Israel

[Israel General Election]2021 February Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Israel, Opposition Coalition will have the absolute majority of the next Knesset over Pro-Netanyahu Coalition. Also, the unity coalition partner Blue & White will have no seats after failing to pass 3.25% threshold. This means that the current prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be ousted pretty likely. However, there would be still a long road to a new PM due to the fact that opposition parties did not decide to support a unified candidate.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 74 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +39 From Last Election)

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 46 Seats

(+4 From Jan ’21, -6 From Last Election)

Blue & White(B&W / Center) : 0 Seats

(-4 From Jan ’21, -33 From Last Election)

-Seat Projection By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 31 Seats

(+4 From Jan ’21, -5 From Last Election)

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 18 Seats

(+5 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

New Hope(NH / Right-wing, Opposition) : 14 Seats

(-4 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 12 Seats

(-1 From Jan ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 11 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +5 From Last Election)

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, -1 From Last Election)

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Center-Right, Opposition) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Blue & White) : 0 Seats

(-4 From Jan ’21, -33 From Last Election)

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Opposition) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed, Opposition) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 61.04%

(-0.07pp From Jan ’21, +30.76pp From Last Election)

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 35.72%

(+0.12pp From Jan ’21, -7.41pp From Last Election)

Blue & White(B&W / Center) : 3.24%

(-0.05pp From Jan ’21, -23.35pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 23.88%

(+1.04pp From Jan ’21, -5.58pp From Last Election)

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 13.58%

(+2.50pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

New Hope(NH / Right-wing, Opposition) : 11.06%

(-3.70pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 9.13%

(-1.35pp From Jan ’21, -3.54pp From Last Election)

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 8.54%

(-1.04pp From Jan ’21, +3.30pp From Last Election)

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 6.07%

(-0.60pp From Jan ’21, -1.62pp From Last Election)

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 5.77%

(-0.32pp From Jan ’21, -0.21pp From Last Election)

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Center-Right, Opposition) : 5.32%

(-0.12pp From Jan ’21, -0.28pp From Last Election)

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 5.28%

(-0.39pp From Jan ’21, -0.60pp From Last Election)

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 3.66%

(-0.12pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Blue & White) : 3.24%

(-0.05pp From Jan ’21, -23.35pp From Last Election)

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 2.01%

(+1.76pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Opposition) : 1.83%

(+1.76pp From Jan ’21, +1.41pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed, Opposition) : 0.63%

(+0.63pp From Jan ’21, +0.25pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 61.24%

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 35.50%

Blue & White(B&W / Center) : 3.26%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 23.70%

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 13.68%

New Hope(NH / Right-wing, Opposition) : 10.98%

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 9.60%

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 7.96%

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 5.94%

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 5.86%

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Center-Right, Opposition) : 5.20%

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 5.04%

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 4.05%

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Blue & White) : 3.26%

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Opposition) : 2.56%

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 1.96%

Others(OTH / Mixed, Opposition) : 0.21%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TKDMiOMSfOZdhglTYcUOa9POwk95HzPsWaCC6TV2k1U/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 February Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The nearest, Civic Coalition is also down from the last election. This is due to rise of Poland 2050, a new party formed by Szymon Hołownia. In the other hand, The Left is almost steady with the last election, and Confederation is pretty significantly up. However, Polish Coalition is now below the threshold of 5% for the first time and therefore will have no seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 158 Seats

(+4 From Jan ’21, -77 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 108 Seats

(-2 From Jan ’21, -26 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 98 Seats

(+22 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 50 Seats

(+7 From Jan ’21, +39 From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 45 Seats

(-1 From Jan ’21, -4 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seats

(-32 From Jan ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 29.87%

(-1.12pp From Jan ’21, -13.72pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 21.23%

(-2.05pp From Jan ’21, -6.10pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 20.98%

(+5.13pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 10.40%

(+1.57pp From Jan ’21, +3.59pp From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 9.08%

(-0.49pp From Jan ’21, -3.49pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.37%

(-2.16pp From Jan ’21, -4.18pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.99%

(-2.03pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.08%

(+1.15pp From Jan ’21, +1.98pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 32.80%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 21.18%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 20.93%

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 9.48%

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.55%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.56%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 1.03%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.47%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/150w115Wdzz3J3yIp_U4wOYGVTipPQt11RTMPeJS06yc/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2021 February Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in South Korea, People’s Power Party will be the largest party and the Democratic Party will only manage to take around 120 seats. Continuing on, People Party is at course to increase many seats. Justice Party is also still up on the seat level but has crashed down on the vote share level, making them even lower than the last election. This is due to scandals related to Kim Jong-chul, who resigned as the leader at the previous month. Open Democrats, People’s Livelihoods Party will gain seats, but the Progressive Party will not.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 147 Seats

(-5 From Jan ’21, +44 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 117 Seats

(+9 From Jan ’21, -63 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 15 Seats

(+2 From Jan ’21, +12 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 12 Seats

(-5 From Jan ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +5 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Jan ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jan ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 38.90%

(+2.34pp From Jan ’21, +5.06pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 29.90%

(+3.33pp From Jan ’21, -5.29pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 11.31%

(-0.25pp From Jan ’21, +4.51pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 9.15%

(-5.03pp From Jan ’21, -0.52pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.15%

(-0.70pp From Jan ’21, +0.71pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.59%

(+0.31pp From Jan ’21, -6.32pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 47.36%

(-0.37pp From Jan ’21, +5.90pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 44.47%

(+2.11pp From Jan ’21, -5.44pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.61%

(-1.07pp From Jan ’21, -0.10pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.56%

(-0.67pp From Jan ’21, -0.36pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval42.69%

(+3.20pp From Jan ’21, -13.51pp From Last Election)

Disapproval57.31%

(-3.20pp From Jan ’21, +13.51pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 42.27%

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 33.65%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 8.34%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.70%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 5.86%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.18%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval44.72%

Disapproval55.28% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tycTWN9xzu2tyMHXCE0LZnute_eS3wDEK0PwBCQL0wc/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 February Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Germany, we are projecting that the Union will be remaining as the largest group. In the other hand, the Greens are expected to make a push to second while the Social Democrats slipped to their lowest point in a federal election. Alternative for Germany, Free Democrats, The Left is down slightly from the last election.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (*Only Including Leveling Seats, No Overhang Seats Included.)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 207 Seats

(-1 From Jan ’21, -39 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 156 Seats

(+25 From Jan ’21, +89 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 85 Seats

(-6 From Jan ’21, -68 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 66 Seats

(-9 From Jan ’21, -28 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 45 Seats

(-3 From Jan ’21, -24 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 43 Seats

(-7 From Jan ’21, -37 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 32.46%

(-0.02pp From Jan ’21, -0.47pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 24.58%

(+4.08pp From Jan ’21, +15.64pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.40%

(-0.73pp From Jan ’21, -7.11pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.10%

(-0.92pp From Jan ’21, -2.54pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 6.79%

(-0.98pp From Jan ’21, -3.96pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.62%

(-0.74pp From Jan ’21, -2.62pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.05%

(-0.69pp From Jan ’21, +1.05pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 37.36%

(-0.10pp From Jan ’21, +0.10pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 22.42%

(+3.69pp From Jan ’21, +14.41pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 16.38%

(-0.92pp From Jan ’21, -8.26pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.32%

(-0.87pp From Jan ’21, -2.14pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.24%

(-0.71pp From Jan ’21, -2.31pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 4.50%

(-0.66pp From Jan ’21, -2.50pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.78%

(-0.43pp From Jan ’21, +0.70pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 36.09% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 18.50% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.27% 

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.31%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.44%

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.08%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.31%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XJ1cHWk1xFbkmtth6h0pTGnEw3B0PLMPn9sICbg7N3g/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Italy

[Italy General Election]2021 February Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will have the majority of the both chambers, after being ahead of current government Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-By Government/Opposition

Government : 41.37%

(-3.22pp From Jan ’21, -16.61pp From Last Election)

Opposition : 55.66%

(+4.09pp From Jan ’21, +19.96pp From Last Election)

Netural : 2.97%

(-0.87pp From Jan ’21, -3.35pp From Last Election)

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 55.66%

(+4.09pp From Jan ’21, +19.96pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 22.90%

(-2.88pp From Jan ’21, +1.00pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 16.63%

(-0.23pp From Jan ’21, -16.05pp From Last Election)

The Left(LS / Left-wing) : 1.84%

(-0.11pp From Jan ’21, -1.56pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.97%

(-0.87pp From Jan ’21, -3.35pp From Last Election)

-By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 30.87%

(+0.43pp From Jan ’21, +13.52pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 18.66%

(+3.70pp From Jan ’21, +14.31pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.63%

(-0.23pp From Jan ’21, -16.05pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 15.38%

(-1.40pp From Jan ’21, -3.38pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 5.68%

(-0.51pp From Jan ’21, -8.32pp From Last Election)

Action(A / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.67%

(-0.22pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.40%

(-0.42pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

The Left(LS / Left-wing – LS) : 1.84%

(-0.11pp From Jan ’21, -1.56pp From Last Election)

More Europe(+E / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.36%

(-0.62pp From Jan ’21, -1.20pp From Last Election)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.09%

(-0.37pp From Jan ’21, +0.51pp From Last Election)

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.45%

(RE-ENTRY, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed – MIXED) : 2.97%

(-0.70pp From Jan ’21, -3.35pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-By Government/Opposition

Government : 47.90%

Opposition : 48.90%

Netural : 3.20%

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX) : 48.90%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX) : 29.52%

Five Star Movement(M5S) : 15.15%

The Left(LS) : 3.23%

Others(OTH) : 3.20%

-By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 24.11%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 20.04%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 16.74%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 15.15%

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.45%

Action(A / Lean-Left – CSX) : 3.48%

The Left(LS / Left-wing – LS) : 3.23%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 3.12%

More Europe(+E / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.46%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.42%

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.60%

Others(OTH / Mixed – MIXED) : 3.20%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q2ZQZt6Ci1sQAjd1g1-S1-9BdnML7sIvfu7HUJLu5h4/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/