According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in Cyprus, we are projecting Nikos Christodoulides will advance to R2 in 1st place, while the 2nd place is left Extremely Close between Averof Neofytou & Andreas Mavroyiannis.
2023 Cyprus Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 10 polling data(11,147 unweighted / 6,723 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/19 and 1/26. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.
2023 Czechia Presidential Election R2 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 4 polling data(6,432 unweighted / 6,432 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/15 and 1/22. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.
According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round R1 BASE Projection in Czechia, we are projecting Petr Pavel is likely elected for the presidnecy over Andrej Babiš.
2023 Czechia Presidential Election R2 R1 BASE Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects the results of the 1st Round. R1 Base Projection is calculated by allocating votes of R1 based on political spectrum and support of each candidates & parties/alliances.
According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in Czechia, we are projecting it is Extremely Close & Too Close To Call between general Petr Pavel, former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, university president Danuše Nerudová.
2023 Czechia Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 4 polling data(5,364 unweighted / 5,364 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/2 and 1/9. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.
According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Sweden, we are projecting that it is a Key Race between Red Bloc led by Mette Frederiksen & Blue Bloc led by Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, with Purple Bloc led by Lars Rasmussen placed as a kingmaker.
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Seat Projection
Social Democratic Party(SD / Center-Left) : 47 Seats
2022 Denmark General Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 11 polling data(total 21,169 unweighted / 19,743 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/24 and 10/31. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection.
According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Bulgaria, we are projecting that it is a Key Race situation between Coat Of Arms + Democratic Forces & We Continue Change, and there’s also a close fight for the third place.
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Seat Projection
Coat Of Arms + Union Of Democratic Forces(GERB+SDS / Center-Right) : 75 Seats
(+16 From Last Election)
We Continue The Change(PP / Lean-Left) : 48 Seats
(-19 From Last Election)
BSP For Bulgaria(BSPzB / Center-Left) : 31 Seats
(+5 From Last Election)
Revival(VAZ / Far-Right) : 29 Seats
(+16 From Last Election)
Movement For Rights & Freedoms(DPS / Center) : 28 Seats
(-6 From Last Election)
Democratic Bulgaria(DB / Lean-Right) : 13 Seats
(-3 From Last Election)
Bulgarian Rise(BV / Big Tent) : 10 Seats
(NEW PARTY)
There Is Such A People(ITN / Big Tent) : 6 Seats
(-19 From Last Election)
Stand Up Bulgaria(ISBG / Center-Left Big Tent) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Last Election)
BMPO – National Movement(VMRO / Far-Right) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Last Election)
Other Parties(DRUGI / Mixed) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection
Coat Of Arms + Union Of Democratic Forces(GERB+SDS / Center-Right) : 26.18%
(+3.44pp From Last Election)
We Continue The Change(PP / Lean-Left) : 17.21%
(-8.46pp From Last Election)
Movement For Rights & Freedoms(DPS / Center) : 12.70%
(-0.30pp From Last Election)
Revival(VAZ / Far-Right) : 11.40%
(+6.54pp From Last Election)
BSP For Bulgaria(BSPzB / Center-Left) : 10.41%
(+0.20pp From Last Election)
Democratic Bulgaria(DB / Lean-Right) : 7.48%
(+1.11pp From Last Election)
There Is Such A People(ITN / Big Tent) : 4.31%
(-5.21pp From Last Election)
Bulgarian Rise(BV / Big Tent) : 4.21%
(NEW PARTY)
Stand Up Bulgaria(ISBG / Center-Left Big Tent) : 1.93%
(-0.36pp From Last Election)
BMPO – National Movement(VMRO / Far-Right) : 1.03%
2022 Bulgaria General Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 7 polling data(total 7,117 unweighted / 4,776 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 9/22 and 9/29. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.
According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Italy, we are projecting that now it is Extremely Close between Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement and Center-Right Coalition on the extended coalition level.
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition
Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 46.21%
(+8.69pp From Last Election)
Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 28.51%
(+3.18pp From Last Election)
Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 12.76%
(+19.90pp From Last Election)
Center Coalition(CX / Lean-Left) : 6.48%
(+6.42pp From Last Election)
Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 2.66%
(+1.71pp From Last Election)
People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 1.04%
(-0.10pp From Last Election)
Others(ALT / Mixed) : 2.34%
(+0.00pp From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection By Party
Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 24.98%
(+0.57pp From 9/9 ’22, +20.64pp From Last Election)
Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 22.11%
(-0.07pp From 9/9 ’22, +2.73pp From Last Election)
Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 12.76%
(+0.40pp From 9/9 ’22, -19.90pp From Last Election)
League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 12.37%
(-0.47pp From 9/9 ’22, -4.98pp From Last Election)
Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 7.40%
(-0.09pp From 9/9 ’22, -6.59pp From Last Election)
Action + Italy Alive(AZ+IV / Lean-Left) : 6.48%
(+0.07pp From 9/9 ’22, +6.42pp From Last Election)
Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 3.58%
(+0.16pp From 9/9 ’22, +0.19pp From Last Election)
Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 2.66%
(-0.02pp From 9/9 ’22, +1.71pp From Last Election)
More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 1.85%
(-0.18pp From 9/9 ’22, -0.71pp From Last Election)
Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 1.46%
(-0.28pp From 9/9 ’22, -0.38pp From Last Election)
Popular Union(UP / Far-Left) : 1.04%
(NEW ENTRY, -0.10pp From Last Election)
Civic Commitment(IC / Lean-Left) : 0.97%
(-0.22pp From 9/9 ’22, NEW PARTY)
Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 2.34%
(-0.93pp From 9/9 ’21, +0.00pp From Last Election)
According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Sweden, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Red & Greens, led by Magdalena Andersson and Conservatives, led by Ulf Kristersson.
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Seat Projection (By Coalition)
Conservative Bloc(KB / Right-wing) : 154 Seats
(+0 From 9/8 ’22, +0 From Last Election)
Red & Greens(R&G / Center-Left) : 150 Seats
(+2 From 9/8 ’22, +6 From Last Election)
Center & Liberals(C&L / Lean-Right) : 45 Seats
(-2 From 9/8 ’22, -6 From Last Election)
Other Parties(ÖVR / Mixed) : 0 Seat
(+0 From 9/8 ’22, +0 From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection (By Coalition)
Conservative Bloc(KB / Right-wing) : 43.78%
(+0.05pp Rom 9/8 ’22,+0.09pp From Last Election)
Red & Greens(R&G / Center-Left) : 42.50%
(+0.23pp From 9/8 ’22, +1.82pp From Last Election)
Center & Liberals(C&L / Lean-Right) : 12.65%
(-0.25pp From 9/8 ’22, -1.45pp From Last Election)
Other Parties(ÖVR / Mixed) : 1.07%
(-0.03pp From 9/8 ’22,-0.46pp From Last Election)
-Seat Projection (By Party)
Social Democratic Party(S / Center-Left – R&G) : 103 Seats
(+1 From 9/8 ’22, +3 From Last Election)
Sweden Democrats(SD / Right-wing- KB) : 72 Seats
(+1 From 9/8 ’22, +10 From Last Election)
Moderate Party(M / Center-Right- KB) : 62 Seats
(+0 From 9/8 ’22, -8 From Last Election)
Left Party(V / Left-wing – R&G) : 27 Seats
(-1 From 9/8 ’22, -1 From Last Election)
Center Party(C / Center – C&L) : 27 Seats
(+0 From 9/8 ’22, -4 From Last Election)
Christian Democrats(KD / Center-Right- KB) : 20 Seats
(-1 From 9/8 ’22, -2 From Last Election)
Green Party(MP / Center-Left – R&G) : 20 Seats
(+1 From 9/8 ’22, +4 From Last Election)
Liberals(L / Center – C&L) : 18 Seats
(-1 From 9/8 ’22, -2 From Last Election)
Other Parties(Ö / Mixed – ÖVR) : 0 Seat
(+0 From 9/8 ’22, +0 From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection (By Party)
Social Democratic Party(S / Center-Left – R&G) : 29.28%
(+0.41pp From 9/8 ’22, +1.02pp From Last Election)
Sweden Democrats(SD / Right-wing- KB) : 20.41%
(+0.25pp From 9/8 ’22, +2.88pp From Last Election)
Moderate Party(M / Center-Right- KB) : 17.59%
(+0.10pp From 9/8 ’22, -2.25pp From Last Election)
Left Party(V / Left-wing – R&G) : 7.64%
(-0.38pp From 9/8 ’22, -0.37pp From Last Election)
Center Party(C / Center – C&L) : 7.60%
(-0.01pp From 9/8 ’22, -1.01pp From Last Election)
Christian Democrats(KD / Center-Right- KB) : 5.78%
(-0.30pp From 9/8 ’22, -0.54pp From Last Election)
Green Party(MP / Center-Left – R&G) : 5.58%
(+0.20pp From 9/8 ’22, +1.17pp From Last Election)
Liberals(L / Center – C&L) : 5.05%
(-0.24pp From 9/8 ’22, -0.44pp From Last Election)
Other Parties(Ö / Mixed – ÖVR) : 1.07%
(-0.03pp, From 9/8 ’22, -0.46pp From Last Election)
2022 Sweden General Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 13 polling data(total 25,138 unweighted / 21,035 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 9/2 and 9/9. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection.
2022 8/30 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 8 polling data(total 13,453 sample size) fieldwork done between 8/20 and 8/27 and reported on Electoral Political Polls. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to Electoral Political Polls homepage(http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/).
2022 8/22 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 6 polling data(total 11,392 sample size) fieldwork done between 8/13 and 8/20 and reported on Electoral Political Polls. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to Electoral Political Polls homepage(http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/).
Global Elections History Society Center (GEHSC.en) 