United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are likely to be retaining majority in the next parliament with a majority of 28 seats. Also, the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 346 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+AP+SDLP+GRN)‘s 297 by 49.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 339 Seats

(-3 From Apr ’21, -26 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 226 Seats

(+4 From Apr ’21, +23 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 53 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’21, +5 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(+1 From Apr ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 6 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 5 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.16%

(+0.09pp From Apr ’21, -1.47pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.15%

(+0.42pp From Apr ’21, +2.99pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.86%

(+0.27pp From Apr ’21, -4.97pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.22%

(+0.22pp From Apr ’21, +2.54pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.22%

(-0.22pp From Apr ’21, +0.34pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.35%

(-0.06pp From Apr ’21, -0.66pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.91%

(-0.82pp From Apr ’21, +0.43pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.40%

(-0.73pp From Apr ’21, +0.34pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.73%

(+0.83pp From Apr ’21, +0.11pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 42.24%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.41%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.57%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.26%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.25%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.06%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Left-wing) : 0.92%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.41%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.88%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gn6n8aOQiDOZ9sFV2D_oHt3gllKZ8KJy47CFIVlrZ3c/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

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