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[South Korea General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in South Korea, People’s Power Party will have the supermajority and the Democrats will only manage to take much fewer than 100 seats. Continuing on, People Party is on the course to increase many seats. Justice Party is up on the seat level but not on the vote share level. Open Democrats will also gain seats, but Progressive Party and People’s Livelihood Party will not.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (Projections Made For All Constituencies From May ’21)

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 224 Seats

(+61 From Apr ’21, +121 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 52 Seats

(-50 From Apr ’21, -128 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 11 Seats

(-6 From Apr ’21, +8 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 8 Seats

(-3 From Apr ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5 Seats

(-1 From Apr ’21, +2 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 0 Seat

(-1 From Apr ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Apr ’21, -5 From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 46.47%

(-0.13pp From Apr ’21, +12.63pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 25.96%

(+0.31pp From Apr ’21, -9.23pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10.82%

(-0.87pp From Apr ’21, +4.02pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 7.68%

(-0.22pp From Apr ’21, -1.99pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 4.55%

(+0.23pp From Apr ’21, -0.89pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.52%

(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -6.39pp From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 57.32%

(+1.79pp From Apr ’21, +15.86pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 39.11%

(+1.78pp From Apr ’21, -10.80pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.37%

(+0.01pp From Apr ’21, -0.34pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.20%

(-3.58pp From Apr ’21, -4.62pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 34.40%

(-1.12pp From Apr ’21, -21.80pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 65.60%

(+1.12pp From Apr ’21, +21.80pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROEJCTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 41.07%

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 37.49%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 8.15%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.07%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 5.02%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.20%

-Presidential Approval <Moon Jae-in>

Approval : 36.28%

Disapproval : 63.72% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wMuHDlsYC8zU_8EwM8muO3_g1ugM4XbdJfVJRr0AUfk/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

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