[Brazil Presidential Election]2022 2nd Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

FINAL ’22 R2 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in Brazil, we are projecting it is now Extremely Close between former president Lula da Silva and incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro for the next presidency.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 50.50%

(-0.81pp From 10/29 ’22, +5.63pp From Last Election)

Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 49.50%

(+0.81pp From 10/29 ’22, -5.63pp From Last Election)

_STATE PROJECTIONS

-Key Races

MG(Minas Gerais) – ​LULA +2.74pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

ES(Espírito Santo) – ​BOLSONARO +7.46pp (POLL BASE – LULA +0.20pp)

AM(Amazonas) – ​LULA +8.12pp

AP(Amapá) – ​LULA +8.26pp

TO(Tocantins) – ​LULA +10.70pp (POLL BASE – LULA +8.10pp)

RS(Rio Grande do Sul) – ​BOLSONARO +11.78pp (POLL BASE – BOLSONARO +8.02pp)

-Other Races

MS(Mato Grosso do Sul) – ​BOLSONARO +16.22pp

GO(Goiás) – ​BOLSONARO +16.86pp

RJ(Rio de Janeiro) – ​BOLSONARO +18.10pp

PA(Pará) – ​LULA +18.12pp

SP(São Paulo) – ​BOLSONARO +18.14pp

MT(Mato Grosso) – ​BOLSONARO +18.80pp

PR(Paraná) – ​BOLSONARO +22.98pp

AL(Alagoas) – ​LULA +24.96pp

DF(Distrito Federal) – ​BOLSONARO +26.60pp

RN(Rio Grande do Norte) – ​LULA +31.76pp

EX(Exterior) – ​BOLSONARO +32.32pp

PB(Paraíba) – ​LULA +34.80pp

RR(Roraima) – ​BOLSONARO +35.76pp

RO(Rondônia) – ​BOLSONARO +37.12pp

PE(Pernambuco) – ​LULA +37.72pp

SE(Sergipe) – ​LULA +39.70pp

SC(Santa Catarina) – ​BOLSONARO +39.80pp

CE(Ceará) – ​LULA +46.54pp

AC(Acre) – ​BOLSONARO +48.06pp

BA(Bahia) – ​LULA +49.56pp

MA(Maranhão) – ​LULA +50.64pp

PI(Piauí) – ​LULA +57.80pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 Brazil Presidential Election R2 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 23 polling data(total 120,217 unweighted / 112,040 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/22 and 10/29 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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[Brazil Presidential Election]2022 10/29 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

10/29 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR OCTOBER WEEK 5

_LATEST VIDEO FOR OCTOBER 25TH SPECIAL

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 51.31%

(+0.98pp From 10/28 ’22, +6.44pp From Last Election)

Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 48.69%

(-0.98pp From 10/28 ’22, -6.44pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 10/29 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 14 polling data(total 41,978 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/20 and 10/27 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

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[2022 Brazil Presidential Election]Globe Elections UN Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

[Brazil Presidential Election]2022 10/28 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

10/28 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR OCTOBER 25TH SPECIAL

_LATEST VIDEO FOR OCTOBER WEEK 4

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 50.33%

(-0.30pp From 10/27 ’22, +5.46pp From Last Election)

Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 49.67%

(+0.30pp From 10/27 ’22, -5.46pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 10/28 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 16 polling data(total 37,404 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/19 and 10/26 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

globe-elections-un-brazil-presidential-election-polling-follower-2022.10-28Download

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[2022 Brazil Presidential Election]Globe Elections UN Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

[Brazil Presidential Election]2022 10/27 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

10/27 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR OCTOBER 25TH SPECIAL

_LATEST VIDEO FOR OCTOBER WEEK 4

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 50.63%

(+0.40pp From 10/26 ’22, +5.76pp From Last Election)

Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 49.37%

(-0.40pp From 10/26 ’22, -5.76pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 10/27 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 18 polling data(total 44,819 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/18 and 10/25 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

globe-elections-un-brazil-presidential-election-polling-follower-2022.10-27Download

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[2022 Brazil Presidential Election]Globe Elections UN Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

[Brazil Presidential Election]2022 10/26 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

10/26 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR OCTOBER 25TH SPECIAL

_LATEST VIDEO FOR OCTOBER WEEK 4

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 50.23%

(+0.34pp From 10/25 ’22, +5.36pp From Last Election)

Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 49.77%

(-0.34pp From 10/25 ’22, -5.36pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 10/26 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 16 polling data(total 49,831 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/17 and 10/24 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

globe-elections-un-brazil-presidential-election-polling-follower-2022.10-26Download

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[2022 Brazil Presidential Election]Globe Elections UN Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

[Brazil Presidential Election]2022 10/25 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

10/25 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR OCTOBER 25TH SPECIAL

_LATEST VIDEO FOR OCTOBER WEEK 4

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 50.11%

(+0.44pp From 10/23 ’22, -5.02pp From Last Election)

Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 49.89%

(-0.44pp From 10/23 ’22, +5.02pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 10/25 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 12 polling data(total 42,841 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/16 and 10/23 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

globe-elections-un-brazil-presidential-election-polling-follower-2022.10-25Download

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[2022 Brazil Presidential Election]Globe Elections UN Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

[Brazil Presidential Election]2022 10/23 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

10/23 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR OCTOBER WEEK 4

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 50.33%

(-1.33pp From 10/22 ’22, +5.46pp From Last Election)

Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 49.67%

(+1.33pp From 10/21 ’22, -5.46pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 10/23 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 13 polling data(total 50,377 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/13 and 10/20 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

globe-elections-un-brazil-presidential-election-polling-follower-2022.10-23Download

[2022 Brazil Presidential Election]Globe Elections UN Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

[Brazil Presidential Election]2022 10/22 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

10/22 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR OCTOBER WEEK 3

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 51.66%

(-0.02pp From 10/21 ’22, +6.79pp From Last Election)

Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 48.34%

(+0.02pp From 10/21 ’22, -6.79pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 10/22 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 16 polling data(total 32,566 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/12 and 10/19 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

globe-elections-un-brazil-presidential-election-polling-follower-2022.10-22Download

[2022 Brazil Presidential Election]Globe Elections UN Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

[Brazil Presidential Election]2022 10/21 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

10/21 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR OCTOBER WEEK 3

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 51.68%

(-0.29pp From 10/20 ’22, +6.81pp From Last Election)

Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 48.32%

(+0.29pp From 10/20 ’22, -6.81pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 10/21 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 15 polling data(total 30,546 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/12 and 10/19 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

globe-elections-un-brazil-presidential-election-polling-follower-2022.10-21Download

[2022 Brazil Presidential Election]Globe Elections UN Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

[Brazil Presidential Election]2022 10/20 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

10/20 ’22 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO FOR OCTOBER WEEK 3

_DATA

-Vote Share Projection

Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 51.97%

(-0.04pp From 10/19 ’22, +7.10pp From Last Election)

Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 48.03%

(+0.04pp From 10/19 ’22, -7.10pp From Last Election)

_TREND

_AGE

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 10/20 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 14 polling data(total 30,160 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/11 and 10/18 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling data as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

globe-elections-un-brazil-presidential-election-polling-follower-2022.10-20Download

[2022 Brazil Presidential Election]Globe Elections UN Polling Follower / Tracker / Average