Asia, South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2023 May Projection / Prediction / Forecast

MAY ’23 PROJECTION

  1. _FULL VIDEO
  2. _HEADLINE
  3. _SEAT PROJECTION
  4. _VOTE SHARE PROJECTION
    1. -Proportional
    2. -Constituency
  5. _FULL RESULTS/DETAILS
  6. _RESEARCH INFORMATION
  7. _Global Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

_FULL VIDEO


_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that it is Democrats of Lee Jae-myung now have an Edge over People Power, led by Kim Gi-hyeon for the majority of the National Assembly.


_SEAT PROJECTION

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 175 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’23, -8 From Last Election)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 118 Seats

(+1 From Apr ’23, +12 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JUS / Center-Left) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’23, +1 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(PRO / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’23, +0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’23, -5 From Last Election)


_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

-Proportional

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 50.14%

(-0.96pp From Apr ’23, +11.05pp From Last Election)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 43.25%

(-0.04pp From Apr ’23, +1.92pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 3.88%

(+0.43pp From Apr ’23, -5.79pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 2.73%

(+0.57pp From Apr ’23, -7.18pp From Last Election)

-Constituency

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 55.07%

(-0.68pp From Apr ’23, +4.31pp From Last Election)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 41.93%

(+0.24pp From Apr ’23, -1.48pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 2.00%

(+0.23pp From Apr ’23, +0.29pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 1.00%

(+0.21pp From Apr ’23, -3.12pp From Last Election)


_FULL RESULTS/DETAILS


_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 South Korea General Election May Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects 13 polling data(15,589 unweighted / 14,584 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 4/23 and 4/30.

For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.


_Global Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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