FINAL ’23 R2 PROJECTION

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Turkey, we are projecting it is Too Close To Call between incumbent president Recep Erdoğan & opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHUR / Right-wing) : 52.24%

(+0.27pp From 05/27 ’23, -0.35pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 47.76%

(-0.27pp From 05/27 ’23, +0.35pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

Hatay – KILIÇDAROĞLU +0.34pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Manisa – ERDOĞAN +0.50pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Artvin – ERDOĞAN +0.64pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Ankara – KILIÇDAROĞLU +1.68pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Yalova – ERDOĞAN +1.84pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Uşak – ERDOĞAN +1.92pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

İstanbul – KILIÇDAROĞLU +2.18pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

Balıkesir – KILIÇDAROĞLU +4.48pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Bitlis – KILIÇDAROĞLU +4.92pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

Denizli – KILIÇDAROĞLU +5.48pp

Adana – KILIÇDAROĞLU +7.64pp

Bilecik – ERDOĞAN +8.64pp

Eskişehir – KILIÇDAROĞLU +9.84pp

-Other Races

Zonguldak – ERDOĞAN +10.22pp

Burdur – ERDOĞAN +10.76pp

Bursa – ERDOĞAN +11.30pp

Antalya – KILIÇDAROĞLU +14.78pp

Siirt – KILIÇDAROĞLU +15.32pp

Isparta – ERDOĞAN +16.04pp

Kırşehir – ERDOĞAN +16.04pp

Kocaeli – ERDOĞAN +16.30pp

Kars – KILIÇDAROĞLU +16.54pp

Çanakkale – KILIÇDAROĞLU +16.60pp

Yurtdışı – ERDOĞAN +17.22pp

Tekirdağ – KILIÇDAROĞLU +17.76pp

Ardahan – KILIÇDAROĞLU +18.20pp

Amasya – ERDOĞAN +18.86pp

Aydın – KILIÇDAROĞLU +19.62pp

Bartın – ERDOĞAN +19.98pp

Muş – KILIÇDAROĞLU +20.36pp

Mersin – KILIÇDAROĞLU +20.98pp

Sinop – ERDOĞAN +23.56pp

Niğde – ERDOĞAN +24.58pp

Erzincan – ERDOĞAN +24.66pp

Şanlıurfa – ERDOĞAN +26.06pp

Gaziantep – ERDOĞAN +26.10pp

Van – KILIÇDAROĞLU +27.46pp

Giresun – ERDOĞAN +28.10pp

Karabük – ERDOĞAN +29.04pp

Giresun – ERDOĞAN +29.22pp

Çorum – ERDOĞAN +29.68pp

Ordu – ERDOĞAN +30.64pp

Bolu – ERDOĞAN +31.68pp

Samsun – ERDOĞAN +32.06pp

Bingöl – ERDOĞAN +32.86pp

Karaman– ERDOĞAN +33.14pp

Edirne – KILIÇDAROĞLU +33.16pp

Osmaniye – ERDOĞAN +33.22pp

Tokat – ERDOĞAN +33.22pp

Muğla – KILIÇDAROĞLU +33.46pp

İzmir – KILIÇDAROĞLU +33.84pp

Nevşehir – ERDOĞAN +33.96pp

Mardin – KILIÇDAROĞLU +34.48pp

Ağrı – KILIÇDAROĞLU +35.16pp

Adıyaman – ERDOĞAN +35.40pp

Kırklareli – KILIÇDAROĞLU +36.46pp

Afyonkarahisar – ERDOĞAN +36.94pp

Batman – KILIÇDAROĞLU +37.30pp

Kayseri – ERDOĞAN +38.96pp

Trabzon – ERDOĞAN +39.00pp

Sakarya – ERDOĞAN +39.20pp

Elazığ – ERDOĞAN +40.44pp

Kilis – ERDOĞAN +40.72pp

Kastamonu – ERDOĞAN +41.04pp

Kütahya – ERDOĞAN +42.14pp

Iğdır – KILIÇDAROĞLU +42.50pp

Malatya – ERDOĞAN +43.50pp

Düzce – ERDOĞAN +46.14pp

Diyarbak – KILIÇDAROĞLU +46.34pp

Erzurum – ERDOĞAN +46.84pp

Sivas – ERDOĞAN +47.86pp

Konya – ERDOĞAN +47.90pp

Hakkâri – KILIÇDAROĞLU +49.30pp

Aksaray – ERDOĞAN +51.66pp

Kahramanmaraş – ERDOĞAN +52.16pp

Rize – ERDOĞAN +53.02pp

Yozgat – ERDOĞAN +54.08pp

Çankırı – ERDOĞAN +55.26pp

Tunceli – KILIÇDAROĞLU +56.02pp

Gümüşhane – ERDOĞAN +57.28pp

Tunceli – KILIÇDAROĞLU +66.42pp

Bayburt – ERDOĞAN +66.96pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Turkey Presidential Election R2 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 40 polling data(750,851 unweighted / 171,079 weighted sample size – largest ever!!!) fieldwork done between 5/20 and 5/27. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

[Turkey Presidential Election]2023 2nd Round R1 BASE Projection / Prediction / Forecast

27th May 202327th May 2023 mglee05

R1 BASE ’23 R2 PROJECTION

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s R1 BASE Projection in Turkey, we are projecting it is Too Close To Call between incumbent president Recep Erdoğan & opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHUR / Right-wing) : 52.22%

(+1.14pp From First ’23, -0.37pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 47.78%

(-1.14pp From First ’23, +0.37pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Turkey Presidential Election R1 BASE Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects the results of the 1st Round. R1 BASE Projection is calculated by allocating votes of R1 based on political spectrum and support of each candidates & parties/alliances.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]2023 2nd Round First Projection / Prediction / Forecast

19th May 202327th May 2023 mglee05

First ’23 R2 PROJECTION

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s First Projection in Turkey, we are projecting it is Extremely Close between incumbent president Recep Erdoğan & opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Poll+Error

(Reflecting R1 Polling Error)

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHUR / Right-wing) : 51.08%

(-1.51pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 48.92%

(+1.51pp From Last Election)

-Poll Base

(Not Reflecting R1 Polling Error)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 51.26%

(+3.85pp From Last Election)

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHUR / Right-wing) : 48.74%

(-3.85pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Turkey Presidential Election R2 First Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 13 polling data(51,956 unweighted / 37,963 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 5/6 and 5/13. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]2023 1st Round FINAL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

15th May 202327th May 2023 mglee05

FINAL ’23 R1 PROJECTION

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in Turkey, we are projecting it is Extremely Close between incumbent president Recep Erdoğan & opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Projection Excluding Muharrem İnce

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 48.29%

(+2.51pp From May ’23, +1.08pp From Last Election)

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHUR / Right-wing) : 48.27%

(+1.15pp From May ’23, -4.52pp From Last Election)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 3.44%

(+0.98pp From May ’23, NEW PARTY)

-Projection Including Muharrem İnce

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHUR / Right-wing) : 47.86%

(+0.77pp From May ’23, -4.93pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 47.66%

(-4.93pp From May ’23, +0.45pp From Last Election)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 3.27%

(+0.81pp From May ’23, NEW PARTY)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 1.21%

(-3.45pp From May ’23, NEW PARTY)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Turkey Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 42 polling data(243,057 unweighted / 156,643 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 5/6 and 5/13. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]5/12 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

12th May 2023 mglee05

5/12 ’23 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO

_DATA

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 47.97%

(+0.97pp From 5/11 ’23, -4.82pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 46.90%

(-0.11pp From 5/11 ’23, -0.31pp From Last Election)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 2.79%

(+0.04pp From 5/11 ’23, NEW PARTY)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 2.34%

(-0.90pp From 5/11 ’23, NEW PARTY)

_TREND

Erdoğan once again back on the lead in single day.

But remains a very close race between Erdoğan & Kılıçdaroğlu.

_AGE

Total = Erdoğan 47.97%, Kılıçdaroğlu 46.90%, Oğan 2.79%, İnce 2.34% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

18~29 = Kılıçdaroğlu 49.45%, Erdoğan 45.55%, Oğan 2.68%, İnce 2.32% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

30~44 = Erdoğan 48.46%, Kılıçdaroğlu 46.66%, Oğan 2.78%, İnce 2.10% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

45+ = Erdoğan 49.14%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.45%, Oğan 2.86%, İnce 2.55% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 5/12 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 17 polling data(144,938 unweighted / 65,853 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 5/3 and 5/10. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

turkey-presidential-election-polling-follower-2023-05-12-special Download

[2023 Turkey Presidential Election]Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]5/11 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

11th May 2023 mglee05

5/11 ’23 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO

_DATA

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 47.01%

(+0.51pp From 5/10 ’23, -0.20pp From Last Election)

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 47.00%

(-0.34pp From 5/10 ’23, -5.79pp From Last Election)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 3.24%

(-0.07pp From 5/10 ’23, NEW PARTY)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 2.75%

(-0.10pp From 5/10 ’23, NEW PARTY)

_TREND

Kemal again over Erdoğan for the first time in nine days.

But remains a very close race between Erdoğan & Kılıçdaroğlu.

_AGE

Total = Kılıçdaroğlu 47.01%, Erdoğan 47.00%, İnce 3.24%, Oğan 2.75% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

18~29 = Kılıçdaroğlu 49.55%, Erdoğan 44.60%, İnce 3.20%, Oğan 2.65% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

30~44 = Erdoğan 47.53%, Kılıçdaroğlu 46.82%, İnce 2.90%, Oğan 2.75% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

45+ = Erdoğan 48.12%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.54%, İnce 3.52%, Oğan 2.82% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 5/11 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 24 polling data(112,351 unweighted / 71,418 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/30 and 5/7. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

turkey-presidential-election-polling-follower-2023-05-11-extra Download

[2023 Turkey Presidential Election]Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]2023 May Projection / Prediction / Forecast

7th May 20237th May 2023 mglee05

MAY ’23 PROJECTION

_FULL GRAPHICS

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Turkey, we are projecting it is Extremely Close between incumbent president Recep Erdoğan & opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Meanwhile, Muharrem İnce & Sinan Oğan follow after at 3rd, 4th place.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 47.09%

(+1.19pp From First ’23, -5.70pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 45.79%

(-2.62pp From First ’23, -1.42pp From Last Election)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 4.66%

(+0.69pp From First ’23, NEW PARTY)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 2.46%

(+0.74pp From First ’23, NEW PARTY)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS (May)

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS (First)

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Turkey Presidential Election May Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 29 polling data(101,698 unweighted / 81,388 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/23 and 4/30. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]5/4 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

5th May 20237th May 2023 mglee05

5/4 ’23 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO

_DATA

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 47.82%

(+1.31pp From 5/3 ’23, -4.97pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 45.38%

(-0.35pp From 5/3 ’23, -1.83pp From Last Election)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 4.48%

(-0.90pp From 5/3 ’23, NEW PARTY)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 2.32%

(-0.06pp From 5/3 ’23, NEW PARTY)

_TREND

Erdoğan expands his lead for the second day.

But remains a very close race between Erdoğan & Kılıçdaroğlu.

_AGE

Total = Erdoğan 47.82%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.38%, İnce 4.48%, Oğan 2.32% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

18~29 = Kılıçdaroğlu 47.89%, Erdoğan 45.44%, İnce 4.44%, Oğan 2.23% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

30~44 = Erdoğan 48.41%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.25%, İnce 4.02%, Oğan 2.32% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

45+ = Erdoğan 48.88%, Kılıçdaroğlu 43.88%, İnce 4.86%, Oğan 2.38% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 5/4 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 20 polling data(76,328 unweighted / 61,744 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/25 and 5/2. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

turkey-presidential-election-polling-follower-2023-05-04-last Download

[2023 Turkey Presidential Election]Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]5/3 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

3rd May 20237th May 2023 mglee05

5/3 ’23 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO

_DATA

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 46.51%

(-0.22pp From 5/2 ’23, -6.28pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 45.73%

(-1.00pp From 5/2 ’23, -1.48pp From Last Election)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 5.38%

(+1.28pp From 5/2 ’23, NEW PARTY)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 2.38%

(-0.06pp From 5/2 ’23, NEW PARTY)

_TREND

Erdoğan retakes the lead just in another single day. 4th flip in 5 days.

Remaining a very close race between Erdoğan & Kılıçdaroğlu.

_AGE

Total = Erdoğan 46.51%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.73%, İnce 5.38%, Oğan 2.38% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

18~29 = Kılıçdaroğlu 48.22%, Erdoğan 44.17%, İnce 5.33%, Oğan 2.28% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

30~44 = Erdoğan 47.14%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.65%, İnce 4.83%, Oğan 2.38% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

45+ = Erdoğan 47.53%, Kılıçdaroğlu 44.20%, İnce 5.84%, Oğan 2.43% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 5/3 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 18 polling data(2,176,869 unweighted / 56,053 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/23 and 4/30. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

turkey-presidential-election-polling-follower-2023-05-03 Download

[2023 Turkey Presidential Election]Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]5/2 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

2nd May 20232nd May 2023 mglee05

5/2 ’23 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO

_DATA

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 46.73%

(+0.37pp From 5/1 ’22, -0.48pp From Last Election)

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 46.73%

(-0.25pp From 5/1 ’22, -6.06pp From Last Election)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 4.10%

(-0.13pp From 5/1 ’22, NEW PARTY)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 2.44%

(+0.01pp From 5/1 ’22, NEW PARTY)

_TREND

Kılıçdaroğlu retakes the lead just in a single day.

Remaining a very close race between Erdoğan & Kılıçdaroğlu.

_AGE

Total = Kılıçdaroğlu 46.73%, Erdoğan 46.73%, İnce 4.23%, Oğan 2.43% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

18~29 = Kılıçdaroğlu 49.25%, Erdoğan 44.34%, İnce 4.06%, Oğan 2.35% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

30~44 = Erdoğan 47.30%, Kılıçdaroğlu 46.58%, İnce 3.67%, Oğan 2.45% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

45+ = Erdoğan 47.81%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.23%, İnce 4.45%, Oğan 2.51% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 5/2 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 15 polling data(2,162,359 unweighted / 43,401 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/23 and 4/30. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.