_HEADLINE
According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are likely to be retaining majority in the next parliament with a majority of 28 seats. Also, the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 346 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+AP+SDLP+GRN)‘s 297 by 49.
_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION
-Seat Projection
Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 339 Seats
(-3 From Apr ’21, -26 From Last Election)
Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 226 Seats
(+4 From Apr ’21, +23 From Last Election)
Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 53 Seats
(-1 From Apr ’21, +5 From Last Election)
Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats
(+1 From Apr ’21, -3 From Last Election)
Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats
(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)
Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 6 Seats
(+0 From Apr ’21, -2 From Last Election)
Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 5 Seats
(-1 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)
Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 2 Seats
(+0 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)
Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats
(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)
Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat
(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)
Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 1 Seat
(+0 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)
Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)
UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)
-Vote Share Projection
Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.16%
(+0.09pp From Apr ’21, -1.47pp From Last Election)
Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.15%
(+0.42pp From Apr ’21, +2.99pp From Last Election)
Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.86%
(+0.27pp From Apr ’21, -4.97pp From Last Election)
Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.22%
(+0.22pp From Apr ’21, +2.54pp From Last Election)
Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.22%
(-0.22pp From Apr ’21, +0.34pp From Last Election)
Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.35%
(-0.06pp From Apr ’21, -0.66pp From Last Election)
Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.91%
(-0.82pp From Apr ’21, +0.43pp From Last Election)
UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.40%
(-0.73pp From Apr ’21, +0.34pp From Last Election)
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.73%
(+0.83pp From Apr ’21, +0.11pp From Last Election)
_POLL BASE PROJECTION
-Vote Share Projection
Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.24%
Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.41%
Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.57%
Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.26%
Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.25%
Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.06%
Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.92%
UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.41%
Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.88%
_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gn6n8aOQiDOZ9sFV2D_oHt3gllKZ8KJy47CFIVlrZ3c/
_Globe Elections UN Video
_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard
: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/
