South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 October Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

OCTOBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s October Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close once again between Yoon Seok-youl and Lee Jae-myung for the next presidency.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 47.47%

(-1.23pp From Sep ’21, -4.97pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 45.34%

(+2.13pp From Sep ’21, -1.92pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 7.19%

(-0.90pp From Sep ’21, +6.89pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

DJ​(Daejeon) – ​LEE +0.68pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

IN​(Incheon) – ​LEE +0.87pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

GY​(Gyeonggi) – ​LEE +2.83pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

SU​(Seoul) – ​YOON +4.14pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

UL​(Ulsan) – ​YOON +7.07pp

CN​(Chungnam) – ​YOON +7.17pp

CB(Chungbuk) – ​YOON 7.32pp

-Other Races

GA​(Gangwon) – ​YOON +11.87pp

JJ(Jeju) – ​LEE +12.61pp

BU​(Busan) – ​YOON +12.88pp

GN​(Gyeongnam) – ​YOON +14.67pp

SJ(Sejong) – ​LEE +15.08pp

GB(Gyeongbuk) – ​YOON +38.78pp

JN(Jeonnam) – ​LEE +40.09pp

DG​(Daegu) – ​YOON +41.33pp

GW(Gwangju) – ​LEE +44.84pp

JB(Jeonbuk) – ​LEE +51.37pp

_NATIONAL SUPPORT RATING

-Rating

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 29.80%

(+1.27pp From Sep ’21)

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 27.40%

(-1.98pp From Sep ’21)

Hong Jun-pyo(PPP / Center-Right) : 16.52%

(+6.87pp From Sep ’21)

Lee Nak-yon(DPK / Lean-Left) : 13.45%

(-0.67pp From Sep ’21)

Yoo Seong-min(PPP / Center-Right) : 2.82%

(-0.63pp From Sep ’21)

Choo Mi-ae(DPK / Lean-Left) : 2.13%

(-0.67pp From Sep ’21)

Ahn Cheol-soo(PP / Lean-Right) : 1.50%

(-0.83pp From Sep ’21)

Choi Jae-hyung(PPP / Center-Right) : 1.43%

(-1.70pp From Sep ’21)

Sim Sang-jung(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.36%

(-0.18pp From Sep ’21)

Hwang Kyo-ahn(PPP / Right-wing) : 0.72%

(+0.27pp From Sep ’21)

Won Hee-ryong(PPP / Center-Right) : 0.57%

(-0.05pp From Sep ’21)

Park Yong-jin(DPK / Center-Left) : 0.39%

(+0.00pp From Sep ’21)

Kim Dong-yeon(IND TK / Center) : 0.37%

(+0.19pp From Sep ’21)

Ha Tae-keung(PPP / Lean-Right) : 0.17%

(+0.06pp From Sep ’21)

Lee Jeong-mi(JPK / Center-Left) : 0.15%

(NEW ENTRY)

Ahn Sang-soo(PPP / Center-Right) : 0.06%

(NEW ENTRY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.16%

(-2.16pp From Sep ’21)

_PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 40.07%

(-0.21pp From Sep ’21, -16.13pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 59.93%

(+0.21pp From Sep ’21, +16.13pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2021 October Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

OCTOBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s October Projection in South Korea, People Power will have the supermajority and the Democrats will only manage to take less than 100 seats. Continuing on, People Party is at course to increase quite many seats, Justice Party is steady on the seat level but down on the vote share level, Open Democrats are expected to increase few seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From May ’21)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 222 Seats

(-2 From Sep ’21, +119 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 57 Seats

(+2 From Sep ’21, -123 From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10 Seats

(+1 From Sep ’21, +7 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 6 Seats

(-1 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods’ Party(PPL / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 49.58%

(+0.75pp From Sep ’21, +15.74pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 27.47%

(-0.21pp From Sep ’21, -7.72pp From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 8.85%

(+0.58pp From Sep ’21, +2.05pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 6.02%

(-0.49pp From Sep ’21, -3.65pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.17%

(-0.15pp From Sep ’21, -0.27pp From Last Election)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.13%

(+0.05pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.08%

(-0.03pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.70%

(-0.50pp From Sep ’21, -8.21pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 57.34%

(-0.18pp From Sep ’21, +15.88pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 40.33%

(+0.50pp From Sep ’21, -9.58pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.01%

(-0.10pp From Sep ’21, -0.70pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.33%

(-0.21pp From Sep ’21, -5.49pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 40.07%

(-0.21pp From Sep ’21, -16.13pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 59.93%

(+0.21pp From Sep ’21, +16.13pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROEJCTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 42.93%

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 38.87%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 6.54%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.64%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 3.86%

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.18%

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.11%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.87%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 42.07%

Disapproval : 57.93% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

SEPTEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that Yoon Seok-youl is now slightly ahead of Lee Jae-myung for the next presidency, but it obviously remains as Key Race.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 48.70%

(-1.10pp From Aug ’21, -3.74pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 43.21%

(-2.28pp From Aug ’21, -4.05pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 8.09%

(+3.38pp From Aug ’21, +7.79pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCEWIDE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

DJ​(Daejeon) – ​Yoon +0.76%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

GY​(Gyeonggi) – ​Yoon +1.04%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

IN​(Incheon) – ​Yoon +2.91%p <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

SU​(Seoul) – ​Yoon +7.79%p

UL​(Ulsan) – ​Yoon +8.22%p

CN​(Chungnam) – ​Yoon +8.25%p

CB(Chungbuk) – ​Yoon +8.40%p

JJ(Jeju) – ​Lee +9.42%p

-Other Races

SJ(Sejong) – ​Lee +13.35%p

BU​(Busan) – ​Yoon +14.02%p

GA​(Gangwon) – ​Yoon +15.07%p

GN​(Gyeongnam) – ​Yoon +15.50%p

JN(Jeonnam) – ​Lee +34.05%p

GB(Gyeongbuk) – ​Yoon +37.91%p

GW(Gwangju) – ​Lee +38.55%p

DG​(Daegu) – ​Yoon +40.62%p

JB(Jeonbuk) – ​Lee +45.78%p

_NATIONAL SUPPORT RATING

-Rating

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 29.35%

(-1.86pp From Aug ’21)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 28.28%

(+0.78pp From Aug ’21)

Lee Nak-yon(DPK / Lean-Left) : 14.12%

(-2.92pp From Aug ’21)

Hong Jun-pyo(PPP / Center-Right) : 9.65%

(+5.25pp From Aug ’21)

Yoo Seong-min(PPP / Center-Right) : 3.45%

(+0.92pp From Aug ’21)

Choi Jae-hyung(PPP / Center-Right) : 3.13%

(-2.25pp From Aug ’21)

Choo Mi-ae(DPK / Lean-Left) : 2.80%

(-1.04pp From Aug ’21)

Ahn Cheol-soo(PP / Lean-Right) : 2.33%

(+0.95pp From Aug ’21)

Chung Sye-kyun(DPK / Lean-Left) : 1.87%

(-0.03pp From Aug ’21)

Sim Sang-jung(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.54%

(+0.83pp From Aug ’21)

Won Hee-ryong(PPP / Center-Right) : 0.62%

(+0.15pp From Aug ’21)

Hwang Kyo-ahn(PPP / Right-wing) : 0.45%

(+0.22pp From Aug ’21)

Park Yong-jin(DPK / Center-Left) : 0.39%

(-0.21pp From Aug ’21)

Yoon Hee-sook(PPP / Lean-Right) : 0.30%

(-0.32pp From Aug ’21)

Kim Doo-kwan(DPK / Lean-Left) : 0.25%

(+0.08pp From Aug ’21)

Kim Dong-yeon(IND / Center) : 0.18%

(NEW ENTRY)

Ha Tae-keung(PPP / Lean-Right) : 0.11%

(-0.13pp From Aug ’21)

Park Jin(PPP / Center-Right) : 0.03%

(NEW ENTRY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.15%

(-0.63pp From Aug ’21)

_PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 40.28%

(-2.19pp From Aug ’21, -15.92pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 59.72%

(+2.19pp From Aug ’21, +15.92pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2021 September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

SEPTEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in South Korea, People Power will have the supermajority and the Democrats will only manage to take less than 100 seats. Continuing on, People Party is at course to increase quite many seats, Justice Party is up on the seat level but not on the vote share level, Open Democrats are expected to increase few seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From May ’21)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 224 Seats

(+13 From Aug ’21, +121 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 55 Seats

(-10 From Aug ’21, -125 From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 9 Seats

(-1 From Aug ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Aug ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats

(-2 From Aug ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 48.83%

(+3.10pp From Aug ’21, +14.99pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 27.68%

(-0.57pp From Aug ’21, -7.51pp From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 8.27%

(-1.02pp From Aug ’21, +1.47pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 6.51%

(-0.26pp From Aug ’21, -3.16pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.32%

(-1.03pp From Aug ’21, -0.12pp From Last Election)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.11%

(-0.02pp From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.08%

(-0.05pp From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.20%

(-0.15pp From Aug ’21, -7.71pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 57.52%

(+2.15pp From Aug ’21, +16.06pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 39.83%

(-1.95pp From Aug ’21, -10.08pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.11%

(-0.07pp From Aug ’21, -0.60pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.54%

(-0.13pp From Aug ’21, -5.28pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 40.28%

(-2.19pp From Aug ’21, -15.92pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 59.72%

(+2.19pp From Aug ’21, +15.92pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROEJCTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 42.27%

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 39.16%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 6.10%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.80%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 4.17%

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.16%

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.11%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.23%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 42.28%

Disapproval : 57.72% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 August Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

AUGUST ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that it is too close to call between Yoon Seok-youl & Lee Jae-myung for the next presidency.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 49.80%

(+1.61pp From Jul ’21, -2.64pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 45.49%

(+0.29pp From Jul ’21, -1.77pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 4.71%

(-1.90pp From Jul ’21, +4.41pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCEWIDE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

IN​(Incheon) – ​Yoon +0.41%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

GY​(Gyeonggi) – ​Lee +1.58%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

DJ​(Daejeon) – ​Lee +1.97%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

SU​(Seoul) – ​Yoon +5.60%p

CN​(Chungnam) – ​Yoon +5.97%p

CB(Chungbuk) – ​Yoon +6.14%p

JJ(Jeju) – ​Lee +8.26%p

-Other Races

UL​(Ulsan) – ​Yoon +10.26%p

BU​(Busan) – ​Yoon +16.15%p

SJ(Sejong) – ​Lee +16.46%p

GA​(Gangwon) – ​Yoon +16.83%p

GN​(Gyeongnam) – ​Yoon +18.15%p

JN(Jeonnam) – ​Lee +30.99%p

GW(Gwangju) – ​Lee +35.24%p

GB(Gyeongbuk) – ​Yoon +36.64%p

DG​(Daegu) – ​Yoon +38.64%p

JB(Jeonbuk) – ​Lee +43.05%p

_PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 42.47%

(+1.24pp From Jul ’21, -13.73pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 57.53%

(-1.24pp From Jul ’21, +13.73pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2021 August Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

AUGUST ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in South Korea, People Power will have the supermajority and the Democrats will only manage to take less than 100 seats. Continuing on, People Party & Open Democrats are at course to increase quite many seats, Justice Party is up on the seat level but not on the vote share level.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From May ’21)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 211 Seats

(-13 From Jul ’21, +108 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 65 Seats

(+11 From Jul ’21, -116 From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10 Seats

(+0 From Jul ’21, +7 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Jul ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 7 Seats

(+2 From Jul ’21, +4 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 45.73%

(-2.01pp From Jul ’21, +11.89pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 28.25%

(+1.42pp From Jul ’21, -6.94pp From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 9.29%

(+0.21pp From Jul ’21, +2.49pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 6.77%

(-0.19pp From Jul ’21, -2.90pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.35%

(+0.68pp From Jul ’21, +0.91pp From Last Election)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.13%

(+0.08pp From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.13%

(+0.09pp From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.35%

(-0.28pp From Jul ’21, -7.56pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 55.37%

(-2.19pp From Jul ’21, +13.91pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 41.78%

(+2.28pp From Jul ’21, -8.13pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.18%

(-0.03pp From Jul ’21, -0.53pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.67%

(-0.06pp From Jul ’21, -5.15pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 42.47%

(+1.24pp From Jul ’21, -13.73pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 57.53%

(-1.24pp From Jul ’21, +13.73pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROEJCTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 39.82%

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 39.44%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.90%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 6.83%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 4.32%

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.19%

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.19%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.31%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 44.50%

Disapproval : 55.50% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea Presidential Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s July Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that it is too close to call between Yoon Seok-youl & Lee Jae-myung for the next presidency.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(IND PPP / Center-Right) : 48.19%

(-4.25pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 45.20%

(-2.06pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 6.61%

(+6.31pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCEWIDE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

SU​(Seoul) – ​Yoon +0.19%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

GY​(Gyeonggi) – ​Lee +0.24%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

IN​(Incheon) – ​Yoon +0.96%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

DJ​(Daejeon) – ​Lee +1.51%p <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

​UL​(Ulsan) – ​Yoon +4.33%p <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

CN​(Chungnam) – ​Yoon +6.19%p

CB(Chungbuk) – ​Yoon +6.33%p

JJ(Jeju) – ​Lee +9.49%p

-Other Races

BU​(Busan) – ​Yoon +10.17%p

GN​(Gyeongnam) – ​Yoon +11.63%p

GA​(Gangwon) – ​Yoon +14.82%p

SJ(Sejong) – ​Lee +15.69%p

JN(Jeonnam) – ​Lee +26.14%p

GW(Gwangju) – ​Lee +31.08%p

JB(Jeonbuk) – ​Lee +39.33%p

GB(Gyeongbuk) – ​Yoon +39.69%p

DG​(Daegu) – ​Yoon +42.74%p

_PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 41.23%

(+2.21pp From Jun ’21, -14.97pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 58.77%

(-2.21pp From Jun ’21, +14.97pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s July Projection in South Korea, People Power will have the supermajority and the Democrats will only manage to take much fewer than 100 seats. Continuing on, People Party is on the course to increase quite many seats. Justice Party is up on the seat level but not on the vote share level and Open Democrats will also gain seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From May ’21)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 224 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +121 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 54 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, -127 From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +7 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 7 Seats

(-1 From Jun ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 47.74%

(+1.31pp From Jun ’21, +13.90pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 26.83%

(+0.54pp From Jun ’21, -8.36pp From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 9.08%

(+0.51pp From Jun ’21, +2.28pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 6.96%

(-1.20pp From Jun ’21, -2.71pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.67%

(+0.57pp From Jun ’21, +0.23pp From Last Election)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.05%

(-0.36pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.04%

(-0.25pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.63%

(-0.10pp From Jun ’21, -7.28pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 57.56%

(+0.57pp From Jun ’21, +16.10pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 39.50%

(+0.09pp From Jun ’21, -10.41pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.21%

(-0.24pp From Jun ’21, -0.50pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.73%

(-0.42pp From Jun ’21, -5.09pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 41.23%

(+2.21pp From Jun ’21, -14.97pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 58.77%

(-2.21pp From Jun ’21, +14.97pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROEJCTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 41.64%

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 38.23%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 6.75%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.23%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 4.48%

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.07%

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.06%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.54%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 43.25%

Disapproval : 56.75% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2021 June Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JUNE ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in South Korea, People Power Party will have the supermajority and the Democrats will only manage to take much fewer than 100 seats. Continuing on, People Party is on the course to increase quite many seats. Justice Party is up on the seat level but not on the vote share level. Open Democrats will also gain seats, but Progressive Party and People’s Livelihoods will not.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From May ’21)

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 224 Seats

(+0 From May ’21, +121 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 53 Seats

(+1 From May ’21, -127 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10 Seats

(-1 From May ’21, +7 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 8 Seats

(+0 From May ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats

(+0 From May ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY, NEW PARTY)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(NEW PARTY, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 46.43%

(-0.04pp From May ’21, +12.59pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 26.29%

(+0.33pp From May ’21, -8.90pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 9.59%

(-1.23pp From May ’21, +2.79pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 8.16%

(+0.48pp From May ’21, -1.51pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.10%

(+0.55pp From May ’21, -0.34pp From Last Election)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.41%

(NEW PARTY, NEW PARTY)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.29%

(NEW PARTY, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.73%

(-0.79pp From May ’21, -7.18pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 56.99%

(-0.33pp From May ’21, +15.53pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 39.41%

(+0.30pp From May ’21, -10.50pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.45%

(+0.08pp From May ’21, -0.26pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.15%

(-0.05pp From May ’21, -4.67pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 39.02%

(+4.62pp From May ’21, -17.18pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 60.98%

(-4.62pp From May ’21, +17.18pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROEJCTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 40.88%

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 37.83%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 7.20%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.66%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 5.31%

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.29%

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.21%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.63%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 41.00%

Disapproval : 59.00% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in South Korea, People’s Power Party will have the supermajority and the Democrats will only manage to take much fewer than 100 seats. Continuing on, People Party is on the course to increase many seats. Justice Party is up on the seat level but not on the vote share level. Open Democrats will also gain seats, but Progressive Party and People’s Livelihood Party will not.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From May ’21)

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 224 Seats

(+61 From Apr ’21, +121 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 52 Seats

(-50 From Apr ’21, -128 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 11 Seats

(-6 From Apr ’21, +8 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 8 Seats

(-3 From Apr ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 46.47%

(-0.13pp From Apr ’21, +12.63pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 25.96%

(+0.31pp From Apr ’21, -9.23pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10.82%

(-0.87pp From Apr ’21, +4.02pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 7.68%

(-0.22pp From Apr ’21, -1.99pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 4.55%

(+0.23pp From Apr ’21, -0.89pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.52%

(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -6.39pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 57.32%

(+1.79pp From Apr ’21, +15.86pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 39.11%

(+1.78pp From Apr ’21, -10.80pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.37%

(+0.01pp From Apr ’21, -0.34pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.20%

(-3.58pp From Apr ’21, -4.62pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 34.40%

(-1.12pp From Apr ’21, -21.80pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 65.60%

(+1.12pp From Apr ’21, +21.80pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROEJCTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 41.07%

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 37.49%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 8.15%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.07%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 5.02%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.20%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 36.28%

Disapproval : 63.72% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wMuHDlsYC8zU_8EwM8muO3_g1ugM4XbdJfVJRr0AUfk/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/