JULY ’21 PROJECTION
_Globe Elections UN Video
_HEADLINE
According to Globe Elections UN’s July Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will gain the majority of both chambers likely, after being ahead of Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement by just under 10%p. But as the situation narrowed down once again, it is now characterized as Key Race.
_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition
Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 53.02%
(+0.89pp From Jun ’21, +16.02pp From Last Election)
Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 43.83%
(+0.47pp From Jun ’21, -14.15pp From Last Election)
Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.15%
(-1.36pp From Jun ’21, -1.87pp From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition
Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 53.02%
(+0.89pp From Jun ’21, +16.02pp From Last Election)
Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 22.21%
(+0.02pp From Jun ’21, +0.31pp From Last Election)
Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.51%
(+0.16pp From Jun ’21, -14.17pp From Last Election)
Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.11%
(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, -0.29pp From Last Election)
Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.15%
(-1.36pp From Jun ’21, -1.87pp From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection By Party
League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 23.76%
(-0.59pp From Jun ’21, +6.41pp From Last Election)
Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 23.16%
(+1.31pp From Jun ’21, +18.81pp From Last Election)
Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.51%
(+0.16pp From Jun ’21, -14.17pp From Last Election)
Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 15.56%
(+0.41pp From Jun ’21, -3.20pp From Last Election)
Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 5.54%
(-0.31pp From Jun ’21, -846pp From Last Election)
Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 3.96%
(-0.12pp From Jun ’21, +1.40pp From Last Election)
Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.11%
(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, -0.29pp From Last Election)
Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.74%
(-0.04pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)
Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 0.95%
(-0.23pp From Jun ’21, +0.37pp From Last Election)
Courage Italy(CI / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.56%
(+0.48pp From Jun ’21, -0.74pp From Last Election)
Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.15%
(-1.36pp From Jun ’21, -1.87pp From Last Election)
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition
Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 49.29%
Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 47.40%
Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.31%
-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition
Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 49.29%
Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 27.34%
Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 16.44%
Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.62%
Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.31%
-Vote Share Projection By Party
League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 21.23%
Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 20.26%
Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 19.76%
Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.44%
Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.09%
Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.16%
Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 3.62%
Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.21%
Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.21%
Courage Italy(CI / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.71%
Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 3.31%
