Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Germany, we are projecting that it is too close to call between the Social Democrats and the Unions. Greens are at strong 3rd, and Alternative, Free Democrats, The Left follows after.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 203 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, +50 From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 149 Seats

(+21 From Sep ’21, -97 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 122 Seats

(-17 From Aug ’21, +55 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 81 Seats

(+2 From Sep ’21, -13 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 75 Seats

(-2 From Sep ’21, -5 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 40 Seats

(-2 From Sep ’21, -29 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 23.41%

(+0.17pp From Sep ’21, +2.90pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 20.96%

(+2.57pp From Sep ’21, -11.79pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 18.60%

(-2.94pp From Sep ’21, +9.66pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.54%

(-0.36pp From Sep ’21, +0.79pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.09%

(+0.07pp From Sep ’21, -1.55pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 5.90%

(-0.39pp From Sep ’21, -3.34pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 1.98%

(NEW ENTRY, +0.99pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.52%

(-1.10pp From Sep ’21, +2.52pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 28.87%

(+0.00pp From Sep ’21, +4.23pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 24.44%

(+2.84pp From Sep ’21, -12.82pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 17.33%

(-2.89pp From Sep ’21, +9.31pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.36%

(-0.01pp From Sep ’21, -1.10pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.75%

(-0.30pp From Sep ’21, +0.75pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 5.62%

(-0.42pp From Sep ’21, -2.93pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 2.61%

(NEW ENTRY, +1.34pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 3.02%

(-1.83pp From Sep ’21, +1.22pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 25.30% 

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 22.10% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 15.61% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.40%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.91%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.28%

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 1.96%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.44%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Iceland General Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Independence Party(D / Right-wing) : 13 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(B / Lean-Right) : 11 Seats

(+3 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Alliance(S / Center-Left) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Left Green Movement(V / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(-4 From Last Election)

Pirate Party(P / Big Tent) : 7 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Socialist Party(J / Left-wing) : 5 Seats

(NEW PARTY)

People’s Party(F / Big Tent) : 5 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Reform Party(C / Lean-Right) : 4 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Center Party(M / Center) : 4 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Others(O / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Independence Party(D / Right-wing) : 21.67%

(-3.58pp From Last Election)

Progressive Party(B / Lean-Right) : 14.44%

(+3.73pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Alliance(S / Center-Left) : 12.90%

(+0.85pp From Last Election)

Left Green Movement(V / Left-wing) : 11.06%

(-5.83pp From Last Election)

Pirate Party(P / Big Tent) : 10.38%

(+1.18pp From Last Election)

Reform Party(C / Lean-Right) : 10.25%

(+3.56pp From Last Election)

Center Party(M / Center) : 6.24%

(-4.63pp From Last Election)

Socialist Party(J / Left-wing) : 6.15%

(NEW PARTY)

People’s Party(F / Big Tent) : 6.14%

(+1 From Last Election)

Others(O / Mixed) : 0.77%

(-0.69pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Norway General Election]2021 FINAL Results & Projection Analysis

FINAL ’21 RESULTS

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s LIVE Projection in Norway, Red Coalition has gained the majority in the next Storting after winning over Blue Coalition.

_COALITION LEVEL RESULTS

-Seat Results

Red Coalition(RK / Center-Left) : 97 Seats

(+17 From Last Election)

Blue Coalition(BK / Center-Right) : 68 Seats

(-20 From Last Election)

Green Coalition(GK / Center-Left) : 3 Seats

(+2 From Last Election)

Others(AND / Mixed) : 1 Seat

(+1 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Results

Red Coalition(RK / Center-Left) : 52.05%

(+6.23pp From Last Election)

Blue Coalition(BK / Center-Right) : 42.37%

(-6.74pp From Last Election)

Green Coalition(GK / Center-Left) : 3.92%

(+0.70pp From Last Election)

Others(AND / Mixed) : 1.66%

(-0.19pp From Last Election)

_PARTY LEVEL RESULTS

-Seat Projection

Labour Party(AP / Center-Left – Red Coalition) : 48 Seats

(-1 From Last Election)

Conservative Party(HØY / Center-Right – Blue Coalition) : 36 Seats

(-9 From Last Election)

Center Party(SP / Center – Red Coalition) : 28 Seats

(+9 From Last Election)

Progress Party(FrP / Right-wing – Blue Coalition) : 21 Seats

(-6 From Last Election)

Socialist Left Party(SV / Left-wing – Red Coalition) : 13 Seats

(+2 From Last Election)

Red Party(RØDT / Far-Left – Red Coalition) : 8 Seats

(+7 From Last Election)

Liberal Party(VEN / Center – Blue Coalition) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Green Party(MDG / Center-Left – Green Coalition) : 3 Seats

(+2 From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Party(KrF / Lean-Right – Blue Coalition) : 3 Seats

(-5 From Last Election)

The Democrats(DiN / Right-wing – Blue Coalition) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Pensioners’ Party(PP / Big Tent – Others) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Christian Party(PDK / Right-wing – Blue Coalition) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Industry & Business Party(INP / Lean-Right – Blue Coalition) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Party Center(PS / Center – Red Coalition) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Capitalist Party(LIB / Center-Right – Blue Coalition) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Others(AND / Mixed – Others) : 1 Seat

(+1 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Results

Labour Party(AP / Center-Left – Red Coalition) : 26.08%

(-1.11pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(HØY / Center-Right – Blue Coalition) : 20.22%

(-4.66pp From Last Election)

Center Party(SP / Center – Red Coalition) : 13.42%

(+3.17pp From Last Election)

Progress Party(FrP / Right-wing – Blue Coalition) : 11.54%

(-3.56pp From Last Election)

Socialist Left Party(SV / Left-wing – Red Coalition) : 7.59%

(+1.61pp From Last Election)

Red Party(RØDT / Far-Left – Red Coalition) : 4.69%

(+2.29pp From Last Election)

Liberal Party(VEN / Center – Blue Coalition) : 4.58%

(+0.24pp From Last Election)

Green Party(MDG / Center-Left – Green Coalition) : 4.89%

(+0.70pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Party(KrF / Lean-Right – Blue Coalition) : 3.77%

(-0.40pp From Last Election)

The Democrats(DiN / Right-wing – Blue Coalition) : 1.14%

(+1.01pp From Last Election)

Pensioners’ Party(PP / Big Tent – Others) : 0.63%

(+0.19pp From Last Election)

Christian Party(PDK / Right-wing – Blue Coalition) : 0.35%

(+0.05pp From Last Election)

Industry & Business Party(INP / Lean-Right – Blue Coalition) : 0.33%

(NEW PARTY)

Party Center(PS / Center – Red Coalition) : 0.26%

(NEW PARTY)

Capitalist Party(LIB / Center-Right – Blue Coalition) : 0.15%

(-0.04pp From Last Election)

Others(AND / Mixed – Others) : 1.33%

(-0.08pp From Last Election)

_PROJECTION ANALYSIS

-Average Error Analysis

Globe Elections UN(FINAL Projection) : 0.55%

—————————————————–

TV2(Exit Poll) : 0.48%

Pollofpolls.no(Poll Of Polls) : 0.65%

NRK(Exit Poll) : 0.69%

Estimite(Estimation) : 0.72%

PolitPro(Trend) : 0.74%

Europe Elects(Average) : 0.77%

Politico(Poll Of Polls) : 0.82%

-Standard Error Analysis

Globe Elections UN(FINAL Projection) : 0.73%

—————————————————–

TV2(Exit Poll) : 0.86%

Pollofpolls.no(Poll Of Polls) : 0.88%

PolitPro(Trend) : 0.99%

Europe Elects(Average) : 1.03%

Politico(Poll Of Polls) : 1.04%

Estimite(Estimation) : 1.08%

NRK(Exit Poll) : 1.08%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Canada

[Canada General Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Canada, we are projecting that it is extremely close between the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau and the Conservatives led by Erin O’ Toole.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Liberal Party(LPC / Lean-Left) : 146 Seats

(+19 From Sep ’21, -11 From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CPC / Center-Right) : 123 Seats

(-23 From Sep ’21, +2 From Last Election)

New Democratic Party(NDP / Center-Left) : 35 Seats

(-5 From Sep ’21, +11 From Last Election)

Quebecers’ Bloc(BQ / Center-Left) : 32 Seats

(+8 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GPC / Left-wing) : 2 Seats

(+1 From Sep ’21, -1 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PPC / Right-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, -1 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Liberal Party(LPC / Lean-Left) : 31.53%

(+0.68pp From Sep ’21, -1.59pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CPC / Center-Right) : 31.06%

(-2.62pp From Sep ’21, -3.28pp From Last Election)

New Democratic Party(NDP / Center-Left) : 19.68%

(-1.15pp From Sep ’21, +3.70pp From Last Election)

Quebecers’ Bloc(BQ / Center-Left) : 6.78%

(+0.38pp From Sep ’21, -0.85pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PPC / Right-wing) : 6.35%

(+2.40pp From Sep ’21, +4.73pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GPC / Left-wing) : 3.45%

(+0.20pp From Sep’ 21, -3.10pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.15%

(+0.11pp From Sep ’21, +0.39pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Russia General Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Russia, United Russia will be retaining majority in the next State Duma, but a supermajority is uncertain.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Russia(UR / Right-wing Big Tent) : 300 Seats

(-43 From Last Election)

Communist Party(CPRF / Left-wing) : 69 Seats

(+27 From Last Election)

Liberal Democratic Party(LDPR / Far-Right) : 41 Seats

(+2 From Last Election)

A Just Russia+For Truth(AJR+FT / Center-Left) : 27 Seats

(+4 From Last Election)

Independent(IND / Mixed) : 5 Seats

(+4 From Last Election)

Yabloko(YAB / Lean-Left) : 2 Seats

(+2 From Last Election)

Rodina(ROD / Far-Right) : 2 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Russian Party Of Pensioners For Social Justice(RPPSJ / Center) : 1 Seat

(+1 From Last Election)

The Communists(CPCR / Far-Left) : 1 Seat

(+1 From Last Election)

Party Of Growth(ROST / Center-Right) : 1 Seat

(+4 From Last Election)

Civic Platform(CP / Center-Right) : 1 Seat

(+1 From Last Election)

New People(NP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

The Greens(REPTG / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Russian Party Of Freedom & Justice(RPFJ / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Green Alternative(GA / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Russia(UR / Right-wing Big Tent) : 40.34%

(-14.89pp From Last Election)

Communist Party(CPRF / Left-wing) : 22.66%

(+9.07pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democratic Party(LDPR / Far-Right) : 12.35%

(-1.04pp From Last Election)

A Just Russia+For Truth(AJR+FT / Center-Left) : 10.82%

(+3.88pp From Last Election)

Russian Party Of Pensioners For Social Justice(RPPSJ / Center) : 3.14%

(+1.38pp From Last Election)

New People(NP / Lean-Right) : 2.67%

(NEW PARTY)

The Communists(CPCR / Far-Left) : 1.93%

(-0.38pp From Last Election)

Yabloko(YAB / Lean-Left) : 1.59%

(-0.45pp From Last Election)

Rodina(ROD / Far-Right) : 1.21%

(-0.33pp From Last Election)

The Greens(REPTG / Center-Left) : 1.07%

(+0.30pp From Last Election)

Russian Party Of Freedom & Justice(RPFJ / Center-Left) : 0.80%

(NEW PARTY)

Party Of Growth(ROST / Center-Right) : 0.75%

(-0.57pp From Last Election)

Green Alternative(GA / Left-wing) : 0.41%

(NEW PARTY)

Civic Platform(CP / Center-Right) : 0.26%

(+0.04pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Canada

[Canada General Election]2021 September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

SEPTEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in Canada, we are projecting that it is too close to call between the Conservatives led by Erin O’ Toole and the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CPC / Center-Right) : 146 Seats

(+25 From Last Election)

Liberal Party(LPC / Lean-Left) : 127 Seats

(-30 From Last Election)

New Democratic Party(NDP / Center-Left) : 40 Seats

(+16 From Last Election)

Quebecers’ Bloc(BQ / Center-Left) : 24 Seats

(-8 From Last Election)

Green Party(GPC / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(-2 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PPC / Right-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CPC / Center-Right) : 33.68%

(-0.66pp From Last Election)

Liberal Party(LPC / Lean-Left) : 30.85%

(-2.27pp From Last Election)

New Democratic Party(NDP / Center-Left) : 20.83%

(+4.85pp From Last Election)

Quebecers’ Bloc(BQ / Center-Left) : 6.40%

(-1.23pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PPC / Right-wing) : 3.95%

(+2.33pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GPC / Left-wing) : 3.25%

(-3.30pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.04%

(+0.28pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

United States

[United States California Governor Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in United States California, we are calling that Gavin Newsom will not be recalled. But Larry Elder is the projected winner on the replace election.

_RECALL ELECTION PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

No – Remain(DP / Center-Left) : 57.99%

(-3.96pp From Last Election)

Yes – Recall(GOP / Center-Right) : 42.01%

(+3.96pp From Last Election)

_REPLACE ELECTION PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Larry Elder(GOP / Right-wing) : 44.09%

Kevin Paffrath(DP / Center-Left) : 10.41%

Kevin Faulconer(GOP / Lean-Right) : 7.01%

John Cox(GOP / Center-Right) : 7.01%

Kevin Kiley(GOP / Center-Right) : 4.42%

Jackie McGowan(DP / Left-wing) : 4.33%

Brandon Ross(DP / Lean-Left) : 3.56%

John Drake(DP / Left-wing) : 2.89%

Holly Baade(DP / Center-Left) : 1.69%

Daniel Watts(DP / Center-Left) : 1.67%

Caitlyn Jenner(GOP / Lean-Right) : 1.54%

Joel Ventresca(DP / Center-Left) : 1.12%

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 10.70%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Norway General Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Norway, Red Coalition will be gaining the majority in the next Storting very likely as they are ahead of Blue Coalition.

_COALITION LEVEL PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Red Coalition(RK / Center-Left) : 94 Seats

(+14 From Last Election)

Blue Coalition(BK / Center-Right) : 68 Seats

(-20 From Last Election)

Green Coalition(GK / Center-Left) : 7 Seats

(+6 From Last Election)

Others(AND / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Red Coalition(RK / Center-Left) : 51.52%

(+5.70pp From Last Election)

Blue Coalition(BK / Center-Right) : 41.69%

(-7.42pp From Last Election)

Green Coalition(GK / Center-Left) : 4.89%

(+1.67pp From Last Election)

Others(AND / Mixed) : 1.90%

(+0.05pp From Last Election)

_PARTY LEVEL PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Labour Party(AP / Center-Left – Red Coalition) : 43 Seats

(-6 From Last Election)

Conservative Party(HØY / Center-Right – Blue Coalition) : 37 Seats

(-8 From Last Election)

Center Party(SP / Center – Red Coalition) : 23 Seats

(+4 From Last Election)

Progress Party(FrP / Right-wing – Blue Coalition) : 21 Seats

(-6 From Last Election)

Socialist Left Party(SV / Left-wing – Red Coalition) : 19 Seats

(+8 From Last Election)

Red Party(RØDT / Far-Left – Red Coalition) : 9 Seats

(+8 From Last Election)

Green Party(MDG / Center-Left – Green Coalition) : 7 Seats

(+6 From Last Election)

Liberal Party(VEN / Center – Blue Coalition) : 5 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Party(KrF / Lean-Right – Blue Coalition) : 5 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

The Democrats(DiN / Right-wing – Blue Coalition) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Christian Party(PDK / Right-wing – Blue Coalition) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Industry & Business Party(INP / Lean-Right – Blue Coalition) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Pensioners’ Party(PP / Big Tent – Others) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Party Center(PS / Center – Red Coalition) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Capitalist Party(LIB / Center-Right – Blue Coalition) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Others(AND / Mixed – Others) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Labour Party(AP / Center-Left – Red Coalition) : 24.54%

(-2.65pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(HØY / Center-Right – Blue Coalition) : 19.55%

(-5.33pp From Last Election)

Center Party(SP / Center – Red Coalition) : 12.49%

(+2.24pp From Last Election)

Progress Party(FrP / Right-wing – Blue Coalition) : 11.90%

(-3.20pp From Last Election)

Socialist Left Party(SV / Left-wing – Red Coalition) : 9.04%

(+3.06pp From Last Election)

Red Party(RØDT / Far-Left – Red Coalition) : 5.34%

(+2.94pp From Last Election)

Green Party(MDG / Center-Left – Green Coalition) : 4.89%

(+1.67pp From Last Election)

Liberal Party(VEN / Center – Blue Coalition) : 4.73%

(+0.39pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Party(KrF / Lean-Right – Blue Coalition) : 4.12%

(-0.05pp From Last Election)

The Democrats(DiN / Right-wing – Blue Coalition) : 0.97%

(+0.84pp From Last Election)

Christian Party(PDK / Right-wing – Blue Coalition) : 0.19%

(-0.11pp From Last Election)

Industry & Business Party(INP / Lean-Right – Blue Coalition) : 0.14%

(NEW PARTY)

Pensioners’ Party(PP / Big Tent – Others) : 0.14%

(-0.30pp From Last Election)

Party Center(PS / Center – Red Coalition) : 0.11%

(NEW PARTY)

Capitalist Party(LIB / Center-Right – Blue Coalition) : 0.09%

(-0.10pp From Last Election)

Others(AND / Mixed – Others) : 1.76%

(+0.35pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

SEPTEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. With Donald Tusk’s return, Civic Coalition has managed to make a big bounce and is now up to around the last election. Poland 2050 is almost down to their starting point. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 168 Seats

(+4 From Aug ’21, -67 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 131 Seats

(+43 From Aug ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 77 Seats

(-30 From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 46 Seats

(-7 From Aug ’21, +35 From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 36 Seats

(-5 From Aug ’21, -13 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 2 Seats

(+1 From Aug ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(NEW ENTRY, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 36.00%

(+2.45pp From Aug ’21, -7.59pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 27.27%

(-0.47pp From Aug ’21, -0.06pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 13.82%

(-2.57pp From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 10.55%

(+1.47pp From Aug ’21, +3.74pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 8.66%

(+1.52pp From Aug ’21, -3.91pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 2.78%

(-0.71pp From Aug ’21, -5.78pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.46%

(-0.22pp From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.22%

(NEW ENTRY, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.24%

(-1.69pp From Aug ’21, -2.52pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 38.76%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 26.67%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 13.51%

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 8.86%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.51%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 2.85%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.47%

reement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.24%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.13%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

SEPTEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in United Kingdom, we are projecting that the Conservatives will be the largrest party in the next parliament with a majority of 42 seats most likely. Also, the Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 352 seats, being ahead of Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+SDLP+GRN+AP)‘s 292 by 60.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 343 Seats

(+11 From Aug ’21, -22 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 221 Seats

(-11 From Aug ’21, +18 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 53 Seats

(+1 From Aug ’21, +5 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 9 Seats

(+0 From Aug ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 7 Seats

(-1 From Aug ’21, -1 From Last Election)

We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 6 Seats

(-1 From Aug ’21, -1 From Last Election)

Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Aug ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 2 Seats

(+2 From Aug ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 40.71%

(+0.97pp From Aug ’21, -2.92pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 32.93%

(-1.94pp From Aug ’21, +0.77pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8.57%

(+0.76pp From Aug ’21, -3.26pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 6.12%

(+0.29pp From Aug ’21, +3.44pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.22%

(+0.30pp From Aug ’21, +0.34pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.57%

(+0.91pp From Aug ’21, +0.56pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.77%

(-0.08pp From Aug ’21, +0.29pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.39%

(-0.13pp From Aug ’21, +0.33pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.72%

(-1.08pp From Aug ’21, +0.10pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 40.66%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 33.07%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 9.43%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 6.15%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.23%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 3.43%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 077%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.39%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.87%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard