Canada

[Canada General Election]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Canada, we are projecting that it is extremely close between the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau and the Conservatives led by Erin O’ Toole.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Liberal Party(LPC / Lean-Left) : 146 Seats

(+19 From Sep ’21, -11 From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CPC / Center-Right) : 123 Seats

(-23 From Sep ’21, +2 From Last Election)

New Democratic Party(NDP / Center-Left) : 35 Seats

(-5 From Sep ’21, +11 From Last Election)

Quebecers’ Bloc(BQ / Center-Left) : 32 Seats

(+8 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GPC / Left-wing) : 2 Seats

(+1 From Sep ’21, -1 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PPC / Right-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, -1 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Liberal Party(LPC / Lean-Left) : 31.53%

(+0.68pp From Sep ’21, -1.59pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CPC / Center-Right) : 31.06%

(-2.62pp From Sep ’21, -3.28pp From Last Election)

New Democratic Party(NDP / Center-Left) : 19.68%

(-1.15pp From Sep ’21, +3.70pp From Last Election)

Quebecers’ Bloc(BQ / Center-Left) : 6.78%

(+0.38pp From Sep ’21, -0.85pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PPC / Right-wing) : 6.35%

(+2.40pp From Sep ’21, +4.73pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GPC / Left-wing) : 3.45%

(+0.20pp From Sep’ 21, -3.10pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.15%

(+0.11pp From Sep ’21, +0.39pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Canada

[Canada General Election]2021 September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

SEPTEMBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in Canada, we are projecting that it is too close to call between the Conservatives led by Erin O’ Toole and the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CPC / Center-Right) : 146 Seats

(+25 From Last Election)

Liberal Party(LPC / Lean-Left) : 127 Seats

(-30 From Last Election)

New Democratic Party(NDP / Center-Left) : 40 Seats

(+16 From Last Election)

Quebecers’ Bloc(BQ / Center-Left) : 24 Seats

(-8 From Last Election)

Green Party(GPC / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(-2 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PPC / Right-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CPC / Center-Right) : 33.68%

(-0.66pp From Last Election)

Liberal Party(LPC / Lean-Left) : 30.85%

(-2.27pp From Last Election)

New Democratic Party(NDP / Center-Left) : 20.83%

(+4.85pp From Last Election)

Quebecers’ Bloc(BQ / Center-Left) : 6.40%

(-1.23pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PPC / Right-wing) : 3.95%

(+2.33pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GPC / Left-wing) : 3.25%

(-3.30pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.04%

(+0.28pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Canada

[GHESC Polling Average]Canada General(Legislative) Election Polling Average & Seat Projections for Entire June

According to our GEHSC’s polling average data on Canada, it had Center-Right Conservatives and Center-Left Liberals on a pretty-close race with-in the margain of error, which is around 土50 seats on the seat level and 土 5%p on the vote share level(Margain of Error is based on the one of 338Canada.com).

Conservatives are on 35.31% with 159 seats, up almost until the election results of 2011, under Stephen Harper. Oppositely, the Ruling Liberals are at 29.98% with 137 seats. Even though PM Justin Trudeau’s popularity got down, that would still give the best results since 2004 – but that’s certainly excluding 2015 figures.

Moving on to New Democrats, they’re actually projected to get 14.43% and 22 seats -which is only half of the seats of what they got in the last general election. This should be because of two-party-politics’ comback – as I previously mentioned – and the surge of the Greens.

Green Party of Canada is on 11.32% with 7 seats, which will be their best results ever in party history and expanding the vote share, seat number by four & seven times compared to 2015. When this numbers continues to the most-important real election, it would probably make Canada with as the nation with one of the strongest-Green politics worldwide.

In addition, the Bloc Québécois or Quebec Party will be on 13 seats, adding their seats still with 0.01%p less support in votes. Right-wing People’s Party – which split from the Conservatives in mid-2018 and is led by Maxime Bernier – is at 2.91% but no seats. But it is very possible that their leader Mr. Bernier holding his seat after they are projected to get 0.4 seats.

This polling average is based on 22,333 samples or 13 opinion polls conducted between June 1st and June 30th. For more details, look at the following spreadsheet :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J_l8Hl9ibqIO7LvLOJLGYLyWQEKJWsqnRH_5cuLm4Z0