_HEADLINE
According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Germany, we are projecting that the Union will be remaining as the largest group. In the other hand, the Greens are expected to make a push to second while the Social Democrats slipped to their lowest point in a federal election. Alternative for Germany, Free Democrats, The Left is down slightly from the last election.
_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION
-Seat Projection (*Only Including Leveling Seats, No Overhang Seats Included.)
Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 207 Seats
(-1 From Jan ’21, -39 From Last Election)
Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 156 Seats
(+25 From Jan ’21, +89 From Last Election)
Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 85 Seats
(-6 From Jan ’21, -68 From Last Election)
Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 66 Seats
(-9 From Jan ’21, -28 From Last Election)
The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 45 Seats
(-3 From Jan ’21, -24 From Last Election)
Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 43 Seats
(-7 From Jan ’21, -37 From Last Election)
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats
(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)
-Proportional Vote Share Projection
Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 32.46%
(-0.02pp From Jan ’21, -0.47pp From Last Election)
Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 24.58%
(+4.08pp From Jan ’21, +15.64pp From Last Election)
Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.40%
(-0.73pp From Jan ’21, -7.11pp From Last Election)
Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.10%
(-0.92pp From Jan ’21, -2.54pp From Last Election)
Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 6.79%
(-0.98pp From Jan ’21, -3.96pp From Last Election)
The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.62%
(-0.74pp From Jan ’21, -2.62pp From Last Election)
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.05%
(-0.69pp From Jan ’21, +1.05pp From Last Election)
-Constituency Vote Share Projection
Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 37.36%
(-0.10pp From Jan ’21, +0.10pp From Last Election)
Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 22.42%
(+3.69pp From Jan ’21, +14.41pp From Last Election)
Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 16.38%
(-0.92pp From Jan ’21, -8.26pp From Last Election)
Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.32%
(-0.87pp From Jan ’21, -2.14pp From Last Election)
The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.24%
(-0.71pp From Jan ’21, -2.31pp From Last Election)
Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 4.50%
(-0.66pp From Jan ’21, -2.50pp From Last Election)
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.78%
(-0.43pp From Jan ’21, +0.70pp From Last Election)
-POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Proportional Vote Share Projection
Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 36.09%
Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 18.50%
Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.27%
Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.31%
The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.44%
Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.08%
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.31%
_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XJ1cHWk1xFbkmtth6h0pTGnEw3B0PLMPn9sICbg7N3g/
_Globe Elections UN Video
_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard
: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/
Global Elections History Society Center (GEHSC.en) 