[Kenya Presidential Election]2022 1st Round FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast


_Globe Elections UN Video


According to Globe Elections UN’s 1st Round FINAL Projection in Kenya, we are projecting that it is Extremely Close Raila Odinga & William Ruto, with the projected margin being historically narrow.


-Vote Share Projection (Presidential)

Raila Odinga(AZIMIO / Center-Left) : 48.98%

(+4.16pp From Last Election)

William Ruto(KK / Center-Right) : 48.93%

(-5.34pp From Last Election)

George Wajackoyah(RPK / Big Tent) : 1.78%


David Mwaure(AP / Left-wing) : 0.31%


-Vote Share Projection (General)

Declaration Of Unity(AZIMIO / Center Big Tent) : 49.06%

(+18.95pp From Last Election)

Kenya First(KK / Center-Right) : 47.42%

(+0.13pp From Last Election)

Roots Party(RPK / Big Tent) : 1.98%


Other Parties(OTH / Mixed) : 1.54%

(-21.06pp From Last Election)


-Key Races

NR(Narok) – ODINGA +2.64pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

DI(Diaspora) – ODINGA +2.67pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

NY(Nyamira) – ODINGA +4.00pp <TOO CLOSE TO CALL>

KJ(Kajiado) – RUTO +5.39pp

WA(Wajir) – ODINGA +6.19pp

SA(Samburu) – ODINGA +8.82pp

IS(Isiolo) – ODINGA +9.44pp

-Other Races

LM(Lamu) – ODINGA +11.06pp

NA(Nairobi) – ODINGA +11.52pp

GA(Garissa) – ODINGA +11.96pp

TR(Tana River) – ODINGA +15.57pp

TU(Turkana) – ODINGA +17.81pp

TR(Trans Nzoia) – ODINGA +18.56pp

KS(Kisii) – ODINGA +20.58pp

WP(West Pokot) – RUTO +20.78pp

BG(Bungoma) – ODINGA +44.17pp

MO(Mombasa) – ODINGA +47.46pp

UG(Uasin Gishu) – RUTO +47.49pp

TT(Taita Taveta) – ODINGA +49.78pp

MD(Mandera) – RUTO +52.99pp

KW(Kwale) – ODINGA +56.46pp

MS(Marsabit) – RUTO + 61.97pp

NK(Nakuru) – RUTO +63.83pp

BA(Baringo) – RUTO +63.84pp

KT(Kitui) – ODINGA +64.79pp

MC(Machakos) – ODINGA +67.21pp

ND(Nandi) – RUTO +68.66pp

BO(Bomet) – RUTO +69.34pp

KL(Kilifi) – ODINGA +71.73pp

ME(Meru) – RUTO +72.44pp

LK(Laikipia) – RUTO +74.20pp

MI(Migori) – ODINGA +74.76pp

BS(Busia) – ODINGA +77.39pp

KK(Kakamega) – ODINGA +78.47pp

EB(Embu) – RUTO +79.44pp

KA(Kiambu) – RUTO +81.73pp

VI(Vihiga) – ODINGA +82.07pp

TH(Tharaka Nithi) – RUTO +82.25pp

KE(Kericho) – RUTO +82.52pp

MK(Makueni) – ODINGA +84.13pp

EM(Elgeyo Marakwet) – RUTO +86.60pp

MU(Muranga) – RUTO +94.43pp

KR(Kirinyaga) – RUTO +95.97pp

NE(Nyeri) – RUTO +96.30pp

KM(Kisumu) – ODINGA +96.33pp

NA(Nyandarua) – RUTO +97.03pp

SI(Siaya) – ODINGA +98.56pp

HB(Homa Bay) – ODINGA +99.00pp



2022 Kenya Presidential Election R1 FINAL Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN( by GEHSC.en( &, and reflects total 12 polling data(total 72,658 unweighted / 41,141 weighted sample size – presidential, total 60,253 unweighted / 32,014 weighted sample size – general) fieldwork done between 7/26 and 8/2. Presidential Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data.

_ Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard


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