Asia, South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2023 January Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JANUARY ’23 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s January Projection in South Korea, we are projecting that it is Extremely Call between Democrats, led by Lee Jae-myung & People Power, led by Chung Jin-suk for the control of the next National Assembly.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 150 Seats

(-63 From Dec ’22, -33 From Last Election)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 140 Seats

(+58 From Dec ’22, +34 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JUS / Center-Left) : 10 Seats

(+5 From Dec ’22, +4 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(PRO / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Dec ’22, +0 From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Dec ’22, -5 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection (Proportional)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 46.88%

(+5.97pp From Dec ’22, +5.55pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 46.81%

(-5.80pp From Dec ’22, +7.72pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 4.26%

(+0.28pp From Dec ’22, -5.41pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 2.05%

(-0.45pp From Dec ’22, -7.86pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection (Constituency)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 51.50%

(-8.88pp From Dec ’22, +0.74pp From Last Election)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 45.54%

(+7.56pp From Dec ’22, +2.13pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 2.21%

(+1.47pp From Dec ’22, +0.50pp From Last Election)

Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 0.75%

(-0.15pp From Dec ’22, -3.37pp From Last Election)

_FULL RESULTS/DETAILS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2023 South Korea General Election Jaunuary Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 18 polling data(total 19,664 unweighted / 19,164 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 12/24 and 12/31.

For each of the polling contents, refer to National Election Survey Deliberation Commission homepage(http://www.nesdc.go.kr).

Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.

_Global Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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