FEBRUARY ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will hold control of both Senate & Chamber, but it is Extremely Close between Center-Left + Five Star & Center-Right in the vote level.

_SEAT PROJECTION

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 247 Seats

(+10 From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 66 Seats

(-19 From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 60 Seats

(+8 From Last Election)

Center Coalition(CX / Center) : 22 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Eurosceptic Coalition(IE / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

-By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 131 Seats

(+12 From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 65 Seats

(-1 From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 60 Seats

(+8 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 57 Seats

(-14 From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 43 Seats

(-2 From Last Election)

Third Pole(TP / Center) : 22 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 9 Seats

(-3 From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 8 Seats

(+1 From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 0 Seat

(-2 From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Left-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Sovereign & Popular Democracy(DSP / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Last Election)

_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 45.61%

(+2.48pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 21.84%

(-4.71pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.04%

(+2.87pp From Last Election)

Center Coalition(CX / Center) : 8.16%

(+0.47pp From Last Election)

Eurosceptic Coalition(IE / Big Tent) : 2.66%

(-0.37pp From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 1.01%

(-0.37pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 2.68%

(-0.37pp From Last Election)

-By Party

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 29.41%

(+4.42pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.04%

(+2.87pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 16.32%

(-3.74pp From Last Election)

League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 8.69%

(-0.76pp From Last Election)

Third Pole(TP / Center) : 8.16%

(+0.47pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 7.15%

(-0.64pp From Last Election)

Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 3.24%

(-0.43pp From Last Election)

More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 2.28%

(-0.54pp From Last Election)

Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 1.94%

(+0.11pp From Last Election)

People’s Union(UP / Left-wing Big Tent) : 1.01%

(-0.37pp From Last Election)

Sovereign & Popular Democracy(DSP / Big Tent) : 0.72%

(-0.48pp From Last Election)

Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 0.36%

(-0.54pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 2.68%

(-0.37pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 Italy General Election February Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 11 polling data(17,432 unweighted / 15,165 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 1/24 and 1/31.

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.