America, Brazil, SPECIAL - 2022 BR Presidential Election

[Brazil Presidential Election]2022 1st Round September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast


_Globe Elections UN Video


According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round September Projection in Brazil, we are projecting that former president Lula da Silva is somewhat ahead but it is still a Key Race between him and incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro.


-Vote Share Projection

Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 47.62%

(+15.87pp From Last Election)

Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 39.10%

(-8.19pp From Last Election)

Ciro Gomes(PDT / Center-Left) : 8.60%

(-3.87pp From Last Election)

Simone Tebet(MDB / Center) : 3.59%

(-3.18pp From Last Election)

Vera Lúcia(PSTU / Left-wing) : 0.37%

(+0.32pp From Last Election)

Luiz D’Avila(NOVO / Center-Right) : 0.32%

(-2.18pp From Last Election)

José Eymael(DC / Right-wing) : 0.21%

(+0.17pp From Last Election)

Sofia Manzano(PCB / Far-Left) : 0.07%


Leo Péricles(UP / Far-Left) : 0.05%


Padre Kelmon(PTB / Far-Right) : 0.04%


Soraya Thronicke(UNIÃO / Center-Right) : 0.03%



-Key Races

RS(Rio Grande do Sul) – LULA +1.50pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

SP(São Paulo) – ​BOLSONARO +7.13pp (POLL BASE – BOLSONARO +1.46pp)

RJ(Rio de Janeiro) – ​BOLSONARO +10.00pp (POLL BASE – BOLSONARO +4.15pp)

MG(Minas Gerais) – ​LULA +10.34pp (SWING BASE – LULA +3.99pp)

PR(Paraná) – ​BOLSONARO +10.39pp (POLL BASE – BOLSONARO +4.40pp)

-Other Races

MS(Mato Grosso do Sul) – ​BOLSONARO +12.31pp

TO(Tocantins) – ​LULA +14.40pp

ES(Espírito Santo) – ​BOLSONARO +14.93pp

AM(Amazonas) – ​LULA +15.00pp

AP(Amapá) – ​LULA +15.16pp

GO(Goiás) – ​BOLSONARO +15.91pp

DF(Distrito Federal) – ​BOLSONARO +16.98pp

MT(Mato Grosso) – ​BOLSONARO +18.70pp

EX(Exterior) – ​BOLSONARO +19.28pp

AL(Alagoas) – ​LULA +23.75pp

PA(Pará) – ​LULA +25.07pp

RO(Rondônia) – ​BOLSONARO +25.67pp

SC(Santa Catarina) – ​BOLSONARO +26.93pp

AC(Acre) – ​BOLSONARO +27.71pp

RR(Roraima) – ​BOLSONARO +29.91pp

PB(Paraíba) – ​LULA +31.61pp

PE(Pernambuco) – ​LULA +32.58pp

RN(Rio Grande do Norte) – ​LULA +32.68pp

SE(Sergipe) – ​LULA +37.82pp

CE(Ceará) – ​LULA +41.89pp (VS CIRO)

BA(Bahia) – ​LULA +46.77pp

MA(Maranhão) – ​LULA +46.85pp

PI(Piauí) – ​LULA +56.31pp



2022 Brazil Presidential Election R1 September Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN( by GEHSC.en( &, and reflects total 11 polling data(total 28,517 unweighted / 21,416 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 8/23 and 8/30 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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