Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 FINAL Results & Projection Analysis

FINAL ’21 RESULTS

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s LIVE Projection in Germany, we have projected that Social Democrats are the Apparent Winner over the Unions and Greens.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 206 Seats

(+53 From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 197 Seats

(-49 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 118 Seats

(+51 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 92 Seats

(+12 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 83 Seats

(-11 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 39 Seats

(-30 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 1 Seat

(+1 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 25.74%

(+5.23pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 24.07%

(-8.86pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 14.75%

(+5.81pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.46%

(+0.71pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.34%

(-2.30pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 4.89%

(-4.35pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 2.43%

(+1.44pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.32%

(+2.32pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 28.56%

(-8.70pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 26.39%

(+1.75pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 13.95%

(+5.93pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.13%

(-1.33pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 8.72%

(+1.72pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 4.98%

(-3.57pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 2.88%

(+1.61pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.39%

(+2.59pp From Last Election)

_PROJECTION ANALYSIS

-Average Error Analysis

Globe Elections UN(FINAL Projection) : 1.47%

Globe Elections UN(POLL BASE Projection) : 0.86%

—————————————————–

Dawum(Trend) : 0.73%

ZDF(Exit Poll) : 0.77%

ARD(Exit Poll) : 0.91%

Koala(Survery Pool) : 1.03%

Guradian(Tracker) : 1.15%

PollyVote(Forecast) : 1.26%

Pollytix(Trend) : 1.26%

Europe Elects(Average) : 1.29%

Ewybory(Average) : 1.31%

New Statesman(Tracker) : 1.32%

Tagesspiegel(Average) : 1.37%

Politico(Poll Of Polls) : 1.42%

INWT Statistics(Forecast) : 1.45%

PolitPro(Trend) : 1.46%

ElectionMapsUK(Nowcast) : 1.69%

Economist(Forecast) : 2.31%

-Standard Error Analysis

Globe Elections UN(FINAL Projection) : 2.13%

Globe Elections UN(POLL BASE Projection) : 1.10%

—————————————————–

Dawum(Trend) : 0.99%

ARD(Exit Poll) : 1.25%

ZDF(Exit Poll) : 1.27%

Koala(Survery Pool) : 1.28%

Guradian(Tracker) : 1.48%

PollyVote(Forecast) : 1.58%

Pollytix(Trend) : 1.61%

Europe Elects(Average) : 1.68%

Ewybory(Average) : 1.68%

New Statesman(Tracker) : 1.72%

Politico(Poll Of Polls) : 1.75%

Tagesspiegel(Average) : 1.76%

INWT Statistics(Forecast) : 1.77%

PolitPro(Trend) : 1.82%

ElectionMapsUK(Nowcast) : 2.00%

Economist(Forecast) : 3.20%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Germany, we are projecting that it is too close to call between the Social Democrats and the Unions. Greens are at strong 3rd, and Alternative, Free Democrats, The Left follows after.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 203 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, +50 From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 149 Seats

(+21 From Sep ’21, -97 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 122 Seats

(-17 From Aug ’21, +55 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 81 Seats

(+2 From Sep ’21, -13 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 75 Seats

(-2 From Sep ’21, -5 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 40 Seats

(-2 From Sep ’21, -29 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 23.41%

(+0.17pp From Sep ’21, +2.90pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 20.96%

(+2.57pp From Sep ’21, -11.79pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 18.60%

(-2.94pp From Sep ’21, +9.66pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.54%

(-0.36pp From Sep ’21, +0.79pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.09%

(+0.07pp From Sep ’21, -1.55pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 5.90%

(-0.39pp From Sep ’21, -3.34pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 1.98%

(NEW ENTRY, +0.99pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.52%

(-1.10pp From Sep ’21, +2.52pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 28.87%

(+0.00pp From Sep ’21, +4.23pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 24.44%

(+2.84pp From Sep ’21, -12.82pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 17.33%

(-2.89pp From Sep ’21, +9.31pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.36%

(-0.01pp From Sep ’21, -1.10pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.75%

(-0.30pp From Sep ’21, +0.75pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 5.62%

(-0.42pp From Sep ’21, -2.93pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 2.61%

(NEW ENTRY, +1.34pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 3.02%

(-1.83pp From Sep ’21, +1.22pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 25.30% 

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 22.10% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRÜNE / Center-Left) : 15.61% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.40%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.91%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.28%

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 1.96%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.44%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

SEPTEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in Germany, we are projecting that Social Democrats now will be the largest group on the next Bundestag after a historic big surge. For the second place, there is almost a tie between Greens and Christian Democratic/Social Union. Free Democrats are completely steady, Alternative For Germany is slightly down, and The Left is down.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 203 Seats

(+103 From Aug ’21, +50 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 139 Seats

(-9 From Aug ’21, +72 From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 128 Seats

(-68 From Aug ’21, -118 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 79 Seats

(+3 From Aug ’21, -15 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 77 Seats

(-1 From Aug ’21, -3 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 42 Seats

(-1 From Aug ’21, -27 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Aug ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 23.24%

(+7.73pp From Aug ’21, +2.73pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 21.54%

(-1.47pp From Aug ’21, +12.60pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 18.39%

(-6.74pp From Aug ’21, -14.36pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.90%

(-0.10pp From Aug ’21, +1.15pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.02%

(-0.23pp From Aug ’21, -1.62pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.29%

(-0.06pp From Aug ’21, -2.95pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 7.62%

(+0.87pp From Aug ’21, +2.62pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 28.87%

(+9.50pp From Aug ’21, +4.23pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 21.60%

(-8.07pp From Aug ’21, -15.66pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 20.22%

(-1.48pp From Aug ’21, +12.21pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.37%

(-0.28pp From Aug ’21, -1.09pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 8.05%

(-0.11pp From Aug ’21, +1.05pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.04%

(-0.09pp From Aug ’21, -2.51pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.85%

(+0.53pp From Aug ’21, +1.77pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 25.26% 

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 19.50% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 18.18% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.83%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.91%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.74%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 7.58%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 August Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

AUGUST ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Germany, we are projecting that Christian Democratic/Social Union will be the largest group on the next Bundestag. Oppositely, The Greens is just steady compared to July, and Social Democrats emerges to strong 3rd. Free Democrats is completely steady, Alternative For Germany is slightly down, and The Left is down.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 196 Seats

(-25 From Jul ’21, -62 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 148 Seats

(+0 From Jul ’21, +81 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 100 Seats

(+12 From Jul ’21, -53 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 78 Seats

(+6 From Jul ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 76 Seats

(-1 From Jul ’21, -18 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 43 Seats

(-1 From Jul ’21, -26 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jul ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 25.13%

(-1.66pp From Jul ’21, -7.62pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 23.01%

(+0.02pp From Jul ’21, +14.07pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.51%

(+1.82pp From Jul ’21, -5.00pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 12.00%

(+0.75pp From Jul ’21, +1.25pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.25%

(-0.50pp From Jul ’21, -1.39pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.35%

(-0.20pp From Jul ’21, -2.89pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.75%

(-0.23pp From Jul ’21, +1.75pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 29.67%

(-2.00pp From Jul ’21, -7.59pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 21.70%

(+0.16pp From Jul ’21, +13.69pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 19.37%

(+2.18pp From Jul ’21, -5.27pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.65%

(-0.48pp From Jul ’21, -0.81pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 8.16%

(+0.50pp From Jul ’21, +1.16pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 613%

(-0.20pp From Jul ’21, -2.42pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.32%

(-0.16pp From Jul ’21, +1.24pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 26.75% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 19.50% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 16.92% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.97%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.18%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.84%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.74%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s July Projection in Germany, we are projecting that Christian Democratic/Social Union is now back as largest group on the next Bundestag. Oppositely, Greens are down to the figures they obtained in January of this year. Social Democrats follows on 3rd, Germany Alternative is slightly down, Free Democrats are completely steady, and The Left is down.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 221 Seats

(+37 From Jun ’21, -37 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 148 Seats

(-19 From Jun ’21, +81 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 88 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, -65 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 77 Seats

(-5 From Jun ’21, -17 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 72 Seats

(-10 From Jun ’21, -8 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 44 Seats

(+5 From Jun ’21, -25 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 26.79%

(+3.57pp From Jun ’21, -5.96pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 22.99%

(-3.09pp From Jun ’21, +14.05pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.69%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, -6.82pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.75%

(-0.19pp From Jun ’21, -0.89pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.25%

(-1.64pp From Jun ’21, +0.50pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.55%

(+0.53pp From Jun ’21, -2.69pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.98%

(+0.53pp From Jun ’21, +1.98pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 31.67%

(+3.88pp From Jun ’21, -5.59pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 21.54%

(-3.20pp From Jun ’21, +13.53pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 17.19%

(+0.16pp From Jun ’21, -7.45pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.13%

(-0.33pp From Jun ’21, -0.33pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.66%

(-1.23pp From Jun ’21, +0.66pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.33%

(+0.43pp From Jun ’21, -2.22pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.48%

(+0.29pp From Jun ’21, +1.40pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 28.95% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 19.77% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.16% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.39%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.51%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.15%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 7.07%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 June Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JUNE ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in Germany, we are projecting that it is too close to call between the Union parties & the Greens. On the other hand, there is also a heat for the 3rd place as Social Democrats fall, Free Democrats gain, Alternative for Germany goes down.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From Jun ’21)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 184 Seats

(+6 From May ’21, -74 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 167 Seats

(-19 From May ’21, +100 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 87 Seats

(-3 From May ’21, -66 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 82 Seats

(+10 From May ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 82 Seats

(+1 From May ’21, -12 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 39 Seats

(-6 From May ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 26.08%

(-3.09pp From May ’21, +17.14pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 23.22%

(+1.93pp From May ’21, -9.53pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.40%

(+0.28pp From May ’21, -7.11pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 12.89%

(+1.63pp From May ’21, +2.14pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.94%

(-0.24pp From May ’21, -0.70pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.02%

(-0.80pp From May ’21, -3.22pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.45%

(+0.29pp From May ’21, +1.45pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 27.79%

(+2.30pp From May ’21, -9.47pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 24.74%

(-2.94pp From May ’21, +16.73pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 17.03%

(+0.34pp From May ’21, -7.61pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.46%

(-0.23pp From May ’21, +0.00pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 8.89%

(+1.12pp From May ’21, +1.89pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 5.90%

(-0.78pp From May ’21, -2.65pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.19%

(+0.19pp From May ’21, +1.11pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 25.28% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 22.61% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.96% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 13.16%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.77%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.63%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.59%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Germany, we are projecting that The Greens will now likely be the largest group in the next Bundestag as they make enormous gains. Oppositely, the Union parties have crashed down again and will be behind at second even with their strong grounds on individual constituencies. On the other hand, the Social Democrats have just less than 100 seats mainly due to the rise of The Greens. Alternative for Germany, Free Democrats are now steady and The Left are down slightly from the last election.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (*Including Both Leveling Seats & Overhang Seats From Apr ’21)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 186 Seats

(+4 From Apr ’21, +119 From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 178 Seats

(-30 From Apr ’21, -80 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 90 Seats

(-4 From Apr ’21, -63 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 81 Seats

(+2 From Apr ’21, -13 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 72 Seats

(+12 From Apr ’21, -8 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 45 Seats

(+1 From Apr ’21, -24 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 29.17%

(+0.63pp From Apr ’21, +20.23pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 21.29%

(-2.13pp From Apr ’21, -11.46pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.12%

(-1.03pp From Apr ’21, -7.39pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 12.18%

(+0.55pp From Apr ’21, -0.46pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.26%

(+1.93pp From Apr ’21, +0.51pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.82%

(+0.26pp From Apr ’21, -2.42pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.16%

(-0.21pp From Apr ’21, +1.16pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 27.68%

(+0.94pp From Apr ’21, +19.67pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 25.49%

(-2.20pp From Apr ’21, -11.77pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 16.69%

(-1.08pp From Apr ’21, -7.95pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.69%

(+0.67pp From Apr ’21, +0.23pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.77%

(+1.41pp From Apr ’21, +0.77pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.68%

(+0.34pp From Apr ’21, -1.87pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.00%

(-0.08pp From Apr ’21, +0.92pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 25.44% 

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 23.32% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.73% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.57%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.05%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.82%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.16%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SbKCbFUUy4CFHNovpuAkZpWY8YYh7vDNoQv0m6wpQOM/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 April Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s April Projection in Germany, we are projecting that the Union parties has crashed down after the Mask Corruption Scandal and as the result they are not leading over the Greens on the vote level anymore. However, they will still be the largest group in the next Bundestag after strong grounds on individual constituencies. In the other hand, The Greens are expected to make huge gains and now even up to the first place on the vote level. While the Social Democrats have just less than 100 seats mainly due to rise of Greens. Alternative for Germany, Free Democrats, The Left are down slightly from the last election.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (*Including Both Leveling Seats & Overhang Seats From Apr ’21)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 208 Seats

(+13 From Mar ’21, -50 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 182 Seats

(+29 From Mar ’21, +115 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 94 Seats

(+5 From Mar ’21, -59 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 79 Seats

(+10 From Mar ’21, -15 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 60 Seats

(+11 From Mar ’21, -20 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 44 Seats

(-4 From Mar ’21, -25 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 28.54%

(+4.47pp From Mar ’21, +19.60pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 23.42%

(-7.20pp From Mar ’21, -9.33pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.15%

(+0.10pp From Mar ’21, -6.36pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.63%

(+0.99pp From Mar ’21, -1.01pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 9.33%

(+1.55pp From Mar ’21, -1.42pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.56%

(-0.44pp From Mar ’21, -2.68pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.37%

(+0.53pp From Mar ’21, +1.37pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 27.69%

(-7.71pp From Mar ’21, -9.57pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 26.74%

(+4.70pp From Mar ’21, +18.73pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 17.77%

(+0.53pp From Mar ’21, -6.87pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.02%

(+1.16pp From Mar ’21, -0.44pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 6.36%

(+1.18pp From Mar ’21, -0.64pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.34%

(-0.28pp From Mar ’21, -2.21pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.08%

(+0.42pp From Mar ’21, +1.00pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 26.55% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 21.89% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 16.44% 

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.92%

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 9.92%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.51%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.77%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YuF2c6rrl5F6gxO86dlQH-8Wv6Xeas0AXHSJJcGfsHA/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 March Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in Germany, we are projecting that the Union parties will be remaining as the largest group. On the other hand, the Greens are expected to make a push to second place while the Social Democrats have slipped to their lowest point in a federal election with less than 100 seats. Alternative for Germany, Free Democrats, The Left is down slightly from the last election.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (*Only Including Leveling Seats, No Overhang Seats Included.)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 195 Seats

(-12 From Feb ’21, -51 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 153 Seats

(-3 From Feb ’21, +86 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 89 Seats

(+4 From Feb ’21, -64 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 69 Seats

(+4 From Feb ’21, -25 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 49 Seats

(+6 From Feb ’21, -31 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 48 Seats

(+3 From Feb ’21, -21 From Last Election)

Others(SONST / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 30.62%

(-1.84pp From Feb ’21, -2.31pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 24.07%

(-0.51pp From Feb ’21, +15.13pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.05%

(+0.65pp From Feb ’21, -6.46pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.64%

(+0.54pp From Feb ’21, -2.00pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.78%

(+0.99pp From Feb ’21, -2.97pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.00%

(+0.38pp From Feb ’21, -2.24pp From Last Election)

Others(SONST / Mixed) : 5.84%

(-0.21pp From Feb ’21, +0.84pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 35.40%

(-1.96pp From Feb ’21, -1.86pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 22.04%

(-0.38pp From Feb ’21, +14.03pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 17.24%

(+0.86pp From Feb ’21, -7.40pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.86%

(+0.54pp From Feb ’21, -1.60pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.62%

(+0.38pp From Feb ’21, -1.93pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 5.18%

(+0.68pp From Feb ’21, -1.82pp From Last Election)

Others(SONST / Mixed) : 3.66%

(-0.12pp From Feb ’21, +0.58pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 34.04% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 18.11% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 16.00% 

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.79%

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 8.10%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.87%

Others(SONST / Mixed) : 6.09%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UQmzPe827KKD4_DFgSvblZmf1UBmJkXu4Yi76l-oxzM/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 February Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Germany, we are projecting that the Union will be remaining as the largest group. In the other hand, the Greens are expected to make a push to second while the Social Democrats slipped to their lowest point in a federal election. Alternative for Germany, Free Democrats, The Left is down slightly from the last election.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (*Only Including Leveling Seats, No Overhang Seats Included.)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 207 Seats

(-1 From Jan ’21, -39 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 156 Seats

(+25 From Jan ’21, +89 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 85 Seats

(-6 From Jan ’21, -68 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 66 Seats

(-9 From Jan ’21, -28 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 45 Seats

(-3 From Jan ’21, -24 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 43 Seats

(-7 From Jan ’21, -37 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 32.46%

(-0.02pp From Jan ’21, -0.47pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 24.58%

(+4.08pp From Jan ’21, +15.64pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.40%

(-0.73pp From Jan ’21, -7.11pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.10%

(-0.92pp From Jan ’21, -2.54pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 6.79%

(-0.98pp From Jan ’21, -3.96pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.62%

(-0.74pp From Jan ’21, -2.62pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.05%

(-0.69pp From Jan ’21, +1.05pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 37.36%

(-0.10pp From Jan ’21, +0.10pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 22.42%

(+3.69pp From Jan ’21, +14.41pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 16.38%

(-0.92pp From Jan ’21, -8.26pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.32%

(-0.87pp From Jan ’21, -2.14pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.24%

(-0.71pp From Jan ’21, -2.31pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 4.50%

(-0.66pp From Jan ’21, -2.50pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.78%

(-0.43pp From Jan ’21, +0.70pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 36.09% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 18.50% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.27% 

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.31%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.44%

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.08%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.31%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XJ1cHWk1xFbkmtth6h0pTGnEw3B0PLMPn9sICbg7N3g/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/