FINAL ’22 R1 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in Brazil, we are projecting it is now Too Close To Call between former president Lula da Silva and incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro, actually for the first time in the entire campaigning season.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 46.09%

(-1.43pp From 10/1 ’22, +14.34pp From Last Election)

Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 41.86%

(+1.87pp From 10/1 ’22, -5.43pp From Last Election)

Ciro Gomes(PDT / Center-Left) : 4.85%

(-0.94pp From 10/1 ’22, -6.73pp From Last Election)

Simone Tebet(MDB / Center) : 4.65%

(-0.07pp From 10/1 ’22, -2.25pp From Last Election)

Luiz D’Avila(NOVO / Center-Right) : 1.04%

(+0.50pp From 10/1 ’22, -1.46pp From Last Election)

Soraya Thronicke(UNIÃO / Center-Right) : 0.95%

(-0.18pp From 10/1 ’22, NEW PARTY)

Padre Kelmon(PTB / Far-Right) : 0.30%

(+0.25pp From 10/1 ’22, NEW PARTY)

José Eymael(DC / Right-wing) : 0.15%

(+0.11pp From 10/1 ’22, +0.11pp From Last Election)

Leo Péricles(UP / Far-Left) : 0.06%

(+0.02pp From 10/1 ’22, NEW PARTY)

Vera Lúcia(PSTU / Left-wing) : 0.04%

(-0.02pp From 10/1 ’22, -0.01pp From Last Election)

Sofia Manzano(PCB / Far-Left) : 0.01%

(-0.01pp From 10/1 ’22, NEW PARTY)

_STATE PROJECTIONS (POLL+SWING)

-Key Races

RS(Rio Grande do Sul) – BOLSONARO +0.50pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

SP(São Paulo) – BOLSONARO +3.82pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

RJ(Rio de Janeiro) – BOLSONARO +6.73pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

ES(Espírito Santo) – BOLSONARO +11.05pp (POLL BASE (R) – BOLSONARO +3.92pp)

MG(Minas Gerais) – LULA +13.98pp (SWING BASE – BOLSONARO +0.41pp)

-Other Races – UPDATE SOON

TO(Tocantins) – LULA +10.76pp

MS(Mato Grosso do Sul) – BOLSONARO +10.51pp

AM(Amazonas) – LULA +11.40pp

AP(Amapá) – LULA +11.81pp

PR(Paraná) – BOLSONARO +13.66pp

GO(Goiás) – BOLSONARO +14.13pp

DF(Distrito Federal) – BOLSONARO +15.58pp

MT(Mato Grosso) – BOLSONARO +16.81pp

EX(Exterior) – BOLSONARO +19.64pp

PA(Pará) – LULA +21.60pp

AL(Alagoas) – LULA +23.34pp

RO(Rondônia) – BOLSONARO +28.29pp

AC(Acre) – BOLSONARO +29.96pp

SC(Santa Catarina) – BOLSONARO +30.11pp

PB(Paraíba) – LULA +31.75pp

RR(Roraima) – BOLSONARO +32.14pp

PE(Pernambuco) – LULA +32.69pp

RN(Rio Grande do Norte) – LULA +33.18pp

SE(Sergipe) – LULA +38.03pp

CE(Ceará) – LULA +46.27pp

BA(Bahia) – LULA +46.76pp

MA(Maranhão) – LULA +46.83pp

PI(Piauí) – LULA +56.53pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 Brazil Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 20 polling data(total 120,155 unweighted / 116,630 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 9/24 and 10/1 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.