EXCEL ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s EXCEL Projection in Estonia, Reform Party retain its position as largest party, and Kaja Kallas would likely remain Prime Minister after support from current governing partners of Social Democrats & Fatherland, plus Estonia 200.

_SEAT PROJECTION

Reform Party(RFM / Lean-Right) : 31 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Center Party(KESK / Lean-Left) : 18 Seats

(-8 From Last Election)

Conservative People’s Party(EKRE / Far-Right) : 18 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Estonia 200(E200 / Center) : 15 Seats

(+15 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SDE / Center-Left) : 11 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Fatherland Party(IE / Center-Right) : 8 Seats

(-4 From Last Election)

The Right(PP / Right-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Green Party(ROH / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(MUUD / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

Reform Party(RFM / Lean-Right) : 28.77%

(-0.17pp From Last Election)

Center Party(KESK / Lean-Left) : 16.83%

(-6.27pp From Last Election)

Conservative People’s Party(EKRE / Far-Right) : 16.83%

(-0.93pp From Last Election)

Estonia 200(E200 / Center) : 13.83%

(+9.47pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SDE / Center-Left) : 9.81%

(-0.03pp From Last Election)

Fatherland Party(IE / Center-Right) : 7.88%

(-3.57pp From Last Election)

The Right(PP / Right-wing) : 2.28%

(NEW PARTY)

Green Party(ROH / Center-Left) : 1.92%

(+0.10pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(MUUD / Mixed) : 1.86%

(-0.51pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

2023-estonia-general-election-excel-projection Download

2019-estonia-general-election-excel-projection Download

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K6GM652hNfKNmbqfAZuVapjSpatIYyaZ1dR8JkiIHlE/

SPREADSHEET – Estonia GE2023 EXCEL Projection

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Estonia General Election EXCEL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 8 polling data(18,394 sample size) fieldwork done between 2/15 and 3/2.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.