Italy

[Italy General Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s July Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will gain the majority of both chambers likely, after being ahead of Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement by just under 10%p. But as the situation narrowed down once again, it is now characterized as Key Race.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 53.02%

(+0.89pp From Jun ’21, +16.02pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 43.83%

(+0.47pp From Jun ’21, -14.15pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.15%

(-1.36pp From Jun ’21, -1.87pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 53.02%

(+0.89pp From Jun ’21, +16.02pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 22.21%

(+0.02pp From Jun ’21, +0.31pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.51%

(+0.16pp From Jun ’21, -14.17pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.11%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, -0.29pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.15%

(-1.36pp From Jun ’21, -1.87pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 23.76%

(-0.59pp From Jun ’21, +6.41pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 23.16%

(+1.31pp From Jun ’21, +18.81pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.51%

(+0.16pp From Jun ’21, -14.17pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 15.56%

(+0.41pp From Jun ’21, -3.20pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 5.54%

(-0.31pp From Jun ’21, -846pp From Last Election)

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 3.96%

(-0.12pp From Jun ’21, +1.40pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.11%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, -0.29pp From Last Election)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.74%

(-0.04pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 0.95%

(-0.23pp From Jun ’21, +0.37pp From Last Election)

Courage Italy(CI / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.56%

(+0.48pp From Jun ’21, -0.74pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.15%

(-1.36pp From Jun ’21, -1.87pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 49.29%

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 47.40%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.31%

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 49.29%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 27.34%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 16.44%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.62%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.31%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 21.23%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 20.26%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 19.76%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.44%

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.09%

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.16%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 3.62%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.21%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.21%

Courage Italy(CI / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.71%

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 3.31%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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