Israel

[Israel General Election]2021 February Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Israel, Opposition Coalition will have the absolute majority of the next Knesset over Pro-Netanyahu Coalition. Also, the unity coalition partner Blue & White will have no seats after failing to pass 3.25% threshold. This means that the current prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be ousted pretty likely. However, there would be still a long road to a new PM due to the fact that opposition parties did not decide to support a unified candidate.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 74 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +39 From Last Election)

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 46 Seats

(+4 From Jan ’21, -6 From Last Election)

Blue & White(B&W / Center) : 0 Seats

(-4 From Jan ’21, -33 From Last Election)

-Seat Projection By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 31 Seats

(+4 From Jan ’21, -5 From Last Election)

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 18 Seats

(+5 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

New Hope(NH / Right-wing, Opposition) : 14 Seats

(-4 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 12 Seats

(-1 From Jan ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 11 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +5 From Last Election)

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, -1 From Last Election)

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Center-Right, Opposition) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Blue & White) : 0 Seats

(-4 From Jan ’21, -33 From Last Election)

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Opposition) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed, Opposition) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 61.04%

(-0.07pp From Jan ’21, +30.76pp From Last Election)

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 35.72%

(+0.12pp From Jan ’21, -7.41pp From Last Election)

Blue & White(B&W / Center) : 3.24%

(-0.05pp From Jan ’21, -23.35pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 23.88%

(+1.04pp From Jan ’21, -5.58pp From Last Election)

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 13.58%

(+2.50pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

New Hope(NH / Right-wing, Opposition) : 11.06%

(-3.70pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 9.13%

(-1.35pp From Jan ’21, -3.54pp From Last Election)

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 8.54%

(-1.04pp From Jan ’21, +3.30pp From Last Election)

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 6.07%

(-0.60pp From Jan ’21, -1.62pp From Last Election)

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 5.77%

(-0.32pp From Jan ’21, -0.21pp From Last Election)

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Center-Right, Opposition) : 5.32%

(-0.12pp From Jan ’21, -0.28pp From Last Election)

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 5.28%

(-0.39pp From Jan ’21, -0.60pp From Last Election)

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 3.66%

(-0.12pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Blue & White) : 3.24%

(-0.05pp From Jan ’21, -23.35pp From Last Election)

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 2.01%

(+1.76pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Opposition) : 1.83%

(+1.76pp From Jan ’21, +1.41pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed, Opposition) : 0.63%

(+0.63pp From Jan ’21, +0.25pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Coalition

Opposition Coalition(OC / Big Tent) : 61.24%

Pro-Netanyahu Coalition(PNC / Right-wing Big Tent) : 35.50%

Blue & White(B&W / Center) : 3.26%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Likud / Consolidation(LIK / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 23.70%

Yesh Atid / There Is A Future(YA / Center, Opposition) : 13.68%

New Hope(NH / Right-wing, Opposition) : 10.98%

Yamina / Right(YAM / Far-Right, Opposition) : 9.60%

Joint List(JL / Left-wing Big Tent, Opposition) : 7.96%

Shas(SHAS / Big Tent, Pro-Netanyahu) : 5.94%

United Torah Judaism(UTJ / Right-wing, Pro-Netanyahu) : 5.86%

Yisrael Beiteinu / Israel Our Home(YB / Center-Right, Opposition) : 5.20%

Labor(LAB / Center-Left, Opposition) : 5.04%

Meretz / Vigour(MER / Left-wing, Opposition) : 4.05%

Blue & White(B&W / Center, Blue & White) : 3.26%

Religious Zionist Party(RZP / Far-Right, Opposition) : 2.56%

New Economic Party(NEP / Center-Left, Opposition) : 1.96%

Others(OTH / Mixed, Opposition) : 0.21%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TKDMiOMSfOZdhglTYcUOa9POwk95HzPsWaCC6TV2k1U/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 February Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are most likely to be the largest party in the next parliament. But at the current scenario, they’ll be short of 32 seats from the majority. Also, the potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+AP+SDLP+GRN) could possibly form a new government at this stage with 327 seats, being ahead of the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) by 11.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 309 Seats

(+17 From Jan ’21, -56 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 254 Seats

(-19 From Jan ’21, +51 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 55 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +7 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(+1 From Jan ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 6 Seats

(-2 From Jan ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 5 Seats

(+1 From Jan ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 2 Seats

(+1 From Jan ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 1 Seats

(+1 From Jan ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)


-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 38.87%

(+2.05pp From Jan ’21, -4.76pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 36.87%

(-1.25pp From Jan ’21, +4.71pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 5.99%

(-1.16pp From Jan ’21, -5.84pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.60%

(+0.47pp From Jan ’21, +0.72pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 3.67%

(-1.68pp From Jan ’21, +0.99pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 1.66%

(-0.02pp From Jan ’21, +1.18pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0.99%

(-1.13pp From Jan ’21, -1.02pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.70%

(+0.14pp From Jan ’21, +0.63pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.65%

(+2.49pp From Jan ’21, +3.03pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 40.22%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 38.35%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.83%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.78%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 3.81%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.56%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.73%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.60%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.12%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tgFy1g4cZuXSDXlhSgdGU3KtAa4kebt5ojUVPh68QDk/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/