APRIL ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s April Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will clinch the victory over Center-Left, but it is Extremely Close between Center-Left & Center-Right in the vote level, which means Center-Left could win if unified.

_SEAT PROJECTION

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 247 Seats

(-3 From Mar ’23, +10 From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 75 Seats

(+6 From Mar ’23, -10 From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 53 Seats

(-3 From Mar ’23, +1 From Last Election)

Center Coalition(CX / Center) : 20 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’23, -1 From Last Election)

Eurosceptic Coalition(IE / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)

-By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 130 Seats

(-2 From Mar ’23, +11 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 74 Seats

(+14 From Mar ’23, +3 From Last Election)

League(LSP / Far-Right) : 65 Seats

(-1 From Mar ’23, -1 From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 53 Seats

(-3 From Mar ’23, +1 From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 44 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’23, -1 From Last Election)

Third Pole(TP / Center) : 20 Seats

(-2 From Mar ’23, -1 From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’23, +1 From Last Election)

South Tyrolean People’s Party + Trentino Tyrolean Autonomist Party(SVP+PATT / Lean-Right) : 3 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)

South Calls North(ScN / Big Tent) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 1 Seat

(+1 From Mar ’23, -1 From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(-9 From Mar ’23, -12 From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Left-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Sovereign & Popular Democracy(DSP / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 45.66%

(-0.52pp From Mar ’23, +2.53pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 22.87%

(+1.30pp From Mar ’23, -2.38pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 15.91%

(-1.06pp From Mar ’23, +0.74pp From Last Election)

Center Coalition(CX / Center) : 7.63%

(+0.11pp From Mar ’23, -0.06pp From Last Election)

Eurosceptic Coalition(IE / Big Tent) : 2.49%

(-0.28pp From Mar ’23, -0.54pp From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 0.68%

(-0.33pp From Mar ’23, -0.70pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.46%

(+0.78pp From Mar ’23, +0.41pp From Last Election)

-By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 29.28%

(-0.14pp From Mar ’23, +4.28pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 19.51%

(+2.27pp From Mar ’23, -0.55pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 15.91%

(-1.06pp From Mar ’23, +0.74pp From Last Election)

League(LSP / Far-Right) : 8.89%

(-0.26pp From Mar ’23, -0.56pp From Last Election)

Third Pole(TP / Center) : 7.63%

(+0.11pp From Mar ’23, -0.06pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 7.13%

(-0.15pp From Mar ’23, -0.66pp From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 2.61%

(-0.43pp From Mar ’23, -1.06pp From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 2.06%

(+0.03pp From Mar ’23, +0.23pp From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 2.05%

(-0.54pp From Mar ’23, -0.77pp From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Left-wing Big Tent) : 0.68%

(-0.33pp From Mar ’23, -0.70pp From Last Election)

Sovereign & Popular Democracy(DSP / Big Tent) : 0.43%

(-0.31pp From Mar ’23, -0.77pp From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 0.37%

(+0.03pp From Mar ’23, -0.53pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 3.46%

(+0.78pp From Mar ’23, -0.41pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Italy General Election April Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 13 polling data(16,038 unweighted / 14,538 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 3/24 and 3/31.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.