South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2021 October Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

OCTOBER ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s October Projection in South Korea, People Power will have the supermajority and the Democrats will only manage to take less than 100 seats. Continuing on, People Party is at course to increase quite many seats, Justice Party is steady on the seat level but down on the vote share level, Open Democrats are expected to increase few seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From May ’21)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 222 Seats

(-2 From Sep ’21, +119 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 57 Seats

(+2 From Sep ’21, -123 From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10 Seats

(+1 From Sep ’21, +7 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 6 Seats

(-1 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Sep ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods’ Party(PPL / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Sep ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 49.58%

(+0.75pp From Sep ’21, +15.74pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 27.47%

(-0.21pp From Sep ’21, -7.72pp From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 8.85%

(+0.58pp From Sep ’21, +2.05pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 6.02%

(-0.49pp From Sep ’21, -3.65pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.17%

(-0.15pp From Sep ’21, -0.27pp From Last Election)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.13%

(+0.05pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.08%

(-0.03pp From Sep ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.70%

(-0.50pp From Sep ’21, -8.21pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 57.34%

(-0.18pp From Sep ’21, +15.88pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 40.33%

(+0.50pp From Sep ’21, -9.58pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.01%

(-0.10pp From Sep ’21, -0.70pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.33%

(-0.21pp From Sep ’21, -5.49pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 40.07%

(-0.21pp From Sep ’21, -16.13pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 59.93%

(+0.21pp From Sep ’21, +16.13pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROEJCTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 42.93%

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 38.87%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 6.54%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.64%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 3.86%

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.18%

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.11%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.87%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 42.07%

Disapproval : 57.93% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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