America, Brazil, SPECIAL - 2022 BR Presidential Election

[Brazil Presidential Election]2022 1st Round September Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

SEPTEMBER ’22 R1 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round September Projection in Brazil, we are projecting that former president Lula da Silva is somewhat ahead but it is still a Key Race between him and incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro.

_NATIONAL PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Lula da Silva(FEB / Left-wing) : 47.62%

(+15.87pp From Last Election)

Jair Bolsonaro(PL / Right-wing) : 39.10%

(-8.19pp From Last Election)

Ciro Gomes(PDT / Center-Left) : 8.60%

(-3.87pp From Last Election)

Simone Tebet(MDB / Center) : 3.59%

(-3.18pp From Last Election)

Vera Lúcia(PSTU / Left-wing) : 0.37%

(+0.32pp From Last Election)

Luiz D’Avila(NOVO / Center-Right) : 0.32%

(-2.18pp From Last Election)

José Eymael(DC / Right-wing) : 0.21%

(+0.17pp From Last Election)

Sofia Manzano(PCB / Far-Left) : 0.07%

(NEW PARTY)

Leo Péricles(UP / Far-Left) : 0.05%

(NEW PARTY)

Padre Kelmon(PTB / Far-Right) : 0.04%

(NEW PARTY)

Soraya Thronicke(UNIÃO / Center-Right) : 0.03%

(NEW PARTY)

_STATE PROJECTIONS (POLL+SWING)

-Key Races

RS(Rio Grande do Sul) – LULA +1.50pp <EXTREMELY CLOSE>

SP(São Paulo) – ​BOLSONARO +7.13pp (POLL BASE – BOLSONARO +1.46pp)

RJ(Rio de Janeiro) – ​BOLSONARO +10.00pp (POLL BASE – BOLSONARO +4.15pp)

MG(Minas Gerais) – ​LULA +10.34pp (SWING BASE – LULA +3.99pp)

PR(Paraná) – ​BOLSONARO +10.39pp (POLL BASE – BOLSONARO +4.40pp)

-Other Races

MS(Mato Grosso do Sul) – ​BOLSONARO +12.31pp

TO(Tocantins) – ​LULA +14.40pp

ES(Espírito Santo) – ​BOLSONARO +14.93pp

AM(Amazonas) – ​LULA +15.00pp

AP(Amapá) – ​LULA +15.16pp

GO(Goiás) – ​BOLSONARO +15.91pp

DF(Distrito Federal) – ​BOLSONARO +16.98pp

MT(Mato Grosso) – ​BOLSONARO +18.70pp

EX(Exterior) – ​BOLSONARO +19.28pp

AL(Alagoas) – ​LULA +23.75pp

PA(Pará) – ​LULA +25.07pp

RO(Rondônia) – ​BOLSONARO +25.67pp

SC(Santa Catarina) – ​BOLSONARO +26.93pp

AC(Acre) – ​BOLSONARO +27.71pp

RR(Roraima) – ​BOLSONARO +29.91pp

PB(Paraíba) – ​LULA +31.61pp

PE(Pernambuco) – ​LULA +32.58pp

RN(Rio Grande do Norte) – ​LULA +32.68pp

SE(Sergipe) – ​LULA +37.82pp

CE(Ceará) – ​LULA +41.89pp (VS CIRO)

BA(Bahia) – ​LULA +46.77pp

MA(Maranhão) – ​LULA +46.85pp

PI(Piauí) – ​LULA +56.31pp

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_RESEARCH INFORMATION

2022 Brazil Presidential Election R1 September Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 11 polling data(total 28,517 unweighted / 21,416 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 8/23 and 8/30 and reported on Superior Electoral Court(TSE)’s Surveys/Pesquisas Page. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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