America, Brazil, SPECIAL - 2022 BR Presidential Election

[Brazil Presidential Election]2022 2nd Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast


_Globe Elections UN Video


According to Globe Elections UN’s 2nd Round FINAL Projection in Brazil, we are projecting it is now Extremely Close between former president Lula da Silva and incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro for the next presidency.


-Vote Share Projection

Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 50.50%

(-0.81pp From 10/29 ’22, +5.63pp From Last Election)

Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 49.50%

(+0.81pp From 10/29 ’22, -5.63pp From Last Election)


-Key Races

MG(Minas Gerais) – ​LULA +2.74pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

ES(Espírito Santo) – ​BOLSONARO +7.46pp (POLL BASE – LULA +0.20pp)

AM(Amazonas) – ​LULA +8.12pp

AP(Amapá) – ​LULA +8.26pp

TO(Tocantins) – ​LULA +10.70pp (POLL BASE – LULA +8.10pp)

RS(Rio Grande do Sul) – BOLSONARO +11.78pp (POLL BASE – BOLSONARO +8.02pp)

-Other Races

MS(Mato Grosso do Sul) – ​BOLSONARO +16.22pp

GO(Goiás) – ​BOLSONARO +16.86pp

RJ(Rio de Janeiro) – ​BOLSONARO +18.10pp

PA(Pará) – ​LULA +18.12pp

SP(São Paulo) – ​BOLSONARO +18.14pp

MT(Mato Grosso) – ​BOLSONARO +18.80pp

PR(Paraná) – ​BOLSONARO +22.98pp

AL(Alagoas) – ​LULA +24.96pp

DF(Distrito Federal) – ​BOLSONARO +26.60pp

RN(Rio Grande do Norte) – ​LULA +31.76pp

EX(Exterior) – ​BOLSONARO +32.32pp

PB(Paraíba) – ​LULA +34.80pp

RR(Roraima) – ​BOLSONARO +35.76pp

RO(Rondônia) – ​BOLSONARO +37.12pp

PE(Pernambuco) – ​LULA +37.72pp

SE(Sergipe) – ​LULA +39.70pp

SC(Santa Catarina) – ​BOLSONARO +39.80pp

CE(Ceará) – ​LULA +46.54pp

AC(Acre) – ​BOLSONARO +48.06pp

BA(Bahia) – ​LULA +49.56pp

MA(Maranhão) – ​LULA +50.64pp

PI(Piauí) – ​LULA +57.80pp



2022 Brazil Presidential Election R2 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN( by GEHSC.en( &, and reflects total 23 polling data(total 120,217 unweighted / 112,040 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 10/22 and 10/29 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard


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