_HEADLINE
According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are most likely to be the largest party in the next parliament. But at the current scenario, they’ll be short of 32 seats from the majority. Also, the potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+AP+SDLP+GRN) could possibly form a new government at this stage with 327 seats, being ahead of the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) by 11.
_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION
-Seat Projection
Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 309 Seats
(+17 From Jan ’21, -56 From Last Election)
Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 254 Seats
(-19 From Jan ’21, +51 From Last Election)
Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 55 Seats
(+0 From Jan ’21, +7 From Last Election)
Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats
(+1 From Jan ’21, -3 From Last Election)
Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats
(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)
Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 6 Seats
(-2 From Jan ’21, -2 From Last Election)
Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 5 Seats
(+1 From Jan ’21, +1 From Last Election)
Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 2 Seats
(+1 From Jan ’21, +1 From Last Election)
Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats
(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)
Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seats
(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)
Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 1 Seats
(+1 From Jan ’21, +1 From Last Election)
Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seats
(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)
UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seats
(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats
(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection
Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 38.87%
(+2.05pp From Jan ’21, -4.76pp From Last Election)
Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 36.87%
(-1.25pp From Jan ’21, +4.71pp From Last Election)
Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 5.99%
(-1.16pp From Jan ’21, -5.84pp From Last Election)
Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.60%
(+0.47pp From Jan ’21, +0.72pp From Last Election)
Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 3.67%
(-1.68pp From Jan ’21, +0.99pp From Last Election)
Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 1.66%
(-0.02pp From Jan ’21, +1.18pp From Last Election)
Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0.99%
(-1.13pp From Jan ’21, -1.02pp From Last Election)
UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.70%
(+0.14pp From Jan ’21, +0.63pp From Last Election)
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.65%
(+2.49pp From Jan ’21, +3.03pp From Last Election)
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 40.22%
Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 38.35%
Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.83%
Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.78%
Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 3.81%
Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.56%
UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.73%
Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.60%
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.12%
_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tgFy1g4cZuXSDXlhSgdGU3KtAa4kebt5ojUVPh68QDk/
_Globe Elections UN Video
_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard
: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/
Global Elections History Society Center (GEHSC.en) 