Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in Germany, we are projecting that Christian Democratic/Social Union is now back as largest group on the next Bundestag. Oppositely, Greens are down to the figures they obtained in January of this year. Social Democrats follows on 3rd, Germany Alternative is slightly down, Free Democrats are completely steady, and The Left is down.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 221 Seats

(+37 From Jun ’21, -37 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 148 Seats

(-19 From Jun ’21, +81 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 88 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, -65 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 77 Seats

(-5 From Jun ’21, -17 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 72 Seats

(-10 From Jun ’21, -8 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 44 Seats

(+5 From Jun ’21, -25 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 26.79%

(+13.57pp From Jun ’21, -5.96pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 22.99%

(-3.09pp From Jun ’21, +14.05pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.69%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, -6.82pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.75%

(-0.19pp From Jun ’21, -0.89pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.25%

(-1.64pp From Jun ’21, +0.50pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.55%

(+0.53pp From Jun ’21, -2.69pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.98%

(+0.53pp From Jun ’21, +1.98pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 31.67%

(+3.88pp From Jun ’21, -5.59pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 21.54%

(-3.20pp From Jun ’21, +13.53pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 17.19%

(+0.16pp From Jun ’21, -7.45pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.13%

(-0.33pp From Jun ’21, -0.33pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.66%

(-1.23pp From Jun ’21, +0.66pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.33%

(+0.43pp From Jun ’21, -2.22pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.48%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, +1.40pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 28.95% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 19.77% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.16% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.39%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.51%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.15%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 7.07%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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