_HEADLINE
According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in South Korea, People’s Power Party will be the largest party and the Democratic Party will only manage to take around 120 seats. Continuing on, People Party is at course to increase many seats. Justice Party is also still up on the seat level but has crashed down on the vote share level, making them even lower than the last election. This is due to scandals related to Kim Jong-chul, who resigned as the leader at the previous month. Open Democrats, People’s Livelihoods Party will gain seats, but the Progressive Party will not.
_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION
-Seat Projection
People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 147 Seats
(-5 From Jan ’21, +44 From Last Election)
Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 117 Seats
(+9 From Jan ’21, -63 From Last Election)
People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 15 Seats
(+2 From Jan ’21, +12 From Last Election)
Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 12 Seats
(-5 From Jan ’21, +6 From Last Election)
Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats
(+0 From Jan ’21, +5 From Last Election)
People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 1 Seat
(+0 From Jan ’21, +1 From Last Election)
Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat
(-1 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Jan ’21, -5 From Last Election)
-Proportional Vote Share Projection
People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 38.90%
(+2.34pp From Jan ’21, +5.06pp From Last Election)
Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 29.90%
(+3.33pp From Jan ’21, -5.29pp From Last Election)
People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 11.31%
(-0.25pp From Jan ’21, +4.51pp From Last Election)
Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 9.15%
(-5.03pp From Jan ’21, -0.52pp From Last Election)
Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.15%
(-0.70pp From Jan ’21, +0.71pp From Last Election)
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.59%
(+0.31pp From Jan ’21, -6.32pp From Last Election)
-Constituency Vote Share Projection
People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 47.36%
(-0.37pp From Jan ’21, +5.90pp From Last Election)
Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 44.47%
(+2.11pp From Jan ’21, -5.44pp From Last Election)
Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.61%
(-1.07pp From Jan ’21, -0.10pp From Last Election)
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.56%
(-0.67pp From Jan ’21, -0.36pp From Last Election)
-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>
Approval : 42.69%
(+3.20pp From Jan ’21, -13.51pp From Last Election)
Disapproval : 57.31%
(-3.20pp From Jan ’21, +13.51pp From Last Election)
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Proportional Vote Share Projection
Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 42.27%
People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 33.65%
People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 8.34%
Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.70%
Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 5.86%
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.18%
-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>
Approval : 44.72%
Disapproval : 55.28%
_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tycTWN9xzu2tyMHXCE0LZnute_eS3wDEK0PwBCQL0wc/
_Globe Elections UN Video
_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard
: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/
Global Elections History Society Center (GEHSC.en) 