Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]5/4 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

5/4 ’23 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO

_DATA

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 47.82%

(+1.31pp From 5/3 ’23, -4.97pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 45.38%

(-0.35pp From 5/3 ’23, -1.83pp From Last Election)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 4.48%

(-0.90pp From 5/3 ’23, NEW PARTY)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 2.32%

(-0.06pp From 5/3 ’23, NEW PARTY)

_TREND

Erdoğan expands his lead for the second day.

But remains a very close race between Erdoğan & Kılıçdaroğlu.

_AGE

Total = Erdoğan 47.82%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.38%, İnce 4.48%, Oğan 2.32% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

18~29 = Kılıçdaroğlu 47.89%, Erdoğan 45.44%, İnce 4.44%, Oğan 2.23% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

30~44 = Erdoğan 48.41%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.25%, İnce 4.02%, Oğan 2.32% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

45+ = Erdoğan 48.88%, Kılıçdaroğlu 43.88%, İnce 4.86%, Oğan 2.38% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 5/4 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 20 polling data(76,328 unweighted / 61,744 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/25 and 5/2. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

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Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]5/3 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

5/3 ’23 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO

_DATA

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 46.51%

(-0.22pp From 5/2 ’23, -6.28pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 45.73%

(-1.00pp From 5/2 ’23, -1.48pp From Last Election)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 5.38%

(+1.28pp From 5/2 ’23, NEW PARTY)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 2.38%

(-0.06pp From 5/2 ’23, NEW PARTY)

_TREND

Erdoğan retakes the lead just in another single day. 4th flip in 5 days.

Remaining a very close race between Erdoğan & Kılıçdaroğlu.

_AGE

Total = Erdoğan 46.51%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.73%, İnce 5.38%, Oğan 2.38% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

18~29 = Kılıçdaroğlu 48.22%, Erdoğan 44.17%, İnce 5.33%, Oğan 2.28% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

30~44 = Erdoğan 47.14%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.65%, İnce 4.83%, Oğan 2.38% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

45+ = Erdoğan 47.53%, Kılıçdaroğlu 44.20%, İnce 5.84%, Oğan 2.43% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 5/3 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 18 polling data(2,176,869 unweighted / 56,053 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/23 and 4/30. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]5/2 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

5/2 ’23 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO

_DATA

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 46.73%

(+0.37pp From 5/1 ’22, -0.48pp From Last Election)

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 46.73%

(-0.25pp From 5/1 ’22, -6.06pp From Last Election)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 4.10%

(-0.13pp From 5/1 ’22, NEW PARTY)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 2.44%

(+0.01pp From 5/1 ’22, NEW PARTY)

_TREND

Kılıçdaroğlu retakes the lead just in a single day.

Remaining a very close race between Erdoğan & Kılıçdaroğlu.

_AGE

Total = Kılıçdaroğlu 46.73%, Erdoğan 46.73%, İnce 4.23%, Oğan 2.43% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

18~29 = Kılıçdaroğlu 49.25%, Erdoğan 44.34%, İnce 4.06%, Oğan 2.35% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

30~44 = Erdoğan 47.30%, Kılıçdaroğlu 46.58%, İnce 3.67%, Oğan 2.45% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

45+ = Erdoğan 47.81%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.23%, İnce 4.45%, Oğan 2.51% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 5/2 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 15 polling data(2,162,359 unweighted / 43,401 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/23 and 4/30. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]5/1 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

5/1 ’23 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO

(Out In Hours)

_DATA

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 46.98%

(+0.22pp From 4/30 ’22, -5.81pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 46.36%

(-0.56pp From 4/30 ’22, -0.85pp From Last Election)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 4.23%

(+0.25pp From 4/30 ’22, NEW PARTY)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 2.43%

(+0.09pp From 4/30 ’22, NEW PARTY)

_TREND

Erdoğan retakes the lead just in 2 days.

Remaining a very close race between Erdoğan & Kılıçdaroğlu.

_AGE

Total = Erdoğan 46.98%,Kılıçdaroğlu 46.36%, İnce 4.23%, Oğan 2.43% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

18~29 = Kılıçdaroğlu 48.88%, Erdoğan 44.60%, İnce 4.19%, Oğan 2.33% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

30~44 = Erdoğan 47.56%, Kılıçdaroğlu 46.22%, İnce 3.79%, Oğan 2.43% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

45+ = Erdoğan 48.05%, Kılıçdaroğlu 44.86%, İnce 4.60%, Oğan 2.49% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 5/1 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 13 polling data(2,159,564 unweighted / 37,096 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/22 and 4/29. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]4/30 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

4/30 ’23 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO

_DATA

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 46.92%

(-1.32pp From 4/29 ’22, -0.29pp From Last Election)

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 46.76%

(+0.73pp From 4/29 ’22, -6.03pp From Last Election)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 3.98%

(+0.43pp From 4/29 ’22, NEW PARTY)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 2.34%

(+0.16pp From 4/29 ’22, NEW PARTY)

_TREND

Kemal maintains his significantly reduced lead. Day 2.

Remaining a very close race between Erdoğan & Kılıçdaroğlu.

_AGE

Total = Kılıçdaroğlu 46.92%, Erdoğan 46.76%, İnce 3.98%, Oğan 2.34% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

18~29 = Kılıçdaroğlu 49.44%, Erdoğan 44.37%, İnce 3.94%, Oğan 2.25% <MİLLET EDGE>

30~44 = Erdoğan 47.32%, Kılıçdaroğlu 46.77%, İnce 3.56%, Oğan 2.35% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

45+ = Erdoğan 47.85%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.42%, İnce 4.32%, Oğan 2.41% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 4/30 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 13 polling data(67,049 unweighted / 36,828 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/21 and 4/28. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

America

[Paraguay Presidential Election]2023 EXCEL Projection / Prediction / Forecast

EXCEL ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s EXCEL Projection in Paraguay, we are projecting it is Extremely Close between Santiago Peña & Efraín Alegre, and Payo Cubas is at strong third.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Projection Without Undeciders

Santiago Peña(ANR / Right-wing) : 37.73%

(-11.23pp From Last Election)

Efraín Alegre(CN2023 / Lean-Left) : 37.59%

(-8.04pp From Last Election)

Payo Cubas(PCN / Center-Right Big Tent) : 19.19%

(NEW PARTY)

Euclides Acevedo(MNR / Center-Left) : 4.75%

(+1.34pp From Last Election)

José Chilavert(PJ / Big Tent) : 0.73%

(NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.01%

(-1.99pp From Last Election)

-Projection With Undeciders

Santiago Peña(ANR / Right-wing) : 39.33%

(-9.63pp From Last Election)

Efraín Alegre(CN2023 / Lean-Left) : 38.63%

(-7.00pp From Last Election)

Payo Cubas(PCN / Center-Right Big Tent) : 16.32%

(NEW PARTY)

Euclides Acevedo(MNR / Center-Left) : 4.92%

(+1.51pp From Last Election)

José Chilavert(PJ / Big Tent) : 0.80%

(NEW PARTY)

Other Candidates(OTH / Mixed) : 0.00%

(-2.00pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Paraguay Presidential Election EXCEL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 11 polling data(15,162 unweighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/11 and 4/26. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]4/29 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

4/29 ’23 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO

_DATA

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 48.24%

(+1.67pp From 4/28 ’22, +1.03pp From Last Election)

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 46.03%

(-1.56pp From 4/28 ’22, -6.76pp From Last Election)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 3.55%

(-0.05pp From 4/28 ’22, NEW PARTY)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 2.18%

(-0.06pp From 4/28 ’22, NEW PARTY)

_TREND

Kemal retakes his lead in 14 days.

Back to a very close race between Erdoğan & Kılıçdaroğlu.

_AGE

Total = Kılıçdaroğlu 48.24%, Erdoğan 46.03%, İnce 3.55%, Oğan 2.18% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

18~29 = Kılıçdaroğlu 50.78%, Erdoğan 43.62%, İnce 3.51%, Oğan 2.09% <MİLLET EDGE>

30~44 = Kılıçdaroğlu 48.07%, Erdoğan 46.57%, İnce 3.18%, Oğan 2.18% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

45+ = Erdoğan 47.15%, Kılıçdaroğlu 46.75%, İnce 3.86%, Oğan 2.24% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 4/29 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 15 polling data(66,376 unweighted / 30,689 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/20 and 4/27. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]4/18 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average

4/18 ’23 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO

_DATA

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 46.81%

(+0.39pp From 4/16 ’22, -5.98pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 45.92%

(-0.25pp From 4/16 ’22, -1.29pp From Last Election)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 5.51%

(-0.12pp From 4/16 ’22, NEW PARTY)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 1.76%

(-0.02pp From 4/16 ’22, NEW PARTY)

_TREND

Erdoğan maintains his lead for 2 days.

Remaining a very close race between Erdoğan & Kılıçdaroğlu.

_AGE

Total = Erdoğan 46.81%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.92%, İnce 5.51%, Oğan 1.76% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

18~29 = Kılıçdaroğlu 48.42%, Erdoğan 44.44%, İnce 5.45%, Oğan 1.69% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

30~44 = Erdoğan 47.45%, Kılıçdaroğlu 45.84%, İnce 4.95%, Oğan 1.76% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

45+ = Erdoğan 47.83%, Kılıçdaroğlu 44.39%, İnce 5.98%, Oğan 1.80% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 4/18 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 7 polling data(34,599 unweighted / 31,222 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/8 and 4/15. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

Asia, SPECIAL - 2023 TR Presidential Election

[Turkey Presidential Election]4/16 Polling Follower / Tracker / Average


4/16 ’23 POLLING FOLLOWER

_LATEST VIDEO

_DATA

Recep Erdoğan(CUMHAR / Right-wing) : 46.42%

(+1.77pp From 4/15 ’22, -6.37pp From Last Election)

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu(MİLLET / Center-Left) : 46.17%

(-1.24pp From 4/15 ’22, -1.04pp From Last Election)

Muharrem İnce(MP / Center-Left Big Tent) : 5.63%

(-0.46pp From 4/15 ’22, NEW PARTY)

Sinan Oğan(ATA / Far-Right) : 1.78%

(-0.07pp From 4/15 ’22, NEW PARTY)

_TREND

Erdoğan takes back the lead again in one week time.

Remaining as a close race between Erdoğan & Kılıçdaroğlu.

_AGE

Total = Erdoğan 46.42%, Kılıçdaroğlu 46.17%, İnce 5.63%, Oğan 1.78% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

18~29 = Kılıçdaroğlu 48.66%, Erdoğan 44.06%, İnce 5.57%, Oğan 1.71% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

30~44 = Erdoğan 47.07%, Kılıçdaroğlu 46.10%, İnce 5.05%, Oğan 1.78% <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

45+ = Erdoğan 47.44%, Kılıçdaroğlu 44.63%, İnce 6.11%, Oğan 1.82% <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 4/16 Polling Follower was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 8 polling data(39,344 unweighted / 35,155 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/7 and 4/14. Polling Follower is calculated through sample size & polling date as the presidential projection.

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

Europe, Germany

[Germany General Election]2023 April Projection / Prediction / Forecast

APRIL ’23 PROJECTION

  1. _Globe Elections UN Video
  2. _HEADLINE
  3. _SEAT PROJECTION
  4. _VOTE SHARE PROJECTION
    1. -Proportional
    2. -Constituency
  5. _FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
  6. _RESEARCH INFORMATION
  7. _Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

_Globe Elections UN Video


_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s April Projection in Germany, we are projecting that Union has an Edge over Social Democrats, Greens & Alternative. Union Parties are at first place with just over 200 seats combined and Social Dems are again under 20%. Greens continue to fall slightly, Alternative now over 100 seats & 15%. Additionally, The Left fails to take proportional seats for the first time after losing their third constituency to Greens.


_SEAT PROJECTION

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 219 Seats

(+1 From Mar ’23, +67 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 133 Seats

(+3 From Mar ’23, -73 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 115 Seats

(+2 From Mar ’23, -3 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 107 Seats

(+11 From Mar ’23, +24 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 52 Seats

(+10 From Mar ’23, -40 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 2 Seats

(-32 From Mar ’23, -37 From Last Election)

South Schleswig Voters’ Association(SSW / Big Tent) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’23, +0 From Last Election)


_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

-Proportional

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 28.56%

(-0.69pp From Mar ’23, +4.49pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 19.34%

(-0.71pp From Mar ’23, -6.40pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 16.77%

(-0.73pp From Mar ’23, +2.02pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 15.18%

(+1.02pp From Mar ’23, +4.84pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.50%

(+1.05pp From Mar ’23, -3.96pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 4.47%

(-0.38pp From Mar ’23, -0.42pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 2.24%

(+0.09pp From Mar ’23, -0.19pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 5.94%

(+0.35pp From Mar ’23, -0.38pp From Last Election)

-Constituency

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 33.39%

(-0.65pp From Mar ’23, +4.83pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 19.54%

(-0.62pp From Mar ’23, -6.85pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(GRN / Center-Left) : 15.63%

(-0.60pp From Mar ’23, +1.68pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 14.64%

(+1.05pp From Mar ’23, +4.51pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 5.62%

(+0.80pp From Mar ’23, -3.10pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 4.48%

(-0.36pp From Mar ’23, -0.50pp From Last Election)

Free Voters(FW / Lean-Right) : 2.62%

(+0.12pp From Mar ’23, -0.26pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(SON / Mixed) : 4.08%

(+0.26pp From Mar ’23, -0.31pp From Last Election)


_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS


_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Germany General Election April Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 12 polling data(28,433 unweighted / 21,140 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 3/24 and 3/31.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.


_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard