Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s Jul;y Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is likely to be taken by Szymon Hołownia‘s Poland 2050. Mostly due to their rise, Civic Coalition is now below 100 seats. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is now just below the 5% threshold and therefore expected to have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 164 Seats

(-17 From Jun ’21, -71 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 107 Seats

(-6 From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 88 Seats

(+12 From Jun ’21, -46 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 53 Seats

(+9 From Jun ’21, +42 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 41 Seats

(-1 From Jun ’21, -8 From Last Election)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 32.53%

(-2.73pp From Jun ’21, -11.06pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 22.24%

(-2.48pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 19.35%

(+3.39pp From Jun ’21, -7.98pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 11.05%

(+2.03pp From Jun ’21, +4.34pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 8.24%

(-1.03pp From Jun ’21, -4.33pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.81%

(+0.50pp From Jun ’21, -3.75pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.73%

(-0.09pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.95%

(+0.41pp From Jun ’21, -0.15pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.27%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.91%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 19.06%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.06%

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 8.49%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.96%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.76%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.49%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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