South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2021 April Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

According to Globe Elections UN’s April Projection in South Korea, People’s Power Party will be the majority party and the Democratic Party will only manage to take around 100 seats. Continuing on, People Party is at course to increase many seats. Justice Party is up on the seat level but not on the vote share level. Open Democrats and People’s Livelihood Party will also gain seats, but Progressive Party will not.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 163 Seats

(+20 From Mar ’21, +60 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 102 Seats

(-20 From Mar ’21, -78 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 17 Seats

(+3 From Mar ’21, +14 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 11 Seats

(-2 From Mar ’21, +5 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6 Seats

(-2 From Mar ’21, +3 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 1 Seat

(+1 From Mar ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 46.60%

(+7.68pp From Mar ’21, +12.76pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 25.65%

(-4.99pp From Mar ’21, -9.54pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 11.69%

(+1.56pp From Mar ’21, +4.89pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 7.90%

(-1.13pp From Mar ’21, -1.77pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 4.32%

(-2.13pp From Mar ’21, -1.12pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.84%

(-0.99pp From Mar ’21, -7.07pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 55.53%

(+8.57pp From Mar ’21, +14.07pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 37.33%

(-7.83pp From Mar ’21, -12.58pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.36%

(-0.21pp From Mar ’21, -0.35pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 5.78%

(-0.53pp From Mar ’21, -1.04pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 35.52%

(-7.65pp From Mar ’21, -20.68pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 64.48%

(+7.65pp From Mar ’21, +20.68pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROEJCTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 41.30%

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 37.14%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 8.83%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 5.18%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 4.83%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.73%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 37.43%

Disapproval : 62.57% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1COrLDJIbvNkjHpoN3IAhxTKcbG4BQUtSFRLVJiUjEDI/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

South Korea

[South Korea Seoul & Busan Mayoral By-Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Seoul & Busan of SK, we are projecting that Oh Se-hoon will defeat Park Yeong-sun to be the next mayor of Seoul and also Park Hyung-jun leads over Kim Yeong-choon as well.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seoul Vote Share Projection

Oh Se-hoon(PPP / Center-Right) : 59.98%

(+36.63pp From Last Election)

Park Yeong-sun(DPK / Lean-Left) : 35.87%

(-16.92pp From Last Election)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 1.07%

(NEW PARTY)

Shin Ji-hye(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.54%

(NEW PARTY)

Kim Jin-ah(WP / Big Tent) : 0.36%

(NEW PARTY)

Shin Ji-ye(IND / Independent) : 0.27%

(-1.40pp From Last Election)

Song Myeong-sook(JBP / Left-wing) : 0.14%

(-0.31pp From Last Election)

Oh Tae-yang(FP / Center-Left) : 0.10%

(-0.13pp From Last Election)

Lee Soo-bong(PPL / Center) : 0.07%

(-19.48pp From Last Election)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.60%

(-0.36pp From Last Election)

-Busan Vote Share Projection

Park Hyung-jun(PPP / Center-Right) : 62.21%

(+23.48pp From Last Election)

Kim Yeong-choon(DPK / Lean-Left) : 35.43%

(-19.80pp From Last Election)

Jeong Kyu-jae(LDP / Far-Right) : 1.34%

(NEW PARTY)

Son Sang-woo(FP / Center-Left) : 0.45%

(NEW PARTY)

Song Myeong-sook(JBP / Left-wing) : 0.41%

(NEW PARTY)

Bae Jun-hyeon(PPL / Center) : 0.16%

(-3.81pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1McCSaXIWa6UL02tvZ7jHuVNsaRt5coH2osrlgALqSEA/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2021 March Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in South Korea, People’s Power Party will be the largest party and the Democratic Party will only manage to take around 120 seats. Continuing on, People Party is at course to increase many seats. Justice Party is up on the seat level but not yet on the vote share level. Open Democrats will also gain seats, but People’s Livelihoods Party, and Progressive Party will not.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 143 Seats

(-4 From Feb ’21, +40 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 122 Seats

(+5 From Feb ’21, -58 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 14 Seats

(-1 From Feb ’21, +11 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 13 Seats

(+1 From Feb ’21, +7 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +5 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 38.92%

(+0.02pp From Feb ’21, +5.08pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 30.64%

(+0.74pp From Feb ’21, -4.55pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10.13%

(-1.18pp From Feb ’21, +3.33pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 9.03%

(-0.12pp From Feb ’21, -0.64pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.45%

(+0.30pp From Feb ’21, +1.01pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.83%

(+0.24pp From Feb ’21, -6.08pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 46.96%

(-0.40pp From Feb ’21, +5.50pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 45.16%

(+0.69pp From Feb ’21, -4.75pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.57%

(-0.04pp From Feb ’21, -0.14pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.31%

(-0.25pp From Feb ’21, -0.61pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-In>

Approval43.17%

(+0.48pp From Feb ’21, -13.03pp From Last Election)

Disapproval56.83%

(-0.48pp From Feb ’21, +13.03pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROEJCTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 43.05%

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 33.47%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 7.43%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.98%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 5.74%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.33%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval45.21%

Disapproval54.79% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XzWjs8DoG5KZo9ZDRm21qRtjU096_H6PS_uoV-zz2-w/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2021 February Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in South Korea, People’s Power Party will be the largest party and the Democratic Party will only manage to take around 120 seats. Continuing on, People Party is at course to increase many seats. Justice Party is also still up on the seat level but has crashed down on the vote share level, making them even lower than the last election. This is due to scandals related to Kim Jong-chul, who resigned as the leader at the previous month. Open Democrats, People’s Livelihoods Party will gain seats, but the Progressive Party will not.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 147 Seats

(-5 From Jan ’21, +44 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 117 Seats

(+9 From Jan ’21, -63 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 15 Seats

(+2 From Jan ’21, +12 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 12 Seats

(-5 From Jan ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +5 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Jan ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jan ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 38.90%

(+2.34pp From Jan ’21, +5.06pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 29.90%

(+3.33pp From Jan ’21, -5.29pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 11.31%

(-0.25pp From Jan ’21, +4.51pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 9.15%

(-5.03pp From Jan ’21, -0.52pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.15%

(-0.70pp From Jan ’21, +0.71pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.59%

(+0.31pp From Jan ’21, -6.32pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 47.36%

(-0.37pp From Jan ’21, +5.90pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 44.47%

(+2.11pp From Jan ’21, -5.44pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.61%

(-1.07pp From Jan ’21, -0.10pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.56%

(-0.67pp From Jan ’21, -0.36pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval42.69%

(+3.20pp From Jan ’21, -13.51pp From Last Election)

Disapproval57.31%

(-3.20pp From Jan ’21, +13.51pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 42.27%

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 33.65%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 8.34%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.70%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 5.86%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.18%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval44.72%

Disapproval55.28% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tycTWN9xzu2tyMHXCE0LZnute_eS3wDEK0PwBCQL0wc/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2021 January Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s January Projection in South Korea, People’s Power Party will gain the majority in the National Assembly and the Democrats will only manage to take around 100 seats. Continuing on, Justice Party and People’s Party are at course to increase many seats. Also, Open Democrats, Progressives, People’s Livelihoods Party will gain seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 152 Seats

(+17 From Dec ’20, +49 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 108 Seats

(-17 From Dec ’20, -72 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 17 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +11 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 13 Seats

(+1 From Dec ’20, +10 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(-1 From Dec ’20, +5 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 1 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +1 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 1 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +1 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, -5 From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 47.73%

(+2.10pp From Dec ’20, +6.27pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 42.36%

(-2.08pp From Dec ’20, -7.55pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 2.68%

(+0.13pp From Dec ’20, +0.97pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 7.23%

(-0.15pp From Dec ’20, +0.31pp From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 36.56%

(+1.42pp From Dec ’20, +2.72pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 26.57%

(-1.45pp From Dec ’20, -8.62pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 14.18%

(+0.62pp From Dec ’20, +4.51pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 11.56%

(+0.41pp From Dec ’20, +4.76pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.85%

(-0.92pp From Dec ’20, +1.41pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.28%

(-0.08pp From Dec ’20, -6.63pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval

Approval39.49%

(-4.00pp From Dec ’20, -16.71pp From Last Election)

Disapproval60.51%

(+4.00pp From Dec ’20, +16.71pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 41.51%

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 35.12%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 7.30%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 7.22%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.69%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.15%

-Presidential Approval

Approval41.47%

Disapproval58.53% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QogkZI25kXRXeJY-yaEY1lrO5IlK8USwV2TsIjdYX5M/

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2020 September Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

_Video

_Headline

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in South Korea, we are projecting it is too close to call between DPK and UFP but the Democrats are slightly leading UFP at this stage. In the other hands, the Justice Party, People’s Party, Open Democrats would increase the seat numbers significantly compared to the last election. We are also putting the Progressives(Jinbo Party) up to a single seat.

_Poll+Error Projection

-Seat Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 140 Seats (-7 From August, -40 From Last Election)

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 125 Seats (+5 From August, +22 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 16 Seats (+1 From August +10 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10 Seats (+1 From August, +7 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 9 Seats (+0 From August, +6 From Last Election)

Progressive/Jinbo Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seats (+0 From August, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats (+0 From August, -5 From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 47.22% (-1.00pp From August, -1.69pp From Last Election)

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 45.44% (+0.45pp From August, +3.53pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.93% (+0.29pp From August, +0.22pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 5.41% (+0.41pp From August, -1.51pp From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 38.00% (-0.35pp From August, +4.16pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 32.33% (-1.32pp From August, -2.86pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 11.15% (+0.61pp From August, +1.48pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 7.55% (+0.87pp From August, +0.75pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.64% (-0.89pp From August, +1.20pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.33% (+1.08pp From August, -6.58pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval

Approval48.31% (+1.14pp From August, -7.89pp From Last Election)

Disapproval51.69% (-1.14pp From August, +7.89pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 47.58%

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 34.38%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 5.35%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.20%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 4.49%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.00%

-Presidential Approval

Approval50.38%

Disapproval49.62% 

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KQzI6Uh8rQJ5kUTsM8K_FxTJG2iWSydDK2qQiZeqNiY/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

_Video

_Headline

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in South Korea, the Democrats will remain as the largest party, with the United Future Party following just behind. In the other hands, the Justice Party, Open Democrats, People’s Party would gain quite of seats. We are also putting the Progressives(Jinbo Party) up to 1 seat and there are still some possibilities that UFP comes over DPK.

_Poll+Error Projection

-Seat Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 147 Seats (-16 From July, -33 From Last Election)

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 120 Seats (+14 From July, +17 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 15 Seats (+3 From July, +9 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 9 Seats (-2 From July, +6 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 9 Seats (+1 From July, +6 From Last Election)

Progressive/Jinbo Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats (+0 From July, -5 From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 48.22% (-1.42pp From July, -1.69pp From Last Election)

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 44.99% (+1.87pp From July, +3.53pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.79% (+0.15pp From July, +0.08pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 5.00% (-0.60pp From July, -1.92pp From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 38.35% (+1.83pp From July, +4.51pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 33.65% (-0.78pp From July, +0.29pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 10.54% (+0.90pp From July, +0.87pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 7.53% (-1.16pp From July, +2.11pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 6.68% (-0.19pp From July, -0.12pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.25% (-0.60pp From July, -7.66pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval

Approval47.17% (-4.31pp From July, -9.03pp From Last Election)

Disapproval52.83% (+4.31pp From July, +9.03pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 47.42%

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 34.01%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 6.64%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.02%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 4.45%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.46%

-Presidential Approval

Approval49.23%

Disapproval50.77% 

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OedGyyANVLSUlUEAMw3nJLvQrcJAR7cQhitZKcElN1o/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/