South Korea

[South Korea General Election]2021 July Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JULY ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s July Projection in South Korea, People Power will have the supermajority and the Democrats will only manage to take much fewer than 100 seats. Continuing on, People Party is on the course to increase quite many seats. Justice Party is up on the seat level but not on the vote share level and Open Democrats will also gain seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From May ’21)

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 224 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +121 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 54 Seats

(+1 From Jun ’21, -127 From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +7 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 7 Seats

(-1 From Jun ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Jun ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Jun ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 47.74%

(+1.31pp From Jun ’21, +13.90pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 26.83%

(+0.54pp From Jun ’21, -8.36pp From Last Election)

People Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 9.08%

(+0.51pp From Jun ’21, +2.28pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 6.96%

(-1.20pp From Jun ’21, -2.71pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.67%

(+0.57pp From Jun ’21, +0.23pp From Last Election)

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.05%

(-0.36pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.04%

(-0.25pp From Jun ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.63%

(-0.10pp From Jun ’21, -7.28pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 57.56%

(+0.57pp From Jun ’21, +16.10pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 39.50%

(+0.09pp From Jun ’21, -10.41pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.21%

(-0.24pp From Jun ’21, -0.50pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.73%

(-0.42pp From Jun ’21, -5.09pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 41.23%

(+2.21pp From Jun ’21, -14.97pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 58.77%

(-2.21pp From Jun ’21, +14.97pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROEJCTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 41.64%

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 38.23%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 6.75%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.23%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 4.48%

Transition Korea(TK / Center) : 0.07%

Basic Income Party(BIP / Center-Left) : 0.06%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.54%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 43.25%

Disapproval : 56.75% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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