MARCH ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will clinch the victory over Center-Left, but it is still Extremely Close between Center-Left & Center-Right in the vote level, which means Center-Left could win if unified.

_SEAT PROJECTION

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 250 Seats

(+3 From Feb ’23, +13 From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 69 Seats

(+3 From Feb ’23, -16 From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 56 Seats

(-4 From Feb ’23, +4 From Last Election)

Center Coalition(CX / Center) : 20 Seats

(-2 From Feb ’23, -1 From Last Election)

Eurosceptic Coalition(IE / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

-By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 132 Seats

(+1 From Feb ’23, +13 From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 66 Seats

(+1 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 60 Seats

(+3 From Feb ’23, -14 From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 56 Seats

(-4 From Feb ’23, +4 From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 44 Seats

(+1 From Feb ’23, -1 From Last Election)

Third Pole(TP / Center) : 20 Seats

(-2 From Feb ’23, -1 From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 9 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’23, -3 From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’23, +1 From Last Election)

South Tyrolean People’s Party + Trentino Tyrolean Autonomist Party(SVP+PATT / Lean-Right) : 3 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

South Calls North(ScN / Big Tent) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, -2 From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Left-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Sovereign & Popular Democracy(DSP / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 46.18%

(+0.57pp From Feb ’23, +3.05pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 22.87%

(+1.03pp From Feb ’23, -3.68pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 16.97%

(-1.07pp From Feb ’23, +1.80pp From Last Election)

Center Coalition(CX / Center) : 7.52%

(-0.64pp From Feb ’23, -0.17pp From Last Election)

Eurosceptic Coalition(IE / Big Tent) : 2.77%

(+0.11pp From Feb ’23, -0.26pp From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 1.01%

(+0.00pp From Feb ’23, -0.37pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 2.68%

(+0.00pp From Feb ’23, -0.37pp From Last Election)

-By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 29.41%

(+0.00pp From Feb ’23, +4.42pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 17.24%

(+0.92pp From Feb ’23, -2.82pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 16.97%

(-1.07pp From Feb ’23, +1.80pp From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 9.15%

(+0.46pp From Feb ’23, -0.30pp From Last Election)

Third Pole(TP / Center) : 7.52%

(-0.64pp From Feb ’23, -0.17pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 7.28%

(+0.13pp From Feb ’23, -0.51pp From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 3.04%

(-0.20pp From Feb ’23, -0.63pp From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 2.59%

(+0.31pp From Feb ’23, -0.23pp From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 2.03%

(+0.09pp From Feb ’23, +0.20pp From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Left-wing Big Tent) : 1.01%

(+0.00pp From Feb ’23, -0.37pp From Last Election)

Sovereign & Popular Democracy(DSP / Big Tent) : 0.74%

(+0.02pp From Feb ’23, -0.46pp From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 0.34%

(-0.02pp From Feb ’23, -0.56pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 2.68%

(+0.00pp From Feb ’23, -0.37pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Italy General Election March Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 13 polling data(19,984 unweighted / 15,993 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 2/21 and 2/28.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, Italy

[Italy General Election]2023 February Projection / Prediction / Forecast

16th Feb 202319th Feb 2023 mglee05

FEBRUARY ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will hold control of both Senate & Chamber, but it is Extremely Close between Center-Left + Five Star & Center-Right in the vote level.

_SEAT PROJECTION

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 247 Seats

(+10 From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 66 Seats

(-19 From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 60 Seats

(+8 From Last Election)

Center Coalition(CX / Center) : 22 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Eurosceptic Coalition(IE / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

-By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 131 Seats

(+12 From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 65 Seats

(-1 From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 60 Seats

(+8 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 57 Seats

(-14 From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 43 Seats

(-2 From Last Election)

Third Pole(TP / Center) : 22 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 9 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 8 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 0 Seat

(-2 From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Left-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Sovereign & Popular Democracy(DSP / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 45.61%

(+2.48pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 21.84%

(-4.71pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.04%

(+2.87pp From Last Election)

Center Coalition(CX / Center) : 8.16%

(+0.47pp From Last Election)

Eurosceptic Coalition(IE / Big Tent) : 2.66%

(-0.37pp From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 1.01%

(-0.37pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 2.68%

(-0.37pp From Last Election)

-By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 29.41%

(+4.42pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.04%

(+2.87pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 16.32%

(-3.74pp From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 8.69%

(-0.76pp From Last Election)

Third Pole(TP / Center) : 8.16%

(+0.47pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 7.15%

(-0.64pp From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 3.24%

(-0.43pp From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 2.28%

(-0.54pp From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 1.94%

(+0.11pp From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Left-wing Big Tent) : 1.01%

(-0.37pp From Last Election)

Sovereign & Popular Democracy(DSP / Big Tent) : 0.72%

(-0.48pp From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 0.36%

(-0.54pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 2.68%

(-0.37pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Italy General Election February Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 11 polling data(17,432 unweighted / 15,165 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/24 and 1/31.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, Italy, SPECIAL - 2022 IT General Election

[Italy General Election]2022 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

21st Sep 202221st Sep 2022 mglee05

FINAL ’22 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Italy, we are projecting that now it is Extremely Close between Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement and Center-Right Coalition on the extended coalition level.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 46.21%

(+8.69pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 28.51%

(+3.18pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 12.76%

(+19.90pp From Last Election)

Center Coalition(CX / Lean-Left) : 6.48%

(+6.42pp From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 2.66%

(+1.71pp From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 1.04%

(-0.10pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 2.34%

(+0.00pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 24.98%

(+0.57pp From 9/9 ’22, +20.64pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 22.11%

(-0.07pp From 9/9 ’22, +2.73pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 12.76%

(+0.40pp From 9/9 ’22, -19.90pp From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 12.37%

(-0.47pp From 9/9 ’22, -4.98pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 7.40%

(-0.09pp From 9/9 ’22, -6.59pp From Last Election)

Action + Italy Alive(AZ+IV / Lean-Left) : 6.48%

(+0.07pp From 9/9 ’22, +6.42pp From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 3.58%

(+0.16pp From 9/9 ’22, +0.19pp From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 2.66%

(-0.02pp From 9/9 ’22, +1.71pp From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 1.85%

(-0.18pp From 9/9 ’22, -0.71pp From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 1.46%

(-0.28pp From 9/9 ’22, -0.38pp From Last Election)

Popular Union(UP / Far-Left) : 1.04%

(NEW ENTRY, -0.10pp From Last Election)

Civic Commitment(IC / Lean-Left) : 0.97%

(-0.22pp From 9/9 ’22, NEW PARTY)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 2.34%

(-0.93pp From 9/9 ’21, +0.00pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, Italy, SPECIAL - 2022 IT General Election

[Italy General Election]2022 8/30 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

29th Aug 202213th Sep 2022 mglee05

8/30 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR SEPTEMBER WEEK 1

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 24.54%

(+0.51pp From 8/22 ’22, +20.19pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 22.95%

(-1.13pp From 8/22 ’22, +3.61pp From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 13.65%

(-0.26pp From 8/22 ’22, -3.70pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 10.88%

(+0.15pp From 8/22 ’22, -21.80pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 7.80%

(+0.13pp From 8/22 ’22, -6.20pp From Last Election)

Action + Italy Alive(AZ+IV / Lean-Left) : 5.46%

(+0.21pp From 8/22 ’22, +5.40pp From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 3.05%

(-0.10pp From 8/22 ’22, -0.92pp From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 2.60%

(+0.38pp From 8/22 ’22, +1.99pp From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 2.06%

(-0.01pp From 8/22 ’22, -0.50pp From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 1.48%

(-0.23pp From 8/22 ’22, -0.36pp From Last Election)

Civic Commitment(IC / Lean-Left) : 0.95%

(+0.15pp From 8/22 ’22, NEW PARTY)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 4.48%

(+0.20pp From 8/22 ’21, +1.12pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

globe-elections-un-italy-general-election-polling-follower-2022.08-30 Download

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 8/30 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 8 polling data(total 13,453 sample size) fieldwork done between 8/20 and 8/27 and reported on Electoral Political Polls. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to Electoral Political Polls homepage(http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/).

[2022 Italy General Election]Globe Elections UN Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

Europe, Italy, SPECIAL - 2022 IT General Election

[Italy General Election]2022 8/22 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

22nd Aug 202213th Sep 2022 mglee05

8/22 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR AUGUST WEEK 4

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 24.08%

(-0.18pp From 8/20 ’22, +4.74pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 24.03%

(+0.03pp From 8/20 ’22, +19.68pp From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 13.91%

(+0.44pp From 8/20 ’22, -3.44pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 10.73%

(+0.15pp From 8/20 ’22, -21.95pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 7.67%

(-0.87pp From 8/20 ’22, -6.33pp From Last Election)

Action + Italy Alive(AZ+IV / Lean-Left) : 5.25%

(+0.03pp From 8/20 ’22, +5.19pp From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 3.15%

(-0.49pp From 8/20 ’22, -0.82pp From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 2.22%

(-0.22pp From 8/20 ’22, +1.61pp From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 2.07%

(-0.29pp From 8/20 ’22, -0.49pp From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 1.71%

(-0.06pp From 8/20 ’22, -0.13pp From Last Election)

Civic Commitment(IC / Lean-Left) : 0.80%

(-0.01pp From 8/20 ’22, NEW PARTY)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 4.48%

(+1.47pp From 8/20 ’21, +0.92pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

globe-elections-un-italy-general-election-polling-follower-2022.08-22 Download

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 8/22 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 6 polling data(total 11,392 sample size) fieldwork done between 8/13 and 8/20 and reported on Electoral Political Polls. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to Electoral Political Polls homepage(http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/).

[2022 Italy General Election]Globe Elections UN Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

Europe, Italy

[Italy General Election]2021 December Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

6th Dec 202113th Sep 2022 mglee05

DECEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s Decmeber Projection in Italy, we are projecting that now it is Too Close To Call between Center-Right Coalition and Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement as the margin declines.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 50.86%

(-1.30pp From Aug ’21, +13.86pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 46.04%

(+1.84pp From Aug ’21, -11.94pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.10%

(-0.54pp From Aug ’21, -1.92pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 50.86%

(-1.30pp From Aug ’21, +13.86pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 24.86%

(+1.57pp From Aug ’21, +2.96pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 17.79%

(-0.06pp From Aug ’21, -14.89pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.39%

(+0.33pp From Aug ’21, -0.01pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.10%

(-0.54pp From Aug ’21, -1.92pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 22.84%

(-0.51pp From Aug ’21, +18.49pp From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 21.31%

(-1.51pp From Aug ’21, +3.96pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 17.79%

(-0.06pp From Aug ’21, -14.89pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 16.55%

(+1.01pp From Aug ’21, -2.21pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 5.78%

(+0.20pp From Aug ’21, -8.22pp From Last Election)

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.52%

(-0.11pp From Aug ’21, +1.96pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.39%

(+0.33pp From Aug ’21, -0.01pp From Last Election)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.14%

(+0.13pp From Aug ’21, NEW PARTY)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.65%

(+0.44pp From Aug ’21, +1.07pp From Last Election)

Courage Italy(CI / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.93%

(+0.52pp From Aug ’21, -0.37pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.10%

(-0.54pp From Aug ’21, -1.92pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 49.74%

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 47.04%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.22%

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 47.04%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 30.22%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 15.61%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.91%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.22%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 20.77%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 19.74%

League(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 18.81%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 15.61%

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.32%

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.69%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 3.91%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.68%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 2.08%

Courage Italy(CI / Center-Right – CDX) : 1.17%

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 3.22%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, Italy

[Italy General Election]2021 August Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

8th Aug 202113th Sep 2022 mglee05

AUGUST ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition could gain the majority of both chambers likely, after being ahead of Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement by under 10%p, which means it is a Key Race.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 52.16%

(-0.86pp From Jul ’21, +15.16pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 44.20%

(+0.37pp From Jul ’21, -13.78pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.64%

(+0.49pp From Jul ’21, -1.38pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 52.16%

(-0.86pp From Jul ’21, +15.16pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 23.29%

(+1.08pp From Jul ’21, +1.39pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 17.85%

(-0.66pp From Jul ’21, -14.83pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.06%

(-0.05pp From Jul ’21, -0.34pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.64%

(+0.49pp From Jul ’21, -1.38pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 23.35%

(+0.19pp From Jul ’21, +19.00pp From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 22.82%

(-0.94pp From Jul ’21, +5.47pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 17.85%

(-0.66pp From Jul ’21, -14.83pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 15.54%

(-0.02pp From Jul ’21, -3.22pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 5.58%

(+0.04pp From Jul ’21, -8.42pp From Last Election)

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.63%

(+0.67pp From Jul ’21, +2.07pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.06%

(-0.05pp From Jul ’21, -0.34pp From Last Election)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.91%

(+0.17pp From Jul ’21, NEW PARTY)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.21%

(+0.26pp From Jul ’21, +0.63pp From Last Election)

Courage Italy(CI / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.41%

(-0.15pp From Jul ’21, -0.89pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.64%

(+0.49pp From Jul ’21, -1.38pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 48.34%

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 47.85%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.64%

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 48.34%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 28.48%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 15.81%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.56%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.81%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 20.38%

League(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 20.32%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 19.68%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 15.81%

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.12%

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.85%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 3.56%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.41%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.54%

Courage Italy(CI / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.52%

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 3.81%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, Italy

[Italy General Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

16th Jul 202113th Sep 2022 mglee05

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s July Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will gain the majority of both chambers likely, after being ahead of Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement by just under 10%p. But as the situation narrowed down once again, it is now characterized as Key Race.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 53.02%

(+0.89pp From Jun ’21, +16.02pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 43.83%

(+0.47pp From Jun ’21, -14.15pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.15%

(-1.36pp From Jun ’21, -1.87pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 53.02%

(+0.89pp From Jun ’21, +16.02pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 22.21%

(+0.02pp From Jun ’21, +0.31pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.51%

(+0.16pp From Jun ’21, -14.17pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.11%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, -0.29pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.15%

(-1.36pp From Jun ’21, -1.87pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 23.76%

(-0.59pp From Jun ’21, +6.41pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 23.16%

(+1.31pp From Jun ’21, +18.81pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.51%

(+0.16pp From Jun ’21, -14.17pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 15.56%

(+0.41pp From Jun ’21, -3.20pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 5.54%

(-0.31pp From Jun ’21, -8.46pp From Last Election)

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 3.96%

(-0.12pp From Jun ’21, +1.40pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.11%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, -0.29pp From Last Election)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.74%

(-0.04pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 0.95%

(-0.23pp From Jun ’21, +0.37pp From Last Election)

Courage Italy(CI / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.56%

(+0.48pp From Jun ’21, -0.74pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.15%

(-1.36pp From Jun ’21, -1.87pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 49.29%

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 47.40%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.31%

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 49.29%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 27.34%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 16.44%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.62%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.31%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 21.23%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 20.26%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 19.76%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.44%

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.09%

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.16%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 3.62%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.21%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.21%

Courage Italy(CI / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.71%

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 3.31%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, Italy

[Italy General Election]2021 June Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

21st Jun 202113th Sep 2022 mglee05

JUNE ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will gain the majority of both chambers likely, after being ahead of Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement by little less than 10%p. But as the situation narrowed down, it is now characterized as Key Race.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 52.13%

(-1.92pp From May ’21, +15.13pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 43.36%

(+1.13pp From May ’21, -14.62pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 4.51%

(+0.79pp From May ’21, -0.51pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 52.13%

(-1.92pp From May ’21, +15.13pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 22.19%

(+0.21pp From May ’21, +0.29pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.35%

(+0.69pp From May ’21, -14.33pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 2.82%

(+0.23pp From May ’21, -0.58pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 4.51%

(+0.79pp From May ’21, -0.51pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 24.35%

(-3.40pp From May ’21, +7.00pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 21.85%

(+1.34pp From May ’21, +17.50pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.35%

(+0.69pp From May ’21, -14.33pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 15.15%

(+0.33pp From May ’21, -3.61pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 5.85%

(+0.23pp From May ’21, -8.15pp From Last Election)

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.08%

(+0.04pp From May ’21, +1.52pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 2.82%

(+0.23pp From May ’21, -0.58pp From Last Election)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.78%

(-0.08pp From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.18%

(-0.09pp From May ’21, +0.60pp From Last Election)

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.08%

(-0.09pp From May ’21, -1.22pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 4.51%

(+0.79pp From May ’21, -0.51pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 48.42%

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 46.85%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 4.73%

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 48.42%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 27.28%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 16.28%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.29%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 4.73%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 21.73%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 19.23%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 19.11%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.28%

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.48%

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.28%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 3.29%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.26%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.51%

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.10%

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 4.73%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Europe, Italy

[Italy General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

12th May 202113th Sep 2022 mglee05

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will gain the majority of both chambers very likely, after being ahead of Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement by little more than 10%p.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 54.05%

(-0.74pp From Apr ’21, +17.05pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 42.23%

(+0.06pp From Apr ’21, -15.75pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.72%

(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -1.30pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 54.05%

(-0.74pp From Apr ’21, +17.05pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 21.98%

(+0.53pp From Apr ’21, +0.08pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 17.66%

(-0.14pp From Apr ’21, -15.02pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 2.59%

(-0.33pp From Apr ’21, -0.81pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.72%

(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -1.30pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 27.75%

(-1.57pp From Apr ’21, +10.40pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 20.51%

(+1.28pp From Apr ’21, +16.16pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 17.66%

(-0.14pp From Apr ’21, -15.02pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 14.82%

(+0.55pp From Apr ’21, -3.94pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 5.62%

(+0.21pp From Apr ’21, -8.38pp From Last Election)

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.04%

(+0.07pp From Apr ’21, +1.48pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 2.59%

(-0.33pp From Apr ’21, -0.81pp From Last Election)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.85%

(-0.06pp From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.27%

(-0.03pp From Apr ’21, +0.69pp From Last Election)

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.17%

(-0.66pp From Apr ’21, -1.13pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 3.72%

(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -1.30pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 48.35%

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 47.59%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 4.06%

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX) : 48.35%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX) : 28.14%

Five Star Movement(M5S) : 16.31%

Free & Equal(LeU) : 3.14%

Others(ALT) : 4.06%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 21.98%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 19.58%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 18.67%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.31%

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.48%

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.42%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 3.14%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.45%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.69%

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.22%

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 4.06%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_vnaCapG7M3SDAgjo5D4y_3Trx23V64UjFX5RYq1EDc/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/