United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 October Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

OCTOBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s October Projection in United Kingdom, we are projecting that the Conservatives will be the largrest party in the next parliament with a majority of 22 seats most likely. Also, the Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 345 seats, being ahead of Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+SDLP+GRN+AP)‘s 298 by 47.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 336 Seats

(-7 From Sep ’21, -29 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 227 Seats

(+6 From Sep ’21, +24 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 54 Seats

(+1 From Sep ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(-1 From Sep ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, -1 From Last Election)

We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 6 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, -1 From Last Election)

Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 39.86%

(-0.85pp From Sep ’21, -3.77pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 33.64%

(+0.71pp From Sep ’21, +1.48pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8.26%

(-0.31pp From Sep ’21, -3.57pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 6.52%

(+0.40pp From Sep ’21, +3.84pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.41%

(+0.19pp From Sep ’21, +0.53pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.69%

(-0.88pp From Sep ’21, -0.32pp From Last Election)

Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.69%

(-0.08pp From Sep ’21, +0.21pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.29%

(-0.10pp From Sep ’21, +0.23pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.64%

(+0.92pp From Sep ’21, +1.02pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 40.12%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 34.04%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 9.17%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 6.60%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.47%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.27%

Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.69%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.29%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.35%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

SEPTEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in United Kingdom, we are projecting that the Conservatives will be the largrest party in the next parliament with a majority of 42 seats most likely. Also, the Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 352 seats, being ahead of Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+SDLP+GRN+AP)‘s 292 by 60.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 343 Seats

(+11 From Aug ’21, -22 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 221 Seats

(-11 From Aug ’21, +18 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 53 Seats

(+1 From Aug ’21, +5 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 9 Seats

(+0 From Aug ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 7 Seats

(-1 From Aug ’21, -1 From Last Election)

We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 6 Seats

(-1 From Aug ’21, -1 From Last Election)

Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Aug ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 2 Seats

(+2 From Aug ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 40.71%

(+0.97pp From Aug ’21, -2.92pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 32.93%

(-1.94pp From Aug ’21, +0.77pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8.57%

(+0.76pp From Aug ’21, -3.26pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 6.12%

(+0.29pp From Aug ’21, +3.44pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.22%

(+0.30pp From Aug ’21, +0.34pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.57%

(+0.91pp From Aug ’21, +0.56pp From Last Election)

Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.77%

(-0.08pp From Aug ’21, +0.29pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.39%

(-0.13pp From Aug ’21, +0.33pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.72%

(-1.08pp From Aug ’21, +0.10pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 40.66%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 33.07%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 9.43%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 6.15%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.23%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 3.43%

Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.77%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.39%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.87%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 August Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

AUGUST ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives will be the largrest party in the next parliament with a majority of 14 seats most likely. Also, the Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 340 seats, being ahead of Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+SDLP+GRN+AP)‘s 303 by 37.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 332 Seats

(-17 From Jul ’21, -36 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 232 Seats

(+19 From Jul ’21, +29 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 52 Seats

(-3 From Jul ’21, +4 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 9 Seats

(+1 From Jul ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 5 Seats

(+1 From Jul ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 39.74%

(-1.53pp From Jul ’21, -3.89pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 34.87%

(+2.56pp From Jul ’21, +2.71pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.81%

(-0.38pp From Jul ’21, -4.02pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.83%

(+0.36pp From Jul ’21, +3.15pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 3.92%

(-0.73pp From Jul ’21, +0.04pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.66%

(+0.11pp From Jul ’21, -0.35pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.85%

(-0.01pp From Jul ’21, +0.37pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.52%

(+0.41pp From Jul ’21, +0.46pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.80%

(-0.79pp From Jul ’21, +1.18pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 40.05%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.33%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8.68%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.90%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 3.98%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.24%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.86%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.53%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.43%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s July Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives will likely retain majority in the next parliament with a majority of 48 seats. Also, the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 357 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+SDLP+GRN+AP)‘s 286 by 71.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 349 Seats

(-11 From Jun ’21, -19 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 213 Seats

(+8 From Jun ’21, +10 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 55 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, +7 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 5 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.27%

(-1.66pp From Jun ’21, -2.36pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 32.31%

(-0.06pp From Jun ’21, +0.15pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8.19%

(+0.72pp From Jun ’21, -3.64pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.47%

(-0.24pp From Jun ’21, +2.79pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.65%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, +0.77pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.55%

(+0.22pp From Jun ’21, -0.46pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.86%

(+0.14pp From Jun ’21, +0.38pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.11%

(-0.19pp From Jun ’21, +0.05pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 5.59%

(+0.78pp From Jun ’21, +1.97pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.76%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 32.87%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 9.14%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.57%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.73%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.11%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.87%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.11%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.84%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 June Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JUNE ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives will retain majority in the next parliament with a big majority of 70 seats. Also, the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 368 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+SDLP+GRN+AP)‘s 274 by 94.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 360 Seats

(+18 From May ’21, -8 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 205 Seats

(-21 From May ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 54 Seats

(+1 From May ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 8 Seats

(+2 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7 Seats

(-1 From May ’21, -4 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 4 Seats

(-1 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 1 Seat

(-1 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(-1 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.93%

(+0.77pp From May ’21, -0.70pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 32.37%

(-2.78pp From May ’21, +0.21pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.47%

(+0.61pp From May ’21, -4.36pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.71%

(+0.49pp From May ’21, +3.03pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.36%

(+0.14pp From May ’21, +0.48pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.33%

(-0.02pp From Apr ’21, -0.68pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.72%

(-0.19pp From May ’21, +0.24pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.30%

(-0.10pp From May ’21, +0.24pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.81%

(+1.08pp From May ’21, +1.19pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 43.23%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 32.78%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8.30%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.78%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.41%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.04%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.73%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.30%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.43%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are likely to be retaining majority in the next parliament with a majority of 28 seats. Also, the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 346 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+AP+SDLP+GRN)‘s 297 by 49.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 339 Seats

(-3 From Apr ’21, -26 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 226 Seats

(+4 From Apr ’21, +23 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 53 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’21, +5 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(+1 From Apr ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 6 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 5 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.16%

(+0.09pp From Apr ’21, -1.47pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.15%

(+0.42pp From Apr ’21, +2.99pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.86%

(+0.27pp From Apr ’21, -4.97pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.22%

(+0.22pp From Apr ’21, +2.54pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.22%

(-0.22pp From Apr ’21, +0.34pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.35%

(-0.06pp From Apr ’21, -0.66pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.91%

(-0.82pp From Apr ’21, +0.43pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.40%

(-0.73pp From Apr ’21, +0.34pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.73%

(+0.83pp From Apr ’21, +0.11pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.24%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.41%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.57%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.26%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.25%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.06%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.92%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.41%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.88%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gn6n8aOQiDOZ9sFV2D_oHt3gllKZ8KJy47CFIVlrZ3c/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom Scotland General Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in the United Kingdom(UK) Scotland, we are projecting that the Scottish Nationals could possibly gain majority in the next parliament with a majority of 1 seat at the most likeliest outcome. Also, the potential Pro-Independence Alliance(SNP+GRN+ALBA) will have a absolute majority with 76 seats, after being ahead of potential Anti-Independence Alliance(CON+LAB+LD+AFU+RUK+UKIP)‘s 53 by 23 seats.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 65 Seats

(+2 From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 28 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 20 Seats

(-4 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 11 Seats

(+5 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

Scotland Party(ALBA / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

All For Unity(AFU / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

-Proportional(=Regional) Vote Share Projection

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 37.81%

(-3.91pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 22.32%

(-0.61pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 17.61%

(-1.46pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 10.01%

(+3.43pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 5.92%

(+0.70pp From Last Election)

Scotland Party(ALBA / Big Tent) : 3.10%

(NEW PARTY)

All For Unity(AFU / Big Tent) : 0.81%

(NEW PARTY)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0.30%

(NEW PARTY)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.08%

(-1.95pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.04%

(-0.41pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 48.75%

(+2.25pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 21.27%

(-0.75pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 20.77%

(-1.79pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.92%

(-0.90pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1.22%

(+0.64pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.07%

(+0.55pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_xLi0yWCmSEB_kgaQ-7GG3e_xgMWG4dcGyibx9qaL8Y/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 April Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s April Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are very likely to be retaining majority in the next parliament with a majority of 34 seats. Also, the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 349 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+AP+SDLP+GRN)‘s 294 by 55.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 342 Seats

(+5 From Mar ’21, -23 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 222 Seats

(-6 From Mar ’21, +19 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 54 Seats

(+2 From Mar ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7 Seats

(-1 From Mar ’21, -4 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 6 Seats

(+1 From Mar ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 6 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.07%

(+1.00pp From Mar ’21, -1.56pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 34.73%

(-0.93pp From Mar ’21, +2.57pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.59%

(+0.22pp From Mar ’21, -5.24pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.00%

(+0.44pp From Mar ’21, +2.32pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.44%

(+0.47pp From Mar ’21, +0.56pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 1.73%

(+0.13pp From Mar ’21, +1.25pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.41%

(-0.05pp From Mar ’21, -0.60pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 1.13%

(+0.40pp From Mar ’21, +1.07pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.90%

(-1.68pp From Mar ’21, -0.72pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.45%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.24%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.33%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.08%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.51%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.16%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 1.15%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.76%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.32%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FX-r1wsPrevLkXCJ7BMibNCMTgie9ZFPtPjqMmAZuvQ/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 March Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are likely to be retaining majority in the next parliament with a majority of 24 seats. Also, the the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 344 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+AP+SDLP+GRN)‘s 298 by 46.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 337 Seats

(+28 From Feb ’21, -28 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 228 Seats

(-26 From Feb ’21, +25 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 52 Seats

(-3 From Feb ’21, +4 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 6 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)


-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.07%

(+2.20pp From Feb ’21, -2.56pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.66%

(-1.21pp From Feb ’21, +3.50pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.37%

(+0.38pp From Feb ’21, -5.46pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 4.56%

(+0.89pp From Feb ’21, +1.88pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 3.97%

(-0.63pp From Feb ’21, +0.09pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 1.60%

(-0.06pp From Feb ’21, +1.12pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.46%

(+0.47pp From Feb ’21, -0.55pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.73%

(+0.03pp From Feb ’21, +0.67pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.58%

(-2.07pp From Feb ’21, +0.96pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.80%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 36.50%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.14%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 4.66%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.07%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.26%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.75%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.71%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.11%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UIsM18XFC03VHt3aiqBT0I3GqS-QZlMhB-q71QgdeY4/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/