Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is likely to be taken by Poland 2050, a new party led by Szymon Hołownia. Mostly due to Poland 2050’s rise, Civic Coalition is now below 100 seats. On the other hand, The Left is up on the seat level but not on the vote level, and Confederation is significantly up. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore won’t have any seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 165 Seats

(+3 From Apr ’21, -70 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 103 Seats

(-3 From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 88 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, -46 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 55 Seats

(+0 From Apr ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 49 Seats

(+1 From Apr ’21, +38 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Apr ’21, -1 From Last Election)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 32.62%

(+2.38pp From Apr ’21, -10.97pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.65%

(+0.16pp From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 18.92%

(+0.44pp From Apr ’21, -8.41pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 11.34%

(+0.63pp From Apr ’21, +4.53pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.61%

(+0.42pp From Apr ’21, -1.96pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.83%

(-1.07pp From Apr ’21, -4.73pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.62%

(-1.38pp From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.41%

(-1.58pp From Apr ’21, -0.69pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 35.27%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.26%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 18.59%

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.91%

Confederation Freedom & Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.18%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 3.94%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.64%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.21%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wlnJhq1QWvIa7OS0FEXUk8N5Z5P7_eVIPsTEg89_FsM/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s