Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s Jul;y Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is likely to be taken by Szymon Hołownia‘s Poland 2050. Mostly due to their rise, Civic Coalition is now below 100 seats. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is now just below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 164 Seats

(-17 From Jun ’21, -71 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 107 Seats

(-6 From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 88 Seats

(+12 From Jun ’21, -46 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 53 Seats

(+9 From Jun ’21, +42 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 41 Seats

(-1 From Jun ’21, -8 From Last Election)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 32.53%

(-2.73pp From Jun ’21, -11.06pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 22.24%

(-2.48pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 19.35%

(+3.39pp From Jun ’21, -7.98pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.12%

(+2.03pp From Jun ’21, +4.34pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 8.24%

(-1.03pp From Jun ’21, -4.33pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.81%

(+0.50pp From Jun ’21, -3.75pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.73%

(-0.09pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.95%

(+0.41pp From Jun ’21, -0.15pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.27%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.91%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 19.06%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.06%

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 8.49%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.96%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.76%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.49%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives will likely retain majority in the next parliament with a majority of 48 seats. Also, the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 357 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+SDLP+GRN+AP)‘s 286 by 71.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 349 Seats

(-11 From May ’21, -19 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 213 Seats

(+8 From May ’21, +10 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 55 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, +7 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 5 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.27%

(-1.66pp From Jun ’21, -2.36pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 32.31%

(-0.06pp From Jun ’21, +0.15pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8.19%

(+0.72pp From Jun ’21, -3.64pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.47%

(-0.24pp From Jun ’21, +2.79pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.65%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, +0.77pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.55%

(+0.22pp From Jun ’21, -0.46pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.86%

(+0.14pp From Jun ’21, +0.38pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.11%

(-0.19pp From Jun ’21, +0.05pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 5.59%

(+0.78pp From Jun ’21, +1.97pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.76%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 32.87%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 9.14%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.57%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.73%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.11%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.87%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.11%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.84%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in Germany, we are projecting that Christian Democratic/Social Union is now back as largest group on the next Bundestag. Oppositely, Greens are down to the figures they obtained in January of this year. Social Democrats follows on 3rd, Germany Alternative is slightly down, Free Democrats are completely steady, and The Left is down.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 221 Seats

(+37 From Jun ’21, -37 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 148 Seats

(-19 From Jun ’21, +81 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 88 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, -65 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 77 Seats

(-5 From Jun ’21, -17 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 72 Seats

(-10 From Jun ’21, -8 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 44 Seats

(+5 From Jun ’21, -25 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 26.79%

(+13.57pp From Jun ’21, -5.96pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 22.99%

(-3.09pp From Jun ’21, +14.05pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.69%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, -6.82pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.75%

(-0.19pp From Jun ’21, -0.89pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.25%

(-1.64pp From Jun ’21, +0.50pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.55%

(+0.53pp From Jun ’21, -2.69pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.98%

(+0.53pp From Jun ’21, +1.98pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 31.67%

(+3.88pp From Jun ’21, -5.59pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 21.54%

(-3.20pp From Jun ’21, +13.53pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 17.19%

(+0.16pp From Jun ’21, -7.45pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.13%

(-0.33pp From Jun ’21, -0.33pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.66%

(-1.23pp From Jun ’21, +0.66pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.33%

(+0.43pp From Jun ’21, -2.22pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.48%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, +1.40pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 28.95% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 19.77% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.16% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.39%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.51%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.15%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 7.07%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Italy

[Italy General Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s July Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will gain the majority of both chambers likely, after being ahead of Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement by just under 10%p. But as the situation narrowed down once again, it is now characterized as Key Race.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 53.02%

(+0.89pp From Jun ’21, +16.02pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 43.83%

(+0.47pp From Jun ’21, -14.15pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.15%

(-1.36pp From Jun ’21, -1.87pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 53.02%

(+0.89pp From Jun ’21, +16.02pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 22.21%

(+0.02pp From Jun ’21, +0.31pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.51%

(+0.16pp From Jun ’21, -14.17pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.11%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, -0.29pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.15%

(-1.36pp From Jun ’21, -1.87pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 23.76%

(-0.59pp From Jun ’21, +6.41pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 23.16%

(+1.31pp From Jun ’21, +18.81pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.51%

(+0.16pp From Jun ’21, -14.17pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 15.56%

(+0.41pp From Jun ’21, -3.20pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 5.54%

(-0.31pp From Jun ’21, -846pp From Last Election)

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 3.96%

(-0.12pp From Jun ’21, +1.40pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.11%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, -0.29pp From Last Election)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.74%

(-0.04pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 0.95%

(-0.23pp From Jun ’21, +0.37pp From Last Election)

Courage Italy(CI / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.56%

(+0.48pp From Jun ’21, -0.74pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.15%

(-1.36pp From Jun ’21, -1.87pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 49.29%

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 47.40%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.31%

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 49.29%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 27.34%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 16.44%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.62%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.31%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 21.23%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 20.26%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 19.76%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.44%

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.09%

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.16%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 3.62%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.21%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.21%

Courage Italy(CI / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.71%

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 3.31%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s July Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that it is too close to call between Yoon Seok-yeol & Lee Jae-myung for the next presidency.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-yeol(IND PPP / Center-Right) : 48.19%

(-4.25pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 45.20%

(-2.06pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 6.61%

(+6.31pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCEWIDE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

SU​(Seoul) – ​Yoon +0.19%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

GY​(Gyeonggi) – ​Lee +0.24%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

IN​(Incheon) – ​Yoon +0.96%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

DJ​(Daejeon) – ​Lee +1.51%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

​UL​(Ulsan) – ​Yoon +4.33%p <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

CN​(Chungnam) – ​Yoon +6.19%p

CB(Chungbuk) – ​Yoon +6.33%p

JJ(Jeju) – ​Lee +9.49%p

-Other Races

BU​(Busan) – ​Yoon +10.17%p

GN​(Gyeongnam) – ​Yoon +11.63%p

GW​(Gangwon) – ​Yoon +14.82%p

SJ(Sejong) – ​Lee +15.69%p

JN(Jeonnam) – ​Lee +26.14%p

GJ(Gwangju) – ​Lee +31.08%p

JB(Jeonbuk) – ​Lee +39.33%p

GB(Gyeongbuk) – ​Yoon +39.69%p

DG​(Daegu) – ​Yoon +42.74%p

_PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 41.23%

(+2.21pp From Jun ’21, -14.97pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 58.77%

(-2.21pp From Jun ’21, +14.97pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s July Projection in South Korea, People Power will have the supermajority and the Democrats will only manage to take much fewer than 100 seats. Continuing on, People Party is on the course to increase quite many seats. Justice Party is up on the seat level but not on the vote share level and Open Democrats will also gain seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From May ’21)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 224 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +121 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 54 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, -127 From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +7 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 7 Seats

(-1 From Jun ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 47.74%

(+1.31pp From Jun ’21, +13.90pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 26.83%

(+0.54pp From Jun ’21, -8.36pp From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 9.08%

(+0.51pp From Jun ’21, +2.28pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 6.96%

(-1.20pp From Jun ’21, -2.71pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.67%

(+0.57pp From Jun ’21, +0.23pp From Last Election)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.05%

(-0.36pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.04%

(-0.25pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.63%

(-0.10pp From Jun ’21, -7.28pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 57.56%

(+0.57pp From Jun ’21, +16.10pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 39.50%

(+0.09pp From Jun ’21, -10.41pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.21%

(-0.24pp From Jun ’21, -0.50pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.73%

(-0.42pp From Jun ’21, -5.09pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 41.23%

(+2.21pp From Jun ’21, -14.97pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 58.77%

(-2.21pp From Jun ’21, +14.97pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROEJCTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 41.64%

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 38.23%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 6.75%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.23%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 4.48%

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.07%

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.06%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.54%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 43.25%

Disapproval : 56.75% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Bulgaria General Election]2021(J) FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21(J) PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Bulgaria, we are projecting that There Is Such A People is likely to be the largest group in the next National Assembly after surpassing Coat Of Arms within a key race margin, which is less than 10%p. Also, the 3rd place is closely fought between Democratic Bulgaria and Socialists. And the following parties – Rights & Freedom, Stand Up!, Revival – are expected to be entering parliament, and Bulgarian Patriots will fail to do that.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

There Is Such A People(ITN / Big Tent) : 72 Seats

(+21 From Last Election)

Coats Of Arms(GERB / Center-Right) : 49 Seats

(-26pp From Last Election)

Democratic Bulgaria(DB / Lean-Right) : 37 Seats

(+10 From Last Election)

BSP For Bulgaria(BSPzB / Left-wing) : 35 Seats

(-8 From Last Election)

Movement For Rights & Freedoms(DPS / Center) : 29 Seats

(-1 From Last Election)

Stand Up! Get Out!(ISMV / Big Tent) : 12 Seats

(-2 From Last Election)

Revival(REV / Right-wing) : 6 Seats

(+6 From Last Election)

Bulgarian Patriots(BP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Bulgarian Summer(BL / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Left Union For Clean & Holy Republic(LUCHR / Left-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

There Is Such A People(ITN / Big Tent) : 25.68%

(+8.02pp From Last Election)

Coats Of Arms(GERB / Center-Right) : 17.31%

(-8.87pp From Last Election)

Democratic Bulgaria(DB / Lean-Right) : 14.20%

(+4.75pp From Last Election)

BSP For Bulgaria(BSPzB / Left-wing) : 11.08%

(-4.39pp From Last Election)

Movement For Rights & Freedoms(DPS / Center) : 9.19%

(-1.32pp From Last Election)

Stand Up! Get Out!(ISMV / Big Tent) : 4.91%

(+0.19pp From Last Election)

Revival(REV / Right-wing) : 4.50%

(+2.05pp From Last Election)

Bulgarian Patriots(BP / Far-Right) : 2.84%

(-3.17pp From Last Election)

Bulgarian Summer(BL / Big Tent) : 1.40%

(-1.55pp From Last Election)

Left Union For Clean & Holy Republic(LUCHR / Left-wing Big Tent) : 0.55%

(+0.02pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 8.34%

(+4.37pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection (***Corrected From The Old Version That Had Little Bit Inaccurate Numbers.)

Coats Of Arms(GERB / Center-Right) : 21.29%

There Is Such A People(ITN / Big Tent) : 21.21%

BSP For Bulgaria(BSPzB / Left-wing) : 16.23%

Democratic Bulgaria(DB / Lean-Right) : 11.73%

Movement For Rights & Freedoms(DPS / Center) : 11.12%

Stand Up! Get Out!(ISMV / Big Tent) : 5.55%

Bulgarian Patriots(BP / Far-Right) : 4.16%

Revival(REV / Right-wing) : 2.47%

Bulgarian Summer(BL / Big Tent) : 1.05%

Left Union For Clean & Holy Republic(LUCHR / Left-wing Big Tent) : 0.61%

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 4.58%

_FULL RESULTS/DETAILS

_Global Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 June Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JUNE ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is likely to be taken by Poland 2050, a new party led by Szymon Hołownia. Due to Poland 2050’s rise, Civic Coalition is now far below 100 seats. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is currently below the 5% threshold and therefore won’t be able to obtain any seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 181 Seats

(+16 From May ’21, -54 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 113 Seats

(+10 From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 76 Seats

(-12 From May ’21, -58 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 44 Seats

(-5 From May ’21, +33 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 42 Seats

(-13 From May ’21, -7 From Last Election)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+1 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.26%

(+2.64pp From May ’21, -8.33pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 24.72%

(+3.07pp From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 15.96%

(-2.96pp From May ’21, -11.37pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 9.27%

(-1.34pp From May ’21, -3.30pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.12%

(-2.22pp From May ’21, +2.31pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.31%

(+0.48pp From May ’21, -4.25pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.82%

(+0.20pp From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.54%

(+0.13pp From May ’21, -0.56pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 37.91%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 24.15%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 15.59%

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 9.47%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 7.35%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.41%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.84%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.28%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 June Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JUNE ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in Germany, we are projecting that it is too close to call between the Union parties & the Greens. On the other hand, there is also a heat for the 3rd place as Social Democrats fall, Free Democrats gain, Alternative for Germany goes down.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 184 Seats

(+6 From May ’21, -74 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 167 Seats

(-19 From May ’21, +100 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 87 Seats

(-3 From May ’21, -66 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 82 Seats

(+10 From May ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 82 Seats

(+1 From May ’21, -12 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 39 Seats

(-6 From May ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 26.08%

(-3.09pp From May ’21, +17.14pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 23.22%

(+1.93pp From May ’21, -9.53pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.40%

(+0.28pp From May ’21, -7.11pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 12.89%

(+1.63pp From May ’21, +2.14pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.94%

(-0.24pp From May ’21, -0.70pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.02%

(-0.80pp From May ’21, -3.22pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.45%

(+0.29pp From May ’21, +1.45pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 27.79%

(+2.30pp From May ’21, -9.47pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 24.74%

(-2.94pp From May ’21, +16.73pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 17.03%

(+0.34pp From May ’21, -7.61pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.46%

(-0.23pp From May ’21, +0.00pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 8.89%

(+1.12pp From May ’21, +1.89pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 5.90%

(-0.78pp From May ’21, -2.65pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.19%

(+0.19pp From May ’21, +1.11pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 25.28% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 22.61% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.96% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 13.16%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.77%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.63%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.59%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 June Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JUNE ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives will retain majority in the next parliament with a big majority of 70 seats. Also, the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 368 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+SDLP+GRN+AP)‘s 274 by 94.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 360 Seats

(+18 From May ’21, -8 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 205 Seats

(-21 From May ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 54 Seats

(+1 From May ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 8 Seats

(+2 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7 Seats

(-1 From May ’21, -4 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 4 Seats

(-1 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 1 Seat

(-1 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(-1 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.93%

(+0.77pp From May ’21, -0.70pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 32.37%

(-2.78pp From May ’21, +0.21pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.47%

(+0.61pp From May ’21, -4.36pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.71%

(+0.49pp From May ’21, +3.03pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.36%

(+0.14pp From May ’21, +0.48pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.33%

(-0.02pp From Apr ’21, -0.68pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.72%

(-0.19pp From May ’21, +0.24pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.30%

(-0.10pp From May ’21, +0.24pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.81%

(+1.08pp From May ’21, +1.19pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 43.23%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 32.78%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8.30%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.78%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.41%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.04%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.73%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.30%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.43%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard