CA FINAL ’24 PROJECTION

_FINAL PROJECTION – HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Catalonia, we are projecting that Socialists are narrowly leading Together.

_FINAL PROJECTION – SEAT

Socialist Party(PSC / Center-Left) : 40 Seats

(+7 From Last Election)

Together+Carles Puigdemont For Catalonia(JUNTS+ / Big Tent) : 33 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Republican Left(ERC / Center-Left Big Tent) : 26 Seats

(-7 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Center-Right) : 12 Seats

(+9 From Last Election)

Voice(VOX / Far-Right) : 10 Seats

(-1 From Last Election)

Commons Unite(COMU+SMR / Left-wing Big Tent) : 6 Seats

(-2 From Last Election)

Popular Unity Candidacy–Let’s Defend the Land(CUP / Left-wing) : 5 Seats

(-4 From Last Election)

Catalan Alliance(AC / Far-Right) : 2 Seats

(NEW ENTRY)

Citizens(CS / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(-6 From Last Election)

At Once(ALH / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(=0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTR / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

_FINAL PROJECTION – VOTE

***Turnout 64.57%

Socialist Party(PSC / Center-Left) : 28.67%

(+5.45pp From Last Election)

Together+Carles Puigdemont For Catalonia(JUNTS+ / Big Tent) : 20.82%

(+0.58pp From Last Election)

Republican Left(ERC / Center-Left Big Tent) : 17.66%

(-3.82pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Center-Right) : 9.10%

(+5.22pp From Last Election)

Voice(VOX / Far-Right) : 7.43%

(-0.31pp From Last Election)

Commons Unite(COMU+SMR / Left-wing Big Tent) : 5.55%

(-1.38pp From Last Election)

Popular Unity Candidacy–Let’s Defend the Land(CUP / Left-wing) : 4.54%

(-2.20pp From Last Election)

Catalan Alliance(AC / Far-Right) : 3.20%

(NEW ENTRY)

Citizens(CS / Lean-Right) : 1.34%

(-4.29pp From Last Election)

At Once(ALH / Big Tent) : 0.99%

(-1.75pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTR / Mixed) : 0.70%

(-0.71pp From Last Election)

_CHATGPT PROJECTION

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2024 Spain Catalonia Regional Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 25 polling data(39,175 unweighted / 27,780 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/29 and 5/6. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, Italy

[Panama Presidential Election]2024 FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

5th May 20246th May 2024 mglee05

FINAL ’24 PROJECTION

_FINAL PROJECTION – HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Panama, we are projecting that JR Mulino will very likely be the next president, possibly with the lowest percentage in history.

_FINAL PROJECTION – PRESIDENTIAL

JR Mulino(ASP / Center-Right) : 33.42%

(+30.56pp From Last Election)

Ricardo Lombana(MOCA / Big Tent) : 18.20%

(-0.58pp From Last Election)

Rómulo Roux(LBV / Center-Right) : 17.51%

(-11.21pp From Last Election)

Martín Torrijos(PP / Center) : 15.13%

(+13.15pp From Last Election)

Gabriel Carrizo(VTP / Center-Left) : 8.30%

(-25.05pp From Last Election)

Zulay Rodríguez(IND PRD / Lean-Left Big Tent) : 4.31%

(-0.46pp From Last Election)

Melitón Arrocha(PAIS / Right-wing) : 1.95%

(-6.91pp From Last Election)

Maribel Gordón(FAD / Left-wing Big Tent) : 1.18%

(+0.49pp From Last Election)

_FINAL PROJECTION – GENERAL

Realizing Goals(RM / Center-Right) : 31.03%

(+26.28pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Center) : 15.13%

(+10.08pp From Last Election)

Democratic Change(CD / Center-Right) : 12.90%

(-9.55pp From Last Election)

Democratic Revolutionary Party(PRD / Lean-Left) : 11.56%

(-18.91pp From Last Election)

Another Way Movement(MOCA / Big Tent) : 10.41%

(+5.08pp From Last Election)

Panamanian Party(PAN / Center-Right) : 6.95%

(-10.35pp From Last Election)

Independent Social Alternative Party(PAIS / Right-wing) : 3.36%

(NEW ENTRY)

Alliance Party(ALI / Center-Right) : 8.30%

(-25.05pp From Last Election)

Nationalist Republican Liberal Movement(MOLIRENA / Lean-Right) : 1.23%

(-3.88pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTR / Mixed) : 7.35%

(-1.71pp From Last Election)

_CHATGPT PROJECTION – PRESIDENTIAL

JR Mulino(ASP / Center-Right) : 30.62%

(+27.76pp From Last Election)

Ricardo Lombana(MOCA / Big Tent) : 18.83%

(+0.05pp From Last Election)

Rómulo Roux(LBV / Center-Right) : 17.55%

(-11.17pp From Last Election)

Martín Torrijos(PP / Center) : 14.55%

(+12.57pp From Last Election)

Gabriel Carrizo(VTP / Center-Left) : 9.29%

(-24.06pp From Last Election)

Zulay Rodríguez(IND PRD / Lean-Left Big Tent) : 5.53%

(+0.76pp From Last Election)

Melitón Arrocha(PAIS / Right-wing) : 2.13%

(-6.73pp From Last Election)

Maribel Gordón(FAD / Left-wing Big Tent) : 1.50%

(+0.81pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2024 Panama Presidential Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 8 polling data(9,214 unweighted / 8,002 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/24 and 5/1. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, Italy

[Spain Regional Election]2024 Basque FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

21st Apr 202422nd Apr 2024 mglee05

BA FINAL ’24 PROJECTION

_FINAL PROJECTION – HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Spain Basque, we are projecting that it is Extremely Call between Gather & Nationals, Nationals & Gather.

_FINAL PROJECTION – SEAT

Basque Country Gather(EHB / Left-wing) : 29 Seats

(+8 From Last Election)

Basque National Party(EAJ / Center) : 28 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Socialist Party(PSE / Center-Left) : 10 Seats

(=0 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Center-Right) : 7 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Unite(SMR / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(-2 From Last Election)

Voice(VOX / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Last Election)

Together(ELK / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(-3 From Last Election)

Animalist Party With The Environment(PACMA / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTR / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

_FINAL PROJECTION – VOTE

***Turnout 63.21%

Basque National Party(EAJ / Center) : 34.96%

(-4.11pp From Last Election)

Basque Country Gather(EHB / Left-wing) : 34.81%

(+6.95pp From Last Election)

Socialist Party(PSE / Center-Left) : 13.32%

(-0.33pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Center-Right) : 8.37%

(+1.60pp From Last Election)

Unite(SMR / Left-wing) : 3.13%

(-2.20pp From Last Election)

Together(ELK / Left-wing) : 2.49%

(-1.54pp From Last Election)

Voice(VOX / Far-Right) : 1.90%

(-0.06pp From Last Election)

Animalist Party With The Environment(PACMA / Center-Left) : 0.42%

(-0.13pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTR / Mixed) : 0.60%

(-0.18pp From Last Election)

_CHATGPT PROJECTION – VOTE

***Turnout 63.54%

Basque National Party(EAJ / Center) : 34.82%

(-4.25pp From Last Election)

Basque Country Gather(EHB / Left-wing) : 34.76%

(+6.90pp From Last Election)

Socialist Party(PSE / Center-Left) : 13.42%

(-0.23pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Center-Right) : 8.20%

(+1.43pp From Last Election)

Unite(SMR / Left-wing) : 3.20%

(-2.13pp From Last Election)

Together(ELK / Left-wing) : 2.58%

(-1.45pp From Last Election)

Voice(VOX / Far-Right) : 2.00%

(+0.04pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTR / Mixed) : 1.02%

(-0.31pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2024 Spain Basque Regional Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 16 polling data(21,606 unweighted / 13,161 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/8 and 4/15. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, Italy

[Italy Regional Election]2024 Basilicata FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

20th Apr 202422nd Apr 2024 mglee05

BA FINAL ’24 PROJECTION

_FINAL PROJECTION – HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Italy Basilicata, we are projecting that it is Too Close To Call between Vito Bardi & Piero Marrese, Piero Marrese & Vito Bardi.

_FINAL PROJECTION – CANDIDATE

Vito Bardi(CDX / Center-Right) : 52.03%

(+9.83pp From Last Election)

Piero Marrese(CSX / Center-Left) : 46.22%

(-8.28pp From Last Election)

Eustachio Follia(VOLT / Lean-Left) : 1.75%

(-1.55pp From Last Election)

_FINAL PROJECTION – PARTY

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 19.32%

(+13.41pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 16.02%

(+3.91pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 13.32%

(-6.95pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 13.08%

(+3.94pp From Last Election)

Common House Basilicata(BCC/ Center-Left) : 6.98%

(-1.65pp From Last Election)

League(LSP / Far-Right) : 6.14%

(-13.01pp From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 6.13%

(-3.73pp From Last Election)

Action(AZ / Center) : 6.03%

(NEW ENTRY)

Lucanian Pride(OL / Center) : 3.77%

(-0.20pp From Last Election)

United Basilicata(BU / Lean-Left) : 2.94%

(-0.43pp From Last Election)

True Basilicata(LVB / Center-Right) : 2.78%

(-1.40pp From Last Election)

Volt Europe(VOLT / Lean-Left) : 1.90%

(-1.40pp From Last Election)

Union Of The Center(UdC / Lean-Right) : 1.59%

(NEW ENTRY)

_FINAL PROJECTION – PROVINCES

Potenza CDX +3.54pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

– CSX Piero Marrese 47.29% VS 50.84% Vito Bardi CDX

Matera CDX +10.51pp <CDX EDGE>

– CSX Piero Marrese 46.22% VS 52.03% Vito Bardi CDX

_CHATGPT PROJECTION – CANDIDATE

Vito Bardi(CDX / Center-Right) : 50.28%

(+8.08pp From Last Election)

Piero Marrese(CSX / Center-Left) : 47.86%

(-6.64pp From Last Election)

Eustachio Follia(VOLT / Lean-Left) : 1.86%

(-1.44pp From Last Election)

_CHATGPT PROJECTION – PROVINCES

Potenza CDX +0.15pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

– CSX Piero Marrese 48.93% VS 49.08% Vito Bardi CDX

Matera CDX +7.12pp <CDX EDGE>

– CSX Piero Marrese 45.65% VS 52.77% Vito Bardi CDX

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2024 Italy Basilicata Regional Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 4 polling data(3,606 sample size) fieldwork done between 3/27 and 4/3. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Slovakia Presidential Election]2024 R2 FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

5th Apr 202420th Apr 2024 mglee05

R2 FINAL ’24 PROJECTION

_FINAL PROJECTION – HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s R2 FINAL Projection in Slovakia, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Ivan Korčok & Peter Pellegrini, Peter Pellegrini & Ivan Korčok.

_FINAL PROJECTION – NATIONAL

Ivan Korčok(PS / Center) : 50.19%

(+3.50pp From R1 FINAL, -8.22pp From Last Election)

Peter Pellegrini(HLAS / Center-Left) : 49.81%

(-3.50pp From R1 FINAL, +8.22pp From Last Election)

_FINAL PROJECTION – REGIONS

Trnavský(Trnava) PS +0.28pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

– HLAS Peter Pellegrini 49.86% VS 50.14% Ivan Korčok PS

Košický(Košice) HLAS +1.78pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

– HLAS Peter Pellegrini 50.89% VS 49.11% Ivan Korčok PS

Žilinský(Žilina) HLAS +3.16pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

– HLAS Peter Pellegrini 51.58% VS 48.42% Ivan Korčok PS

Prešovský(Prešov) HLAS +4.08pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

– HLAS Peter Pellegrini 52.04% VS 47.96% Ivan Korčok PS

Trenčiansky(Trenčín) HLAS +9.10pp <HLAS EDGE>

– HLAS Peter Pellegrini 54.55% VS 45.45% Ivan Korčok PS

Nitriansky(Nitra) HLAS +16.62pp <HLAS AHEAD>

– HLAS Peter Pellegrini 58.31% VS 41.69% Ivan Korčok PS

Banskobystrický(Banská Bystrica) HLAS +16.86pp <HLAS AHEAD>

– HLAS Peter Pellegrini 58.43% VS 41.57% Ivan Korčok PS

Bratislavský(Bratislava) PS +39.16pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

– HLAS Peter Pellegrini 30.42% VS 69.58% Ivan Korčok PS

_CHATGPT PROJECTION

Peter Pellegrini(HLAS / Center-Left) : 50.02%

(+8.43pp From Last Election)

Ivan Korčok(PS / Center) : 49.98%

(-8.43pp From Last Election)

_R1 BASE PROJECTION – NATIONAL

Ivan Korčok(PS / Center) : 51.46%

(-6.95pp From Last Election)

Peter Pellegrini(HLAS / Center-Left) : 48.54%

(+6.95pp From Last Election)

_R1 BASE PROJECTION – REGIONS

_ELECTORAL RATING

Tossup => Trnavský(Trnava) / Žilinský(Žilina) / Prešovský(Prešov) / Košický(Košice)

Lean HLAS => Trenčiansky(Trenčín)

Likely HLAS => Banskobystrický(Banská Bystrica) / Nitriansky(Nitra) /

Safe PS => Bratislavský(Bratislava)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2024 Slovakia Presidential Election R2 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 6 polling data(9,185 unweighted / 8,935 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 3/27 and 4/3. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Slovakia Presidential Election]2024 R1 FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

23rd Mar 20245th Apr 2024 mglee05

R1 FINAL ’24 PROJECTION

_FINAL PROJECTION – HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s R1 FINAL Projection in Slovakia, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Ivan Korčok & Peter Pellegrini, Peter Pellegrini & Ivan Korčok.

_FINAL PROJECTION – NATIONAL

Ivan Korčok(PS / Center) : 36.90%

(-3.82pp From Last Election)

Peter Pellegrini(HLAS / Center-Left) : 36.73%

(+15.33pp From Last Election)

Štefan Harabin(SNS / Right-wing Big Tent) : 13.97%

(-0.67pp From Last Election)

Igor Matovič(OĽANO / Center-Right) : 3.91%

(-1.81pp From Last Election)

Krisztián Forró(ALI / Center-Right Big Tent) : 2.74%

(-0.41pp From Last Election)

Ján Kubiš(SMER / Left-wing Big Tent) : 2.67%

(NEWLY CONTESTED)

Marian Kotleba(ĽSNS / Far-Right) : 1.72%

(-8.67pp From Last Election)

Patrik Dubovský(ZĽ / Lean-Right) : 0.99%

(NEWLY CONTESTED)

Milan Náhlik(IND / Far-Right) : 0.37%

(-0.14pp From Last Election)

_FINAL PROJECTION – CONSTITUENCY

_CHATGPT PROJECTION

Peter Pellegrini(HLAS / Center-Left) : 36.11%

(+14.71pp From Last Election)

Ivan Korčok(PS / Center) : 35.73%

(-4.99pp From Last Election)

Štefan Harabin(SNS / Right-wing Big Tent) : 14.53%

(-0.11pp From Last Election)

Igor Matovič(OĽANO / Center-Right) : 4.16%

(-1.56pp From Last Election)

Ján Kubiš(SMER / Left-wing Big Tent) : 3.05%

(NEWLY CONTESTED)

Krisztián Forró(ALI / Center-Right Big Tent) : 2.74%

(-0.41pp From Last Election)

Marian Kotleba(ĽSNS / Far-Right) : 1.95%

(-8.44pp From Last Election)

Patrik Dubovský(ZĽ / Lean-Right) : 1.35%

(NEWLY CONTESTED)

Milan Náhlik(IND / Far-Right) : 0.38%

(-0.13pp From Last Election)

_ELECTORAL RATING

Tossup => Nitriansky(Nitra) / Košický(Košice)

Lean HLAS => Banskobystrický(Banská Bystrica)

Likely PS => Trnavský(Trnava)

Likely HLAS => Trenčiansky(Trenčín) / Žilinský(Žilina)

Safe PS => Bratislavský(Bratislava)

Safe HLAS => Prešovský(Prešov)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2024 Slovakia Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 6 polling data(7,994 unweighted / 6,777 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 3/12 and 3/19. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Finland Presidential Election]2024 R2 FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

11th Feb 202412th Feb 2024 mglee05

R2 FINAL ’24 PROJECTION

_FINAL PROJECTION – NATIONAL

Alex Stubb(KOK / Center-Right) : 55.12%

(-0.74pp From R1 BASE, -7.47pp From Last Election)

Pekka Haavisto(VIHR / Center-Left) : 44.88%

(+0.74pp From R1 BASE, +7.47pp From Last Election)

_FINAL PROJECTION – CONSTITUENCY

Keski Suomen(Central Finland) KOK +1.48pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 49.26% VS 50.74% Alex Stubb KOK <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Pirkanmaan(Pirkanmaa) KOK +4.92pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 47.54% VS 52.46% Alex Stubb KOK <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Lapin(Lapland) KOK +8.38pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 45.81% VS 54.19% Alex Stubb KOK <KOK EDGE>

Savo Karjalan(Savo Karelia) KOK +8.92pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 45.54% VS 54.46% Alex Stubb KOK <KOK EDGE>

Varsinais Suomen(Varsinais Suomi) KOK +10.14pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 44.93% VS 55.07% Alex Stubb KOK <KOK EDGE>

Helsingin(Helsinki) VIHR +12.82pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 56.41% VS 43.59% Alex Stubb KOK <VIHR AHEAD>

Oulun(Oulu) KOK +14.08pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 42.96% VS 57.04% Alex Stubb KOK <KOK AHEAD>

Ahvenanmaan(Åland) VIHR +14.62pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 57.31% VS 42.69% Alex Stubb KOK <VIHR AHEAD>

Satakunnan(Satakunta) KOK +15.56pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 42.22% VS 57.78% Alex Stubb KOK <KOK AHEAD>

Kaakkois Suomen(South East Finland) KOK +16.08pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 41.96% VS 58.04% Alex Stubb KOK <KOK AHEAD>

Uudenmaan(Uusimaa) KOK +16.28pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 41.86% VS 58.14% Alex Stubb KOK <KOK AHEAD>

Hämeen(Häme) KOK +18.00pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 41.00% VS 58.00% Alex Stubb KOK <KOK AHEAD>

Vaasan(Vaasa) KOK +34.36pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 32.82% VS 67.18% Alex Stubb KOK <KOK AHEAD>

_FINAL PROJECTION – GENDER & AGE

Man – Stubb(KOK) 69.16%, Haavisto(VIHR) 30.84%

Woman – Haavisto(VIHR) 56.98%, Stubb(KOK) 43.02%

18~36 – Haavisto(VIHR) 54.41%, Stubb(KOK) 45.59%

37~61 – Stubb(KOK) 58.09%, Haavisto(VIHR) 41.91%

62~ – Stubb(KOK) 60.26%, Haavisto(VIHR) 39.74%

_CHATGPT PROJECTION

Alex Stubb(KOK / Center-Right) : 54.53%

(-8.06pp From Last Election)

Pekka Haavisto(VIHR / Center-Left) : 45.47%

(+8.06pp From Last Election)

_R1 BASE PROJECTION

Alex Stubb(KOK / Center-Right) : 55.86%

(-6.73pp From Last Election)

Pekka Haavisto(VIHR / Center-Left) : 44.14%

(+6.73pp From Last Election)

_ELECTORAL RATING

Tossup => Pirkanmaan(Pirkanmaa) / Keski Suomen(Central Finland)

Lean KOK => Savo Karjalan(Savo Karelia) / Lapin(Lapland)

Likely KOK => Varsinais Suomen(Varsinais Suomi)

Safe VIHR => Helsingin(Helsinki) / Ahvenanmaan(Åland)

Safe KOK => Uudenmaan(Uusimaa) / Satakunnan(Satakunta) / Hämeen(Häme) / Kaakkois Suomen(South East Finland) / Vaasan(Vaasa) / Oulun(Oulu)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2024 Finland Presidential Election R2 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 5 polling data(8,997 unweighted / 8,403 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/30 and 2/6. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Finland Presidential Election]2024 R1 FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

28th Jan 202412th Feb 2024 mglee05

R1 FINAL ’24 PROJECTION

_FINAL PROJECTION – NATIONAL

Alex Stubb(KOK / Center-Right) : 25.06%

(-37.58pp From Last Election)

Pekka Haavisto(VIHR / Center-Left) : 23.19%

(+10.79pp From Last Election)

Jussi Halla-aho(PS / Far-Right) : 18.26%

(+11.33pp From Last Election)

Olli Rehn(KESK / Center) : 12.99%

(+2.71pp From Last Election)

Li Andersson(VAS / Left-wing) : 8.47%

(+5.46pp From Last Election)

Jutta Urpilainen(SDP / Center-Left) : 5.95%

(+2.70pp From Last Election)

Mika Aaltola(IND / Lean-Left) : 2.80%

(NEWLY CONTESTED)

Sari Essayah(KD / Center-Right) : 2.25%

(NEWLY CONTESTED)

Hjallis Harkimo(LIIK / Lean-Right) : 1.03%

(-0.47pp From Last Election)

_FINAL PROJECTION – CONSTITUENCY

Pirkanmaan(Pirkanmaa) KOK +0.15pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 24.35% VS 24.50% Alex Stubb KOK <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Satakunnan(Satakunta) PS +0.88pp – KOK Alex Stubb 25.06% VS 25.94% Jussi Halla-aho PS <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Keski Suomen(Central Finland) KOK +1.29pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 22.54% VS 23.83% Alex Stubb KOK <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Uudenmaan(Uusimaa) KOK +2.19pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 25.79% VS 27.98% Alex Stubb KOK <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Oulun(Oulu) KESK +2.44pp – KESK Olli Rehn 23.90% VS 21.46% Alex Stubb KOK <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Varsinais Suomen(Varsinais Suomi) KOK +3.06pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 23.79% VS 26.85% Alex Stubb KOK <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Vaasan(Vaasa) KOK +4.97pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 22.27% VS 27.24% Alex Stubb KOK <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Hämeen(Häme) KOK +5.70pp – KOK Alex Stubb 27.37% VS 21.67% Jussi Halla-aho PS <KOK EDGE>

Lapin(Lapland) KESK +6.68pp – KESK Olli Rehn 27.23% VS 20.55% Alex Stubb KOK <KESK EDGE>

Savo Karjalan(Savo Karelia) KOK +7.51pp – KOK Alex Stubb 26.08% VS 18.57% Jussi Halla-aho PS <KOK EDGE>

Ahvenanmaan(Åland) VIHR +8.56pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 37.71% VS 29.15% Alex Stubb KOK <VIHR EDGE>

Kaakkois Suomen(South East Finland) KOK +8.64pp – KOK Alex Stubb 29.01% VS 20.37% Jussi Halla-aho PS <KOK EDGE>

Helsingin(Helsinki) VIHR +22.98pp – VIHR Pekka Haavisto 42.37% VS 19.39% Alex Stubb KOK <VIHR AHEAD>

_FINAL PROJECTION – GENDER & AGE

Man – Stubb(KOK) 27.23%, Halla-aho(PS) 24.24%, Haavisto(VIHR) 17.50%, Rehn(KESK) 12.84%, Andersson(VAS) 6.68%, Urpilainen(SDP) 5.08%, Aaltola(IND) 2.91%, Essayah(KD) 1.96%, Harkimo(LIIK) 1.56%

Woman – Haavisto(VIHR) 29.21%, Stubb(KOK) 24.18%, Rehn(KESK) 12.93%, Halla-aho(PS) 11.60%, Andersson(VAS) 10.11%, Urpilainen(SDP) 6.88%, Aaltola(IND) 2.36%, Essayah(KD) 2.23%, Harkimo(LIIK) 0.50%

18~34 – Haavisto(VIHR) 26.46%, Stubb(KOK) 22.22%, Halla-aho(PS) 20.19%, Andersson(VAS) 10.96%, Rehn(KESK) 9.75%, Urpilainen(SDP) 5.68%, Aaltola(IND) 2.28%, Essayah(KD) 1.68%, Harkimo(LIIK) 0.78%

35~49 – Stubb(KOK) 24.82%, Haavisto(VIHR) 23.48%, Halla-aho(PS) 18.79%, Rehn(KESK) 12.68%, Andersson(VAS) 8.87%, Urpilainen(SDP) 5.61%, Aaltola(IND) 2.25%, Essayah(KD) 2.24%, Harkimo(LIIK) 1.26%

50~64 – Stubb(KOK) 27.83%, Haavisto(VIHR) 22.29%, Halla-aho(PS) 18.47%, Rehn(KESK) 12.79%, Andersson(VAS) 6.32%, Urpilainen(SDP) 4.87%, Aaltola(IND) 2.90%, Essayah(KD) 2.67%, Harkimo(LIIK) 1.86%

65~ – Stubb(KOK) 27.27%, Haavisto(VIHR) 22.33%, Rehn(KESK) 16.11%, Halla-aho(PS) 13.85%, Andersson(VAS) 7.66%, Urpilainen(SDP) 7.51%, Aaltola(IND) 2.69%, Essayah(KD) 1.91%, Harkimo(LIIK) 0.67%

_CHATGPT PROJECTION

Alex Stubb(KOK / Center-Right) : 25.37%

(-37.27pp From Last Election)

Pekka Haavisto(VIHR / Center-Left) : 23.59%

(+11.19pp From Last Election)

Jussi Halla-aho(PS / Far-Right) : 17.57%

(+10.64pp From Last Election)

Olli Rehn(KESK / Center) : 13.12%

(+2.84pp From Last Election)

Li Andersson(VAS / Left-wing) : 8.34%

(+5.33pp From Last Election)

Jutta Urpilainen(SDP / Center-Left) : 5.98%

(+2.73pp From Last Election)

Mika Aaltola(IND / Lean-Left) : 2.71%

(NEWLY CONTESTED)

Sari Essayah(KD / Center-Right) : 2.26%

(NEWLY CONTESTED)

Hjallis Harkimo(LIIK / Lean-Right) : 1.06%

(-0.44pp From Last Election)

_ELECTORAL RATING

Tossup => Uudenmaan(Uusimaa) / Varsinais Suomen(Varsinais Suomi) / Satakunnan(Satakunta) / Pirkanmaan(Pirkanmaa) / Keski Suomen(Central Finland) / Oulun(Oulu)

Lean KOK => Hämeen(Häme) / Vaasan(Vaasa)

Likely KOK => Kaakkois Suomen(South East Finland) / Savo Karjalan(Savo Karelia)

Likely VIHR => Ahvenanmaan(Åland)

Likely KESK => Lapin(Lapland)

Safe VIHR => Helsingin(Helsinki)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2024 Finland Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 5 polling data(8,637 unweighted / 5,523 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/16 and 1/23. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.