Asia, South Korea, SPECIAL - 2022 SK Presidential Election

[South Korea Presidential Election]2022 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’22 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that it is Too Close To Call between Yoon Seok-youl & Lee Jae-myung. Sim Sang-jung and Huh Kyung-young follow after.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 49.62%

(+5.76pp From Feb ’22, +18.73pp From Last Election) (<-AHN Supported YOON)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 45.80%

(+6.04pp From Feb ’22, +4.71pp From Last Election) <-KIM Supported LEE

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 2.61%

(-0.38pp From Feb ’22, -3.56pp From Last Election)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 0.56%

(+0.04pp From Feb ’22, NEW PARTY)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : W/D

(-11.03pp From Feb ’22, -21.41pp From Last Election)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : W/D

(-0.32pp From Feb ’22, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.41%

(-0.43pp From Feb ’22, +0.98pp From Last Election)

_PROVINCE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

IN​(Incheon) – ​LEE +0.71pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

GY​(Gyeonggi) – ​LEE +1.55pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

SU​(Seoul) – ​YOON +2.55pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

DJ​(Daejeon) – ​LEE +4.09pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

CN​(Chungnam) – ​YOON +7.18pp

CB(Chungbuk) – ​YOON +9.93pp

-Other Races

UL​(Ulsan) – ​YOON +12.76pp

JJ(Jeju) – ​LEE +13.21pp

BU​(Busan) – ​YOON +16.84pp

GA​(Gangwon) – ​YOON +19.46pp

SJ(Sejong) – ​LEE +22.72pp

GN​(Gyeongnam) – ​YOON +24.21pp

GB(Gyeongbuk) – ​YOON +47.32pp

DG​(Daegu) – ​YOON +48.12pp

JB(Jeonbuk) – ​LEE +59.67pp

JN(Jeonnam) – ​LEE +63.58pp

GW(Gwangju) – ​LEE +69.64pp

_GENERAL ELECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 43.18%

(+1.35pp From Feb ’22, +9.34pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 42.34%

(-0.11pp From Feb ’22, +3.66pp From Last Election) <- ODP Merged Into DPK

People Party(TPP / Lean-Right) : 7.64%

(-1.22pp From Feb ’22, +0.84pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JUS / Center-Left) : 4.48%

(+0.29pp From Feb ’22, -5.19pp From Last Election)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.07%

(+0.00pp From Feb ’22, NEW PARTY)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.06%

(-0.03pp From Feb ’22, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.23%

(-0.28pp From Feb ’22, -8.78pp From Last Election)

_PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 46.52%

(+2.87pp From Feb ’22, -9.68pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 53.48%

(-2.87pp From Feb ’22, +9.68pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 South Korea Presidential Election FINAL(March) Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 52 polling data(total 65,969 sample size – both record number of polling data & sample size for SK) fieldwork done between 2/23 and 3/2 and reported on National Election Survey Deliberation Commission(NESDC)’s Opinion Poll Status. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data. For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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Asia, South Korea, SPECIAL - 2022 SK Presidential Election

[South Korea Presidential Election]2022 3/3 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

3/3 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR MARCH WEEK 1

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 44.95%

(+0.48pp From 3/2 ’21, +14.06pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 42.84%

(+0.38pp From 3/2 ’21, +1.75pp From Last Election)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 7.91%

(-0.41pp From 3/2 ’21, -13.50pp From Last Election)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 2.56%

(-0.23pp From 3/2 ’21, -3.62pp From Last Election)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 0.46%

(-0.11pp From 3/2 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : W/D

(-0.20pp From 3/2 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.28%

(+0.09pp From 3/2 ’21, +0.85pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

-Age Projections

~20s – YOON 42.35%, LEE 32.25%, AHN 15.55%, SIM 7.37%, HUH 0.77%, KIM W/D, OTHERS 1.71%

30s – YOON 40.94%, LEE 40.63%, AHN 13.15%, SIM 3.14%, HUH 0.44%, KIM W/D, OTHERS 1.80%

40s – LEE 57.85%, YOON 31.41%, AHN 6.78%, SIM 1.77%, HUH 0.66%, KIM W/D, OTHERS 1.53%

50s – LEE 51.06%, YOON 40.35%, AHN 5.69%, SIM 1.59%, HUH 0.40%, KIM W/D, OTHERS 0.91%

60s~ – YOON 59.21%, LEE 33.59%, AHN 4.29%, SIM 1.34%, HUH 0.46%, KIM W/D, OTHERS 1.11%

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 3/3 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 33 polling data(total 39,496 sample size) fieldwork done between 2/22 and 3/1 and reported on National Election Survey Deliberation Commission(NESDC)’s Opinion Poll Status. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

Asia, South Korea, SPECIAL - 2022 SK Presidential Election

[South Korea Presidential Election]2022 3/2 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

3/2 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR FEBRUARY WEEK 4

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 44.47%

(+0.07pp From 3/1 ’21, +13.58pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 42.46%

(+0.13pp From 3/1 ’21, +1.37pp From Last Election)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 8.32%

(+0.10pp From 3/1 ’21, -13.09pp From Last Election)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 2.79%

(-0.08pp From 3/1 ’21, -3.39pp From Last Election)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 0.57%

(-0.05pp From 3/1 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : 0.20%

(+0.03pp From 3/1 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.19%

(-0.20pp From 3/1 ’21, +0.76pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

-Age Projections

~20s – YOON 41.38%, LEE 30.20%, AHN 17.10%, SIM 8.31%, HUH 1.02%, KIM 0.03%, OTHERS 1.96%

30s – LEE 40.73%, YOON 40.04%, AHN 13.72%, SIM 3.23%, HUH 0.61%, KIM 0.03%, OTHERS 1.96%

40s – LEE 58.66%, YOON 30.23%, AHN 6.98%, SIM 1.74%, HUH 0.80%, KIM 0.21%, OTHERS 1.38%

50s – LEE 50.95%, YOON 40.14%, AHN 5.71%, SIM 1.66%, HUH 0.51%, KIM 0.12%, OTHERS 0.91%

60s~ – YOON 59.67%, LEE 32.81%, AHN 4.44%, SIM 1.36%, HUH 0.52%, KIM 0.16%, OTHERS 1.04%

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 3/2 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 26 polling data(total 29,467 sample size) fieldwork done between 2/22 and 3/1 and reported on National Election Survey Deliberation Commission(NESDC)’s Opinion Poll Status. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

Asia, South Korea, SPECIAL - 2022 SK Presidential Election

[South Korea Presidential Election]2022 3/1 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

3/1 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR FEBRUARY WEEK 4

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 44.40%

(-0.50pp From 2/28 ’21, +13.51pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 42.33%

(+0.38pp From 2/28 ’21, +1.24pp From Last Election)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 8.22%

(+0.11pp From 2/28 ’21, -13.19pp From Last Election)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 2.87%

(-0.12pp From 2/28 ’21, -3.31pp From Last Election)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 0.62%

(+0.09pp From 2/28 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : 0.17%

(+0.00pp From 2/28 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.39%

(+0.04pp From 2/28 ’21, +0.96pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

-Age Projections

~20s – YOON 42.34%, LEE 30.66%, AHN 15.76%, SIM 8.28%, HUH 1.06%, KIM 0.12%, OTHERS 1.78%

30s – YOON 40.96%, LEE 40.96%, AHN 12.23%, SIM 3.46%, HUH 0.51%, KIM 0.10%, OTHERS 1.78%

40s – LEE 59.07%, YOON 30.14%, AHN 6.77%, SIM 1.57%, HUH 0.72%, KIM 0.21%, OTHERS 1.52%

50s – LEE 50.88%, YOON 40.04%, AHN 5.76%, SIM 1.56%, HUH 0.48%, KIM 0.20%, OTHERS 1.08%

60s~ – YOON 58.83%, LEE 33.22%, AHN 4.75%, SIM 1.35%, HUH 0.50%, KIM 0.19%, OTHERS 1.16%

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 3/1 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 27 polling data(total 29,742 sample size) fieldwork done between 2/20 and 2/27 and reported on National Election Survey Deliberation Commission(NESDC)’s Opinion Poll Status. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

Asia, South Korea, SPECIAL - 2022 SK Presidential Election

[South Korea Presidential Election]2022 February VIRTUAL Election Night Results Coverage – All Calculation Data

-Globe Elections UN Video

-Main Calculation Data (2022 Feb.)

***Final Vote Totals Calculated By ((2017Presidential/2018Local)2020General), Partial Vote Totals Based On 2017 Election(Presidential) Results, All Vote Shares Based On Globe Elections UN Polling Follower (2/28 ’22 – Partial)+2017 Election(Presidential) Situation.

-Past Calculation Data (2017)

***Partial Results Based On 2017 SBS Count.

Asia, South Korea, SPECIAL - 2022 SK Presidential Election

[South Korea Presidential Election]2022 2/28 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

2/28 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR FEBRUARY WEEK 4

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 44.90%

(-0.60pp From 2/27 ’21, +14.01pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 41.95%

(+0.33pp From 2/27 ’21, +0.86pp From Last Election)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 8.11%

(+0.25pp From 2/27 ’21, -13.30pp From Last Election)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 2.99%

(-0.03pp From 2/27 ’21, -3.19pp From Last Election)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 0.53%

(+0.08pp From 2/27 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : 0.17%

(-0.02pp From 2/27 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.35%

(-0.01pp From 2/27 ’21, +0.92pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

-Age Projections

~20s – YOON 42.36%, LEE 31.16%, AHN 14.87%, SIM 8.76%, HUH 1.00%, KIM 0.16%, OTHERS 1.69%

30s – YOON 41.85%, LEE 40.27%, AHN 11.78%, SIM 3.73%, HUH 0.46%, KIM 0.21%, OTHERS 1.70%

40s – LEE 59.15%, YOON 30.40%, AHN 6.30%, SIM 1.66%, HUH 0.70%, KIM 0.19%, OTHERS 1.60%

50s – LEE 49.97%, YOON 40.93%, AHN 6.04%, SIM 1.47%, HUH 0.30%, KIM 0.18%, OTHERS 1.11%

60s~ – YOON 59.58%, LEE 32.72%, AHN 4.65%, SIM 1.24%, HUH 0.43%, KIM 0.19%, OTHERS 1.19%

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 2/28 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 30 polling data(total 30,905 sample size) fieldwork done between 2/19 and 2/26 and reported on National Election Survey Deliberation Commission(NESDC)’s Opinion Poll Status. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

Asia, South Korea, SPECIAL - 2022 SK Presidential Election

[South Korea Presidential Election]2022 2/26 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

2/26 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR FEBRUARY WEEK 4

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 45.59%

(-0.18pp From 2/25 ’21, +14.70pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 41.70%

(+0.45pp From 2/25 ’21, +0.61pp From Last Election)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 7.87%

(+0.02pp From 2/25 ’21, -13.54pp From Last Election)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 3.02%

(-0.03pp From 2/25 ’21, -3.16pp From Last Election)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 0.45%

(-0.04pp From 2/25 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : 0.19%

(-0.01pp From 2/25 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.18%

(-0.21pp From 2/25 ’21, +0.75pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

-Age Projections

~20s – YOON 42.62%, LEE 31.19%, AHN 14.34%, SIM 8.88%, HUH 0.84%, KIM 0.21%, OTHERS 1.92%

30s – YOON 42.85%, LEE 39.49%, AHN 11.51%, SIM 3.81%, HUH 0.38%, KIM 0.30%, OTHERS 1.66%

40s – LEE 58.14%, YOON 31.09%, AHN 6.88%, SIM 1.63%, HUH 0.64%, KIM 0.21%, OTHERS 1.41%

50s – LEE 49.02%, YOON 41.91%, AHN 5.90%, SIM 1.41%, HUH 0.28%, KIM 0.20%, OTHERS 1.28%

60s~ – YOON 60.05%, LEE 32.42%, AHN 4.58%, SIM 1.31%, HUH 0.28%, KIM 0.22%, OTHERS 1.14%

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 2/26 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 31 polling data(total 33,418 sample size) fieldwork done between 2/17 and 2/24 and reported on National Election Survey Deliberation Commission(NESDC)’s Opinion Poll Status. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

Asia, South Korea, SPECIAL - 2022 SK Presidential Election

[South Korea Presidential Election]2022 2/25 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

2/25 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR FEBRUARY WEEK 3

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 45.77%

(-0.40pp From 2/24 ’21, +14.88pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 41.25%

(+0.53pp From 2/24 ’21, +0.16pp From Last Election)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 7.85%

(-0.14pp From 2/24 ’21, -13.56pp From Last Election)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 3.05%

(-0.13pp From 2/24 ’21, -3.13pp From Last Election)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 0.49%

(-0.05pp From 2/24 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : 0.20%

(+0.05pp From 2/24 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.39%

(+0.14pp From 2/24 ’21, +0.96pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

-Age Projections

~20s – YOON 43.44%, LEE 30.89%, AHN 14.07%, SIM 8.85%, HUH 0.63%, KIM 0.25%, OTHERS 1.88%

30s – YOON 44.11%, LEE 38.53%, AHN 11.04%, SIM 3.89%, HUH 0 40%, KIM 0.30%, OTHERS 1.73%

40s – LEE 57.71%, YOON 31.37%, AHN 7.19%, SIM 1.64%, HUH 0.53%, KIM 0.11%, OTHERS 1.45%

50s – LEE 48.62%, YOON 42.05%, AHN 5.80%, SIM 1.65%, HUH 0.30%, KIM 0.17%, OTHERS 1.41%

60s~ – YOON 59.79%, LEE 32.59%, AHN 4.70%, SIM 1.37%, HUH 0.27%, KIM 0.18%, OTHERS 1.10%

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 2/25 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 30 polling data(total 30,260 sample size) fieldwork done between 2/16 and 2/23 and reported on National Election Survey Deliberation Commission(NESDC)’s Opinion Poll Status. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

Asia, South Korea, SPECIAL - 2022 SK Presidential Election

[South Korea Presidential Election]2022 2/24 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

2/24 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR FEBRUARY WEEK 3

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Yoon Seok-youl(PPP / Center-Right) : 46.17%

(-0.21pp From 2/22 ’21, +15.28pp From Last Election)

Lee Jae-myung(DPK / Center-Left) : 40.72%

(+0.40pp From 2/22 ’21, -0.37pp From Last Election)

Ahn Cheol-soo(TPP / Lean-Right) : 7.99%

(-0.12pp From 2/22 ’21, -13.42pp From Last Election)

Sim Sang-jung(JUS / Center-Left) : 3.18%

(+0.02pp From 2/22 ’21, -3.00pp From Last Election)

Huh Kyung-young(NRP / Big Tent) : 0.54%

(-0.19pp From 2/22 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Kim Dong-yeon(NW / Center) : 0.15%

(+0.07pp From 2/22 ’21, NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 1.25%

(+0.03pp From 2/22 ’21, +0.82pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

-Age Projections

~20s – YOON 43.19%, LEE 30.47%, AHN 14.45%, SIM 9.10%, HUH 0.79%, KIM 0.18%, OTHERS 1.82%

30s – YOON 44.41%, LEE 37.81%, AHN 11.47%, SIM 4.04%, HUH 0 56%, KIM 0.25%, OTHERS 1.46%

40s – LEE 57.07%, YOON 31.18%, AHN 7.66%, SIM 1.88%, HUH 0.72%, KIM 0.04%, OTHERS 1.45%

50s – LEE 48.28%, YOON 42.60%, AHN 5.59%, SIM 1.67%, HUH 0.45%, KIM 0.18%, OTHERS 1.23%

60s~ – YOON 60.25%, LEE 32.31%, AHN 4.61%, SIM 1.41%, HUH 0.35%, KIM 0.14%, OTHERS 0.93%

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 2/24 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 23 polling data(total 25,556 sample size) fieldwork done between 2/15 and 2/22 and reported on National Election Survey Deliberation Commission(NESDC)’s Opinion Poll Status. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as Presidential Projection. For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS