Europe

[Denmark General Election]2022 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’22 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Sweden, we are projecting that it is a Key Race between Red Bloc led by Mette Frederiksen & Blue Bloc led by Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, with Purple Bloc led by Lars Rasmussen placed as a kingmaker.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Social Democratic Party(SD / Center-Left) : 47 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Liberal Party(VEN / Center-Right) : 25 Seats

(-19 From Last Election)

Green Left(SF / Left-wing) : 16 Seats

(+2 From Last Election)

Moderates(MOD / Center) : 16 Seats

(NEW PARTY)

Denmark Democrats(DD / Right-wing) : 14 Seats

(NEW PARTY)

Liberal Alliance(LA / Center-Right) : 13 Seats

(+9 From Last Election)

Unity List(EL / Left-wing) : 11 Seats

(-2 From Last Election)

Conservative People’s Party(DKF / Center-Right) : 11 Seats

(-1 From Last Election)

New Right(NB / Right-wing) : 8 Seats

(+4 From Last Election)

Social Liberal Party(RV / Lean-Left) : 7 Seats

(-9 From Last Election)

The Alternative(ALT / Left-wing) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Danish People’s Party(DF / Far-Right) : 5 Seats

(-11 From Last Election)

Christian Democrats(KD / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Independent Greens(FG / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Other Parties(AND / Mixed) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SD / Center-Left) : 25.28%

(-0.65pp From Last Election)

Liberal Party(VEN / Center-Right) : 13.59%

(-9.74pp From Last Election)

Green Left(SF / Left-wing) : 9.11%

(+1.50pp From Last Election)

Moderates(MOD / Center) : 8.79%

(NEW PARTY)

Denmark Democrats(DD / Right-wing) : 7.66%

(NEW PARTY)

Liberal Alliance(LA / Center-Right) : 7.65%

(+5.35pp From Last Election)

Unity List(EL / Left-wing) : 6.50%

(-0.35pp From Last Election)

Conservative People’s Party(DKF / Center-Right) : 6.03%

(-0.68pp From Last Election)

New Right(NB / Right-wing) : 4.29%

(+1.96pp From Last Election)

Social Liberal Party(RV / Lean-Left) : 4.24%

(-4.35pp From Last Election)

The Alternative(ALT / Left-wing) : 2.83%

(-0.08pp From Last Election)

Danish People’s Party(DF / Far-Right) : 2.75%

(-5.87pp From Last Election)

Christian Democrats(KD / Lean-Right) : 0.63%

(-1.13pp From Last Election)

Independent Greens(FG / Left-wing) : 0.58%

(NEW PARTY)

Other Parties(AND / Mixed) : 0.07%

(-3.05pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 Denmark General Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 11 polling data(total 21,169 unweighted / 19,743 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/24 and 10/31. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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Europe

[Bulgaria General Election]2022 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’22 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Bulgaria, we are projecting that it is a Key Race situation between Coat Of Arms + Democratic Forces & We Continue Change, and there’s also a close fight for the third place.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Coat Of Arms + Union Of Democratic Forces(GERB+SDS / Center-Right) : 75 Seats

(+16 From Last Election)

We Continue The Change(PP / Lean-Left) : 48 Seats

(-19 From Last Election)

BSP For Bulgaria(BSPzB / Center-Left) : 31 Seats

(+5 From Last Election)

Revival(VAZ / Far-Right) : 29 Seats

(+16 From Last Election)

Movement For Rights & Freedoms(DPS / Center) : 28 Seats

(-6 From Last Election)

Democratic Bulgaria(DB / Lean-Right) : 13 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Bulgarian Rise(BV / Big Tent) : 10 Seats

(NEW PARTY)

There Is Such A People(ITN / Big Tent) : 6 Seats

(-19 From Last Election)

Stand Up Bulgaria(ISBG / Center-Left Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

BMPO – National Movement(VMRO / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(DRUGI / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Coat Of Arms + Union Of Democratic Forces(GERB+SDS / Center-Right) : 26.18%

(+3.44pp From Last Election)

We Continue The Change(PP / Lean-Left) : 17.21%

(-8.46pp From Last Election)

Movement For Rights & Freedoms(DPS / Center) : 12.70%

(-0.30pp From Last Election)

Revival(VAZ / Far-Right) : 11.40%

(+6.54pp From Last Election)

BSP For Bulgaria(BSPzB / Center-Left) : 10.41%

(+0.20pp From Last Election)

Democratic Bulgaria(DB / Lean-Right) : 7.48%

(+1.11pp From Last Election)

There Is Such A People(ITN / Big Tent) : 4.31%

(-5.21pp From Last Election)

Bulgarian Rise(BV / Big Tent) : 4.21%

(NEW PARTY)

Stand Up Bulgaria(ISBG / Center-Left Big Tent) : 1.93%

(-0.36pp From Last Election)

BMPO – National Movement(VMRO / Far-Right) : 1.03%

(-0.05pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(DRUGI / Mixed) : 3.14%

(-1.12pp From Last Election)

_FULL RESULTS/DETAILS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 Bulgaria General Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 7 polling data(total 7,117 unweighted / 4,776 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 9/22 and 9/29. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Global Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, Italy, SPECIAL - 2022 IT General Election

[Italy General Election]2022 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’22 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Italy, we are projecting that now it is Extremely Close between Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement and Center-Right Coalition on the extended coalition level.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 46.21%

(+8.69pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 28.51%

(+3.18pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 12.76%

(+19.90pp From Last Election)

Center Coalition(CX / Lean-Left) : 6.48%

(+6.42pp From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 2.66%

(+1.71pp From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 1.04%

(-0.10pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 2.34%

(+0.00pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 24.98%

(+0.57pp From 9/9 ’22, +20.64pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 22.11%

(-0.07pp From 9/9 ’22, +2.73pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 12.76%

(+0.40pp From 9/9 ’22, -19.90pp From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 12.37%

(-0.47pp From 9/9 ’22, -4.98pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 7.40%

(-0.09pp From 9/9 ’22, -6.59pp From Last Election)

Action + Italy Alive(AZ+IV / Lean-Left) : 6.48%

(+0.07pp From 9/9 ’22, +6.42pp From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 3.58%

(+0.16pp From 9/9 ’22, +0.19pp From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 2.66%

(-0.02pp From 9/9 ’22, +1.71pp From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 1.85%

(-0.18pp From 9/9 ’22, -0.71pp From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 1.46%

(-0.28pp From 9/9 ’22, -0.38pp From Last Election)

Popular Union(UP / Far-Left) : 1.04%

(NEW ENTRY, -0.10pp From Last Election)

Civic Commitment(IC / Lean-Left) : 0.97%

(-0.22pp From 9/9 ’22, NEW PARTY)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 2.34%

(-0.93pp From 9/9 ’21, +0.00pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Sweden General Election]2022 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’22 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Sweden, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Red & Greens, led by Magdalena Andersson and Conservatives, led by Ulf Kristersson.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (By Coalition)

Conservative Bloc(KB / Right-wing) : 154 Seats

(+0 From 9/8 ’22, +0 From Last Election)

Red & Greens(R&G / Center-Left) : 150 Seats

(+2 From 9/8 ’22, +6 From Last Election)

Center & Liberals(C&L / Lean-Right) : 45 Seats

(-2 From 9/8 ’22, -6 From Last Election)

Other Parties(ÖVR / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From 9/8 ’22, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection (By Coalition)

Conservative Bloc(KB / Right-wing) : 43.78%

(+0.05pp Rom 9/8 ’22,+0.09pp From Last Election)

Red & Greens(R&G / Center-Left) : 42.50%

(+0.23pp From 9/8 ’22, +1.82pp From Last Election)

Center & Liberals(C&L / Lean-Right) : 12.65%

(-0.25pp From 9/8 ’22, -1.45pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(ÖVR / Mixed) : 1.07%

(-0.03pp From 9/8 ’22,-0.46pp From Last Election)

-Seat Projection (By Party)

Social Democratic Party(S / Center-Left – R&G) : 103 Seats

(+1 From 9/8 ’22, +3 From Last Election)

Sweden Democrats(SD / Right-wing- KB) : 72 Seats

(+1 From 9/8 ’22, +10 From Last Election)

Moderate Party(M / Center-Right- KB) : 62 Seats

(+0 From 9/8 ’22, -8 From Last Election)

Left Party(V / Left-wing – R&G) : 27 Seats

(-1 From 9/8 ’22, -1 From Last Election)

Center Party(C / Center – C&L) : 27 Seats

(+0 From 9/8 ’22, -4 From Last Election)

Christian Democrats(KD / Center-Right- KB) : 20 Seats

(-1 From 9/8 ’22, -2 From Last Election)

Green Party(MP / Center-Left – R&G) : 20 Seats

(+1 From 9/8 ’22, +4 From Last Election)

Liberals(L / Center – C&L) : 18 Seats

(-1 From 9/8 ’22, -2 From Last Election)

Other Parties(Ö / Mixed – ÖVR) : 0 Seat

(+0 From 9/8 ’22, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection (By Party)

Social Democratic Party(S / Center-Left – R&G) : 29.28%

(+0.41pp From 9/8 ’22, +1.02pp From Last Election)

Sweden Democrats(SD / Right-wing- KB) : 20.41%

(+0.25pp From 9/8 ’22, +2.88pp From Last Election)

Moderate Party(M / Center-Right- KB) : 17.59%

(+0.10pp From 9/8 ’22, -2.25pp From Last Election)

Left Party(V / Left-wing – R&G) : 7.64%

(-0.38pp From 9/8 ’22, -0.37pp From Last Election)

Center Party(C / Center – C&L) : 7.60%

(-0.01pp From 9/8 ’22, -1.01pp From Last Election)

Christian Democrats(KD / Center-Right- KB) : 5.78%

(-0.30pp From 9/8 ’22, -0.54pp From Last Election)

Green Party(MP / Center-Left – R&G) : 5.58%

(+0.20pp From 9/8 ’22, +1.17pp From Last Election)

Liberals(L / Center – C&L) : 5.05%

(-0.24pp From 9/8 ’22, -0.44pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(Ö / Mixed – ÖVR) : 1.07%

(-0.03pp, From 9/8 ’22, -0.46pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 Sweden General Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 13 polling data(total 25,138 unweighted / 21,035 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 9/2 and 9/9. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, Italy, SPECIAL - 2022 IT General Election

[Italy General Election]2022 8/30 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

8/30 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR SEPTEMBER WEEK 1

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 24.54%

(+0.51pp From 8/22 ’22, +20.19pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 22.95%

(-1.13pp From 8/22 ’22, +3.61pp From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 13.65%

(-0.26pp From 8/22 ’22, -3.70pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 10.88%

(+0.15pp From 8/22 ’22, -21.80pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 7.80%

(+0.13pp From 8/22 ’22, -6.20pp From Last Election)

Action + Italy Alive(AZ+IV / Lean-Left) : 5.46%

(+0.21pp From 8/22 ’22, +5.40pp From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 3.05%

(-0.10pp From 8/22 ’22, -0.92pp From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 2.60%

(+0.38pp From 8/22 ’22, +1.99pp From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 2.06%

(-0.01pp From 8/22 ’22, -0.50pp From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 1.48%

(-0.23pp From 8/22 ’22, -0.36pp From Last Election)

Civic Commitment(IC / Lean-Left) : 0.95%

(+0.15pp From 8/22 ’22, NEW PARTY)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 4.48%

(+0.20pp From 8/22 ’21, +1.12pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 8/30 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 8 polling data(total 13,453 sample size) fieldwork done between 8/20 and 8/27 and reported on Electoral Political Polls. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to Electoral Political Polls homepage(http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/).

Europe, Italy, SPECIAL - 2022 IT General Election

[Italy General Election]2022 8/22 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

8/22 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR AUGUST WEEK 4

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 24.08%

(-0.18pp From 8/20 ’22, +4.74pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 24.03%

(+0.03pp From 8/20 ’22, +19.68pp From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 13.91%

(+0.44pp From 8/20 ’22, -3.44pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 10.73%

(+0.15pp From 8/20 ’22, -21.95pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 7.67%

(-0.87pp From 8/20 ’22, -6.33pp From Last Election)

Action + Italy Alive(AZ+IV / Lean-Left) : 5.25%

(+0.03pp From 8/20 ’22, +5.19pp From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 3.15%

(-0.49pp From 8/20 ’22, -0.82pp From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 2.22%

(-0.22pp From 8/20 ’22, +1.61pp From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 2.07%

(-0.29pp From 8/20 ’22, -0.49pp From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 1.71%

(-0.06pp From 8/20 ’22, -0.13pp From Last Election)

Civic Commitment(IC / Lean-Left) : 0.80%

(-0.01pp From 8/20 ’22, NEW PARTY)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 4.48%

(+1.47pp From 8/20 ’21, +0.92pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 8/22 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 6 polling data(total 11,392 sample size) fieldwork done between 8/13 and 8/20 and reported on Electoral Political Polls. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to Electoral Political Polls homepage(http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/).

Europe, France

[France General Election]2022 2nd Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’22 R2 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in France, we are projecting that the Together would probably be remaining as the largest group in the next national assembly, but the majority for them is now uncertain.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Together(ENS / Center) : 279 Seats

(-71 From Last Election)

New Ecologic & Social People’s Union(NUPES / Left-wing) : 186 Seats

(+129 From Last Election)

Union Of The Right & Center(UDC / Center-Right) : 59 Seats

(-71 From Last Election)

National Rally(RN / Far-Right) : 32 Seats

(+24 From Last Election)

Other Left Parties(DVG / Center-Left) : 8 Seats

(-8 From Last Election)

Other Right Parties(DVD / Center-Right) : 4 Seat

(-2 From Last Election)

Other Center Parties(DVC / Center) : 1 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Reconquest!(REC / Right-wing) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Union For France(UPF / Right-wing) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Last Election)

Extremely Right Parties(EXD / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Last Election)

Extremely Left Parties(EXG / Far-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Animalist Party(PA / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Others(DIV / Mixed) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 France General Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 12 polling data(total 27,277 sample size) fieldwork done between 6/10(12) and 6/17. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, France

[France General Election]2022 1st Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’22 R1 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in France, we are projecting that the Together could be retaining majority in the next national assembly but it is Extremely Close between Together & New People’s on the vote level.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Together(ENS / Center) : 292 Seats

(-58 From Last Election)

New Ecologic & Social People’s Union(NUPES / Left-wing) : 182 Seats

(+125 From Last Election)

Union Of The Right & Center(UDC / Center-Right) : 44 Seats

(-86 From Last Election)

National Rally(RN / Far-Right) : 34 Seats

(+26pp From Last Election)

Other Left Parties(DVG / Center-Left) : 9 Seats

(-7 From Last Election)

Other Right Parties(DVD / Center-Right) : 1 Seat

(-5 From Last Election)

Reconquest!(REC / Right-wing) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Other Center Parties(DVC / Center) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Union For France(UPF / Right-wing) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Last Election)

Extremely Right Parties(EXD / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Last Election)

Extremely Left Parties(EXG / Far-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Animalist Party(PA / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Others(DIV / Mixed) : 15 Seats

(+7 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Together(ENS / Center) : 27.14%

(-5.19pp From Last Election)

New Ecologic & Social People’s Union(NUPES / Left-wing) : 27.12%

(+17.04pp From Last Election)

National Rally(RN / Far-Right) : 19.59%

(+6.39pp From Last Election)

Union Of The Right & Center(UDC / Center-Right) : 10.32%

(-8.48pp From Last Election)

Reconquest!(REC / Right-wing) : 5.91%

(NEW PARTY)

Other Left Parties(DVG / Center-Left) : 3.33%

(-3.04pp From Last Election)

Union For France(UPF / Right-wing) : 1.27%

(+0.10pp From Last Election)

Extremely Left Parties(EXG / Far-Left) : 1.19%

(+0.42pp From Last Election)

Animalist Party(PA / Big Tent) : 0.44%

(NEW PARTY)

Other Right Parties(DVD / Center-Right) : 0.40%

(-2.36pp From Last Election)

Other Center Parties(DVC / Center) : 0.36%

(NEW PARTY)

Extremely Right Parties(EXD / Far-Right) : 0.06%

(-0.24pp From Last Election)

Others(DIV / Mixed) : 2.87%

(-0.24pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 France General Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 13 polling data(total 47,888 sample size) fieldwork done between 6/2 and 6/9. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, France, SPECIAL - 2022 FR Presidential Election

[France Presidential Election]2022 2nd Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’22 R2 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in France, we are projecting that Emmanuel Macron, the incumbent president will be re-elected after defeating Marine Le Pen once again.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Emmanuel Macron(EC / Center) : 55.76%

(-10.34pp From Last Election)

Marine Le Pen(RN / Far-Right) : 44.24%

(+10.34pp From Last Election)

_REGION PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

BF(Bourgogne Franche Comté) – LE PEN +0.54pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

LR(La Réunion) – LE PEN +1.02pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

NO(Normandie) – MACRON +2.56pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

OC(Occitanie) – ​MACRON +4.78pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

CL(Centre Val de Loire) – ​MACRON +5.46pp

GE​(Grand Est) – LE PEN +5.80pp

MY​(Mayotte) – LE PEN +7.48pp

GY(Guyane) – MACRON +8.88pp

-Other Races

PA​(Provence Alpes Côte d’Azur) – ​LE PEN +10.80pp

AR(Auvergne et Rhône Alpes) – ​MACRON +13.80pp

HF​(Hauts de France) – ​LE PEN +15.80pp

NA(Nouvelle Aquitaine) – ​MACRON +17.20pp

CO​(Corse) – ​LE PEN +18.64pp

PL(Pays de la Loire) – ​MACRON +25.84pp

GL(Guadeloupe) – ​MACRON +32.26pp

BR(Bretagne) – ​MACRON +32.82pp

MT(Martinique) – ​MACRON +38.14pp

IF(Île de France) – ​MACRON +41.04pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 France Presidential Election R2 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 23 polling data(total 69,915 sample size) fieldwork done between 4/15 and 4/22 and reported on The Survey Commission(LCDS)’s Notice Page. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data. For each of the polling contents, refer to The Survey Commission homepage(https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/).

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, France, SPECIAL - 2022 FR Presidential Election

[France Presidential Election]2022 4/18 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

4/18 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Emmanuel Macron(EC / Center) : 53.88%

(+0.03pp From 4/17 ’22, -12.22pp From Last Election)

Marine Le Pen(RN / Far-Right) : 46.12%

(-0.03pp From 4/17 ’22, +12.22pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 4/18 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 31 polling data(total 54,887 sample size) fieldwork done between 4/9 and 4/16 and reported on The Survey Commission(LCDS)’s Notice Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as the presidential projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to The Survey Commission homepage(https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/).

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS