Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in Germany, we are projecting that Christian Democratic/Social Union is now back as largest group on the next Bundestag. Oppositely, Greens are down to the figures they obtained in January of this year. Social Democrats follows on 3rd, Germany Alternative is slightly down, Free Democrats are completely steady, and The Left is down.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 221 Seats

(+37 From Jun ’21, -37 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 148 Seats

(-19 From Jun ’21, +81 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 88 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, -65 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 77 Seats

(-5 From Jun ’21, -17 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 72 Seats

(-10 From Jun ’21, -8 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 44 Seats

(+5 From Jun ’21, -25 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 26.79%

(+13.57pp From Jun ’21, -5.96pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 22.99%

(-3.09pp From Jun ’21, +14.05pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.69%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, -6.82pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.75%

(-0.19pp From Jun ’21, -0.89pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.25%

(-1.64pp From Jun ’21, +0.50pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.55%

(+0.53pp From Jun ’21, -2.69pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.98%

(+0.53pp From Jun ’21, +1.98pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 31.67%

(+3.88pp From Jun ’21, -5.59pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 21.54%

(-3.20pp From Jun ’21, +13.53pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 17.19%

(+0.16pp From Jun ’21, -7.45pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.13%

(-0.33pp From Jun ’21, -0.33pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.66%

(-1.23pp From Jun ’21, +0.66pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.33%

(+0.43pp From Jun ’21, -2.22pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.48%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, +1.40pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 28.95% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 19.77% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.16% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.39%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.51%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.15%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 7.07%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 June Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JUNE ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in Germany, we are projecting that it is too close to call between the Union parties & the Greens. On the other hand, there is also a heat for the 3rd place as Social Democrats fall, Free Democrats gain, Alternative for Germany goes down.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 184 Seats

(+6 From May ’21, -74 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 167 Seats

(-19 From May ’21, +100 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 87 Seats

(-3 From May ’21, -66 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 82 Seats

(+10 From May ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 82 Seats

(+1 From May ’21, -12 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 39 Seats

(-6 From May ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 26.08%

(-3.09pp From May ’21, +17.14pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 23.22%

(+1.93pp From May ’21, -9.53pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.40%

(+0.28pp From May ’21, -7.11pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 12.89%

(+1.63pp From May ’21, +2.14pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.94%

(-0.24pp From May ’21, -0.70pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.02%

(-0.80pp From May ’21, -3.22pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.45%

(+0.29pp From May ’21, +1.45pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 27.79%

(+2.30pp From May ’21, -9.47pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 24.74%

(-2.94pp From May ’21, +16.73pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 17.03%

(+0.34pp From May ’21, -7.61pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.46%

(-0.23pp From May ’21, +0.00pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 8.89%

(+1.12pp From May ’21, +1.89pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 5.90%

(-0.78pp From May ’21, -2.65pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.19%

(+0.19pp From May ’21, +1.11pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 25.28% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 22.61% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.96% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 13.16%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.77%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.63%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.59%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Germany, we are projecting that The Greens will now likely be the largest group in the next Bundestag as they make enormous gains. Oppositely, the Union parties have crashed down again and will be behind at second even with their strong grounds on individual constituencies. On the other hand, the Social Democrats have just less than 100 seats mainly due to the rise of The Greens. Alternative for Germany, Free Democrats are now steady and The Left are down slightly from the last election.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (*Including Both Leveling Seats & Overhang Seats From Apr ’21)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 186 Seats

(+4 From Apr ’21, +119 From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 178 Seats

(-30 From Apr ’21, -80 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 90 Seats

(-4 From Apr ’21, -63 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 81 Seats

(+2 From Apr ’21, -13 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 72 Seats

(+12 From Apr ’21, -8 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 45 Seats

(+1 From Apr ’21, -24 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 29.17%

(+0.63pp From Apr ’21, +20.23pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 21.29%

(-2.13pp From Apr ’21, -11.46pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.12%

(-1.03pp From Apr ’21, -7.39pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 12.18%

(+0.55pp From Apr ’21, -0.46pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.26%

(+1.93pp From Apr ’21, +0.51pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.82%

(+0.26pp From Apr ’21, -2.42pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.16%

(-0.21pp From Apr ’21, +1.16pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 27.68%

(+0.94pp From Apr ’21, +19.67pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 25.49%

(-2.20pp From Apr ’21, -11.77pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 16.69%

(-1.08pp From Apr ’21, -7.95pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.69%

(+0.67pp From Apr ’21, +0.23pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.77%

(+1.41pp From Apr ’21, +0.77pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.68%

(+0.34pp From Apr ’21, -1.87pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.00%

(-0.08pp From Apr ’21, +0.92pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 25.44% 

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 23.32% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.73% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.57%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.05%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.82%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.16%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SbKCbFUUy4CFHNovpuAkZpWY8YYh7vDNoQv0m6wpQOM/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 April Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s April Projection in Germany, we are projecting that the Union parties has crashed down after the Mask Corruption Scandal and as the result they are not leading over the Greens on the vote level anymore. However, they will still be the largest group in the next Bundestag after strong grounds on individual constituencies. In the other hand, The Greens are expected to make huge gains and now even up to the first place on the vote level. While the Social Democrats have just less than 100 seats mainly due to rise of Greens. Alternative for Germany, Free Democrats, The Left are down slightly from the last election.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (*Including Both Leveling Seats & Overhang Seats From Apr ’21)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 208 Seats

(+13 From Mar ’21, -50 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 182 Seats

(+29 From Mar ’21, +115 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 94 Seats

(+5 From Mar ’21, -59 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 79 Seats

(+10 From Mar ’21, -15 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 60 Seats

(+11 From Mar ’21, -20 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 44 Seats

(-4 From Mar ’21, -25 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 28.54%

(+4.47pp From Mar ’21, +19.60pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 23.42%

(-7.20pp From Mar ’21, -9.33pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.15%

(+0.10pp From Mar ’21, -6.36pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.63%

(+0.99pp From Mar ’21, -1.01pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 9.33%

(+1.55pp From Mar ’21, -1.42pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.56%

(-0.44pp From Mar ’21, -2.68pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.37%

(+0.53pp From Mar ’21, +1.37pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 27.69%

(-7.71pp From Mar ’21, -9.57pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 26.74%

(+4.70pp From Mar ’21, +18.73pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 17.77%

(+0.53pp From Mar ’21, -6.87pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.02%

(+1.16pp From Mar ’21, -0.44pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 6.36%

(+1.18pp From Mar ’21, -0.64pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.34%

(-0.28pp From Mar ’21, -2.21pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.08%

(+0.42pp From Mar ’21, +1.00pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 26.55% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 21.89% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 16.44% 

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.92%

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 9.92%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.51%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.77%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YuF2c6rrl5F6gxO86dlQH-8Wv6Xeas0AXHSJJcGfsHA/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 March Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in Germany, we are projecting that the Union parties will be remaining as the largest group. On the other hand, the Greens are expected to make a push to second place while the Social Democrats have slipped to their lowest point in a federal election with less than 100 seats. Alternative for Germany, Free Democrats, The Left is down slightly from the last election.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (*Only Including Leveling Seats, No Overhang Seats Included.)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 195 Seats

(-12 From Feb ’21, -51 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 153 Seats

(-3 From Feb ’21, +86 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 89 Seats

(+4 From Feb ’21, -64 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 69 Seats

(+4 From Feb ’21, -25 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 49 Seats

(+6 From Feb ’21, -31 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 48 Seats

(+3 From Feb ’21, -21 From Last Election)

Others(SONST / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 30.62%

(-1.84pp From Feb ’21, -2.31pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 24.07%

(-0.51pp From Feb ’21, +15.13pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.05%

(+0.65pp From Feb ’21, -6.46pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.64%

(+0.54pp From Feb ’21, -2.00pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.78%

(+0.99pp From Feb ’21, -2.97pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.00%

(+0.38pp From Feb ’21, -2.24pp From Last Election)

Others(SONST / Mixed) : 5.84%

(-0.21pp From Feb ’21, +0.84pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 35.40%

(-1.96pp From Feb ’21, -1.86pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 22.04%

(-0.38pp From Feb ’21, +14.03pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 17.24%

(+0.86pp From Feb ’21, -7.40pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.86%

(+0.54pp From Feb ’21, -1.60pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.62%

(+0.38pp From Feb ’21, -1.93pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 5.18%

(+0.68pp From Feb ’21, -1.82pp From Last Election)

Others(SONST / Mixed) : 3.66%

(-0.12pp From Feb ’21, +0.58pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 34.04% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 18.11% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 16.00% 

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.79%

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 8.10%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.87%

Others(SONST / Mixed) : 6.09%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UQmzPe827KKD4_DFgSvblZmf1UBmJkXu4Yi76l-oxzM/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 February Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Germany, we are projecting that the Union will be remaining as the largest group. In the other hand, the Greens are expected to make a push to second while the Social Democrats slipped to their lowest point in a federal election. Alternative for Germany, Free Democrats, The Left is down slightly from the last election.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (*Only Including Leveling Seats, No Overhang Seats Included.)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 207 Seats

(-1 From Jan ’21, -39 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 156 Seats

(+25 From Jan ’21, +89 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 85 Seats

(-6 From Jan ’21, -68 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 66 Seats

(-9 From Jan ’21, -28 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 45 Seats

(-3 From Jan ’21, -24 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 43 Seats

(-7 From Jan ’21, -37 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 32.46%

(-0.02pp From Jan ’21, -0.47pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 24.58%

(+4.08pp From Jan ’21, +15.64pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.40%

(-0.73pp From Jan ’21, -7.11pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.10%

(-0.92pp From Jan ’21, -2.54pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 6.79%

(-0.98pp From Jan ’21, -3.96pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.62%

(-0.74pp From Jan ’21, -2.62pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.05%

(-0.69pp From Jan ’21, +1.05pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 37.36%

(-0.10pp From Jan ’21, +0.10pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 22.42%

(+3.69pp From Jan ’21, +14.41pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 16.38%

(-0.92pp From Jan ’21, -8.26pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.32%

(-0.87pp From Jan ’21, -2.14pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.24%

(-0.71pp From Jan ’21, -2.31pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 4.50%

(-0.66pp From Jan ’21, -2.50pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.78%

(-0.43pp From Jan ’21, +0.70pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 36.09% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 18.50% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.27% 

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.31%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.44%

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.08%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.31%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XJ1cHWk1xFbkmtth6h0pTGnEw3B0PLMPn9sICbg7N3g/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 January Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s January Projection in Germany, we are projecting that CDU/CSU will be remaining as the largest party. In the other hand, Alliance 90/The Greens is expected to make a push to the second place and the Social Democrats down to under 100 seats. Alternative for Germany, Free Democrats, The Left will each lose around 20 seats compared to the last election.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (*Only Including Leveling Seats, No Overhang Seats Included.)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 208 Seats

(+1 From Dec ’20, -38 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 131 Seats

(-12 From Dec ’20, +64 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 91 Seats

(+2 From Dec ’20, -62 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 75 Seats

(+5 From Dec ’20, -19 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 50 Seats

(+2 From Dec ’20, -30 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 48 Seats

(+3 From Dec ’20, -21 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 37.46%

(-0.07pp From Dec ’20, +0.20pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 18.73%

(-1.81pp From Dec ’20, +10.69pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 17.30%

(+0.22pp From Dec ’20, -7.34pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.19%

(+0.31pp From Dec ’20, -1.27pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.95%

(+0.58pp From Dec ’20, -1.60pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 5.16%

(+0.19pp From Dec ’20, -1.84pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.21%

(+0.58pp From Dec ’20, +1.24pp From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 32.48%

(-0.16pp From Dec ’20, -0.45pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 20.50%

(-2.04pp From Dec ’20, +11.56pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.13%

(+0.14pp From Dec ’20, -6.38pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.02%

(+0.30pp From Dec ’20, -1.62pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.77%

(+0.26pp From Dec ’20, -2.98pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.36%

(+0.59pp From Dec ’20, -1.88pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.74%

(+0.91pp From Dec ’20, +1.95pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 35.83% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 17.77% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.51% 

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.55%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 8.09%

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 6.76%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.49%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13BH3eNpRocFjYegi3Y908ezkjCjmr1pvJ1TLWBzeVEY/

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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_Headline

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Germany, we are calling that CDU/CSU will be remaining as the largest party. In the other hand, Alliance 90/The Greens are expected to make a push to the second place, the Social Democrats down to third. Alternative for Germany, The Left, Free Democrats will each lose around 20 seats compared to the last election.

_Poll+Error Projection(Full)

-Seat Projection (*Only Including Leveling Seats, No Overhang Seats Included.)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 218 Seats (+0 From July, -28 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 134 Seats (+3 From July, +67 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 84 Seats (-5 From July, -69 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 74 Seats (-1 From July, -20 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 47 Seats (+0 From July, -22 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 45 Seats (-35 From July, +3 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 39.18% (+0.04pp From July, +1.92pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 19.04% (+0.30pp From July, +11.00pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.92% (-1.03pp From July, -8.72pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.39% (-0.21pp From July, -1.07pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.61% (+0.00pp From July, -1.94pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 4.66% (+0.31pp From July, -2.34pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.20% (+0.59pp From July, +1.13pp From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 34.05% (-0.20pp From July, +1.12pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 20.88% (+0.18pp From July, +11.94pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.03% (-0.94pp From July, -7.48pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.26% (-0.31pp From July, -1.38pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.03% (+0.42pp From July, -3.72pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.02% (-0.05pp From July, -2.22pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.73% (+0.90pp From July, +1.73pp From Last Election)

-Poll Only Projection(Prop.)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 37.55% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 18.10% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.30% 

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.75%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.70%

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 6.12%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.48%

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nrrNGsgTlDxIq4pHJ9o-CvbznH9sNFVrUHqZSZ1kJn8/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/