Category: Notice

Notice

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

mglee05

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are likely to be retaining majority in the next parliament with a majority of 28 seats. Also, the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 346 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+AP+SDLP+GRN)‘s 297 by 49.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 339 Seats

(-3 From Apr ’21, -26 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 226 Seats

(+4 From Apr ’21, +23 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 53 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’21, +5 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(+1 From Apr ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 6 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 5 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.16%

(+0.09pp From Apr ’21, -1.47pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.15%

(+0.42pp From Apr ’21, +2.99pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.86%

(+0.27pp From Apr ’21, -4.97pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.22%

(+0.22pp From Apr ’21, +2.54pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.22%

(-0.22pp From Apr ’21, +0.34pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.35%

(-0.06pp From Apr ’21, -0.66pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.91%

(-0.82pp From Apr ’21, +0.43pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.40%

(-0.73pp From Apr ’21, +0.34pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.73%

(+0.83pp From Apr ’21, +0.11pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.24%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.41%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.57%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.26%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.25%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.06%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.92%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.41%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.88%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gn6n8aOQiDOZ9sFV2D_oHt3gllKZ8KJy47CFIVlrZ3c/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Notice

[Italy General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

mglee05

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will gain the majority of both chambers very likely, after being ahead of Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement by little more than 10%p.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 54.05%

(-0.74pp From Apr ’21, +17.05pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 42.23%

(+0.06pp From Apr ’21, -15.75pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.72%

(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -1.30pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 54.05%

(-0.74pp From Apr ’21, +17.05pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 21.98%

(+0.53pp From Apr ’21, +0.08pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 17.66%

(-0.14pp From Apr ’21, -15.02pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 2.59%

(-0.33pp From Apr ’21, -0.81pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.72%

(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -1.30pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 27.75%

(-1.57pp From Apr ’21, +10.40pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 20.51%

(+1.28pp From Apr ’21, +16.16pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 17.66%

(-0.14pp From Apr ’21, -15.02pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 14.82%

(+0.55pp From Apr ’21, -3.94pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 5.62%

(+0.21pp From Apr ’21, -8.38pp From Last Election)

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.04%

(+0.07pp From Apr ’21, +1.48pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 2.59%

(-0.33pp From Apr ’21, -0.81pp From Last Election)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.85%

(-0.06pp From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.27%

(-0.03pp From Apr ’21, +0.69pp From Last Election)

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.17%

(-0.66pp From Apr ’21, -1.13pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 3.72%

(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -1.30pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 48.35%

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 47.59%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 4.06%

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX) : 48.35%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX) : 28.14%

Five Star Movement(M5S) : 16.31%

Free & Equal(LeU) : 3.14%

Others(ALT) : 4.06%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 21.98%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 19.58%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 18.67%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.31%

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.48%

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.42%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 3.14%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.45%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.69%

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.22%

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 4.06%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_vnaCapG7M3SDAgjo5D4y_3Trx23V64UjFX5RYq1EDc/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Notice

[South Korea General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

mglee05

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in South Korea, People’s Power Party will have the supermajority and the Democrats will only manage to take much fewer than 100 seats. Continuing on, People Party is on the course to increase many seats. Justice Party is up on the seat level but not on the vote share level. Open Democrats will also gain seats, but Progressive Party and People’s Livelihood Party will not.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From May ’21)

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 224 Seats

(+61 From Apr ’21, +121 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 52 Seats

(-50 From Apr ’21, -128 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 11 Seats

(-6 From Apr ’21, +8 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 8 Seats

(-3 From Apr ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 46.47%

(-0.13pp From Apr ’21, +12.63pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 25.96%

(+0.31pp From Apr ’21, -9.23pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10.82%

(-0.87pp From Apr ’21, +4.02pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 7.68%

(-0.22pp From Apr ’21, -1.99pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 4.55%

(+0.23pp From Apr ’21, -0.89pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.52%

(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -6.39pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 57.32%

(+1.79pp From Apr ’21, +15.86pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 39.11%

(+1.78pp From Apr ’21, -10.80pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.37%

(+0.01pp From Apr ’21, -0.34pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.20%

(-3.58pp From Apr ’21, -4.62pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 34.40%

(-1.12pp From Apr ’21, -21.80pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 65.60%

(+1.12pp From Apr ’21, +21.80pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROEJCTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 41.07%

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 37.49%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 8.15%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.07%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 5.02%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.20%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 36.28%

Disapproval : 63.72% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wMuHDlsYC8zU_8EwM8muO3_g1ugM4XbdJfVJRr0AUfk/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/