South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 12/28 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

12/28 ’21 POLLING FOLLOWER

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 42.58%

(+0.09pp From 12/27 ’21, +1.49pp From Last Election)

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 42.44%

(+0.15pp From 12/27 ’21, +11.55pp From Last Election)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 6.17%

(+0.15pp From 12/27 ’21, -15.24pp From Last Election)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 4.34%

(-0.33pp From 12/27 ’21, -1.84pp From Last Election)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 0.63%

(-0.30pp From 12/27 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : 0.58%

(+0.03pp From 12/27 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 3.26%

(+0.21pp From 12/27 ’21, +2.83pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

-Age Projections

~20s – YOON 36.04%, LEE 32.85%, AHN 13.05%, SIM 10.86%, HUH 1.57%, KIM 0.52%, OTHERS 5.11%

30s – LEE 43.91%, YOON 36.71%, AHN 8.09%, SIM 5.50%, HUH 1.07%, KIM 0.62%, OTHERS 4.10%

40s – LEE 58.07%, YOON 29.46%, AHN 5.53%, SIM 2.87%, KIM 0.64%, HUH 0.36%, OTHERS 3.07%

50s – LEE 49.85%, YOON 39.41%, AHN 3.72%, SIM 3.08%, KIM 0.78%, HUH 0.22%, OTHERS 2.94%

60s~ – YOON 58.35%, LEE 32.48%, AHN 3.75%, SIM 2.34%, KIM 0.72%, HUH 0.22%, OTHERS 2.14%

South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 12/27 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

12/27 ’21 POLLING FOLLOWER

_DATA

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-Vote Share Projection

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 42.49%

(+0.49pp From 12/25 ’21, +1.40pp From Last Election)

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 42.29%

(-0.94pp From 12/25 ’21, +11.40pp From Last Election)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 6.02%

(+0.58pp From 12/25 ’21, -15.39pp From Last Election)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 4.67%

(+0.19pp From 12/25 ’21, -1.51pp From Last Election)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 0.93%

(-0.05pp From 12/25 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : 0.55%

(-0.08pp From 12/25 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 3.05%

(-0.19pp From 12/25 ’21, +2.62pp From Last Election)

_TREND

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is ebb3b8ec84a0-ec97aceba1a0eca1b0ec82ac-eca285ed95a9_12.272.jpg

_AGE

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is ebb3b8ec84a0-ec97aceba1a0eca1b0ec82ac-eca285ed95a9_12.273.jpg

-Age Projections

~20s – YOON 35.72%, LEE 32.27%, SIM 12.35%, AHN 12.35%, HUH 2.43%, KIM 0.56%, OTHERS 4.32%

30s – LEE 44.36%, YOON 35.57%, AHN 8.22%, SIM 5.62%, HUH 1.63%, KIM 0.56%, OTHERS 4.04%

40s – LEE 58.43%, YOON 28.88%, AHN 4.79%, SIM 3.23%, KIM 0.82%, HUH 0.53%, OTHERS 3.32%

50s – LEE 49.27%, YOON 39.85%, SIM 3.52%, AHN 3.28%, KIM 0.79%, HUH 0.36%, OTHERS 2.94%

60s~ – YOON 58.51%, LEE 32.05%, AHN 3.52%, SIM 2.37%, KIM 1.01%, HUH 0.36%, OTHERS 2.18%

South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 12/25 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

12/25 ’21 POLLING FOLLOWER

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 43.23%

(-3.49pp From 11/30 ’21, +12.34pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 42.00%

(+1.49pp From 11/30 ’21, +0.91pp From Last Election)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 5.44%

(+0.96pp From 11/30 ’21, -15.97pp From Last Election)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 4.48%

(-0.04pp From 11/30 ’21, -1.70pp From Last Election)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 0.98%

(+0.60pp From 11/30 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : 0.63%

(+0.05pp From 11/30 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 3.24%

(+0.43pp From 11/30 ’21, +2.81pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

-Age Projections

~20s – YOON 37.84%, LEE 32.08%, SIM 11.79%, AHN 11.05%, HUH 2.27%, KIM 0.53%, OTHERS 4.44%

30s – LEE 43.83%, YOON 36.73%, AHN 7.88%, SIM 5.20%, HUH 1.74%, KIM 0.58%, OTHERS 4.04%

40s – LEE 58.07%, YOON 29.67%, AHN 4.59%, SIM 3.15%, KIM 0.77%, HUH 0.67%, OTHERS 3.08%

50s – LEE 49.31%, YOON 40.74%, AHN 3.29%, SIM 3.07%, KIM 0.72%, HUH 0.25%, OTHERS 2.62%

60s~ – YOON 59.06%, LEE 31.74%, AHN 3.39%, SIM 2.17%, KIM 0.96%, HUH 0.38%, OTHERS 2.30%

South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 December Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

DECEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s December Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that Yoon Seok-youl now leads Lee Jae-myung slightly but however it is still a Key Race. Ahn Cheol-soo and Sim Sang-jung follow as 3rd tiers.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 46.72%

(+6.94pp From Nov ’21, +15.83pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 40.51%

(+1.02pp From Nov ’21, -0.58pp From Last Election)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 4.52%

(+0.16pp From Nov ’21, -1.66pp From Last Election)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 4.48%

(+0.08pp From Nov ’21, -16.93pp From Last Election)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : 0.58%

(-0.13pp From Nov ’21, NEW PARTY)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 0.38%

(NEW ENTRY, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 2.81%

(-8.45pp From Nov ’21, +2.38pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

DJ​(Daejeon) – ​LEE +0.93pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

GY​(Gyeonggi) – ​YOON +1.32pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

IN​(Incheon) – ​YOON +2.05pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

SU​(Seoul) – ​YOON +6.90pp

JJ(Jeju) – ​LEE +8.03pp

CN​(Chungnam) – ​YOON +9.27pp

-Other Races

CB(Chungbuk) – ​YOON +11.84pp

UL​(Ulsan) – ​YOON +13.71pp

BU​(Busan) – ​YOON +17.76pp

SJ(Sejong) – ​LEE +18.01pp

GA​(Gangwon) – ​YOON +21.76pp

GN​(Gyeongnam) – ​YOON +24.47pp

GB(Gyeongbuk) – ​YOON +47.80pp

DG​(Daegu) – ​YOON +48.81pp

JB(Jeonbuk) – ​LEE +53.08pp

JN(Jeonnam) – ​LEE +55.00pp

GW(Gwangju) – ​LEE +61.00pp

_GENERAL ELECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 43.16%

(-2.41pp From Nov ’21, +9.32pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 37.62%

(+2.12pp From Nov ’21, +4.26pp From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 6.39%

(-0.12pp From Nov ’21, -0.41pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.23%

(+0.10pp From Nov ’21, -0.21pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 5.01%

(+0.14pp From Nov ’21, -4.66pp From Last Election)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.10%

(-0.07pp From Nov ’21, NEW PARTY)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.05%

(-0.08pp From Nov ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.44%

(+0.32pp From Nov ’21, -8.57pp From Last Election)

_PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 41.90%

(+0.46pp From Nov ’21, -14.30pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 58.10%

(-0.46pp From Nov ’21, +14.30pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 November Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

NOVEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s November Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close between Yoon Seok-youl and Lee Jae-myung for the next presidency. Ahn Cheol-soo and Sim Sang-jung follow as 3rd tiers, Kim Dong-yeon is back behind at 5th place yet.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 39.78%

(-7.69pp From Oct ’21, +8.89pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 39.49%

(-5.85pp From Oct ’21, -1.60pp From Last Election)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 4.40%

(NEW ENTRY, -17.01pp From Last Election)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 4.36%

(NEW ENTRY, -1.82pp From Last Election)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : 0.71%

(NEW ENTRY, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 11.26%

(+4.07pp From Oct ’21, +10.83pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

SU​(Seoul) – ​YOON +0.89pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

DJ​(Daejeon) – ​LEE +4.02pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

IN​(Incheon) – ​LEE +4.81pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

CN​(Chungnam) – ​YOON +5.42pp

GY​(Gyeonggi) – ​LEE +5.76pp

UL​(Ulsan) – ​YOON +7.43pp

CB(Chungbuk) – ​YOON 7.75pp

-Other Races

BU​(Busan) – ​YOON +11.20pp

GA​(Gangwon) – ​YOON +12.44pp

JJ(Jeju) – ​LEE +14.53pp

GN​(Gyeongnam) – ​YOON +16.65pp

SJ(Sejong) – ​LEE +19.70pp

GB(Gyeongbuk) – ​YOON +40.93pp

DG​(Daegu) – ​YOON +42.95pp

JN(Jeonnam) – ​LEE +49.31pp

JB(Jeonbuk) – ​LEE +50.44pp

GW(Gwangju) – ​LEE +57.65pp

_NATIONAL SUPPORT RATING

-Rating

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 33.23%

(+5.60pp From Oct ’21 – Ha Tae-keung, Ahn Sang-soo’s Numbers Included)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 31.74%

(-0.58pp From Oct ’21 – Choo Mi-ae, Park Yong-jin’s Numbers Included)

Hong Jun-pyo(PPP / Center-Right) : 19.28%

(+1.33pp From Oct ’21 – Choi Jae-hyung’s Numbers Included)

Yoo Seong-min(PPP / Center-Right) : 3.51%

(+0.69pp From Oct ’21)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 3.30%

(+1.79pp From Oct ’21 – Lee Jeong-mi’s Numbers Included)

Won Hee-ryong(PPP / Center-Right) : 3.19%

(+2.62pp From Oct ’21)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 2.13%

(+0.83pp From Oct ’21)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 3.62%

(-12.45pp From Sep ’21 – Lee Nak-yon, Hwang Kyo-ahn, Kim Dong-yeon’s Numbers Included)

_PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 39.45%

(-0.62pp From Oct ’21, -16.75pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 60.55%

(+0.62pp From Oct ’21, +16.75pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 October Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

OCTOBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s October Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close once again between Yoon Seok-youl and Lee Jae-myung for the next presidency.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 47.47%

(-1.23pp From Sep ’21, -4.97pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 45.34%

(+2.13pp From Sep ’21, -1.92pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 7.19%

(-0.90pp From Sep ’21, +6.89pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

DJ​(Daejeon) – ​LEE +0.68pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

IN​(Incheon) – ​LEE +0.87pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

GY​(Gyeonggi) – ​LEE +2.83pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

SU​(Seoul) – ​YOON +4.14pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

UL​(Ulsan) – ​YOON +7.07pp

CN​(Chungnam) – ​YOON +7.17pp

CB(Chungbuk) – ​YOON 7.32pp

-Other Races

GA​(Gangwon) – ​YOON +11.87pp

JJ(Jeju) – ​LEE +12.61pp

BU​(Busan) – ​YOON +12.88pp

GN​(Gyeongnam) – ​YOON +14.67pp

SJ(Sejong) – ​LEE +15.08pp

GB(Gyeongbuk) – ​YOON +38.78pp

JN(Jeonnam) – ​LEE +40.09pp

DG​(Daegu) – ​YOON +41.33pp

GW(Gwangju) – ​LEE +44.84pp

JB(Jeonbuk) – ​LEE +51.37pp

_NATIONAL SUPPORT RATING

-Rating

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 29.80%

(+1.27pp From Sep ’21)

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 27.40%

(-1.98pp From Sep ’21)

Hong Jun-pyo(PPP / Center-Right) : 16.52%

(+6.87pp From Sep ’21)

Lee Nak-yon(DPK / Lean-Left) : 13.45%

(-0.67pp From Sep ’21)

Yoo Seong-min(PPP / Center-Right) : 2.82%

(-0.63pp From Sep ’21)

Choo Mi-ae(DPK / Lean-Left) : 2.13%

(-0.67pp From Sep ’21)

Ahn Cheol-soo(PP / Lean-Right) : 1.50%

(-0.83pp From Sep ’21)

Choi Jae-hyung(PPP / Center-Right) : 1.43%

(-1.70pp From Sep ’21)

Sim Sang-jung(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.36%

(-0.18pp From Sep ’21)

Hwang Kyo-ahn(PPP / Right-wing) : 0.72%

(+0.27pp From Sep ’21)

Won Hee-ryong(PPP / Center-Right) : 0.57%

(-0.05pp From Sep ’21)

Park Yong-jin(DPK / Center-Left) : 0.39%

(+0.00pp From Sep ’21)

Kim Dong-yeon(IND TK / Center) : 0.37%

(+0.19pp From Sep ’21)

Ha Tae-keung(PPP / Lean-Right) : 0.17%

(+0.06pp From Sep ’21)

Lee Jeong-mi(JPK / Center-Left) : 0.15%

(NEW ENTRY)

Ahn Sang-soo(PPP / Center-Right) : 0.06%

(NEW ENTRY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.16%

(-2.16pp From Sep ’21)

_PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 40.07%

(-0.21pp From Sep ’21, -16.13pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 59.93%

(+0.21pp From Sep ’21, +16.13pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2021 October Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

OCTOBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s October Projection in South Korea, People Power will have the supermajority and the Democrats will only manage to take less than 100 seats. Continuing on, People Party is at course to increase quite many seats, Justice Party is steady on the seat level but down on the vote share level, Open Democrats are expected to increase few seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From May ’21)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 222 Seats

(-2 From Sep ’21, +119 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 57 Seats

(+2 From Sep ’21, -123 From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10 Seats

(+1 From Sep ’21, +7 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 6 Seats

(-1 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods’ Party(PPL / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 49.58%

(+0.75pp From Sep ’21, +15.74pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 27.47%

(-0.21pp From Sep ’21, -7.72pp From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 8.85%

(+0.58pp From Sep ’21, +2.05pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 6.02%

(-0.49pp From Sep ’21, -3.65pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.17%

(-0.15pp From Sep ’21, -0.27pp From Last Election)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.13%

(+0.05pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.08%

(-0.03pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.70%

(-0.50pp From Sep ’21, -8.21pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 57.34%

(-0.18pp From Sep ’21, +15.88pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 40.33%

(+0.50pp From Sep ’21, -9.58pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.01%

(-0.10pp From Sep ’21, -0.70pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.33%

(-0.21pp From Sep ’21, -5.49pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 40.07%

(-0.21pp From Sep ’21, -16.13pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 59.93%

(+0.21pp From Sep ’21, +16.13pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROEJCTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 42.93%

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 38.87%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 6.54%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.64%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 3.86%

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.18%

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.11%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.87%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 42.07%

Disapproval : 57.93% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

SEPTEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that Yoon Seok-youl is now slightly ahead of Lee Jae-myung for the next presidency, but it obviously remains as Key Race.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 48.70%

(-1.10pp From Aug ’21, -3.74pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 43.21%

(-2.28pp From Aug ’21, -4.05pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 8.09%

(+3.38pp From Aug ’21, +7.79pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCEWIDE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

DJ​(Daejeon) – ​Yoon +0.76%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

GY​(Gyeonggi) – ​Yoon +1.04%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

IN​(Incheon) – ​Yoon +2.91%p <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

SU​(Seoul) – ​Yoon +7.79%p

UL​(Ulsan) – ​Yoon +8.22%p

CN​(Chungnam) – ​Yoon +8.25%p

CB(Chungbuk) – ​Yoon +8.40%p

JJ(Jeju) – ​Lee +9.42%p

-Other Races

SJ(Sejong) – ​Lee +13.35%p

BU​(Busan) – ​Yoon +14.02%p

GA​(Gangwon) – ​Yoon +15.07%p

GN​(Gyeongnam) – ​Yoon +15.50%p

JN(Jeonnam) – ​Lee +34.05%p

GB(Gyeongbuk) – ​Yoon +37.91%p

GW(Gwangju) – ​Lee +38.55%p

DG​(Daegu) – ​Yoon +40.62%p

JB(Jeonbuk) – ​Lee +45.78%p

_NATIONAL SUPPORT RATING

-Rating

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 29.35%

(-1.86pp From Aug ’21)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 28.28%

(+0.78pp From Aug ’21)

Lee Nak-yon(DPK / Lean-Left) : 14.12%

(-2.92pp From Aug ’21)

Hong Jun-pyo(PPP / Center-Right) : 9.65%

(+5.25pp From Aug ’21)

Yoo Seong-min(PPP / Center-Right) : 3.45%

(+0.92pp From Aug ’21)

Choi Jae-hyung(PPP / Center-Right) : 3.13%

(-2.25pp From Aug ’21)

Choo Mi-ae(DPK / Lean-Left) : 2.80%

(-1.04pp From Aug ’21)

Ahn Cheol-soo(PP / Lean-Right) : 2.33%

(+0.95pp From Aug ’21)

Chung Sye-kyun(DPK / Lean-Left) : 1.87%

(-0.03pp From Aug ’21)

Sim Sang-jung(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.54%

(+0.83pp From Aug ’21)

Won Hee-ryong(PPP / Center-Right) : 0.62%

(+0.15pp From Aug ’21)

Hwang Kyo-ahn(PPP / Right-wing) : 0.45%

(+0.22pp From Aug ’21)

Park Yong-jin(DPK / Center-Left) : 0.39%

(-0.21pp From Aug ’21)

Yoon Hee-sook(PPP / Lean-Right) : 0.30%

(-0.32pp From Aug ’21)

Kim Doo-kwan(DPK / Lean-Left) : 0.25%

(+0.08pp From Aug ’21)

Kim Dong-yeon(IND / Center) : 0.18%

(NEW ENTRY)

Ha Tae-keung(PPP / Lean-Right) : 0.11%

(-0.13pp From Aug ’21)

Park Jin(PPP / Center-Right) : 0.03%

(NEW ENTRY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.15%

(-0.63pp From Aug ’21)

_PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 40.28%

(-2.19pp From Aug ’21, -15.92pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 59.72%

(+2.19pp From Aug ’21, +15.92pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2021 September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

SEPTEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in South Korea, People Power will have the supermajority and the Democrats will only manage to take less than 100 seats. Continuing on, People Party is at course to increase quite many seats, Justice Party is up on the seat level but not on the vote share level, Open Democrats are expected to increase few seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From May ’21)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 224 Seats

(+13 From Aug ’21, +121 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 55 Seats

(-10 From Aug ’21, -125 From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 9 Seats

(-1 From Aug ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Aug ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats

(-2 From Aug ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 48.83%

(+3.10pp From Aug ’21, +14.99pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 27.68%

(-0.57pp From Aug ’21, -7.51pp From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 8.27%

(-1.02pp From Aug ’21, +1.47pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 6.51%

(-0.26pp From Aug ’21, -3.16pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.32%

(-1.03pp From Aug ’21, -0.12pp From Last Election)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.11%

(-0.02pp From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.08%

(-0.05pp From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.20%

(-0.15pp From Aug ’21, -7.71pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 57.52%

(+2.15pp From Aug ’21, +16.06pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 39.83%

(-1.95pp From Aug ’21, -10.08pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.11%

(-0.07pp From Aug ’21, -0.60pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.54%

(-0.13pp From Aug ’21, -5.28pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 40.28%

(-2.19pp From Aug ’21, -15.92pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 59.72%

(+2.19pp From Aug ’21, +15.92pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROEJCTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 42.27%

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 39.16%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 6.10%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.80%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 4.17%

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.16%

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.11%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.23%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 42.28%

Disapproval : 57.72% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 August Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

AUGUST ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that it is too close to call between Yoon Seok-youl & Lee Jae-myung for the next presidency.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 49.80%

(+1.61pp From Jul ’21, -2.64pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 45.49%

(+0.29pp From Jul ’21, -1.77pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 4.71%

(-1.90pp From Jul ’21, +4.41pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCEWIDE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

IN​(Incheon) – ​Yoon +0.41%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

GY​(Gyeonggi) – ​Lee +1.58%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

DJ​(Daejeon) – ​Lee +1.97%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

SU​(Seoul) – ​Yoon +5.60%p

CN​(Chungnam) – ​Yoon +5.97%p

CB(Chungbuk) – ​Yoon +6.14%p

JJ(Jeju) – ​Lee +8.26%p

-Other Races

UL​(Ulsan) – ​Yoon +10.26%p

BU​(Busan) – ​Yoon +16.15%p

SJ(Sejong) – ​Lee +16.46%p

GA​(Gangwon) – ​Yoon +16.83%p

GN​(Gyeongnam) – ​Yoon +18.15%p

JN(Jeonnam) – ​Lee +30.99%p

GW(Gwangju) – ​Lee +35.24%p

GB(Gyeongbuk) – ​Yoon +36.64%p

DG​(Daegu) – ​Yoon +38.64%p

JB(Jeonbuk) – ​Lee +43.05%p

_PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 42.47%

(+1.24pp From Jul ’21, -13.73pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 57.53%

(-1.24pp From Jul ’21, +13.73pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard