Italy

[Italy General Election]2021 June Globe Elections UN Projection / Prediction / Forecast

JUNE ’21 PROJECTION

_Globe Elections UN Video

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s June Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will gain the majority of both chambers likely, after being ahead of Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement by little less than 10%p. But as the situation narrowed down, it is now characterized as Key Race.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 52.13%

(-1.92pp From May ’21, +15.13pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 43.36%

(+1.13pp From May ’21, -14.62pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 4.51%

(+0.79pp From May ’21, -0.51pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 52.13%

(-1.92pp From May ’21, +15.13pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 22.19%

(+0.21pp From May ’21, +0.29pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.35%

(+0.69pp From May ’21, -14.33pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 2.82%

(+0.23pp From May ’21, -0.58pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 4.51%

(+0.79pp From May ’21, -0.51pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 24.35%

(-3.40pp From May ’21, +7.00pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 21.85%

(+1.34pp From May ’21, +17.50pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 18.35%

(+0.69pp From May ’21, -14.33pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 15.15%

(+0.33pp From May ’21, -3.61pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 5.85%

(+0.23pp From May ’21, -8.15pp From Last Election)

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.08%

(+0.04pp From May ’21, +1.52pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 2.82%

(+0.23pp From May ’21, -0.58pp From Last Election)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.78%

(-0.08pp From May ’21, NEW PARTY)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.18%

(-0.09pp From May ’21, +0.60pp From Last Election)

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.08%

(-0.09pp From May ’21, -1.22pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 4.51%

(+0.79pp From May ’21, -0.51pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 48.42%

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 46.85%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 4.73%

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 48.42%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 27.28%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 16.28%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 3.29%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 4.73%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 21.73%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 19.23%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 19.11%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.28%

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.48%

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.28%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 3.29%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.26%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.51%

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.10%

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 4.73%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

_Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard

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