America

[Colombia Presidential Election]2022 2nd Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’22 R2 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in Colombia, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Rodolfo Hernandez & Gustavo Petro for the next presidency.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Rodolfo Hernández(LIGA / Big Tent) : 50.15%

(-6.24pp From Last Election)

Gustavo Petro(PH / Left-wing) : 49.85%

(+6.24pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 Colombia Presidential Election R2 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 12 polling data(total 26,014 sample size) fieldwork done between 6/4 and 6/11. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

America

[Colombia Presidential Election]2022 1st Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’22 R1 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in Colombia, we are projecting that there will be a runoff between Gustavo Petro & Fico Gutiérrez somewhat likely after being ahead of Rodolfo Hernández & Sergio Fajardo.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Gustavo Petro(PH / Left-wing) : 44.84%

(+19.30pp From Last Election)

Fico Gutiérrez(EPC / Center-Right) : 26.46%

(-22.90pp From Last Election)

Rodolfo Hernández(LIGA / Big Tent) : 21.13%

(NEW PARTY)

Sergio Fajardo(CCE / Center-Left) : 6.43%

(-17.73pp From Last Election)

John Rodríguez(CJL / Right-wing) : 0.77%

(+0.15pp From Last Election)

Enrique Gómez(MSN / Far-Right) : 0.37%

(NEW PARTY)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 Colombia Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 8 polling data(total 21,142 sample size) fieldwork done between 5/13 and 5/20. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

America

[Chile Presidential Election]2021 2nd Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 R2 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in Chile, we are projecting that it is Too Close To Call between José Kast and Gabriel Boric.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Gabriel Boric(AD / Left-wing) : 51.47%

(+6.04pp From Last Election)

José Kast(FSC / Far-Right) : 48.53%

(-6.04pp From Last Election)

_REGIONAL PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

OH(O’Higgins) – KAST +0.11pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

AT(Atacama) – BORIC +0.96pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

ML(Maule) – KAST +2.62pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

BI(Biobío) – KAST +4.22pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

AN(Antofagasta) – BORIC +4.44pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

LL(Los Lagos) – BORIC +4.90pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

LR(Los Ríos) – BORIC +5.24pp

TA(Tarapacá) – KAST +5.66pp

SA(Santiago) – BORIC +5.80pp

VA(Valparaíso) – BORIC +7.66pp

ÑU(Ñuble) – KAST +7.80pp

-Other Races

CO(Coquimbo) – BORIC +11.10pp

AP(Arica & Parinacota) – BORIC +11.22pp

AR(Araucanía) – KAST +13.14pp

AY(Aysén) – BORIC +15.50pp

MG(Magallanes) – BORIC +24.32pp

EX(Extranjero) – BORIC +32.53pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard


R1 BASE ’21 R2 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round R1 BASE Projection in Chile, we are projecting that it is a Key Race between José Kast and Gabriel Boric but Boric leads over Kast slightly.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Gabriel Boric(AD / Left-wing) : 53.33%

(+7.90pp From Last Election)

José Kast(FSC / Far-Right) : 46.67%

(-7.90pp From Last Election)

_REGIONAL PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

LR(Los Ríos) – BORIC +0.22pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

LL(Los Lagos) – KAST +1.92pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

AP(Arica & Parinacota) – KAST +3.52pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

ML(Maule) – KAST +4.46pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

BI(Biobío) – KAST +4.96pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

TA(Tarapacá) – KAST +5.04pp

OH(O’Higgins) – BORIC +8.28pp

AY(Aysén) – BORIC +9.76pp

-Other Races

VA(Valparaíso) – BORIC +10.84pp

SA(Santiago) – BORIC +12.58pp

ÑU(Ñuble) – KAST +13.36pp

AN(Antofagasta) – BORIC +14.22pp

MG(Magallanes) – BORIC +16.98pp

AR(Araucanía) – KAST +19.32pp

CO(Coquimbo) – BORIC +20.04pp

EX(Extranjero) – BORIC +33.14pp

AT(Atacama) – BORIC +35.24pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard


America

[Chile Presidential Election]2021 1st Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 R1 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in Chile, we are projecting that it is Too Close To Call between José Kast and Gabriel Boric, and they will face once more in the 2nd Round.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

José Kast(FSC / Far-Right) : 31.81%

(+23.88pp From Last Election)

Gabriel Boric(AD / Left-wing) : 27.22%

(+6.95pp From Last Election)

Yasna Provoste(NPS / Lean-Left) : 12.16%

(-16.42pp From Last Election)

Sebastián Sichel(CP+ / Center-Right) : 10.86%

(-25.78pp From Last Election)

Franco Parisi(PDG / Big Tent) : 10.52%

(NEW PARTY)

Marco Enríquez-Ominami(PRO / Center-Left) : 5.13%

(-0.94pp From Last Election)

Eduardo Artés(UPA / Far-Left) : 2.30%

(+1.79pp From Last Election)

_REGIONAL PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

OH(O’Higgins) – BORIC +1.89pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

AN(Antofagasta) – KAST +2.86pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

SA(Santiago) – BORIC +3.68pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

VA(Valparaíso) – BORIC +4.90pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

MG(Magallanes) – KAST +7.55pp

TA(Tarapacá) – KAST +7.67pp

CO(Coquimbo) – BORIC +8.00pp

-Other Races

AT(Atacama) – BORIC +10.34pp

ML(Maule) – KAST +11.41pp

EX(Extranjero) – BORIC +11.81pp

AP(Arica & Parinacota) – KAST +12.30pp

LL(Los Lagos) – KAST +17.94pp

ÑU(Ñuble) – KAST +19.36pp

LR(Los Ríos) – KAST +19.45pp

BI(Biobío) – KAST +22.28pp

AR(Araucanía) – KAST +30.86pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard


Canada

[Canada General Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Canada, we are projecting that it is extremely close between the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau and the Conservatives led by Erin O’ Toole.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Liberal Party(LPC / Lean-Left) : 146 Seats

(+19 From Sep ’21, -11 From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CPC / Center-Right) : 123 Seats

(-23 From Sep ’21, +2 From Last Election)

New Democratic Party(NDP / Center-Left) : 35 Seats

(-5 From Sep ’21, +11 From Last Election)

Quebecers’ Bloc(BQ / Center-Left) : 32 Seats

(+8 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GPC / Left-wing) : 2 Seats

(+1 From Sep ’21, -1 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PPC / Right-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, -1 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Liberal Party(LPC / Lean-Left) : 31.53%

(+0.68pp From Sep ’21, -1.59pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CPC / Center-Right) : 31.06%

(-2.62pp From Sep ’21, -3.28pp From Last Election)

New Democratic Party(NDP / Center-Left) : 19.68%

(-1.15pp From Sep ’21, +3.70pp From Last Election)

Quebecers’ Bloc(BQ / Center-Left) : 6.78%

(+0.38pp From Sep ’21, -0.85pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PPC / Right-wing) : 6.35%

(+2.40pp From Sep ’21, +4.73pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GPC / Left-wing) : 3.45%

(+0.20pp From Sep’ 21, -3.10pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.15%

(+0.11pp From Sep ’21, +0.39pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Canada

[Canada General Election]2021 September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

SEPTEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in Canada, we are projecting that it is too close to call between the Conservatives led by Erin O’ Toole and the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CPC / Center-Right) : 146 Seats

(+25 From Last Election)

Liberal Party(LPC / Lean-Left) : 127 Seats

(-30 From Last Election)

New Democratic Party(NDP / Center-Left) : 40 Seats

(+16 From Last Election)

Quebecers’ Bloc(BQ / Center-Left) : 24 Seats

(-8 From Last Election)

Green Party(GPC / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(-2 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PPC / Right-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CPC / Center-Right) : 33.68%

(-0.66pp From Last Election)

Liberal Party(LPC / Lean-Left) : 30.85%

(-2.27pp From Last Election)

New Democratic Party(NDP / Center-Left) : 20.83%

(+4.85pp From Last Election)

Quebecers’ Bloc(BQ / Center-Left) : 6.40%

(-1.23pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PPC / Right-wing) : 3.95%

(+2.33pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GPC / Left-wing) : 3.25%

(-3.30pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.04%

(+0.28pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

America

[Peru Presidential Election]2021 2nd Round FINAL Results

FINAL ’21 R2 RESULTS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round LIVE Projection in Peru, we are calling that Pedro Castillo is the apparent winner after a extremely close fight with Keiko Fujimori.

(***APPARENT WINNER IS NOT PROJECTED WINNER, IT MEANS WE CAN CALL THAT CANDIDATE WILL WIN, BUT COULD FLIP AFTER OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS RECOUNT OR ANNULMENT OF VOTES)

_NATIONAL RESULTS

-Vote Share Results

Pedro Castillo(PPNPL / Left-wing) : 50.13%

(+0.01pp From Last Election)

Keiko Fujimori(FP / Far-Right) : 49.87%

(-0.01pp From Last Election)

_DEPARTMENTAL RESULTS

-Key Races

LO(Loreto) – FUJIMORI +3.60pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

UC(Ucayali) – FUJIMORI +3.64pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

IC(Ica) – FUJIMORI +4.96pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

SM(San Martin) – CASTILLO +12.24pp

JU(Junin) – CASTILLO +16.30pp

LA(Lambayeque) – FUJIMORI +16.36pp

AN(Ancash) – CASTILLO +16.78pp

PI(Piura) – FUJIMORI +20.10pp

PA(Pasco) – CASTILLO +30.70pp

CJ(Cajamarca) – CASTILLO +42.56pp

-Other Races

LL(La Libertad) – FUJIMORI +20.00pp

LI(Lima) – FUJIMORI +29.28pp

AR(Arequipa) – CASTILLO +29.68pp

TU(Tumbes) – FUJIMORI +31.76pp

EX(Extranjero) – FUJIMORI +32.38pp

AM(Amazonas) – CASTILLO +33.42pp

CL(Callao) – FUJIMORI +34.84pp

HC(Huanuco) – CASTILLO +35.42pp

MD(Madre de Dios) – CASTILLO +42.12pp

TA(Tacna) – CASTILLO +45.14pp

MO(Moquegua) – CASTILLO +46.26pp

AP(Apurimac) – CASTILLO +62.94pp

AY(Ayacucho) – CASTILLO +65.28pp

CU(Cusco) – CASTILLO +66.40pp

HV(Huancavelica) – CASTILLO +69.62pp

PU(Puno) – CASTILLO +78.52pp

_PROJECTION ANALYSIS

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO – FINAL RESULTS

_Globe Elections UN STREAM – LIVE RESULTS(Part 8)

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

America

[Peru Presidential Election]2021 2nd Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 R2 PROJECTION

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in Peru, we are projecting that it is extremely close between Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Castillo, therefore we could not project the winner this election yet.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Keiko Fujimori(FP / Far-Right) : 50.16%

(+0.28pp From Last Election)

Pedro Castillo(PPNPL / Left-wing) : 49.84%

(-0.28pp From Last Election)

_DEPARTMENTAL PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

CJ(Cajamarca) – FUJIMORI +0.90pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

SM(San Martin) – CASTILLO +1.04pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

PA(Pasco) – FUJIMORI +1.16pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

IC(Ica) – FUJIMORI +3.02pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

UC(Ucayali) – CASTILLO +5.30pp

JU(Junin) – CASTILLO +6.12pp

LA(Lambayeque) – FUJIMORI +7.22pp

PI(Piura) – FUJIMORI +7.88pp

LO(Loreto) – CASTILLO +9.90pp

-Other Races

TU(Tumbes) – FUJIMORI +11.64pp

AN(Ancash) – CASTILLO +13.52pp

AM(Amazonas) – CASTILLO +14.10pp

LL(La Libertad) – FUJIMORI +16.46pp

CL(Callao) – FUJIMORI +17.08pp

LI(Lima) – FUJIMORI +18.20pp

HC(Huanuco) – CASTILLO +23.92pp

AR(Arequipa) – CASTILLO +28.90pp

MD(Madre de Dios) – CASTILLO +29.62pp

MO(Moquegua) – CASTILLO +30.62pp

EX(Extranjero) – FUJIMORI +43.40pp

AP(Apurimac) – CASTILLO +34.00pp

AY(Ayacucho) – CASTILLO +41.58pp

HV(Huancavelica) – CASTILLO +41.84pp

TA(Tacna) – CASTILLO +44.38pp

CU(Cusco) – CASTILLO +51.88pp

PU(Puno) – CASTILLO +53.54pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard


R1 BASE PROJECTION

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round R1 BASE Projection in Peru, we are projecting that it is extremely close between Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Castillo, therefore we could not project a particular winner.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Keiko Fujimori(FP / Far-Right) : 50.70%

(+0.82pp From Last Election)

Pedro Castillo(PPNPL / Left-wing) : 49.30%

(-0.82pp From Last Election)

_DEPARTMENTAL PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

IC(Ica) – FUJIMORI +2.32pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

SM(San Martin) – CASTILLO +3.23pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

AN(Ancash) – CASTILLO +4.05pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

UC(Ucayali) – FUJIMORI +7.21pp

-Other Races

LO(Loreto) – FUJIMORI +13.73pp

JU(Junin)CASTILLO +14.49pp

AR(Arequipa)CASTILLO +19.22pp

HC(Huanuco)CASTILLO +21.54pp

EX(Extranjero) – FUJIMORI +23.19pp

PI(Piura) – FUJIMORI +23.36pp

LI(Lima) – FUJIMORI +23.55pp

CL(Callao) – FUJIMORI +25.36pp

LA(Lambayeque) – FUJIMORI +25.97pp

PA(Pasco) – CASTILLO +27.01pp

AM(Amazonas)CASTILLO +28.02pp

MD(Madre de Dios)CASTILLO +31.04pp

CJ(Cajamarca)CASTILLO +32.79pp

TA(Tacna)CASTILLO +35.15pp

LL(La Libertad) – FUJIMORI +35.93pp

TU(Tumbes) – FUJIMORI +39.53pp

MO(Moquegua)CASTILLO +40.16pp

CU(Cusco)CASTILLO +57.33pp

AY(Ayacucho)CASTILLO +60.56pp

AP(Apurimac)CASTILLO +63.46pp

HV(Huancavelica)CASTILLO +68.11pp

PU(Puno)CASTILLO +75.95pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

America

[Peru Presidential Election]2021 1st Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

FINAL ’21 R1 PROJECTION

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in Peru, we are projecting that it is extremely close between Pedro Castillo, Yonhy Lescano, Keiko Fujimori, Hernando de Soto, Verónika Mendoza and also Rafael López Aliaga is just behind.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Pedro Castillo(PPNPL / Left-wing) : 12.57%

(NEW PARTY)

Yonhy Lescano(AP / Lean-Right) : 12.03%

(+5.06pp From Last Election)

Keiko Fujimori(FP / Far-Right) : 11.94%

(-27.92pp From Last Election)

Hernando de Soto(APPIS / Center-Right) : 11.85%

(NEW PARTY)

Verónika Mendoza(JP / Left-wing) : 10.19%

(-8.55pp From Last Election)

Rafael López Aliaga(RP / Right-wing) : 9.94%

(NEW PARTY)

George Forsyth(VN / Lean-Right) : 7.61%

(NEW PARTY)

Daniel Urresti(PP / Big Tent) : 5.21%

(NEW PARTY)

César Acuña(APP / Right-wing) : 5.20%

(NEW PARTY)

Julio Guzmán(PM / Lean-Left) : 2.81%

(NEW PARTY)

Daniel Salaverry(PDSP / Lean-Right) : 2.29%

(NEW PARTY)

Ollanta Humala(PNP / Center-Left) : 2.12%

(NEW PARTY)

Alberto Beingolea(PPC / Center-Right) : 1.13%

(-4.70pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTR / Mixed) : 5.11%

(-23.49pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EQZ6nKVFXCzXmSr3SXmpsW6OBu43MFV-WaKdXPlq8Cs/

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

America

[Ecuador Presidential Election]2021 2nd Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in Ecuador, we are projecting that it is too close to call between Andrés Arauz and Guillermo Lasso. That’s outside the range of extremely close after the projected margin is over 2.50pp, but there is still a pretty large possibility that Lasso pulls ahead.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection(WithOut Invalid+Blank)

Andrés Arauz(UNES / Left-wing) : 51.64%

(+0.48pp From Last Election, +18.92pp From R1)

Guillermo Lasso(CREO / Center-Right) : 48.36%

(-0.48pp From Last Election, +28.62pp From R1)

-Vote Share Projection(WithIn Invalid+Blank)

Andrés Arauz(UNES / Left-wing) : 40.30%

Guillermo Lasso(CREO / Center-Right) : 37.74%

Invalid+Blank Votes(Invalid+Blank / Mixed) : 21.96%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iIqwEfWxMDb9mx9FarcE-xa9SC6Dn9GNARnS9Q3URBo/

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/