Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 October Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

OCTOBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s October Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. With Donald Tusk’s return, Civic Coalition has managed to make a big bounce and is now up to just under last election. Poland 2050 is almost down to their starting point. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 184 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, -51 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 125 Seats

(-2 From Aug ’21, -9 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 64 Seats

(+0 From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 49 Seats

(+2 From Aug ’21, +38 From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 37 Seats

(-1 From Aug ’21, -12 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+1 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.71%

(-0.29pp From Sep ’21, -7.88pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 26.23%

(-1.04pp From Sep ’21, -1.10pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 14.05%

(+0.23pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 10.82%

(+0.27pp From Sep ’21, +4.01pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 7.57%

(-1.09pp From Sep ’21, -5.00pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.77%

(+0.99pp From Sep ’21, -4.79pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.53%

(+0.07pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.42%

(+0.20pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.90%

(+0.66pp From Sep ’21, -1.86pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 38.59%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 25.75%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 13.80%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.76%

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 7.77%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.87%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.54%

reement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.46%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.46%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

SEPTEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. With Donald Tusk’s return, Civic Coalition has managed to make a big bounce and is now up to around the last election. Poland 2050 is almost down to their starting point. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 184 Seats

(+16 From Aug ’21, -51 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 127 Seats

(-4 From Aug ’21, -7 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 64 Seats

(-13 From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 47 Seats

(+1 From Aug ’21, +36 From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 38 Seats

(+2 From Aug ’21, -11 From Last Election)

German Minority(MN / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(-2 From Aug ’21, -1 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(NEW ENTRY, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 36.00%

(+2.45pp From Aug ’21, -7.59pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 27.27%

(-0.47pp From Aug ’21, -0.06pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 13.82%

(-2.57pp From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 10.55%

(+1.47pp From Aug ’21, +3.74pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 8.66%

(+1.52pp From Aug ’21, -3.91pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 2.78%

(-0.71pp From Aug ’21, -5.78pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.46%

(-0.22pp From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Agreement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.22%

(NEW ENTRY, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.24%

(-1.69pp From Aug ’21, -2.52pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 38.76%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 26.67%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 13.51%

The Left(LEW / Center-Left) : 8.86%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.51%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 2.85%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.47%

reement(POR / Center-Right) : 0.24%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.13%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 August Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

AUGUST ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. With Donald Tusk’s return, Civic Coalition has managed to make a big bounce and is now up to around the last election results. Poland 2050 is down to third place once again. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 168 Seats

(+4 From Jul ’21, -67 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 131 Seats

(+43 From Jul ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 77 Seats

(-30 From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 46 Seats

(-7 From Jul ’21, +35 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 36 Seats

(-5 From Jul ’21, -13 From Last Election)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 2 Seats

(+1 From Jul ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 33.55%

(+1.02pp From Jul ’21, -10.04pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 27.74%

(+8.39pp From Jul ’21, +0.41pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 16.39%

(-5.85pp From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.08%

(-2.07pp From Jul ’21, +2.27pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 7.14%

(-1.10pp From Jul ’21, -5.43pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.49%

(-1.32pp From Jul ’21, -5.07pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.68%

(-0.05pp From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.93%

(+0.98pp From Jul ’21, -0.83pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 36.42%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 27.36%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 16.16%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 7.39%

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 7.37%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.60%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.70%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.00%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s Jul;y Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is likely to be taken by Szymon Hołownia‘s Poland 2050. Mostly due to their rise, Civic Coalition is now below 100 seats. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is now just below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 164 Seats

(-17 From Jun ’21, -71 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 107 Seats

(-6 From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 88 Seats

(+12 From Jun ’21, -46 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 53 Seats

(+9 From Jun ’21, +42 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 41 Seats

(-1 From Jun ’21, -8 From Last Election)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 32.53%

(-2.73pp From Jun ’21, -11.06pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 22.24%

(-2.48pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 19.35%

(+3.39pp From Jun ’21, -7.98pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 11.05%

(+2.03pp From Jun ’21, +4.34pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 8.24%

(-1.03pp From Jun ’21, -4.33pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.81%

(+0.50pp From Jun ’21, -3.75pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.73%

(-0.09pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.95%

(+0.41pp From Jun ’21, -0.15pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.27%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.91%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 19.06%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.06%

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 8.49%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.96%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.76%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.49%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 June Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JUNE ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is likely to be taken by Poland 2050, a new party led by Szymon Hołownia. Due to Poland 2050’s rise, Civic Coalition is now far below 100 seats. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is currently below the 5% threshold and therefore won’t be able to obtain any seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 181 Seats

(+16 From May ’21, -54 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 113 Seats

(+10 From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 76 Seats

(-12 From May ’21, -58 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 44 Seats

(-5 From May ’21, +33 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 42 Seats

(-13 From May ’21, -7 From Last Election)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+1 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.26%

(+2.64pp From May ’21, -8.33pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 24.72%

(+3.07pp From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 15.96%

(-2.96pp From May ’21, -11.37pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 9.27%

(-1.34pp From May ’21, -3.30pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.12%

(-2.22pp From May ’21, +2.31pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.31%

(+0.48pp From May ’21, -4.25pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.82%

(+0.20pp From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.54%

(+0.13pp From May ’21, -0.56pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 37.91%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 24.15%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 15.59%

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 9.47%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 7.35%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.41%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.84%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.28%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is likely to be taken by Poland 2050, a new party led by Szymon Hołownia. Mostly due to Poland 2050’s rise, Civic Coalition is now below 100 seats. On the other hand, The Left is up on the seat level but not on the vote level, and Confederation is significantly up. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore won’t have any seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 165 Seats

(+3 From Apr ’21, -70 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 103 Seats

(-3 From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 88 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, -46 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 55 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 49 Seats

(+1 From Apr ’21, +38 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Apr ’21, -1 From Last Election)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 32.62%

(+2.38pp From Apr ’21, -10.97pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.65%

(+0.16pp From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 18.92%

(+0.44pp From Apr ’21, -8.41pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 11.34%

(+0.63pp From Apr ’21, +4.53pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.61%

(+0.42pp From Apr ’21, -1.96pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.83%

(-1.07pp From Apr ’21, -4.73pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.62%

(-1.38pp From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.41%

(-1.58pp From Apr ’21, -0.69pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.27%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.26%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 18.59%

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.91%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.18%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.94%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.64%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.21%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wlnJhq1QWvIa7OS0FEXUk8N5Z5P7_eVIPsTEg89_FsM/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 April Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s April Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is projected to be taken by Poland 2050, a new party led by Szymon Hołownia. Due to Poland 2050’s rise, Civic Coalition is now below 100 seats. On the other hand, The Left is up on the seat level but not on the vote level, and Confederation is significantly up. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore will have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 162 Seats

(+5 From Mar ’21, -73 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 106 Seats

(-8 From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 88 Seats

(-3 From Mar ’21, -46 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 55 Seats

(+2 From Mar ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 48 Seats

(+4 From Mar ’21, +37 From Last Election)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 30.24%

(+0.15pp From Mar ’21, -13.35pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.49%

(-1.60pp From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 18.48%

(-0.95pp From Mar ’21, -8.85pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 10.71%

(+2.36pp From Mar ’21, +3.90pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.19%

(-0.25pp From Mar ’21, -2.38pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.90%

(+0.63pp From Mar ’21, -3.66pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 2.00%

(+0.71pp From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.99%

(-1.05pp From Mar ’21, +0.89pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 32.98%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.29%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 18.31%

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.56%

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.75%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 5.08%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 2.08%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.95%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PT0moD5HuIAXo57bs3tmfF-aCrpm9d3j7jFTt8qXo5o/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 March Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is projected to be taken by Poland 2050, a new party formed by Szymon Hołownia. Due to Poland 2050’s rise, Civic Coalition is now below 100 seats. In the other hand, The Left is up, and Confederation is still significantly up. However, Polish Coalition is below the threshold of 5% and therefore will have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 157 Seats

(-1 From Feb ’21, -78 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 114 Seats

(+16 From Feb ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 91 Seats

(-17 From Feb ’21, -43 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 53 Seats

(+8 From Feb ’21, +4 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 44 Seats

(-6 From Feb ’21, +33 From Last Election)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 30.09%

(+0.22pp From Feb ’21, -13.50pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 23.09%

(+2.11pp From Feb ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 19.43%

(-1.80pp From Feb ’21, -7.90pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.44%

(+1.36pp From Feb ’21, -2.13pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.35%

(-2.05pp From Feb ’21, +1.54pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.27%

(-0.10pp From Feb ’21, -4.29pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 1.29%

(+0.30pp From Feb ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 3.04%

(-0.04pp From Feb ’21, +1.94pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 32.88%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 22.92%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 19.29%

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.84%

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 6.84%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.44%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 1.34%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.45%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zqqraW02sT7fKvMFoELxJPNA2Stz39Ljgm0NBf585bQ/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 February Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The nearest, Civic Coalition is also down from the last election. This is due to rise of Poland 2050, a new party formed by Szymon Hołownia. In the other hand, The Left is almost steady with the last election, and Confederation is pretty significantly up. However, Polish Coalition is now below the threshold of 5% for the first time and therefore will have no seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 158 Seats

(+4 From Jan ’21, -77 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 108 Seats

(-2 From Jan ’21, -26 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 98 Seats

(+22 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 50 Seats

(+7 From Jan ’21, +39 From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 45 Seats

(-1 From Jan ’21, -4 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seats

(-32 From Jan ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 29.87%

(-1.12pp From Jan ’21, -13.72pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 21.23%

(-2.05pp From Jan ’21, -6.10pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 20.98%

(+5.13pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 10.40%

(+1.57pp From Jan ’21, +3.59pp From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 9.08%

(-0.49pp From Jan ’21, -3.49pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.37%

(-2.16pp From Jan ’21, -4.18pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.99%

(-2.03pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.08%

(+1.15pp From Jan ’21, +1.98pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 32.80%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 21.18%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 20.93%

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 9.48%

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.55%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.56%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 1.03%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.47%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/150w115Wdzz3J3yIp_U4wOYGVTipPQt11RTMPeJS06yc/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 January Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s January Projection in Poland, the United Rights will be remaining as the largest coalition in the next Sejm, but with no majority. The nearest contender, Civic Coalition is currently down slightly compared to the last election. This is due to rise of Poland 2050, a new party formed by Szymon Hołownia. In the other hand, The Left and Polish Coalition is almost steady with the last election, and Confederation is still pretty significantly up.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 154 Seats

(+5 From Dec ’20, -81 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 110 Seats

(-1 From Dec ’20, -24 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 76 Seats

(-4 From Dec ’20, NEW PARTY)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 46 Seats

(+1 From Dec ’20, -3 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 43 Seats

(+1 From Dec ’20, +32 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 32 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +2 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seats

(NEW PARTY, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 30.99%

(+1.02pp From Dec ’20, -12.60pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 23.28%

(-1.10pp From Dec ’20, -4.14pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 15.85%

(-1.68pp From Dec ’20, NEW PARTY)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 9.57%

(-0.10pp From Dec ’20, -3.00pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.83%

(-0.28pp From Dec ’20, +2.02pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 6.53%

(+0.04pp From Dec ’20, -2.02pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 3.02%

(NEW PARTY, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.93%

(-0.92pp From Dec ’20, +0.83pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 34.75%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 23.38%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 15.92%

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 10.60%

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 7.11%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.93%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 2.28%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.03%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iKOPbrazfRlc7mk_gegOAqojhhHWhi0wJsYIhOs8a7E/

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/