South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 12/28 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

12/28 ’21 POLLING FOLLOWER

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 42.58%

(+0.09pp From 12/27 ’21, +1.49pp From Last Election)

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 42.44%

(+0.15pp From 12/27 ’21, +11.55pp From Last Election)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 6.17%

(+0.15pp From 12/27 ’21, -15.24pp From Last Election)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 4.34%

(-0.33pp From 12/27 ’21, -1.84pp From Last Election)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 0.63%

(-0.30pp From 12/27 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : 0.58%

(+0.03pp From 12/27 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 3.26%

(+0.21pp From 12/27 ’21, +2.83pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

-Age Projections

~20s – YOON 36.04%, LEE 32.85%, AHN 13.05%, SIM 10.86%, HUH 1.57%, KIM 0.52%, OTHERS 5.11%

30s – LEE 43.91%, YOON 36.71%, AHN 8.09%, SIM 5.50%, HUH 1.07%, KIM 0.62%, OTHERS 4.10%

40s – LEE 58.07%, YOON 29.46%, AHN 5.53%, SIM 2.87%, KIM 0.64%, HUH 0.36%, OTHERS 3.07%

50s – LEE 49.85%, YOON 39.41%, AHN 3.72%, SIM 3.08%, KIM 0.78%, HUH 0.22%, OTHERS 2.94%

60s~ – YOON 58.35%, LEE 32.48%, AHN 3.75%, SIM 2.34%, KIM 0.72%, HUH 0.22%, OTHERS 2.14%

South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 12/27 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

12/27 ’21 POLLING FOLLOWER

_DATA

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-Vote Share Projection

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 42.49%

(+0.49pp From 12/25 ’21, +1.40pp From Last Election)

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 42.29%

(-0.94pp From 12/25 ’21, +11.40pp From Last Election)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 6.02%

(+0.58pp From 12/25 ’21, -15.39pp From Last Election)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 4.67%

(+0.19pp From 12/25 ’21, -1.51pp From Last Election)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 0.93%

(-0.05pp From 12/25 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : 0.55%

(-0.08pp From 12/25 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 3.05%

(-0.19pp From 12/25 ’21, +2.62pp From Last Election)

_TREND

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is ebb3b8ec84a0-ec97aceba1a0eca1b0ec82ac-eca285ed95a9_12.272.jpg

_AGE

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is ebb3b8ec84a0-ec97aceba1a0eca1b0ec82ac-eca285ed95a9_12.273.jpg

-Age Projections

~20s – YOON 35.72%, LEE 32.27%, SIM 12.35%, AHN 12.35%, HUH 2.43%, KIM 0.56%, OTHERS 4.32%

30s – LEE 44.36%, YOON 35.57%, AHN 8.22%, SIM 5.62%, HUH 1.63%, KIM 0.56%, OTHERS 4.04%

40s – LEE 58.43%, YOON 28.88%, AHN 4.79%, SIM 3.23%, KIM 0.82%, HUH 0.53%, OTHERS 3.32%

50s – LEE 49.27%, YOON 39.85%, SIM 3.52%, AHN 3.28%, KIM 0.79%, HUH 0.36%, OTHERS 2.94%

60s~ – YOON 58.51%, LEE 32.05%, AHN 3.52%, SIM 2.37%, KIM 1.01%, HUH 0.36%, OTHERS 2.18%

South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 12/25 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

12/25 ’21 POLLING FOLLOWER

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 43.23%

(-3.49pp From 11/30 ’21, +12.34pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 42.00%

(+1.49pp From 11/30 ’21, +0.91pp From Last Election)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 5.44%

(+0.96pp From 11/30 ’21, -15.97pp From Last Election)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 4.48%

(-0.04pp From 11/30 ’21, -1.70pp From Last Election)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 0.98%

(+0.60pp From 11/30 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : 0.63%

(+0.05pp From 11/30 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 3.24%

(+0.43pp From 11/30 ’21, +2.81pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

-Age Projections

~20s – YOON 37.84%, LEE 32.08%, SIM 11.79%, AHN 11.05%, HUH 2.27%, KIM 0.53%, OTHERS 4.44%

30s – LEE 43.83%, YOON 36.73%, AHN 7.88%, SIM 5.20%, HUH 1.74%, KIM 0.58%, OTHERS 4.04%

40s – LEE 58.07%, YOON 29.67%, AHN 4.59%, SIM 3.15%, KIM 0.77%, HUH 0.67%, OTHERS 3.08%

50s – LEE 49.31%, YOON 40.74%, AHN 3.29%, SIM 3.07%, KIM 0.72%, HUH 0.25%, OTHERS 2.62%

60s~ – YOON 59.06%, LEE 31.74%, AHN 3.39%, SIM 2.17%, KIM 0.96%, HUH 0.38%, OTHERS 2.30%

Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 December Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

DECEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s December Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. With Donald Tusk’s return, Civic Coalition has managed to make a big bounce and Poland 2050 is down to their starting point. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 183 Seats

(-1 From Oct ’21, -52 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 117 Seats

(-8 From Oct ’21, -17 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 66 Seats

(+2 From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 53 Seats

(+4 From Oct ’21, +42 From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 39 Seats

(+2 From Oct ’21, -10 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Oct ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 34.41%

(-1.30pp From Oct ’21, -9.18pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 24.81%

(-1.42pp From Oct ’21, -2.52pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 14.16%

(+0.11pp From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 11.28%

(+0.46pp From Oct ’21, +4.47pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 7.95%

(+0.38pp From Oct ’21, -4.62pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.71%

(+0.94pp From Oct ’21, -3.85pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.54%

(+0.01pp From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.39%

(-0.03pp From Oct ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.75%

(+0.85pp From Oct ’21, -1.01pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 37.39%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 24.49%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 13.97%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.18%

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 8.22%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.86%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.56%

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.43%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.90%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

America

[Chile Presidential Election]2021 2nd Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 R2 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in Chile, we are projecting that it is Too Close To Call between José Kast and Gabriel Boric.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Gabriel Boric(AD / Left-wing) : 51.47%

(+6.04pp From Last Election)

José Kast(FSC / Far-Right) : 48.53%

(-6.04pp From Last Election)

_REGIONAL PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

OH(O’Higgins) – KAST +0.11pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

AT(Atacama) – BORIC +0.96pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

ML(Maule) – KAST +2.62pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

BI(Biobío) – KAST +4.22pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

AN(Antofagasta) – BORIC +4.44pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

LL(Los Lagos) – BORIC +4.90pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

LR(Los Ríos) – BORIC +5.24pp

TA(Tarapacá) – KAST +5.66pp

SA(Santiago) – BORIC +5.80pp

VA(Valparaíso) – BORIC +7.66pp

ÑU(Ñuble) – KAST +7.80pp

-Other Races

CO(Coquimbo) – BORIC +11.10pp

AP(Arica & Parinacota) – BORIC +11.22pp

AR(Araucanía) – KAST +13.14pp

AY(Aysén) – BORIC +15.50pp

MG(Magallanes) – BORIC +24.32pp

EX(Extranjero) – BORIC +32.53pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard


R1 BASE ’21 R2 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN VIDEO

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round R1 BASE Projection in Chile, we are projecting that it is a Key Race between José Kast and Gabriel Boric but Boric leads over Kast slightly.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Gabriel Boric(AD / Left-wing) : 53.33%

(+7.90pp From Last Election)

José Kast(FSC / Far-Right) : 46.67%

(-7.90pp From Last Election)

_REGIONAL PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

LR(Los Ríos) – BORIC +0.22pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

LL(Los Lagos) – KAST +1.92pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

AP(Arica & Parinacota) – KAST +3.52pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

ML(Maule) – KAST +4.46pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

BI(Biobío) – KAST +4.96pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

TA(Tarapacá) – KAST +5.04pp

OH(O’Higgins) – BORIC +8.28pp

AY(Aysén) – BORIC +9.76pp

-Other Races

VA(Valparaíso) – BORIC +10.84pp

SA(Santiago) – BORIC +12.58pp

ÑU(Ñuble) – KAST +13.36pp

AN(Antofagasta) – BORIC +14.22pp

MG(Magallanes) – BORIC +16.98pp

AR(Araucanía) – KAST +19.32pp

CO(Coquimbo) – BORIC +20.04pp

EX(Extranjero) – BORIC +33.14pp

AT(Atacama) – BORIC +35.24pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard


Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 December Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

DECEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s December Projection in Germany, we are projecting that it is Too Close To Call between the Social Democrats and the Unions. Greens are at strong 3rd, and Free Democrats, Alternative, The Left follows behind.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21 – Will Be Back At Jan ’22)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 167 Seats

(-39 From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 146 Seats

(-51 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 101 Seats

(-17 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 78 Seats

(-14 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 73 Seats

(-10 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 35 Seats

(-4 From Last Election)

South Schleswig Voters’ Association(SSW / Big Tent) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 25.60%

(-0.14pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 22.40%

(-1.67pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 15.57%

(+0.82pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.91%

(+0.45pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.11%

(+0.77pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 5.20%

(+0.31pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 8.21%

(-0.54pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 26.68%

(-1.88pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 26.35%

(-0.04pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 14.78%

(+0.83pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.92%

(+0.79pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 9.10%

(+0.38pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 5.31%

(+0.33pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.86%

(-0.41pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Italy

[Italy General Election]2021 December Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

DECEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s Decmeber Projection in Italy, we are projecting that now it is Too Close To Call between Center-Right Coalition and Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement as the margin declines.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 50.86%

(-1.30pp From Aug ’21, +13.86pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 46.04%

(+1.84pp From Aug ’21, -11.94pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.10%

(-0.54pp From Aug ’21, -1.92pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 50.86%

(-1.30pp From Aug ’21, +13.86pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 24.86%

(+1.57pp From Aug ’21, +2.96pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 17.79%

(-0.06pp From Aug ’21, -14.89pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.39%

(+0.33pp From Aug ’21, -0.01pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.10%

(-0.54pp From Aug ’21, -1.92pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 22.84%

(-0.51pp From Aug ’21, +18.49pp From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 21.31%

(-1.51pp From Aug ’21, +3.96pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 17.79%

(-0.06pp From Aug ’21, -14.89pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 16.55%

(+1.01pp From Aug ’21, -2.21pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 5.78%

(+0.20pp From Aug ’21, -8.22pp From Last Election)

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.52%

(-0.11pp From Aug ’21, +1.96pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.39%

(+0.33pp From Aug ’21, -0.01pp From Last Election)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.14%

(+0.13pp From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.65%

(+0.44pp From Aug ’21, +1.07pp From Last Election)

Courage Italy(CI / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.93%

(+0.52pp From Aug ’21, -0.37pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.10%

(-0.54pp From Aug ’21, -1.92pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 49.74%

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 47.04%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.22%

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 47.04%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 30.22%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 15.61%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.91%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.22%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 20.77%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 19.74%

League(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 18.81%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 15.61%

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.32%

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.69%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 3.91%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.68%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 2.08%

Courage Italy(CI / Center-Right – CDX) : 1.17%

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 3.22%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

United States

[United States New Jersey Election]2021 FINAL Results & Projection Analysis

FINAL ’21 RESULTS

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s LIVE Projection in United States New Jersey, we have called that Phil Murphy is the Apparent Winner over Jack Ciattareli.

_VIRGINIA RESULTS

-Vote Share Projection

Phil Murphy(DP / Center) : 51.20%

(-4.83pp From Last Election)

Jack Ciattareli(GOP / Center-Right) : 47.97%

(+6.08pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.83%

(-1.25pp From Last Election)

_PROJECTION ANALYSIS

-Average Error Analysis

Globe Elections UN(FINAL Projection) : 1.48%

Globe Elections UN(LIVE Projection) : 0.82%

—————————————————–

RealClearPolitics(Average) : 3.98%

Stellar Spark Studios(Projection) : 3.98%

-Standard Error Analysis

Globe Elections UN(FINAL Projection) : 1.99%

Globe Elections UN(LIVE Projection) : 1.21%

—————————————————–

RealClearPolitics(Average) : 5.66%

Stellar Spark Studios(Projection) : 5.78%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard



South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 December Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

DECEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s December Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that Yoon Seok-youl now leads Lee Jae-myung slightly but however it is still a Key Race. Ahn Cheol-soo and Sim Sang-jung follow as 3rd tiers.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 46.72%

(+6.94pp From Nov ’21, +15.83pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 40.51%

(+1.02pp From Nov ’21, -0.58pp From Last Election)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 4.52%

(+0.16pp From Nov ’21, -1.66pp From Last Election)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 4.48%

(+0.08pp From Nov ’21, -16.93pp From Last Election)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : 0.58%

(-0.13pp From Nov ’21, NEW PARTY)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 0.38%

(NEW ENTRY, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 2.81%

(-8.45pp From Nov ’21, +2.38pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

DJ​(Daejeon) – ​LEE +0.93pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

GY​(Gyeonggi) – ​YOON +1.32pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

IN​(Incheon) – ​YOON +2.05pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

SU​(Seoul) – ​YOON +6.90pp

JJ(Jeju) – ​LEE +8.03pp

CN​(Chungnam) – ​YOON +9.27pp

-Other Races

CB(Chungbuk) – ​YOON +11.84pp

UL​(Ulsan) – ​YOON +13.71pp

BU​(Busan) – ​YOON +17.76pp

SJ(Sejong) – ​LEE +18.01pp

GA​(Gangwon) – ​YOON +21.76pp

GN​(Gyeongnam) – ​YOON +24.47pp

GB(Gyeongbuk) – ​YOON +47.80pp

DG​(Daegu) – ​YOON +48.81pp

JB(Jeonbuk) – ​LEE +53.08pp

JN(Jeonnam) – ​LEE +55.00pp

GW(Gwangju) – ​LEE +61.00pp

_GENERAL ELECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 43.16%

(-2.41pp From Nov ’21, +9.32pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 37.62%

(+2.12pp From Nov ’21, +4.26pp From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 6.39%

(-0.12pp From Nov ’21, -0.41pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.23%

(+0.10pp From Nov ’21, -0.21pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 5.01%

(+0.14pp From Nov ’21, -4.66pp From Last Election)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.10%

(-0.07pp From Nov ’21, NEW PARTY)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.05%

(-0.08pp From Nov ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.44%

(+0.32pp From Nov ’21, -8.57pp From Last Election)

_PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 41.90%

(+0.46pp From Nov ’21, -14.30pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 58.10%

(-0.46pp From Nov ’21, +14.30pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe

[Bulgaria Presidential Election]2021 2nd Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 R2 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Bulgaria, we are projecting that Rumen Radev will defeat Anastas Gerdzhikov and will be re-elected.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Rumen Radev(BSPzB / Center-Left) : 61.66%

(-0.49pp From Last Election)

Anastas Gerdzhikov(GERB / Center-Right) : 38.34%

(+0.49pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

-Other Races

SC-24(Sofia(C-24)) – RADEV +12.46pp

VA(Varna) – RADEV +12.66pp

BU(Burgas) – RADEV +14.54pp

PC(Plovdiv(C)) – RADEV +14.54pp

SC-23(Sofia(C-23)) – RADEV +15.96pp

BL(Blagoevgrad) – RADEV +16.48pp

SC-25(Sofia(C-25)) – RADEV +16.74pp

GA(Gabrovo) – RADEV +16.98pp

SL(Sliven) – RADEV +20.62pp

PE(Pernik) – RADEV +20.72pp

KY(Kyustendil) – RADEV +20.74pp

SI(Silistra) – RADEV +24.86pp

RU(Ruse) – RADEV +25.48pp

SM(Smolyan) – RADEV +25.50pp

SP(Sofia(P)) – RADEV +26.36pp

SZ(Stara Zagora) – RADEV+26.56pp

PP(Plovdiv(P)) – RADEV +26.56pp

LO(Lovech) – RADEV +26.82pp

SH(Shumen) – RADEV +26.96pp

PA(Pazardzhik) – RADEV +27.74pp

MO(Montana) – RADEV +31.40pp

VI(Vidin) – RADEV +31.74pp

VR(Vratsa) – RADEV +31.84pp

YA(Yambol) – RADEV +32.44pp

HA(Haskovo) – RADEV +33.28pp

DO(Dobrich) – RADEV +33.74pp

VT(Veliko Tarnovo) – RADEV +34.42pp

RA(Razgrad) – RADEV +35.48pp

PL(Pleven) – RADEV +35.72pp

KA(Kardzhali) – RADEV +41.56pp

TA(Targovishte) – RADEV +45.04pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard


R1 BASE ’21 R2 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s R1 BASE Projection in Bulgaria, we are projecting that Rumen Radev will defeat Anastas Gerdzhikov and will be re-elected.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Rumen Radev(BSPzB / Center-Left) : 64.73%

(+2.58pp From Last Election)

Anastas Gerdzhikov(GERB / Center-Right) : 35.27%

(-2.58pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

SC-24(Sofia(C-24)) – RADEV +5.84pp

-Other Races

SC-25(Sofia(C-25)) – RADEV +10.08pp

PE(Pernik) – RADEV +14.32pp

GA(Gabrovo) – RADEV +14.76pp

PC(Plovdiv(C)) – RADEV +15.52pp

KY(Kyustendil) – RADEV +15.60pp

VA(Varna) – RADEV +16.30pp

SP(Sofia(P)) – RADEV +21.16pp

SC-23(Sofia(C-23)) – RADEV +23.32pp

LO(Lovech) – RADEV +24.90pp

PP(Plovdiv(P)) – RADEV +27.28pp

SL(Sliven) – RADEV +27.72pp

YA(Yambol) – RADEV +28.92pp

SZ(Stara Zagora) – RADEV+29.16pp

VI(Vidin) – RADEV +29.54pp

BU(Burgas) – RADEV +30.30pp

PA(Pazardzhik) – RADEV +30.32pp

VR(Vratsa) – RADEV +30.62pp

VT(Veliko Tarnovo) – RADEV +32.80pp

BL(Blagoevgrad) – RADEV +34.20pp

DO(Dobrich) – RADEV +35.76pp

RU(Ruse) – RADEV +35.96pp

SH(Shumen) – RADEV +38.98pp

SM(Smolyan) – RADEV +40.80pp

MO(Montana) – RADEV +41.80pp

SI(Silistra) – RADEV +42.62pp

HA(Haskovo) – RADEV +46.74pp

RA(Razgrad) – RADEV +54.20pp

PL(Pleven) – RADEV +38.52pp

TA(Targovishte) – RADEV +49.56pp

KA(Kardzhali) – RADEV +72.84pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard