MARCH ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in United Kingdom, we are projecting that the Labour Party will take the majority in the next parliament.

_SEAT PROJECTION

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 395 Seats

(+14 From Feb ’23, +192 From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 155 Seats

(-25 From Feb ’23, -210 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 50 Seats

(-5 From Feb ’23, +2 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 26 Seats

(+16 From Feb ’23, +15 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 4 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Right-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +1 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 47.27%

(-0.34pp From Feb ’23, +15.11pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 25.45%

(+2.10pp From Feb ’23, -18.18pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 9.03%

(-0.13pp From Feb ’23, -2.52pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Right-wing Big Tent) : 6.54%

(+0.19pp From Feb ’23, +4.53pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.04%

(-0.88pp From Feb ’23, +2.34pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 3.73%

(-0.72pp From Feb ’23, -0.15pp From Last Election)

Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.76%

(+0.00pp From Feb ’23, +0.28pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.20%

(+0.09pp From Feb ’23, +0.13pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 1.98%

(-0.31pp From Feb ’23, -1.54pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 United Kingdom General Election March Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 10 polling data(15,936 unweighted / 14,775 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 2/21 and 2/28.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboards

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Spain General Election]2023 March Projection / Prediction / Forecast

16th Mar 202327th Mar 2023 mglee05

MARCH ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in Spain, we are projecting that People’s will again emerge as the largest party beating Socialists, but do not have the majority even with the support from its alies.

_SEAT PROJECTION

People’s Party(PP / Center-Right) : 118 Seats

(+29 From Last Election)

Socialist Workers’ Party(PSOE / Center-Left) : 95 Seats

(-25 From Last Election)

Voice(VOX / Far-Right) : 56 Seats

(+4 From Last Election)

Unite(SUMAR / Left-wing) : 43 Seats

(+5 From Last Election)

Republics Now(AR / Center-Left) : 17 Seats

(-2 From Last Election)

Coalition For A Solidary Europe(CEUS / Big Tent) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Together For Catalonia(JUNTS / Big Tent) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Popular Unity Candidacy(CUP / Left-wing) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Navarrese People’s Union(UPN / Right-wing) : 1 Seat

(-1 From Last Election)

Cantabria Regionalist party(PRC / Lean-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Empty Spain(EV / Big Tent) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Citizens(CS / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(-10 From Last Election)

Animalist Party Against Mistreatment Of Animals(PACMA / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTR / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

People’s Party(PP / Center-Right) : 31.25%

(+10.26pp From Last Election)

Socialist Workers’ Party(PSOE / Center-Left) : 25.78%

(-2.47pp From Last Election)

Voice(VOX / Far-Right) : 14.72%

(-0.49pp From Last Election)

Unite(SUMAR / Left-wing) : 13.60%

(-1.85pp From Last Election)

Republics Now(AR / Center-Left) : 5.02%

(-0.39pp From Last Election)

Citizens(CS / Lean-Right) : 2.21%

(-4.65pp From Last Election)

Coalition For A Solidary Europe(CEUS / Big Tent) : 2.12%

(-0.03pp From Last Election)

Together For Catalonia(JUNTS / Big Tent) : 2.10%

(-0.11pp From Last Election)

Popular Unity Candidacy(CUP / Left-wing) : 0.93%

(-0.10pp From Last Election)

Animalist Party Against Mistreatment Of Animals(PACMA / Center-Left) : 0.90%

(-0.05pp From Last Election)

Navarrese People’s Union(UPN / Right-wing) : 0.37%

(-0.04pp From Last Election)

Cantabria Regionalist party(PRC / Lean-Left) : 0.25%

(-0.04pp From Last Election)

Empty Spain(EV / Big Tent) : 0.13%

(+0.05pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTR / Mixed) : 0.62%

(-0.08pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Spain General Election March Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 12 polling data(10,518 unweighted / 9,160 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 2/21 and 2/28.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, Italy

[Italy General Election]2023 March Projection / Prediction / Forecast

10th Mar 202327th Mar 2023 mglee05

MARCH ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will clinch the victory over Center-Left, but it is still Extremely Close between Center-Left & Center-Right in the vote level, which means Center-Left could win if unified.

_SEAT PROJECTION

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 250 Seats

(+3 From Feb ’23, +13 From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 69 Seats

(+3 From Feb ’23, -16 From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 56 Seats

(-4 From Feb ’23, +4 From Last Election)

Center Coalition(CX / Center) : 20 Seats

(-2 From Feb ’23, -1 From Last Election)

Eurosceptic Coalition(IE / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

-By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 132 Seats

(+1 From Feb ’23, +13 From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 66 Seats

(+1 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 60 Seats

(+3 From Feb ’23, -14 From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 56 Seats

(-4 From Feb ’23, +4 From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 44 Seats

(+1 From Feb ’23, -1 From Last Election)

Third Pole(TP / Center) : 20 Seats

(-2 From Feb ’23, -1 From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 9 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’23, -3 From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’23, +1 From Last Election)

South Tyrolean People’s Party + Trentino Tyrolean Autonomist Party(SVP+PATT / Lean-Right) : 3 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

South Calls North(ScN / Big Tent) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, -2 From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Left-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Sovereign & Popular Democracy(DSP / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 46.18%

(+0.57pp From Feb ’23, +3.05pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 22.87%

(+1.03pp From Feb ’23, -3.68pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 16.97%

(-1.07pp From Feb ’23, +1.80pp From Last Election)

Center Coalition(CX / Center) : 7.52%

(-0.64pp From Feb ’23, -0.17pp From Last Election)

Eurosceptic Coalition(IE / Big Tent) : 2.77%

(+0.11pp From Feb ’23, -0.26pp From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 1.01%

(+0.00pp From Feb ’23, -0.37pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 2.68%

(+0.00pp From Feb ’23, -0.37pp From Last Election)

-By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 29.41%

(+0.00pp From Feb ’23, +4.42pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 17.24%

(+0.92pp From Feb ’23, -2.82pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 16.97%

(-1.07pp From Feb ’23, +1.80pp From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 9.15%

(+0.46pp From Feb ’23, -0.30pp From Last Election)

Third Pole(TP / Center) : 7.52%

(-0.64pp From Feb ’23, -0.17pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 7.28%

(+0.13pp From Feb ’23, -0.51pp From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 3.04%

(-0.20pp From Feb ’23, -0.63pp From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 2.59%

(+0.31pp From Feb ’23, -0.23pp From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 2.03%

(+0.09pp From Feb ’23, +0.20pp From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Left-wing Big Tent) : 1.01%

(+0.00pp From Feb ’23, -0.37pp From Last Election)

Sovereign & Popular Democracy(DSP / Big Tent) : 0.74%

(+0.02pp From Feb ’23, -0.46pp From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 0.34%

(-0.02pp From Feb ’23, -0.56pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 2.68%

(+0.00pp From Feb ’23, -0.37pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Italy General Election March Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 13 polling data(19,984 unweighted / 15,993 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 2/21 and 2/28.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, Poland

[Estonia General Election]2023 EXCEL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

4th Mar 20234th Mar 2023 mglee05

EXCEL ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s EXCEL Projection in Estonia, Reform Party retain its position as largest party, and Kaja Kallas would likely remain Prime Minister after support from current governing partners of Social Democrats & Fatherland, plus Estonia 200.

_SEAT PROJECTION

Reform Party(RFM / Lean-Right) : 31 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Center Party(KESK / Lean-Left) : 18 Seats

(-8 From Last Election)

Conservative People’s Party(EKRE / Far-Right) : 18 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Estonia 200(E200 / Center) : 15 Seats

(+15 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SDE / Center-Left) : 11 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Fatherland Party(IE / Center-Right) : 8 Seats

(-4 From Last Election)

The Right(PP / Right-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Green Party(ROH / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(MUUD / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

Reform Party(RFM / Lean-Right) : 28.77%

(-0.17pp From Last Election)

Center Party(KESK / Lean-Left) : 16.83%

(-6.27pp From Last Election)

Conservative People’s Party(EKRE / Far-Right) : 16.83%

(-0.93pp From Last Election)

Estonia 200(E200 / Center) : 13.83%

(+9.47pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SDE / Center-Left) : 9.81%

(-0.03pp From Last Election)

Fatherland Party(IE / Center-Right) : 7.88%

(-3.57pp From Last Election)

The Right(PP / Right-wing) : 2.28%

(NEW PARTY)

Green Party(ROH / Center-Left) : 1.92%

(+0.10pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(MUUD / Mixed) : 1.86%

(-0.51pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

2023-estonia-general-election-excel-projection Download

2019-estonia-general-election-excel-projection Download

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K6GM652hNfKNmbqfAZuVapjSpatIYyaZ1dR8JkiIHlE/

SPREADSHEET – Estonia GE2023 EXCEL Projection

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Estonia General Election EXCEL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 8 polling data(18,394 sample size) fieldwork done between 2/15 and 3/2.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBAL ELECTION PROJECTION DASHBOARD

Europe, Poland

[Poland General Election]2023 February Projection / Prediction / Forecast

23rd Feb 202323rd Feb 2023 mglee05

FEBRUARY ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Poland, United Rights will remain the largest party, but no longer with a majority, while Civic Coalition maintains its strength. There is a three way race for the third place between Poland 2050, The Left, Confederation, and Polish Coalition is back above the threshold of 5% for the first time in 2 years.

_SEAT PROJECTION

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 170 Seats

(-65 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Big Tent) : 132 Seats

(-2 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 48 Seats

(NEW PARTY)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 42 Seats

(-7 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 41 Seats

(+30 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 26 Seats

(-4 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Right-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Agreement + AGROunion(P+AU / Center-Right Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.06%

(-8.53pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Big Tent) : 28.67%

(+1.27pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 10.21%

(NEW PARTY)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 9.72%

(-2.84pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 7.97%

(+1.17pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 5.25%

(-3.30pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Right-wing Big Tent) : 1.10%

(NEW PARTY)

Agreement + AGROunion(P+AU / Center-Right Big Tent) : 0.33%

(NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.69%

(+0.59pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Poland General Election February Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 7 polling data(7,313 unweighted / 5,204 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/23 and 1/30.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

GLOBE ELECTIONS PROJECTION / PREDICTION / FORECAST DASHBOARD

Europe, United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2023 February Projection / Prediction / Forecast

19th Feb 202319th Feb 2023 mglee05

FEBRUARY ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in United Kingdom, we are projecting that the Labour Party will take the majority in the next parliament.

_SEAT PROJECTION

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 381 Seats

(+178 From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 180 Seats

(-185 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 55 Seats

(+7 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 10 Seats

(-1 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 4 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 1 Seat

(+1 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 47.61%

(+15.45pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 23.35%

(-20.28pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 9.16%

(-2.39pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 6.35%

(+4.34pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.92%

(+3.22pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.45%

(+0.57pp From Last Election)

Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.76%

(+0.28pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.11%

(+0.04pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 2.29%

(-1.23pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 United Kingdom General Election February Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 11 polling data(44,068 unweighted / 28,219 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/24 and 1/31.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, Italy

[Italy General Election]2023 February Projection / Prediction / Forecast

16th Feb 202319th Feb 2023 mglee05

FEBRUARY ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will hold control of both Senate & Chamber, but it is Extremely Close between Center-Left + Five Star & Center-Right in the vote level.

_SEAT PROJECTION

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 247 Seats

(+10 From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 66 Seats

(-19 From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 60 Seats

(+8 From Last Election)

Center Coalition(CX / Center) : 22 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Eurosceptic Coalition(IE / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

-By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 131 Seats

(+12 From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 65 Seats

(-1 From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 60 Seats

(+8 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 57 Seats

(-14 From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 43 Seats

(-2 From Last Election)

Third Pole(TP / Center) : 22 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 9 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 8 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 0 Seat

(-2 From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Left-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Sovereign & Popular Democracy(DSP / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 45.61%

(+2.48pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 21.84%

(-4.71pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.04%

(+2.87pp From Last Election)

Center Coalition(CX / Center) : 8.16%

(+0.47pp From Last Election)

Eurosceptic Coalition(IE / Big Tent) : 2.66%

(-0.37pp From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 1.01%

(-0.37pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 2.68%

(-0.37pp From Last Election)

-By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 29.41%

(+4.42pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.04%

(+2.87pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 16.32%

(-3.74pp From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 8.69%

(-0.76pp From Last Election)

Third Pole(TP / Center) : 8.16%

(+0.47pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 7.15%

(-0.64pp From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 3.24%

(-0.43pp From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 2.28%

(-0.54pp From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 1.94%

(+0.11pp From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Left-wing Big Tent) : 1.01%

(-0.37pp From Last Election)

Sovereign & Popular Democracy(DSP / Big Tent) : 0.72%

(-0.48pp From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 0.36%

(-0.54pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 2.68%

(-0.37pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Italy General Election February Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 11 polling data(17,432 unweighted / 15,165 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/24 and 1/31.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, Germany

[Germany Berlin Election]2023 FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

12th Feb 202312th Feb 2023 mglee05

FINAL ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

(None)

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Germany Berlin, we are projecting that it is Too Close To Call between Christian Dems & Social Dems, while Greens are slightly behind. The Left, Alternative, Free Dems are also expected to enter the next parliament again.

_SEAT PROJECTION

Christian Democratic Union(CDU / Center-Right) : 42 Seats

(+12 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 33 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 30 Seats

(-2 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 19 Seats

(-5 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 16 Seats

(+3 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11 Seats

(-1 From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

_PROPORTIONAL VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

Christian Democratic Union(CDU / Center-Right) : 24.48%

(+6.44pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 20.44%

(-0.99pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 17.59%

(-1.29pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 11.56%

(-2.49pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.63%

(+1.63pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 6.13%

(-1.02pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 10.17%

(-2.28pp From Last Election)

_CONSTITUENCY VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

Christian Democratic Union(CDU / Center-Right) : 26.35%

(+6.69pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 22.00%

(-1.36pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 18.39%

(-1.60pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 11.33%

(-2.62pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.60%

(+1.53pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 5.58%

(-1.01pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 6.75%

(-1.63pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Germany Berlin Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 7 polling data(8,250 unweighted / 5,858 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 2/2 and 2/9.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Cyprus Presidential Election]2023 2nd Round FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

12th Feb 202312th Feb 2023 mglee05

FINAL ’23 R2 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video (R1 BASE)

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in Cyprus, we are projecting Nikos Christodoulides is Ahead of Andreas Mavroyiannis and will be the next President for Republic Of Cyprus.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Nikos Christodoulides(DIKO / Center) : 55.60%

(-0.39pp From Last Election)

Andreas Mavroyiannis(AKEL / Left-wing) : 44.40%

(+0.39pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Cyprus Presidential Election R2 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 10 polling data(11,147 unweighted / 6,723 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/19 and 1/26. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Cyprus Presidential Election]2023 2nd Round R1 BASE Projection / Prediction / Forecast

10th Feb 202311th Feb 2023 mglee05

R1 BASE ’23 R2 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round R1 BASE Projection in Cyprus, we are projecting Nikos Christodoulides will likely be elected as the next president, defeating Andreas Mavroyiannis.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Nikos Christodoulides(DIKO / Center) : 54.12%

(-1.87pp From Last Election)

Andreas Mavroyiannis(AKEL / Left-wing) : 45.88%

(+1.87pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Cyprus Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects the results of the 1st Round. R1 Base Projection is calculated by allocating votes of R1 based on political spectrum and support of each candidates & parties/alliances.