Germany

[Germany Federal Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Germany, we are projecting that The Greens will now likely be the largest group in the next Bundestag as they make enormous gains. Oppositely, the Union parties have crashed down again and will be behind at second even with their strong grounds on individual constituencies. On the other hand, the Social Democrats have just less than 100 seats mainly due to the rise of The Greens. Alternative for Germany, Free Democrats are now steady and The Left are down slightly from the last election.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (*Including Both Leveling Seats & Overhang Seats From Apr ’21)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 186 Seats

(+4 From Apr ’21, +119 From Last Election)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSU / Center-Right) : 178 Seats

(-30 From Apr ’21, -80 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 90 Seats

(-4 From Apr ’21, -63 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 81 Seats

(+2 From Apr ’21, -13 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 72 Seats

(+12 From Apr ’21, -8 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 45 Seats

(+1 From Apr ’21, -24 From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 29.17%

(+0.63pp From Apr ’21, +20.23pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 21.29%

(-2.13pp From Apr ’21, -11.46pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.12%

(-1.03pp From Apr ’21, -7.39pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 12.18%

(+0.55pp From Apr ’21, -0.46pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.26%

(+1.93pp From Apr ’21, +0.51pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.82%

(+0.26pp From Apr ’21, -2.42pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.16%

(-0.21pp From Apr ’21, +1.16pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 27.68%

(+0.94pp From Apr ’21, +19.67pp From Last Election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 25.49%

(-2.20pp From Apr ’21, -11.77pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 16.69%

(-1.08pp From Apr ’21, -7.95pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.69%

(+0.67pp From Apr ’21, +0.23pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.77%

(+1.41pp From Apr ’21, +0.77pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.68%

(+0.34pp From Apr ’21, -1.87pp From Last Election)

Others(SON / Mixed) : 4.00%

(-0.08pp From Apr ’21, +0.92pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 25.44% 

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 23.32% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.73% 

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 11.57%

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.05%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.82%

Others(SON / Mixed) : 6.16%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SbKCbFUUy4CFHNovpuAkZpWY8YYh7vDNoQv0m6wpQOM/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

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