE / Center-Left Big Tent) : 0.29%

(-4.53pp From Last Election)

Giovanny Andrade(UE / Center) : 0.22%

(-0.57pp From Last Election)

Paúl Carrasco(JP / Center) : 0.21%

(NEW PARTY)

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Source Of Data

https://resultados2021.cne.gob.ec/

America

[Ecuador Presidential Election]2021 1st Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in Ecuador, we are projecting that no candidates will reach 40%+ vote share needed to win and therefore there will be a runoff held on April 11th. Also, a close race is expected between Andrés Arauz and Guillermo Lasso.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection(R1)

Andrés Arauz(UNES / Left-wing) : 37.10%

(+33.92pp From Last Election)

Guillermo Lasso(CREO / Center-Right) : 31.68%

(-12.73pp From Last Election)

Yaku Pérez(MUPP / Left-wing) : 20.44%

(NEW PARTY)

Xavier Hervas(ID / Center-Left) : 2.70%

(-4.01pp From Last Election)

Isidro Romero(PA / Center-Left) : 1.71%

(NEW PARTY)

Lucio Gutiérrez(PSP / Lean-Left) : 1.26%

(+0.49pp From Last Election)

Juan Fernando Velasco(MC25 / Center-Left) : 0.84%

(NEW PARTY)

César Montúfar(MC25 / Center) : 0.83%

(NEW PARTY)

Guillermo Celi(SUMA / Center) : 0.81%

(NEW PARTY)

Pedro Freile(AMIGO / Center) : 0.81%

(NEW PARTY)

Ximena Peña(PAIS / Center-Left) : 0.50%

(-38.86pp From Last Election)

Gerson Almeida(EU / Center-Right) : 0.49%

(NEW PARTY)

Gustavo Larrea(DS / Center-Left) : 0.30%

(NEW PARTY)

Carlos Sagnay(FE / Center-Left Big Tent) : 0.22%

(-4.60pp From Last Election)

Giovanny Andrade(UE / Center) : 0.18%

(-0.57pp From Last Election)

Paúl Carrasco(JP / Center) : 0.13%

(NEW PARTY)

-Vote Share Projection(R2)

Guillermo Lasso(CREO / Center-Right) : 51.32%

(+2.48pp From Last Election, +19.64pp From R1)

Andrés Arauz(UNES / Left-wing) : 48.68%

(-2.48pp From Last Election, +11.58pp From R1)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sJ_C8iP7eSDxoieKELSXaq1h9hossi5xXmMRrdD6P3I/

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

America

[GHESC Polling Average]Canada General(Legislative) Election Polling Average & Seat Projections for Entire June

According to our GEHSC’s polling average data on Canada, it had Center-Right Conservatives and Center-Left Liberals on a pretty-close race with-in the margain of error, which is around 土50 seats on the seat level and 土 5%p on the vote share level(Margain of Error is based on the one of 338Canada.com).

Conservatives are on 35.31% with 159 seats, up almost until the election results of 2011, under Stephen Harper. Oppositely, the Ruling Liberals are at 29.98% with 137 seats. Even though PM Justin Trudeau’s popularity got down, that would still give the best results since 2004 – but that’s certainly excluding 2015 figures.

Moving on to New Democrats, they’re actually projected to get 14.43% and 22 seats -which is only half of the seats of what they got in the last general election. This should be because of two-party-politics’ comback – as I previously mentioned – and the surge of the Greens.

Green Party of Canada is on 11.32% with 7 seats, which will be their best results ever in party history and expanding the vote share, seat number by four & seven times compared to 2015. When this numbers continues to the most-important real election, it would probably make Canada with as the nation with one of the strongest-Green politics worldwide.

In addition, the Bloc Québécois or Quebec Party will be on 13 seats, adding their seats still with 0.01%p less support in votes. Right-wing People’s Party – which split from the Conservatives in mid-2018 and is led by Maxime Bernier – is at 2.91% but no seats. But it is very possible that their leader Mr. Bernier holding his seat after they are projected to get 0.4 seats.

This polling average is based on 22,333 samples or 13 opinion polls conducted between June 1st and June 30th. For more details, look at the following spreadsheet :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J_l8Hl9ibqIO7LvLOJLGYLyWQEKJWsqnRH_5cuLm4Z0