Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 June Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JUNE ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is likely to be taken by Poland 2050, a new party led by Szymon Hołownia. Due to Poland 2050’s rise, Civic Coalition is now far below 100 seats. On the other hand, Confederation is significantly up and The Left is now eventually down. However, Polish Coalition is currently below the 5% threshold and therefore won’t be able to obtain any seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 181 Seats

(+16 From May ’21, -54 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 113 Seats

(+10 From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 76 Seats

(-12 From May ’21, -58 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 44 Seats

(-5 From May ’21, +33 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 42 Seats

(-13 From May ’21, -7 From Last Election)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+1 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From May ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.26%

(+2.64pp From May ’21, -8.33pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 24.72%

(+3.07pp From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 15.96%

(-2.96pp From May ’21, -11.37pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 9.27%

(-1.34pp From May ’21, -3.30pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.12%

(-2.22pp From May ’21, +2.31pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.31%

(+0.48pp From May ’21, -4.25pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.82%

(+0.20pp From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.54%

(+0.13pp From May ’21, -0.56pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 37.91%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 24.15%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 15.59%

The Left(LEWICA / Center-Left) : 9.47%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 7.35%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.41%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.84%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.28%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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