United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives will likely retain majority in the next parliament with a majority of 48 seats. Also, the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 357 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+SDLP+GRN+AP)‘s 286 by 71.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 349 Seats

(-11 From May ’21, -19 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 213 Seats

(+8 From May ’21, +10 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 55 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, +7 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 5 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.27%

(-1.66pp From Jun ’21, -2.36pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 32.31%

(-0.06pp From Jun ’21, +0.15pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8.19%

(+0.72pp From Jun ’21, -3.64pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.47%

(-0.24pp From Jun ’21, +2.79pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.65%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, +0.77pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.55%

(+0.22pp From Jun ’21, -0.46pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.86%

(+0.14pp From Jun ’21, +0.38pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.11%

(-0.19pp From Jun ’21, +0.05pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 5.59%

(+0.78pp From Jun ’21, +1.97pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.76%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 32.87%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 9.14%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.57%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.73%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.11%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.87%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.11%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.84%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 June Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JUNE ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives will retain majority in the next parliament with a big majority of 70 seats. Also, the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 368 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+SDLP+GRN+AP)‘s 274 by 94.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 360 Seats

(+18 From May ’21, -8 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 205 Seats

(-21 From May ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 54 Seats

(+1 From May ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 8 Seats

(+2 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7 Seats

(-1 From May ’21, -4 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 4 Seats

(-1 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 1 Seat

(-1 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(-1 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.93%

(+0.77pp From May ’21, -0.70pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 32.37%

(-2.78pp From May ’21, +0.21pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.47%

(+0.61pp From May ’21, -4.36pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.71%

(+0.49pp From May ’21, +3.03pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.36%

(+0.14pp From May ’21, +0.48pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.33%

(-0.02pp From Apr ’21, -0.68pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.72%

(-0.19pp From May ’21, +0.24pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.30%

(-0.10pp From May ’21, +0.24pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.81%

(+1.08pp From May ’21, +1.19pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 43.23%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 32.78%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8.30%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.78%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.41%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.04%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.73%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.30%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.43%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are likely to be retaining majority in the next parliament with a majority of 28 seats. Also, the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 346 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+AP+SDLP+GRN)‘s 297 by 49.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 339 Seats

(-3 From Apr ’21, -26 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 226 Seats

(+4 From Apr ’21, +23 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 53 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’21, +5 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(+1 From Apr ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 6 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 5 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.16%

(+0.09pp From Apr ’21, -1.47pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.15%

(+0.42pp From Apr ’21, +2.99pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.86%

(+0.27pp From Apr ’21, -4.97pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.22%

(+0.22pp From Apr ’21, +2.54pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.22%

(-0.22pp From Apr ’21, +0.34pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.35%

(-0.06pp From Apr ’21, -0.66pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.91%

(-0.82pp From Apr ’21, +0.43pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.40%

(-0.73pp From Apr ’21, +0.34pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.73%

(+0.83pp From Apr ’21, +0.11pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.24%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.41%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.57%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.26%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.25%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.06%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.92%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.41%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.88%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gn6n8aOQiDOZ9sFV2D_oHt3gllKZ8KJy47CFIVlrZ3c/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom Scotland General Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in the United Kingdom(UK) Scotland, we are projecting that the Scottish Nationals could possibly gain majority in the next parliament with a majority of 1 seat at the most likeliest outcome. Also, the potential Pro-Independence Alliance(SNP+GRN+ALBA) will have a absolute majority with 76 seats, after being ahead of potential Anti-Independence Alliance(CON+LAB+LD+AFU+RUK+UKIP)‘s 53 by 23 seats.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 65 Seats

(+2 From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 28 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 20 Seats

(-4 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 11 Seats

(+5 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Scotland Party(ALBA / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

All For Unity(AFU / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

-Proportional(=Regional) Vote Share Projection

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 37.81%

(-3.91pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 22.32%

(-0.61pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 17.61%

(-1.46pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 10.01%

(+3.43pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 5.92%

(+0.70pp From Last Election)

Scotland Party(ALBA / Big Tent) : 3.10%

(NEW PARTY)

All For Unity(AFU / Big Tent) : 0.81%

(NEW PARTY)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0.30%

(NEW PARTY)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.08%

(-1.95pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.04%

(-0.41pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 48.75%

(+2.25pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 21.27%

(-0.75pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 20.77%

(-1.79pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.92%

(-0.90pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1.22%

(+0.64pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.07%

(+0.55pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_xLi0yWCmSEB_kgaQ-7GG3e_xgMWG4dcGyibx9qaL8Y/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 April Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s April Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are very likely to be retaining majority in the next parliament with a majority of 34 seats. Also, the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 349 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+AP+SDLP+GRN)‘s 294 by 55.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 342 Seats

(+5 From Mar ’21, -23 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 222 Seats

(-6 From Mar ’21, +19 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 54 Seats

(+2 From Mar ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7 Seats

(-1 From Mar ’21, -4 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 6 Seats

(+1 From Mar ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 6 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.07%

(+1.00pp From Mar ’21, -1.56pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 34.73%

(-0.93pp From Mar ’21, +2.57pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.59%

(+0.22pp From Mar ’21, -5.24pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.00%

(+0.44pp From Mar ’21, +2.32pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.44%

(+0.47pp From Mar ’21, +0.56pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 1.73%

(+0.13pp From Mar ’21, +1.25pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.41%

(-0.05pp From Mar ’21, -0.60pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 1.13%

(+0.40pp From Mar ’21, +1.07pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.90%

(-1.68pp From Mar ’21, -0.72pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.45%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.24%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.33%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.08%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.51%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.16%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 1.15%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.76%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.32%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FX-r1wsPrevLkXCJ7BMibNCMTgie9ZFPtPjqMmAZuvQ/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 March Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are likely to be retaining majority in the next parliament with a majority of 24 seats. Also, the the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 344 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+AP+SDLP+GRN)‘s 298 by 46.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 337 Seats

(+28 From Feb ’21, -28 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 228 Seats

(-26 From Feb ’21, +25 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 52 Seats

(-3 From Feb ’21, +4 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 6 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)


-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.07%

(+2.20pp From Feb ’21, -2.56pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.66%

(-1.21pp From Feb ’21, +3.50pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.37%

(+0.38pp From Feb ’21, -5.46pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 4.56%

(+0.89pp From Feb ’21, +1.88pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 3.97%

(-0.63pp From Feb ’21, +0.09pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 1.60%

(-0.06pp From Feb ’21, +1.12pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.46%

(+0.47pp From Feb ’21, -0.55pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.73%

(+0.03pp From Feb ’21, +0.67pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.58%

(-2.07pp From Feb ’21, +0.96pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.80%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 36.50%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.14%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 4.66%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.07%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.26%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.75%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.71%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.11%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UIsM18XFC03VHt3aiqBT0I3GqS-QZlMhB-q71QgdeY4/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 February Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are most likely to be the largest party in the next parliament. But at the current scenario, they’ll be short of 32 seats from the majority. Also, the potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+AP+SDLP+GRN) could possibly form a new government at this stage with 327 seats, being ahead of the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) by 11.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 309 Seats

(+17 From Jan ’21, -56 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 254 Seats

(-19 From Jan ’21, +51 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 55 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +7 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(+1 From Jan ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 6 Seats

(-2 From Jan ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 5 Seats

(+1 From Jan ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 2 Seats

(+1 From Jan ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 1 Seats

(+1 From Jan ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)


-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 38.87%

(+2.05pp From Jan ’21, -4.76pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 36.87%

(-1.25pp From Jan ’21, +4.71pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 5.99%

(-1.16pp From Jan ’21, -5.84pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.60%

(+0.47pp From Jan ’21, +0.72pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 3.67%

(-1.68pp From Jan ’21, +0.99pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 1.66%

(-0.02pp From Jan ’21, +1.18pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0.99%

(-1.13pp From Jan ’21, -1.02pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.70%

(+0.14pp From Jan ’21, +0.63pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.65%

(+2.49pp From Jan ’21, +3.03pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 40.22%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 38.35%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.83%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.78%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 3.81%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.56%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.73%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.60%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.12%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tgFy1g4cZuXSDXlhSgdGU3KtAa4kebt5ojUVPh68QDk/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 January Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s January Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are most likely to be the largest party in the next parliament. But at the current scenario, they’ll be short of 66 seats from the majority, meaning the potential Progressive Alliance could possibly form a new government.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 292 Seats

(-5 From Dec ’20, -73 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 273 Seats

(+8 From Dec ’20, +70 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 55 Seats

(-3 From Dec ’20, +7 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, -4 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 4 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 18 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 38.12%

(+0.58pp From Dec ’20, +5.96pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 36.82%

(-0.62pp From Dec ’20, -6.81pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.15%

(+0.93pp From Dec ’20, -4.68pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.35%

(+1.58pp From Dec ’20, +2.67pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.13%

(-0.82pp From Dec ’20, +0.25pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.12%

(+0.19pp From Dec ’20, +0.11pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 1.68%

(-0.46pp From Dec ’20, +1.20pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.56%

(-2.02pp From Dec ’20, +0.49pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.07%

(+0.64pp From Dec ’20, +0.54pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 38.27%

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 37.22%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.55%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.98%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.19%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 3.87%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.70%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.25%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.97%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x2c8H3zknlIMeTZ_Fr9dVbc_Ng4YfBExjyTT5dzyhaU/

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

_Video

_Headline

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives will remain as the largest party in the next parliament. In the most likeliest scenario, they’ll have a majority of 18 seats, meaning that the current PM Boris Johnson will possibly be re-elected. But the reason that we’re putting the Tories just simply as the largest party is they could still not have a majority.

_Poll+Error Projection(Full)

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 334 Seats (-7 From July, -31 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 229 Seats (+7 From July, +26 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 58 Seats (+0 From July, +10 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6 Seats (+0 From July, -5 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / The Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 4 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 18 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.73% (-1.15pp From July, -1.90pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.56% (+0.63pp From July, +3.40pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.20% (-0.60pp From July, -5.35pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 6.06% (+0.73pp From July, +2.18pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 3.91% (-0.19pp From July, +1.21pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 1.53% (+0.90pp From July, +1.46pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / The Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.45% (-0.24pp From July, -0.03pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.56% (-0.08pp From July, -0.97pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.73%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 38.35%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.54%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.93%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 4.06%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 1.56%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.46%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.37%

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cPwBykQjWMhvWH_IXlUz_GjFJe2_XD8UYZw-WQyVSHw/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/