[Italy General Election]2021 April Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

According to Globe Elections UN’s April Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will have the majority of both chambers, after being ahead of Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement by little more than 12%p.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 54.79%

(-1.38pp From Mar ’21, +17.79pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 42.17%

(+1.66pp From Mar ’21, -15.81pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.04%

(-0.28pp From Mar ’21, -1.98pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 54.79%

(-1.38pp From Mar ’21, +17.79pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 21.45%

(-1.21pp From Mar ’21, -0.45pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 17.80%

(+2.13pp From Mar ’21, -14.88pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 2.92%

(+0.74pp From Mar ’21, -0.48pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.04%

(-0.28pp From Mar ’21, -1.98pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 29.32%

(-0.83pp From Mar ’21, +11.97pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 19.23%

(-0.37pp From Mar ’21, +14.88pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 17.80%

(+2.13pp From Mar ’21, -14.88pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 14.27%

(-0.30pp From Mar ’21, -4.49pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 5.41%

(-0.90pp From Mar ’21, -8.59pp From Last Election)

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 3.97%

(-0.71pp From Mar ’21, +1.41pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 2.92%

(+0.74pp From Mar ’21, -0.48pp From Last Election)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.91%

(-0.30pp From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.30%

(+0.10pp From Mar ’21, +0.72pp From Last Election)

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.83%

(+0.72pp From Mar ’21, -0.47pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 3.04%

(-0.28pp From Mar ’21, -1.98pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 49.14%

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 47.53%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.33%

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX) : 49.14%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX) : 27.50%

Five Star Movement(M5S) : 16.48%

Free & Equal(LeU) : 3.55%

Others(ALT) : 3.33%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 23.28%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 18.89%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 17.54%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.48%

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.22%

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.36%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 3.55%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.53%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.72%

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 1.10%

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 3.33%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-Sopg_2ZTt-qxjwBsR8JUlaF3FJ8IRs-vxKZBZH8VnI/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[Italy General Election]2021 March Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will have the majority of both chambers, after being ahead of Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement by a quite big margin.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 56.17%

(+0.51pp From Feb ’21, +19.17pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 40.51%

(-0.86pp From Feb ’21, -17.47pp From Last Election)

Others(ALTRI / Mixed) : 3.32%

(+0.35pp From Feb ’21, -1.70pp From Last Election)

-By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 56.17%

(+0.51pp From Feb ’21, +19.17pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 22.66%

(-0.24pp From Feb ’21, +0.76pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 15.67%

(-0.96pp From Feb ’21, -17.01pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 2.18%

(+0.34pp From Feb ’21, -1.22pp From Last Election)

Others(ALTRI / Mixed) : 3.32%

(+0.35pp From Feb ’21, -1.70pp From Last Election)

-By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 30.15%

(-0.72pp From Feb ’21, +12.80pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 19.60%

(+0.94pp From Feb ’21, +15.25pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 15.67%

(-0.96pp From Feb ’21, -17.01pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 14.57%

(-0.81pp From Feb ’21, -4.19pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 6.31%

(+0.63pp From Feb ’21, -7.69pp From Last Election)

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.68%

(+0.65pp From Feb ’21, +2.12pp From Last Election)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.21%

(-0.19pp From Feb ’21, NEW PARTY)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 2.18%

(+0.34pp From Feb ’21, -1.22pp From Last Election)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.20%

(+0.11pp From Feb ’21, +0.62pp From Last Election)

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.11%

(-0.34pp From Feb ’21, -1.19pp From Last Election)

Others(ALTRI / Mixed – ALTRI) : 3.32%

(+0.35pp From Jan ’21, -1.70pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 49.94%

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 46.45%

Others(ALTRI / Mixed) : 3.61%

-By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX) : 49.94%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX) : 28.69%

Five Star Movement(M5S) : 14.38%

Free & Equal(LeU) : 3.38%

Others(ALTRI) : 3.61%

-By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 23.73%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 19.13%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 17.72%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 14.38%

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 8.35%

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 5.08%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 3.38%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.90%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.58%

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.14%

Others(ALTRI / Mixed – MIXED) : 3.61%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K9mlpB0oThEY2dOWzmxME7hL2zqHVUM6CQLrkFVufFM/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[Italy General Election]2021 February Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will have the majority of the both chambers, after being ahead of current government Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-By Government/Opposition

Government : 41.37%

(-3.22pp From Jan ’21, -16.61pp From Last Election)

Opposition : 55.66%

(+4.09pp From Jan ’21, +19.96pp From Last Election)

Netural : 2.97%

(-0.87pp From Jan ’21, -3.35pp From Last Election)

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 55.66%

(+4.09pp From Jan ’21, +19.96pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 22.90%

(-2.88pp From Jan ’21, +1.00pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 16.63%

(-0.23pp From Jan ’21, -16.05pp From Last Election)

The Left(LS / Left-wing) : 1.84%

(-0.11pp From Jan ’21, -1.56pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.97%

(-0.87pp From Jan ’21, -3.35pp From Last Election)

-By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 30.87%

(+0.43pp From Jan ’21, +13.52pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 18.66%

(+3.70pp From Jan ’21, +14.31pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.63%

(-0.23pp From Jan ’21, -16.05pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 15.38%

(-1.40pp From Jan ’21, -3.38pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 5.68%

(-0.51pp From Jan ’21, -8.32pp From Last Election)

Action(A / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.67%

(-0.22pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.40%

(-0.42pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

The Left(LS / Left-wing – LS) : 1.84%

(-0.11pp From Jan ’21, -1.56pp From Last Election)

More Europe(+E / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.36%

(-0.62pp From Jan ’21, -1.20pp From Last Election)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.09%

(-0.37pp From Jan ’21, +0.51pp From Last Election)

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.45%

(RE-ENTRY, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed – MIXED) : 2.97%

(-0.70pp From Jan ’21, -3.35pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-By Government/Opposition

Government : 47.90%

Opposition : 48.90%

Netural : 3.20%

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX) : 48.90%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX) : 29.52%

Five Star Movement(M5S) : 15.15%

The Left(LS) : 3.23%

Others(OTH) : 3.20%

-By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 24.11%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 20.04%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 16.74%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 15.15%

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.45%

Action(A / Lean-Left – CSX) : 3.48%

The Left(LS / Left-wing – LS) : 3.23%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 3.12%

More Europe(+E / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.46%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.42%

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.60%

Others(OTH / Mixed – MIXED) : 3.20%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q2ZQZt6Ci1sQAjd1g1-S1-9BdnML7sIvfu7HUJLu5h4/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[Italy General Election]2021 January Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s January Projection in Italy, we are projecting that main opposition Center-Right Coalition is ahead of government Center Left Coalition+Five Star Movement.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-By Government/Opposition

Government : 44.59%

(+0.54pp From Dec ’20, -13.92pp From Last Election)

Opposition : 51.57%

(+0.48pp From Dec ’20, +14.57pp From Last Election)

Netural : 3.84%

(-1.02pp From Dec ’20, +0.66pp From Last Election)

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 51.57%

(+0.48pp From Dec ’20, +14.57pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 25.78%

(+0.57pp From Dec’20, +3.35pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 16.86%

(-0.23pp From Dec’20, -15.82pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.84%

(-1.02pp From Dec ’20, -0.66pp From Last Election)

The Left(LS / Left-wing) : 1.95%

(+0.06pp From Dec ’20, -1.04pp From Last Election)

-By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 30.44%

(+0.63pp From Dec ’20, +13.09pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.86%

(-0.23pp From Dec ’20, -15.82pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 16.78%

(-0.08pp From Dec ’20, -1.98pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 14.96%

(-0.29pp From Dec ’20, +10.61pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 6.19%

(+0.18pp From Dec ’20, -7.99pp From Last Election)

Action(A / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.89%

(+0.19pp From Dec ’20, NEW PARTY)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.82%

(+0.18pp From Dec ’20, NEW PARTY)

More Europe(+E / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.98%

(+0.06pp From Dec ’20, -0.69pp From Last Election)

The Left(LS / Left-wing – LS) : 1.95%

(+0.06pp From Dec ’20, -1.04pp From Last Election)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.46%

(+0.22pp From Dec ’20, +0.76pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed – MIXED) : 3.67%

(-0.92pp From Dec ’20, -0.93pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-By Government/Opposition

Government : 48.78%

Opposition : 47.87%

Netural : 3.35%

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX) : 47.87%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX) : 31.29%

Five Star Movement(M5S) : 14.34%

Others(OTH) : 3.35%

The Left(LS) : 3.15%

-By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 24.59%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 20.42%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 16.07%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 14.34%

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.13%

Action(A / Lean-Left – CSX) : 3.52%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 3.43%

The Left(LS / Left-wing – LS) : 3.15%

More Europe(+E / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.99%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.93%

Others(OTH / Mixed – MIXED) : 3.42%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s3qfiM5NzZ6MLP-fkF2Nya5olRf3w1T0tNASdcsxOIQ/

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[Italy General Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

_Video

_Headline

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Italy, we are calling that it is too early to call for the control of the chamber of deputies. However, we are still putting opposition Center-Right Coalition narrowly over the governing Center Left Coalition+Five Star Movement by 4.63%p.

_Poll+Error Projection

-By Government/Opposition

Opposition : 50.71% (-0.68pp From July, +13.71pp From Last Election)

Government : 46.08% (+1.30pp From July, -12.42pp From Last Election)

Netural : 3.21% (-0.62pp From July, -1.29pp From Last Election)

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX) : 50.71% (-0.68pp From July, +13.71pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX) : 24.98% (+0.18pp From July, +2.55pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S) : 19.11% (+0.86pp From July, -13.57pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed – OTH) : 3.21% (-0.62pp From July, -1.29pp From Last Election)

The Left(LS) : 1.99% (+0.26pp From July, -1.40pp From Last Election)

-By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 29.72% (-2.22pp From July, +12.37pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 19.11% (+0.86pp From July, -13.57pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 16.45% (-0.03pp From July, -2.31pp From Last Election)

Brother of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 14.34% (+0.95pp From July, +9.99pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 6.37% (+0.76pp From July, -7.63pp From Last Election)

Action(A / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.61% (+0.08pp From July NEW PARTY)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.57% (-0.65pp From July, NEW PARTY)

The Left(LS / Left-wing – LS) : 1.99% (+0.26pp From July, -1.40pp From Last Election)

More Europe(+E / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.97% (+0.47pp From July, -0.59pp From Last Election)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.38% (+0.31pp From July, +0.80pp From Last Election)

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.29% (-0.16pp From July, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed – OTH) : 3.21% (-0.62pp From July, -1.29pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection

-By Government/Opposition

Government : 49.21%

Opposition : 47.76%

Netural : 3.03%

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX) : 47.76%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX) : 29.45%

Five Star Movement(M5S) : 16.80%

The Left(LS) : 3.26%

Others(OTH) : 3.03%

-By Party

League(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 24.38%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 20.32%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.50%

Brother of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 15.63%

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.45%

The Left(LS / Left-wing – LS) : 3.26%

Action(A / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.66%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.61%

More Europe(+E / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.00%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.86%

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.30%

Others(OTH / Mixed – OTH) : 3.03%

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s3qfiM5NzZ6MLP-fkF2Nya5olRf3w1T0tNASdcsxOIQ/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[2020 01.26 Italy Calabria Regional Election]GEUN/GEHSC.en Final Projection

[Projection]CDX 41.67%, CSX 34.82%, CIV 13.48%, M5S 10.03%

Google Spreadsheet Detail :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dEpZ8g8SILp3LYcWf8G0E4YrdZGq_Ib-0ywofsSXuw/

[2020 01.26 Italy Emilia-Romagna Regional Election]GEUN/GEHSC.en Final Projection

[Projection]CSX 45.6%, CDX 43.5%, M5S 7.1%, OTH 3.8%

Youtube Link :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-m6zldPYJU

Google Spreadsheet Details :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1slnfyrdfw8AKXPem79GznqR_pvrvxDzx1KQ0QGiieUE/

[2019 10.27 Italy Umbria Regional Election]GEUN/GEHSC Final Projection

[Vote Share Projection]CDX 46.8%, CSX+M5S 42.2%, RP 5.6%, OTH 5.4%

Google Spreadsheet Link for more information :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lo-G_oz7-m0gVUMr5jW5SQwFJF4q9BNlR5jt2-DVUFc/