Asia, South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2023 February Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FEBUARY ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that it is Extremely Call between Democrats, led by Lee Jae-myung & People Power, led by Chung Jin-suk for the overall control of the next National Assembly.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 154 Seats

(+4 From Jan ’23 -29 From Last Election)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 146 Seats

(+6 From Jan ’23, +40 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JUS / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(-10 From Jan ’23, -6 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(PRO / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jan ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jan ’23, -5 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection (Proportional)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 47.97%

(+1.16pp From Jan ’23, +8.88pp From Last Election)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 47.08%

(+0.20pp From Jan ’23, +5.75pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 2.97%

(-1.29pp From Jan ’23, -6.70pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 1.98%

(-0.07pp From Jan ’23, -7.93pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection (Constituency)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 52.37%

(+0.87pp From Jan ’23, +1.61pp From Last Election)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 45.38%

(-0.16pp From Jan ’23, +1.97pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.53%

(-0.68pp From Jan ’23, -0.18pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0.72%

(-0.03pp From Jan ’23, -3.40pp From Last Election)

_FULL RESULTS/DETAILS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 South Korea General Election February Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 16 polling data(total 18,830 unweighted / 16,982 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/24 and 1/31.

For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Global Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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Europe

[Cyprus Presidential Election]2023 1st Round FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’23 R1 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in Cyprus, we are projecting Nikos Christodoulides will advance to R2 in 1st place, while the 2nd place is left Extremely Close between Averof Neofytou & Andreas Mavroyiannis.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Nikos Christodoulides(DIKO / Center) : 34.67%

(+6.75pp From Last Election)

Averof Neofytou(DISY / Center-Right) : 24.79%

(-10.72pp From Last Election)

Andreas Mavroyiannis(AKEL / Left-wing) : 24.62%

(-5.79pp From Last Election)

Christos Christou(ELAM / Far-Right) : 5.51%

(-0.14pp From Last Election)

Achilleas Demetriades(AGTK / Big Tent) : 4.21%

(NEW PARTY)

George Colocassides(ANEX DIKO / Center) : 2.70%

(NEW PARTY)

Constantinos Christofides(NW / Center-Left) : 2.13%

(NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.37%

(+0.86pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Cyprus Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 10 polling data(11,147 unweighted / 6,723 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/19 and 1/26. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Czechia Presidential Election]2023 2nd Round FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’23 R2 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in Czechia, Petr Pavel will be elected the nect president over Andrej Babiš.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Petr Pavel(NEZ SPOLU / Center-Right) : 58.11%

(+9.48pp From Last Election)

Andrej Babiš(ANO / Center Big Tent) : 41.89%

(-9.48pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Czechia Presidential Election R2 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 4 polling data(6,432 unweighted / 6,432 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/15 and 1/22. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Czechia Presidential Election]2023 2nd Round R1 BASE Projection / Prediction / Forecast

R1 BASE ’23 R2 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round R1 BASE Projection in Czechia, we are projecting Petr Pavel is likely elected for the presidnecy over Andrej Babiš.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Petr Pavel(NEZ SPOLU / Center-Right) : 53.53%

(+4.90pp From Last Election)

Andrej Babiš(ANO / Center Big Tent) : 46.47%

(-4.90pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Czechia Presidential Election R2 R1 BASE Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects the results of the 1st Round. R1 Base Projection is calculated by allocating votes of R1 based on political spectrum and support of each candidates & parties/alliances.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Czechia Presidential Election]2023 1st Round FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’23 R1 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in Czechia, we are projecting it is Extremely Close & Too Close To Call between general Petr Pavel, former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, university president Danuše Nerudová.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Petr Pavel(NEZ SPOLU / Center-Right) : 28.61%

(+24.70pp From Last Election)

Andrej Babiš(ANO / Center Big Tent) : 28.40%

(-10.17pp From Last Election)

Danuše Nerudová(NEZ SPOLU / Lean-Right) : 24.04%

(-2.56pp From Last Election)

Pavel Fischer(NEZ SPOLU / Center-Right) : 6.64%

(-3.59pp From Last Election)

Jaroslav Bašta(SPD / Right-wing Big Tent) : 6.38%

(+5.15pp From Last Election)

Marek Hilšer(MHS / Center) : 3.64%

(-5.20pp From Last Election)

Karel Diviš(NEZ / Big Tent) : 1.53%

(NEW PARTY)

Tomáš Zima(NEZ / Big Tent) : 0.76%

(NEW PARTY)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Czechia Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 4 polling data(5,364 unweighted / 5,364 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/2 and 1/9. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Asia, South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2023 January Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JANUARY ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s January Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that it is Extremely Call between Democrats, led by Lee Jae-myung & People Power, led by Chung Jin-suk for the control of the next National Assembly.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 150 Seats

(-63 From Dec ’22, -33 From Last Election)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 140 Seats

(+58 From Dec ’22, +34 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JUS / Center-Left) : 10 Seats

(+5 From Dec ’22, +4 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(PRO / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Dec ’22, +0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Dec ’22, -5 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection (Proportional)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 46.88%

(+5.97pp From Dec ’22, +5.55pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 46.81%

(-5.80pp From Dec ’22, +7.72pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 4.26%

(+0.28pp From Dec ’22, -5.41pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 2.05%

(-0.45pp From Dec ’22, -7.86pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection (Constituency)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 51.50%

(-8.88pp From Dec ’22, +0.74pp From Last Election)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 45.54%

(+7.56pp From Dec ’22, +2.13pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 2.21%

(+1.47pp From Dec ’22, +0.50pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0.75%

(-0.15pp From Dec ’22, -3.37pp From Last Election)

_FULL RESULTS/DETAILS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 South Korea General Election Jaunuary Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 18 polling data(total 19,664 unweighted / 19,164 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 12/24 and 12/31.

For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Global Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

America, United States

[United States Georgia Senate Election]2022 Runoff FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’22 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in US Georgia, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Raphael Warnock the incumbent & Herschel Walker the challenger on the runoff.

_GEORGIA PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Raphael Warnock(DP / Center-Left) : 51.71%

(+0.67pp From Last Election)

Herschel Walker(GOP / Right-wing) : 48.29%

(-0.67pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 United States Georgia Senate Election Runoff(2nd Round) FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 10 polling data(total 10,953 unweighted / 8,005 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 11/28 and 12/5. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard


R1 BASE ’22 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s R1 BASE Projection in US Georgia, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Raphael Warnock & Herschel Walker in a rematch in just one month time.

_GEORGIA PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Raphael Warnock(DP / Center-Left) : 50.49%

(-0.55pp From Last Election)

Herschel Walker(GOP / Right-wing) : 49.51%

(+0.55pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 United States Georgia Senate Election Runoff(2nd Round) R1 BASE Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects the results of the 1st Round. R1 Base Projection is calculated by allocating votes of R1 based on political spectrum and support of each candidates & parties/alliances.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

America, United States

[United States General(House) Election]2022 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’22 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in United States, we are projecting that it is Extremely Call between Democrats & Republicans both in Seat & Vote Share level.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Democratic Party(DP / Center-Left) : 221 Seats

(-7 From Oct ’22, -1 From Last Election)

Republican Party(GOP / Center-Right) : 214 Seats

(+7 From Oct ’22, +1 From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’22, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DP / Center-Left) : 49.34%

(-1.53pp From Oct ’22, -0.93pp From Last Election)

Republican Party(GOP / Center-Right) : 49.19%

(+1.32pp From Oct ’22, +1.96pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 1.47%

(+0.21pp From Oct ’22, -1.03pp From Last Election)

_FULL RESULTS/DETAILS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 United States General Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 18 polling data(total 106,795 unweighted / 15,545 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/31 and 11/7. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Global Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

America, United States

[United States Governor Election]2022 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’22 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in United States, we are projecting that it is Too Close To Call between Republicans & Democrats, with the Republicans quite ahead. However, a opposite picture is expected in terms of governing population.

_NATIONAL MAP

_WISCONSIN PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Tim Michels(GOP / Center-Right) : 50.78%

(+2.34pp From Last Election)

Tony Evers(DP / Center-Left) : 49.00%

(-0.54pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.22%

(-1.80pp From Last Election)

_ARIZONA PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Kari Lake(GOP / Right-wing) : 51.09%

(-4.91pp From Last Election)

Katie Hobbs(DP / Lean-Left) : 48.34%

(+6.50pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.57%

(-1.59pp From Last Election)

_NEVADA PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Joe Lombardo(GOP / Center-Right) : 49.80%

(+4.49pp From Last Election)

Steve Sisolak(DP / Lean-Left) : 46.72%

(-2.67pp From Last Election)

Brandon Davis(LP / Big Tent) : 1.82%

(+0.93pp From Last Election)

Ed Bridges(IAP / Far-Right) : 0.27%

(-0.77pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.39%

(-1.98pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Gretchen Whitmer(DP / Lean-Left) : 50.79%

(-2.52pp From Last Election)

Tudor Dixon(GOP / Right-wing) : 47.63%

(+3.88pp From Last Election)

Mary Buzuma(LP / Big Tent) : 0.30%

(-1.03pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.28%

(-0.33pp From Last Election)

_GEORGIA PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Brian Kemp(GOP / Center-Right) : 53.28%

(+3.06pp From Last Election)

Stacey Abrams(DP / Center-Left) : 45.33%

(-3.50pp From Last Election)

Shane Hazel(LP / Big Tent) : 1.23%

(+0.28pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.16%

(+0.16pp From Last Election)

_FLORIDA PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Ron DeSantis(GOP / Center-Right) : 54.36%

(+4.77pp From Last Election)

Charlie Crist(DP / Center) : 44.31%

(-4.88pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.33%

(+0.11pp From Last Election)

_PENNSYLVANIA PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Josh Shapiro(DP / Left-wing) : 54.54%

(-3.23pp From Last Election)

Doug Mastriano(GOP / Far-Right) : 43.29%

(+2.59pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 2.17%

(+0.64pp From Last Election)

_NEW HAMPSHIRE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Chris Sununu(GOP / Lean-Right) : 57.11%

(-8.01pp From Last Election)

Tom Sherman(DP / Lean-Left) : 40.98%

(+7.62pp From Last Election)

Kelly Halldorson(IND LP / Big Tent) : 0.98%

(NEW PARTY)

Karlyn Borysenko(LP / Big Tent) : 0.12%

(-1.31pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.81%

(+0.72pp From Last Election)

_OHIO PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Mike DeWine(GOP / Center-Right) : 61.14%

(+10.75pp From Last Election)

Nan Whaley(DP / Lean-Left) : 37.96%

(-8.72pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.90%

(-0.91pp From Last Election)

_COLORADO POLLING MEAN

Jared Polis(DP / Center-Left) : 54.14%

Heidi Ganahl(GOP / Right-wing) : 43.20%

Kevin Ruskusky(LP / Big Tent) : 0.91%

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.75%

_NEW MEXICO POLLING MEAN

Michelle Grisham(DP / Center-Left) : 50.75%

Mark Ronchetti(GOP / Center-Right) : 45.69%

Karen Bedonie(LP / Big Tent) : 3.43%

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.13%

_NEW YORK POLLING MEAN

Kathy Hochul(DP / Lean-Left) : 53.06%

Lee Zeldin(GOP / Center-Right) : 46.72%

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.22%

_OKLAHOMA POLLING MEAN

Kevin Stitt(GOP / Right-wing) : 50.25%

Joy Hofmeiste(DP / Center) : 47.45%

Ervin Yen(IND GOP / Lean-Right) : 1.66%

Natalie Bruno(LP / Big Tent) : 0.64%

_OREGON POLLING MEAN

Tina Kotek(DP / Lean-Left) : 47.03%

Christine Drazan(GOP / Lean-Right) : 43.54%

Betsy Johnson(IND DP / Lean-Right) : 7.58%

Leon Noble(LP / Big Tent) : 0.59%

Donice Smith(CP / Far-Right) : 0.38%

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.88%

_TEXAS POLLING MEAN

Greg Abbott(GOP / Center-Right) : 54.51%

Beto O’Rourke(DP / Lean-Left) : 43.59%

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.90%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 United States Governor Election FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 83 polling data(total 73,972 unweighted / 61,389 weighted sample size) fieldwork done mostly(exception for Pennsylvania) between 10/31 and 11/7. Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard